Official MiLB/Prospects Thread

[King]

I hate this website on mobile. I've deleted my post twice now while trying to make an edit.

 

He thinks Cody Bellinger is a 45 hit 60 power 1B. Thats not worthy of being a top 15 prospect. Eloy Jimenez he has graded as an average defensive corner OF and 55 hit/70 power (80 raw) is 2 spots lower. I don't hate Cody Bellinger, but if you look at all the grades on the list as the exact outcome, you would be taking all of the above average shortstops and centerfielders below him without question.

 

He has Willie Calhoun as an average bat (55 hit, 50 power) with no or negative defensive value. This is not an MLB player at DH. Matt Chapman is regarded as an elite defensive 3B with big time power yet he only gets an honourable mention.

 

Luke Weaver being outside the top 100 is absurd. I'd have a few other guys on his honourable mention in the top 100 too.

 

Triston McKenzie comes in at 60 with 60/60/60/60 grades on fastball/changeup/curveball/command, while Kolby Allard comes in at 40 with 55/60/55/60 fastball/changeup/curveball/command.

 

Overall its pretty good.

[Laika]

I hate this website on mobile. I've deleted my post twice now while trying to make an edit.

 

He thinks Cody Bellinger is a 45 hit 60 power 1B. Thats not worthy of being a top 15 prospect. Eloy Jimenez he has graded as an average defensive corner OF and 55 hit/70 power (80 raw) is 2 spots lower. I don't hate Cody Bellinger, but if you look at all the grades on the list as the exact outcome, you would be taking all of the above average shortstops and centerfielders below him without question.

 

He has Willie Calhoun as an average bat (55 hit, 50 power) with no or negative defensive value. This is not an MLB player at DH. Matt Chapman is regarded as an elite defensive 3B with big time power yet he only gets an honourable mention.

 

Luke Weaver being outside the top 100 is absurd. I'd have a few other guys on his honourable mention in the top 100 too.

 

Triston McKenzie comes in at 60 with 60/60/60/60 grades on fastball/changeup/curveball/command, while Kolby Allard comes in at 40 with 55/60/55/60 fastball/changeup/curveball/command.

 

Overall its pretty good.

 

Bellinger is MLB ready and Eloy will be in high A. They have the same FV on the list - ranking Bellinger ahead is defensible given his proximity, even if Longerhagenbro thinks Eloy's ceiling is higher. He also has Bellinger as a present 60 defender which further smooths out the risks... theoretically a team has more leeway to let him develop in MLB because he can hold his own as a player with some defensive value.

 

Allard you could probably argue for over Triston on the simple fact that KA is a lefty.

 

In comparing Calhoun and Chapman, you underestimate the importance of a 55 hit tool. The hit tool alone can carry a player... Chapman hit .240 with a 30% K rate - he's probably a future 40 hit tool which makes his bust chance very high. Longenhagen also says Calhoun has 60 raw, so there's more than 50 pop to tap into and a 55/60 bat (his ceiling) plays anywhere.

 

Luke Weaver has a decent FB and a plus CH. Scouts have long questioned him despite the numbers for two reasons: mechanics and lack of an average breaking ball. Historically, guys with plus changeups have been able to carve up minor league hitting in a way that causes stat-scouts to overrate them. Maybe one such example would be Jeremy Hellickson.

[Jimcanuck]

Out of curiosity, have any of these that said earlier they would do Vlad for McCutchen straight up, changed their mind based on the rankings?

[Dr. Dinger]

Out of curiosity, have any of these that said earlier they would do Vlad for McCutchen straight up, changed their mind based on the rankings?

 

Yep, I have. Vlad has been anointed the next big bat by the larger baseball community, virtually overnight. His ascent has been meteoric for a teenager and I definitely didn't expect him to get this much attention this quickly.

[Laika]

Yeah Vlad is untouchable for me unless the player coming back is a stud with control, a la Donaldson two years ago. Cutch is like, 25% as valuable as that hypothetical.

[King]

Bellinger is MLB ready and Eloy will be in high A. They have the same FV on the list - ranking Bellinger ahead is defensible given his proximity, even if Longerhagenbro thinks Eloy's ceiling is higher. He also has Bellinger as a present 60 defender which further smooths out the risks... theoretically a team has more leeway to let him develop in MLB because he can hold his own as a player with some defensive value.

 

Allard you could probably argue for over Triston on the simple fact that KA is a lefty.

 

In comparing Calhoun and Chapman, you underestimate the importance of a 55 hit tool. The hit tool alone can carry a player... Chapman hit .240 with a 30% K rate - he's probably a future 40 hit tool which makes his bust chance very high. Longenhagen also says Calhoun has 60 raw, so there's more than 50 pop to tap into and a 55/60 bat (his ceiling) plays anywhere.

 

Luke Weaver has a decent FB and a plus CH. Scouts have long questioned him despite the numbers for two reasons: mechanics and lack of an average breaking ball. Historically, guys with plus changeups have been able to carve up minor league hitting in a way that causes stat-scouts to overrate them. Maybe one such example would be Jeremy Hellickson.

 

I get the arguments for each player since they all have different flaws. Even with flaws that the scouts note I'd have Weaver in the top 100.

[wamco]

Vlad Jr - low A full season Lansing.

Alford - AA New Hampshire.

SRF - could be AA or High A Dunedin. He split last year at Low A and High A and lit up High A, so it likely depends on his spring. MY personal bet is High A with a move up quick if he dominates.

Urena - AA with a quick move up if he does well.

Tellez- probably AAA

Greene - AA

Gourriel - AA

 

Cool, thanks.

 

How bout:

 

Zeuch

Harris

bichette

Maese

McGuire

Max

Woodman

Ramirez

Palacios

Borucki

Murphy

Rios

Z Jackson

Perdomo

[Jimcanuck]

Yeah Vlad is untouchable for me unless the player coming back is a stud with control, a la Donaldson two years ago. Cutch is like, 25% as valuable as that hypothetical.

 

I for one am happy Shatkins values prospects. Not like AA.

[King]

Cool, thanks.

 

How bout:

 

 

Zeuch - Lansing

Harris - Dunedin or New Hampshire

bichette - Extended or Lansing

Maese - Lansing

McGuire - Buffalo

Max - Dunedin or extended depending on health and the transition back to catcher

Woodman - Lansing

Ramirez - New Hampshire, depends on health

Palacios - Lansing

Borucki - Dunedin

Murphy - assuming Patrick, Lansing

Rios - Dunedin

Z Jackson - Lansing

Perdomo - Dunedin

[wamco]

Thanks, pretty much what I had. I had Ramirez at aaa and rios at aa , but the rest were the same

[G-Snarls]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-top-100-prospects/

 

Longenhagen's top 100 was released today.

 

24. Vlad, Jr. Guerrero, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays Video

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic

Age

18

Height

6’1

Weight

200

Bat/Throw

R/R

Tool Grades (Present/Future)

Hit

Raw Power

Game Power

Run

Fielding

Throw

35/60

60/70

40/60

40/30

40/45

60/60

Scouting Summary

I’ve spoken with several sources (both with Toronto and without) who think Guerrero will be in the big leagues before he turns 21. He has elite bat speed and power potential with surprising bat control for such a high-effort swing. His approach at the plate is, predictably, epicurean. But embedded deep within his genealogy is an ability to make this approach viable, and when Guerrero is poking at balls just a few inches above the dirt, his strength/bat speed is so good that the ball still jumps off his bat and into the gaps. At this age with this build, he’s likely ticketed for first base or an outfield corner in the future, but nobody seems to care.

[P2F]

Top 100 updated with Longenhagen's list:

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AYHdbnvRKdiWSf40UwfPj37Stm7mZKCorcZCZZzNhSY/edit?usp=sharing

[Spanky__99]

Top 100 updated with Longenhagen's list:

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AYHdbnvRKdiWSf40UwfPj37Stm7mZKCorcZCZZzNhSY/edit?usp=sharing

 

Thanks for doing this again, mate.

[P2F]

Thanks for doing this again, mate.

My pleasure!

[King]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[King]

Toronto Blue Jays

Released: RHP Starlyn Suriel, LHP Nate Abel, LHP Hunter Barnett, LHP Christian Cox, C Justin Atkinson, C Seth Conner, 2B Aaron Attaway, OF Jake Anderson, OF Kalik May

Optioned to Triple-A: RHP Chris Smith

Optioned to Double-A: SS Richard Urena, OF Anthony Alford, OF Harold Ramirez

Optioned to high Class A: LHP Ryan Borucki, OF Lourdes Gurriel

Read more at http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/minor-league-transactions-march-11-17/#pyGZSbWfj1FPsXys.99

[BJBirdy]

I'm a little surprised to see it took this long for them to finally sever ties with Jake Anderson. I sort of figured that would've happened at the end of last season.

[Atothe]

Gurriel assigned to high-A. Interesting, probably because of cold weather

[BJBirdy]

Gurriel assigned to high-A. Interesting, probably because of cold weather

 

This. My sources tell me that he'll be in New Hampshire by mid-May at the latest.

[P2F]

I'm hopeful for a 2080 top prospects list release this week. Last year, they released it March 24th. I tweeted at them yesterday for an ETA but was merely told they'd update as details become available. Edited March 22, 2017 by P2F

[P2F]

This is a pretty interesting article that debates the usefulness of the hit tool grade in prospect evaluation:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/minors-to-the-majors-hit-tool-grade-usefulness/

 

BA gave Oscar Taveras a 75 hit tool grade in 2014. Holy hell! I had totally forgotten about that.

[G-Snarls]

MLB Pipeline's Mayo on Jays prospects in camp so far:

 

http://m.bluejays.mlb.com/news/article/220472648/blue-jays-pipeline-spring-training-report/

[Spanky__99]

MLB Pipeline's Mayo on Jays prospects in camp so far:

 

http://m.bluejays.mlb.com/news/article/220472648/blue-jays-pipeline-spring-training-report/

 

Loved the content, thanks for sharing.

[Boxcar]

This is a pretty interesting article that debates the usefulness of the hit tool grade in prospect evaluation:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/minors-to-the-majors-hit-tool-grade-usefulness/

 

BA gave Oscar Taveras a 75 hit tool grade in 2014. Holy hell! I had totally forgotten about that.

 

Lol scouts.

 

This is exactly why I ignore them and scout stats. Even sss numbers are more reliable than these geezers.

 

Some of those guys who got 70 hit grades are hilarious.

[THANOS]

Loved the content, thanks for sharing.

 

I'm watching the 30 in 30 videos now, and Mayo said that Tellez is "really good defensively". That's encouraging news.

[Spanky__99]

I'm watching the 30 in 30 videos now, and Mayo said that Tellez is "really good defensively". That's encouraging news.

 

Was it on MLBN or do you have a link for it?

[Candy Maldonado]

Was it on MLBN or do you have a link for it?

 

http://m.mlb.com/tor/video/topic/220425150/v1244892583/30-clubs-in-30-days-mayo-breaks-down-the-farm-system/?c_id=tor

[THANOS]

Was it on MLBN or do you have a link for it?

 

http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/7417714/v1244892583/30-clubs-in-30-days-mayo-breaks-down-the-farm-system/?mlbtax_key=mlbn_30clubs_2010

 

There you go bro! I like what he says about Foley as well.

[Spanky__99]

http://m.mlb.com/tor/video/topic/220425150/v1245005183/30-clubs-in-30-days-bautista-on-the-upcoming-season/?c_id=tor

 

http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/7417714/v1244892583/30-clubs-in-30-days-mayo-breaks-down-the-farm-system/?mlbtax_key=mlbn_30clubs_2010

 

There you go bro! I like what he says about Foley as well.

 

Thanks.

[KingKat]

This is a pretty interesting article that debates the usefulness of the hit tool grade in prospect evaluation:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/minors-to-the-majors-hit-tool-grade-usefulness/

 

BA gave Oscar Taveras a 75 hit tool grade in 2014. Holy hell! I had totally forgotten about that.

 

That a very interesting read with a pretty damning conclusion. I'll be really interested to read his follow up pieces.