Official MiLB/Prospects Thread

[MikeM3]

Yes

 

Well, it's not really counter anymore as most orgs want pitchers to have fastballs that do not drop

 

But traditionally teams chased pitchers with a steep angle. Hitters basically all have uppercut swings, or at least a slight uppercut. The swing plane and the dropping pitch angle then tunnel or run together, so the hitters make more contact. If a pitch can come in more level than the hitters swing, you will get more whiffs.

 

But it's not as simple as VAA = good because it is pitch and player specific. A sinkerballer doesn't want to chase VAA. VAA is great if you are throwing 4 seamers and particularly up in the zone (but pitchers with elite VAA can literally get whiffs down the middle on 4 seamers). A team could have ideal VAA on all their pitchers but if 1/3 of them are sinker ballers ideal VAA does not mean higher VAA. So team level rankings aren't necessarily that informative. It just tells you the type of pitchers Toronto likes. Well, that and their effectiveness.

 

I am kind of surprised they would be absolute tops in it. The rotation doesn't strike me as one that would lead the league in VAA. Isn't Gausman's fastball shape kind of mediocre?

 

The pen is definitely all these kids of guys though. Except for maybe Mayza?

 

I should have specified it was on 4 seamers only, which ya is very surprising when you look at the majors

 

The cynic would say we're late to the party and the Dodgers have 50 minor leaguers with elite seam shifted wake now

[L54]

I should have specified it was on 4 seamers only, which ya is very surprising when you look at the majors

 

The cynic would say we're late to the party and the Dodgers have 50 minor leaguers with elite seam shifted wake now

 

You are the cynic

[Laika]

I should have specified it was on 4 seamers only, which ya is very surprising when you look at the majors

 

The cynic would say we're late to the party and the Dodgers have 50 minor leaguers with elite seam shifted wake now

 

The broad trend the last 2 years has been shaping sliders. That normally means a sweeper but some guys are doing that tight gyro slider.

 

The broad trend that started like, eight? years ago was the high rising FB.... so yeah it's very possible the cutting edge teams don't care much about this anymore. Who knows.

 

It still seems pretty f***ing powerful though. So many MLB hitters are just USELESS against a good high fastball. It's such a deadly pitch.

 

That makes much more sense if VAA is just on the four seamer. Totally tracks for Kikuchi and the entire bullpen. Bassitt would only be like 10% 4 seamers but maybe they are shaped nice. Berrios was more sinkers than 4 seamers in 2023, I think, that was one change he made.

[MikeM3]

The broad trend the last 2 years has been shaping sliders. That normally means a sweeper but some guys are doing that tight gyro slider.

 

The broad trend that started like, eight? years ago was the high rising FB.... so yeah it's very possible the cutting edge teams don't care much about this anymore. Who knows.

 

It still seems pretty f***ing powerful though. So many MLB hitters are just USELESS against a good high fastball. It's such a deadly pitch.

 

That makes much more sense if VAA is just on the four seamer. Totally tracks for Kikuchi and the entire bullpen. Bassitt would only be like 10% 4 seamers but maybe they are shaped nice. Berrios was more sinkers than 4 seamers in 2023, I think, that was one change he made.

 

I would say it still seems pretty powerful, ya. I think it will hold on longer than sweepers. Some pitchers are going sweeper to righties and gyro to lefties (bryan woo) bc sweepers are so bad to oppo handed batters.

 

I also think yimi garcia was a VAA play

 

I always wonder how good Stroman would have been if he continued his 4 seam usage from his rookie year which was basically the best year of his career.

[Laika]

Good explanation ^^^ thanks Laika

 

Need a couple bats to pair with the VAA darlings of the MLB

 

Man, this was 2021 Vlad.

 

He SLUGGED 1.178 on pitches middle-up (not OPS.... SLG).

.634 in-up, and .733 away-up

and SLUGGED .688 on pitches middle-above, i.e. above the zone but centred over the plate

 

I dunno what happened, he has lost it. Kind of came into the league pounding the low pitch with a hole up, then fixed it in 2021, then lost the fix and also now cannot touch anything low and away at all. Blargh.

[Spanky__99]

VAA the ole sneaky fastball.

[Laika]

I would say it still seems pretty powerful, ya. I think it will hold on longer than sweepers. Some pitchers are going sweeper to righties and gyro to lefties (bryan woo) bc sweepers are so bad to oppo handed batters.

 

I also think yimi garcia was a VAA play

 

I always wonder how good Stroman would have been if he continued his 4 seam usage from his rookie year which was basically the best year of his career.

 

Stroman could have been an Ace but decided to be a #3 instead.

[Spanky__99]

Stroman could have been an Ace but decided to be a #3 instead.

 

Why did he move away from that, was it him, or the org?

[Laika]

Why did he move away from that, was it him, or the org?

 

Personal decisions by him for sure

[Stangstag]

Why did he move away from that, was it him, or the org?

 

I think he was quoted as saying he wanted to go “deeper into games” so he decided to “pitch to contact” more and use more sinkers.

[L54]

Man, this was 2021 Vlad.

 

He SLUGGED 1.178 on pitches middle-up (not OPS.... SLG).

.634 in-up, and .733 away-up

and SLUGGED .688 on pitches middle-above, i.e. above the zone but centred over the plate

 

I dunno what happened, he has lost it. Kind of came into the league pounding the low pitch with a hole up, then fixed it in 2021, then lost the fix and also now cannot touch anything low and away at all. Blargh.

 

Such a sad sequence of events 😢

 

All Jays fans can do is hope for a massive rebound

[Terminator]

Man, this was 2021 Vlad.

 

He SLUGGED 1.178 on pitches middle-up (not OPS.... SLG).

.634 in-up, and .733 away-up

and SLUGGED .688 on pitches middle-above, i.e. above the zone but centred over the plate

 

I dunno what happened, he has lost it. Kind of came into the league pounding the low pitch with a hole up, then fixed it in 2021, then lost the fix and also now cannot touch anything low and away at all. Blargh.

 

I can't remember who else this happened to but there was a young hitter who went through something similar and did rebound.

[max silver]

Yes

 

Well, it's not really counter anymore as most orgs want pitchers to have fastballs that do not drop

 

But traditionally teams chased pitchers with a steep angle. Hitters basically all have uppercut swings, or at least a slight uppercut. The swing plane and the dropping pitch angle then tunnel or run together, so the hitters make more contact. If a pitch can come in more level than the hitters swing, you will get more whiffs.

 

But it's not as simple as VAA = good because it is pitch and player specific. A sinkerballer doesn't want to chase VAA. VAA is great if you are throwing 4 seamers and particularly up in the zone (but pitchers with elite VAA can literally get whiffs down the middle on 4 seamers). A team could have ideal VAA on all their pitchers but if 1/3 of them are sinker ballers ideal VAA does not mean higher VAA. So team level rankings aren't necessarily that informative. It just tells you the type of pitchers Toronto likes. Well, that and their effectiveness.

 

I am kind of surprised they would be absolute tops in it. The rotation doesn't strike me as one that would lead the league in VAA. Isn't Gausman's fastball shape kind of mediocre?

 

The pen is definitely all these kids of guys though. Except for maybe Mayza?

 

Am I correct in assuming that vertical attack angle and 4 seam spin rate would be directly correlated?

[Laika]

Am I correct in assuming that vertical attack angle and 4 seam spin rate would be directly correlated?

 

Probably? But I don't know.

 

They are different things.

 

VAA is responsible for some portion of the results that people in recent years have been attributing entirely to high spin 4 seamers.

 

VAA will be increased by FB velocity, pitcher height, and pitcher release point.

 

I would ASSUME that VAA does correlate with spin because the pitchers from a strategy perspective would be trying to maximize both, if they pitch like that.

 

Basically, you can have a great VAA and succeed even with middling spin. Or amazing spin but get hit if your VAA really sucks.

[MikeM3]

Am I correct in assuming that vertical attack angle and 4 seam spin rate would be directly correlated?

 

You can influence VAA by just being short or by being a freak like Degrom who gets way down the mound and somehow throws at an angle of a 5'9 guy.

 

You can also be Josh Hader and side arm the ball but have it come out with the trajectory of a 5'9 guy throwing a 4 seam

[Brownie19]

Man, this was 2021 Vlad.

 

He SLUGGED 1.178 on pitches middle-up (not OPS.... SLG).

.634 in-up, and .733 away-up

and SLUGGED .688 on pitches middle-above, i.e. above the zone but centred over the plate

 

I dunno what happened, he has lost it. Kind of came into the league pounding the low pitch with a hole up, then fixed it in 2021, then lost the fix and also now cannot touch anything low and away at all. Blargh.

 

That's interesting. IMO, Vlad does have a more traditional "get on top of the ball and backspin it" swing, which should do better v. pitches up the in the zone. This is why in the '90's and early '00's, everyone and their brother was working the bottom of the zone. Sinkers were common and pitchers were taught to pound the knees and "don't miss up". Remember when the "tell" that a pitcher was tiring was that he was leaving pitches "up in the zone"?

 

Batters adjusted to this approach and added the little uppercut to their swings. Suddenly, they were crushing everything low in the zone. That's when we saw the reincarnation of the high fastball (8-10 years ago). Pitchers focusing on high spin rates and VAA and it's of course been super effective. I'm curious to see if hitters adjust back to the "hit down on the ball and backspin it" approach again soon. Certainly some are making changes to their swing paths (Biggio has). It is a fascinating cat and mouse game.

 

I do wonder if Vlad lost his ability to pound the high pitch because he is focused on increasing his launch angle? Who knows. He might be one of those hitters where less is more. Stop trying to get him to change things and just let him go hit with a clear, empty mind.

[wamco]

Who doesn’t get tendered on Friday?

[John_Havok]

Who doesn’t get tendered on Friday?

 

Hopefully Espinal

 

Parsons, Heineman and maybe Lukes?

[Frenchsoup]

Who are our top 10 prospects?

[Laika]

Something like this

 

1. Ricky Tiedemann

2. Orelvis Martinez

3. Arjun Nimmala

4. Brandon Barriera

5. Alan Roden

6. Addison Barger

7. Leo Jimenez

8. Damiano Palmegiani

9. Enmanuel Bonilla

10. Adam Macko

11. Spencer Horwitz

12. Cade Doughty

13. Hagen Danner

14. Connor Cooke

15. Yosver Zulueta

16. Hayden Juenger

17. Dahian Santos

18. Josh Kasevich

19. Tucker Toman

20. Kendry Rojas

 

Chad Dallas, Peyton Williams, Alex De Jesus, Will Robertson, Adrian Pinto, Manuel Beltre, Victor Arias, Irv Carter, CJ Van Eyk, Mason Fluharty, Michael Dominguez, Dasan Brown, Gabriel Martinez are some other names that could either round out a top 30 or slide into the top 20 based on preference.

 

I know nothing of the 2023 draftees other than Arjun Nimmala; it is very possible a few of them belong on the top 20.

 

Did Davis Schneider lose prospect status? If not, he's my #2.

[Frenchsoup]

looked at video of the top 10.... it seems solid... I'd have Tidemann 1 Davis Schneider 2 and Leo Jiminez 3 if his d is good

[Frenchsoup]

I like Macko over Brandon Barriera

[Frenchsoup]

Hayden Juenger looks like he could be a multi inning reliever for us this year.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Hayden Juenger looks like he could be a multi inning reliever for us this year.

 

Hayden Juenger, Hagen Danner, Connor Cooke and Josver Zulueta will probably all get some MLB innings this year, if healthy.

[Spanky__99]

Was checking the Nationals top 10 on BA, pretty sexy man...

 

Headshot of Dylan Crews

1. Dylan Crews

OF

 

Headshot of James Wood

2. James Wood

OF

 

Headshot of Brady House

3. Brady House

3B

 

Headshot of Cade Cavalli

4. Cade Cavalli

RHP

 

Headshot of Yohandy Morales

5. Yohandy Morales

3B

 

Headshot of Jackson Rutledge

6. Jackson Rutledge

RHP

 

Headshot of Robert Hassell

7. Robert Hassell

OF

 

Headshot of Cristhian Vaquero

8. Cristhian Vaquero

OF

 

Headshot of Elijah Green

9. Elijah Green

OF

 

Headshot of Jarlin Susana

10. Jarlin Susana

RHP

[Spanky__99]

Hayden Juenger, Hagen Danner, Connor Cooke and Josver Zulueta will probably all get some MLB innings this year, if healthy.

 

And on the team...

[Spanky__99]

Something like this

 

1. Ricky Tiedemann

2. Orelvis Martinez

3. Arjun Nimmala

4. Brandon Barriera

5. Alan Roden

6. Addison Barger

7. Leo Jimenez

8. Damiano Palmegiani

9. Enmanuel Bonilla

10. Adam Macko

11. Spencer Horwitz

12. Cade Doughty

13. Hagen Danner

14. Connor Cooke

15. Yosver Zulueta

16. Hayden Juenger

17. Dahian Santos

18. Josh Kasevich

19. Tucker Toman

20. Kendry Rojas

 

Chad Dallas, Peyton Williams, Alex De Jesus, Will Robertson, Adrian Pinto, Manuel Beltre, Victor Arias, Irv Carter, CJ Van Eyk, Mason Fluharty, Michael Dominguez, Dasan Brown, Gabriel Martinez are some other names that could either round out a top 30 or slide into the top 20 based on preference.

 

I know nothing of the 2023 draftees other than Arjun Nimmala; it is very possible a few of them belong on the top 20.

 

Did Davis Schneider lose prospect status? If not, he's my #2.

 

This was BA's mid season...

 

1. Ricky Tiedemann

LHP

 

Headshot of Orelvis Martinez

2. Orelvis Martinez

SS

 

Headshot of Arjun Nimmala

3. Arjun Nimmala

SS

 

Headshot of Brandon Barriera

4. Brandon Barriera

LHP

 

Headshot of Addison Barger

5. Addison Barger

SS

 

Headshot of Kendry Rojas

6. Kendry Rojas

LHP

 

Headshot of Leo Jimenez

7. Leo Jimenez

SS

 

Headshot of Alan Roden

8. Alan Roden

OF

 

9. Juaron Watts-Brown

RHP

 

Headshot of Davis Schneider

10. Davis Schneider

2B

 

Headshot of Yosver Zulueta

11. Yosver Zulueta

RHP

 

Headshot of Josh Kasevich

12. Josh Kasevich

SS

 

Headshot of Dahian Santos

13. Dahian Santos

RHP

 

Headshot of Hayden Juenger

14. Hayden Juenger

RHP

 

Headshot of Spencer Horwitz

15. Spencer Horwitz

1B

 

Headshot of Chad Dallas

16. Chad Dallas

RHP

 

Headshot of Damiano Palmegiani

17. Damiano Palmegiani

OF

 

Headshot of Connor Cooke

18. Connor Cooke

RHP

 

Headshot of Tucker Toman

19. Tucker Toman

SS

 

20. Landen Maroudis

RHP

 

Headshot of Cade Doughty

21. Cade Doughty

2B

 

Headshot of Manuel Beltre

22. Manuel Beltre

SS

 

Headshot of Hagen Danner

23. Hagen Danner

RHP

 

Headshot of Gabriel Martinez

24. Gabriel Martinez

OF

 

Headshot of Rainer Nunez

25. Rainer Nunez

1B

 

Headshot of Devereaux Harrison

26. Devereaux Harrison

RHP

 

Headshot of Mason Fluharty

27. Mason Fluharty

LHP

 

28. Nolan Perry

RHP

 

Headshot of Jace Bohrofen

29. Jace Bohrofen

OF

 

30. Connor O'Halloran

LHP

[Frenchsoup]

im falling in love with tidemann

[Krylian]

im falling in love with tidemann

 

Who zat?

[Jimcanuck]

im falling in love with tidemann

 

Pitchers will break your heart