Official MiLB/Prospects Thread

[Olerud363]

Howritz is just blocked big guy, there's a reason the Birds have him playing 2nd base and LF recently. His bat should play in the MLB if he transitions well, anyone thinking he won't are being obtuse. There's always a chance.

 

If he is really bad defensively his bat probably won't play unless he hits the upper end of his projections. Guys like Olerud and Mark Grace had higher WAR then Delgado because of defense.

 

The funny thing about Money Ball, is Scott Hatteburg only worked out because his 1b defense rated good even his hitting was on the low side for 2000 era 1b men.

 

So all I am trying to say is that Howritz probably can't play defense as bad as 2023 Guerrero and still be playable, but if he is more like 2002 Hatteburg it works out. That is you believe the defensive metrics for 1b men.

 

Also Howritz being blocked is a problem the Jays made themselves. Will really suck if they just miss WC3 and meanwhile Turner and Vogelbech put up negative WAR.

[BigCecil]

Howritz is just blocked big guy, there's a reason the Birds have him playing 2nd base and LF recently. His bat should play in the MLB if he transitions well, anyone thinking he won't are being obtuse. There's always a chance.

 

Davis S is proof of this right before our eyes. I watched '23 and saw his '24 projection, but I thought it was even money he would be back in BUFF by now.

 

Instead he made some adjustments after the league adjusted to him, and has a 138 wRC+ and 1 WAR already. He brings hustle and production to our team.

[glory]

Yeah Horowitz isn't blocked. They've chosen not to use him. He's 26 with options left and the Jays would rather use those options than use him on the big league roster. I hope he's traded at the deadline for the sake of his career, assuming he isn't up with the team by then. He has an option in 2025 as well from the looks of it, so he'll be 28 by the time the Jays have to keep him on the 26 man roster.

 

Personally I don't think a 1B/DH with no power is much of an asset, but he's destroyed RHP in AAA the past two seasons, and the Jays have a logical platoon mate for him (Turner), so his path to the big leagues is right there. If that's not an option for them, then that says a lot about how they view him. Or they are scared to platoon Turner, which given their ass kissing to vetrins over the years, might be the bigger issue.

[Spanky__99]

lulz

[Laika]

Davis S is proof of this right before our eyes. I watched '23 and saw his '24 projection, but I thought it was even money he would be back in BUFF by now.

 

Instead he made some adjustments after the league adjusted to him, and has a 138 wRC+ and 1 WAR already. He brings hustle and production to our team.

 

What adjustments did DS make?

 

Everything seems the same to me. I think he has just been good since 2023 and it has carried through. The "slump" at the end of 2023 was one part random variation (flyball hitters with some whiff will slump) and some parts bad luck.

 

2023 to 2024

Swing% = same

FB% = same

Pull% = same

barrel rate = same

hard hit rate = same

maxEV = same

K%-BB% = same

 

(same meaning within like, 2 percentage points or something)

[Laika]

Yeah Horowitz isn't blocked. They've chosen not to use him. He's 26 with options left and the Jays would rather use those options than use him on the big league roster. I hope he's traded at the deadline for the sake of his career, assuming he isn't up with the team by then. He has an option in 2025 as well from the looks of it, so he'll be 28 by the time the Jays have to keep him on the 26 man roster.

 

Personally I don't think a 1B/DH with no power is much of an asset, but he's destroyed RHP in AAA the past two seasons, and the Jays have a logical platoon mate for him (Turner), so his path to the big leagues is right there. If that's not an option for them, then that says a lot about how they view him. Or they are scared to platoon Turner, which given their ass kissing to vetrins over the years, might be the bigger issue.

 

He is blocked.

 

The thing with Horwitz and guys like him is it will ALWAYS make more sense to sign an MLB guy like DV (projected 113-117 wRC+) and then keep Horwitz in AAA if he has options. Then you have two of the same guy, and you have depth.

 

If you instead put Horwitz on the big team (112-117 wRC+ projection) you won't be able to sign a guy for AAA nearly as good as Vogelbach. So your depth is worse and you don't project any better.

 

Is what it is. He is blocked but it's just because of how MLB roster rules work. Once he is out of options he will be a big leaguer somewhere. The other possibility is he slides in as an injury replacement and does so well, overperforms, then he leapfrogs the other option above him. Wally Pipp.

 

I do think they are scared to platoon Turner at this point. Maybe later this year...

[glory]

He is blocked.

 

The thing with Horwitz and guys like him is it will ALWAYS make more sense to sign an MLB guy like DV (projected 113-117 wRC+) and then keep Horwitz in AAA if he has options. Then you have two of the same guy, and you have depth.

 

If you instead put Horwitz on the big team (112-117 wRC+ projection) you won't be able to sign a guy for AAA nearly as good as Vogelbach. So your depth is worse and you don't project any better.

 

Is what it is. He is blocked but it's just because of how MLB roster rules work. Once he is out of options he will be a big leaguer somewhere. The other possibility is he slides in as an injury replacement and does so well, overperforms, then he leapfrogs the other option above him. Wally Pipp.

 

I do think they are scared to platoon Turner at this point. Maybe later this year...

 

I don't necessarily disagree with that logic, and ultimately I don't think Horowitz is going to be good enough for this to be a big deal in the grand scheme of things, but I think he was and is a more logical roster spot than a fat 0 WAR DH with no defensive or base running value. The fact that Horowitz can cosplay as a LF every now and then helps his standing as well. I just don't think he's "blocked". To me blocked would be what Moreno was with Kirk (when he was good) and Jansen on the roster. Horowitz's deal is more about options.

[BigCecil]

What adjustments did DS make?

 

Everything seems the same to me. I think he has just been good since 2023 and it has carried through. The "slump" at the end of 2023 was one part random variation (flyball hitters with some whiff will slump) and some parts bad luck.

 

2023 to 2024

Swing% = same

FB% = same

Pull% = same

barrel rate = same

hard hit rate = same

maxEV = same

K%-BB% = same

 

(same meaning within like, 2 percentage points or something)

 

I saw him interviewed about it. He raised his stance to get to the high fastball better. Felt his stance was too crouched and it was hard to get his hands through to balls at the top of the zone.

 

He was getting beat there last yr more after his hot start. He also added more of a leg kick. There are side by side videos of it on X. I would post them if I knew how LOL.

[Spanky__99]

I saw him interviewed about it. He raised his stance to get to the high fastball better. Felt his stance was too crouched and it was hard to get his hands through to balls at the top of the zone.

 

He was getting beat there last yr more after his hot start. He also added more of a leg kick. There are side by side videos of it on X. I would post them if I knew how LOL.

 

Just post the link. That'll work. Or send it to me on FB.

[mphenhef]

For what it is worth, I appreciate the Cole's notes that you added here.

[max silver]

What adjustments did DS make?

 

Everything seems the same to me. I think he has just been good since 2023 and it has carried through. The "slump" at the end of 2023 was one part random variation (flyball hitters with some whiff will slump) and some parts bad luck.

 

2023 to 2024

Swing% = same

FB% = same

Pull% = same

barrel rate = same

hard hit rate = same

maxEV = same

K%-BB% = same

 

(same meaning within like, 2 percentage points or something)

 

He's made sizeable improvements to his whiff rates. Zone contact rate has improved from 67.8% to 78.2%, and overall whiff rate has improved from 37.3% to 28%.

[Olerud363]

Personally I don't think a 1B/DH with no power is much of an asset

 

Well Rowdy Tellez hit 35 homeruns one year and wasn't much of a player, in other years hit 20 and was unplayable. Tonnes of raw power, good game power, and sucks.

 

This tripe is stupid. You don't see a lot of first basement without power because the skillset to make it work (good defense and on base skills) often enables them to play other positions.

 

This years version of Vlad is 3 WAR. .285 .385 .395, no power, OK 1b defense and walks.

 

This type of first basemen is rare, but that is different than 'not an asset'. Howritz's road to success is that he hits .280 in the majors, keeps walking and his defense scores good. If that happens (and maybe it won't) he is a good player, even without power. If he hit's .240 with bad defense, he isn't worth anything.

[Olerud363]

He is blocked.

 

The thing with Horwitz and guys like him is it will ALWAYS make more sense to sign an MLB guy like DV (projected 113-117 wRC+) and then keep Horwitz in AAA if he has options. Then you have two of the same guy, and you have depth.

 

If you instead put Horwitz on the big team (112-117 wRC+ projection) you won't be able to sign a guy for AAA nearly as good as Vogelbach. So your depth is worse and you don't project any better.

 

Is what it is. He is blocked but it's just because of how MLB roster rules work. Once he is out of options he will be a big leaguer somewhere. The other possibility is he slides in as an injury replacement and does so well, overperforms, then he leapfrogs the other option above him. Wally Pipp.

 

I do think they are scared to platoon Turner at this point. Maybe later this year...

 

This is all semantics, he is blocked, but Jays chose to intentionally block him for some small benefit. If you don't sign Vogelbach is the projection any worse

 

Howritz gets Vogelbech playing time

If Howritz/Vlad/Turner need to be replaced ? get's the playing time.

 

So it's Nathan Lukes, or Barger or other that gets the playing time and are they that much worse than Vogelbech? Like what is the projected WAR increase from having Vogelbech ? I'm not saying it's nothing, but maybe it is like 0.1 at the expense of playing time for more interesting guys.

[Olerud363]

This is all semantics, he is blocked, but Jays chose to intentionally block him for some small benefit. If you don't sign Vogelbach is the projection any worse

 

Howritz gets Vogelbech playing time

If Howritz/Vlad/Turner need to be replaced ? get's the playing time.

 

So it's Nathan Lukes, or Barger or other that gets the playing time and are they that much worse than Vogelbech? Like what is the projected WAR increase from having Vogelbech ? I'm not saying it's nothing, but maybe it is like 0.1 at the expense of playing time for more interesting guys.

 

Let's say a guy Vogelbech was needed for 100 games. include lifetime rate stats/projections/ and defense which combo is more fwar for those 100 games. Given lifetime rates Vlad would be -12 over those 100 games while Biggio would be -3 on fangraphs system.

 

Vlad at first/Vogelbech at DH

Vlad at DH/Biggio at first

[Spanky__99]

This is all semantics, he is blocked, but Jays chose to intentionally block him for some small benefit. If you don't sign Vogelbach is the projection any worse

 

Howritz gets Vogelbech playing time

If Howritz/Vlad/Turner need to be replaced ? get's the playing time.

 

So it's Nathan Lukes, or Barger or other that gets the playing time and are they that much worse than Vogelbech? Like what is the projected WAR increase from having Vogelbech ? I'm not saying it's nothing, but maybe it is like 0.1 at the expense of playing time for more interesting guys.

 

Vogelbach's barely playing man, they want Horwitz getting reps at 2nd and LF and playing everyday. Howritz would play if an injury occurs to Vlad or Turner. It's not a big deal.

[Brownie19]

Vogelbach's barely playing man, they want Horwitz getting reps at 2nd and LF and playing everyday. Howritz would play if an injury occurs to Vlad or Turner. It's not a big deal.

 

This is correct.

 

This may change if the team decides that Turner shouldn't be the everyday DH. At that point, they may want to give Horwitz an extended look. We may be reaching that point, but it shouldn't be hard to see why they didn't start the season there.

[BigCecil]

Just post the link. That'll work. Or send it to me on FB.

 

https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/how-blue-jays-davis-schneiders-recent-adjustments-led-to-everyday-role/?sn-amp

 

I looked for the X thing but couldn't find it. There was also an on air feature Blue Jays Central did, but above gets into it at the bottom.

Edited May 21, 2024 by BigCecil

[Terminator]

https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/how-blue-jays-davis-schneiders-recent-adjustments-led-to-everyday-role/?sn-amp

 

I looked for the X thing but couldn't find it. There was also an on air feature Blue Jays Central did, but above gets into it at the bottom.

 

Typical boomer behavior

[Spanky__99]

https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/how-blue-jays-davis-schneiders-recent-adjustments-led-to-everyday-role/?sn-amp

 

I looked for the X thing but couldn't find it. There was also an on air feature Blue Jays Central did, but above gets into it at the bottom.

 

Neat, thanks. Cool read.

[Brownie19]

https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/how-blue-jays-davis-schneiders-recent-adjustments-led-to-everyday-role/?sn-amp

 

I looked for the X thing but couldn't find it. There was also an on air feature Blue Jays Central did, but above gets into it at the bottom.

 

This all seems like a positive story to me. Jays started the year putting him in situations to succeed and he did, which bought him more rope and he earned a full time starters job. The team also worked with him to fix some holes in his swing (including changes to his stance) and the results are paying off. Recently we've also seen the team make changes to the lineup and give starters a longer leash (in response to poor performances by the pen). This all seems like approaches and moves most should support. Hopefully there are more positives like this moving forward.

[BigCecil]

Typical boomer behavior

 

Ha! Wilko shut down one of my old man rants the other day with a top shelf meme from the Office.

 

Governator tried to teach me how to post images etc years ago. Never took. Techno chimp.

[Olerud363]

Went to check on something and got distracted by Druw Jones headline that he is now finding his power... not sure that is true. lol. Still at low A slugging .350

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=jones-000dru

 

This is what I am saying about Nimalla. Players that suck in their first 40 or 50 games have a long road ahead even if a teenager. Jones and Nimalla are likely to take years to get through the minors if they make it at all.

 

On the other hand players that smoke the ball as a teenager are 18 months away often. It's just data 101. Extreme data either way tells you something even if sample size is low(ish). Through 40 games guy hits .175 with a 10 to 50 bb to k you know something, guy hit .350 with power and a 25-25 k/bb you know something. Guy hits .250 with a 20 to 35 k/bb you know nothing.

[Olerud363]

Went to check on something and got distracted by Druw Jones headline that he is now finding his power... not sure that is true. lol. Still at low A slugging .350

 

correction. Druw is slugging .389 but with 46 ks in 31 games. Doesn't have the hand eye to probably ever make it I don't think. Weird how that happens to even a top 2 pick. Scouts and stats can't tell that their hand eye coordination isn't good enough based on high school games, but it becomes apparent after 30 rookie ball games sometimes.

[Brownie19]

Went to check on something and got distracted by Druw Jones headline that he is now finding his power... not sure that is true. lol. Still at low A slugging .350

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=jones-000dru

 

This is what I am saying about Nimalla. Players that suck in their first 40 or 50 games have a long road ahead even if a teenager. Jones and Nimalla are likely to take years to get through the minors if they make it at all.

 

On the other hand players that smoke the ball as a teenager are 18 months away often. It's just data 101. Extreme data either way tells you something even if sample size is low(ish). Through 40 games guy hits .175 with a 10 to 50 bb to k you know something, guy hit .350 with power and a 25-25 k/bb you know something. Guy hits .250 with a 20 to 35 k/bb you know nothing.

 

Great - I can't wait until Adrian Pinto is a superstar at the ML level.

 

184 wRC+ 2:1 BB/K rate at 18 in rookie ball.

[Brownie19]

correction. Druw is slugging .389 but with 46 ks in 31 games. Doesn't have the hand eye to probably ever make it I don't think. Weird how that happens to even a top 2 pick. Scouts and stats can't tell that their hand eye coordination isn't good enough based on high school games, but it becomes apparent after 30 rookie ball games sometimes.

 

Ever think it's just some writer who needs to meet his quota writing a story about Jones, who's shown signs of life over the past 23 games (.312/.426/.481, 148 wRC+)?

 

Jones has been injured a lot since being drafted. I have no idea how much that's affected his development, but suspect it has to some extent. The kid is starting to put it together at age 20. I'm not sure there's more analysis than that required.

[Jimcanuck]

Brennen Davis might have made the long road back.

 

1. Brennen Davis, OF, Cubs

Team: Triple-A Iowa (International)

Age: 24

 

Why He’s Here: .389/.542/1.278 (7-for-18) 9 R, 1 2B, 5 HR, 9 RBIs, 3 BB, 5 SO, 1 SB, 0 CS

 

The Scoop: The clock is ticking for Davis, who’s on his second option since being added to the Cubs’ 40-man roster before the 2023 season. So having a hot streak like this is very well timed as Davis tries to show his back injury isn’t as much of an issue as it once was. Davis does still show some effects from the injury. His average sprint speed nowadays is 26.9 feet per second, which is a bit below average. He once was a plus runner. But if he can mash like this, that won’t matter. (JC)

[Brownie19]

Orelvis is in a big slump. 1 for his last 33. wRC+ back down to 106.

[Olerud363]

Great - I can't wait until Adrian Pinto is a superstar at the ML level.

 

184 wRC+ 2:1 BB/K rate at 18 in rookie ball.

 

that's in the DSL. If he did that in almost any league in the States it would be more meaningful. DSL is probably less reliable and more like high school

 

And you picked an injured guy too. Like he is not playing anywhere because he is injured. Only played like 35 games the last two years.

 

Make a list of all ever who hit above .350 in first 50 minor league games (include DSL if you want) then a list of all who hit below .200 in first 50 games. Tell us what happened on average to each group.

 

And I didn't say there was any guarantees. Just saying the first 50 games in a USA minor league is meaningful if it is dramatic either way.

[Olerud363]

Orelvis is in a big slump. 1 for his last 33. wRC+ back down to 106.

 

This franchise sucks at developing impact talent. If Horwitz, a .330 .450 .490 hitter projects as a no power loser....

 

What does a .200 hitting popup machine project as?

 

In other news the only type of talent they can develop, 24 year olds who will play in Buffalo until they are 28 did good in aa tonight (Roden and Kasevich had big games)

 

2027 Bisons win championship with 27 year old Roden and Kasevich hitting .350 combined in their third year with Bisons, Horwirtz jealous as he only hit .330 for 4th year in a row.

 

2027 Blue Jays win 72 with great signing of several great 38 year olds.

[Ray]

Some good news from the farm yesterday:

 

Alan Roden with 4-for-5 with 2 home runs. Power is starting to show with 3 homers in his last 6 games. He's on a 29-homer per 162 games pace right now which is much improved from last season. K/BB rates still looking solid, walking almost as much as striking out. One thing to monitor here is that the org seems to be shielding him from facing lefties, so they might just project him as a platoon player. Either way though, assuming he keeps playing well, we could see him in AAA pretty soon (it's his age 24 season) and then probably a 40-man consideration for the offseason.

 

Josh Kasevich with another 3-for-4 day with a 2B. He's still hit over power, but his SLG is trending upwards with him almost matching his doubles total from last season in a third of the PAs. Becoming more bullish on his ability to develop into a starter with strong defense and high contact, especially if he can tap into a little more power.

 

Adam Macko with a 5IP, 2H, 1ER, 3BB, 6K