Official MiLB/Prospects Thread

[Terminator]

The Orelvis "hot streak" continues. 3 for 4 today with a double. Slashing .225/.322/.530 on the year and those numbers are climbing fast. He was slashing .089/.169/.266 on May 9th.

[Brownie19]

Your first sentence is flat out wrong. He's repeating AA as a 21 year old, bro. It might've been a little early to promote him to AA but he's made a significant change, like others said he's more than likely developing, not a hot streak, etc... who cares anyway, he's still a top prospect anyway you look at it. On the 8th of June he was just outside the top 100 from BA's write up, he's trending back up and that's a good thing, that's how the industry works, smile Brownie.

 

.195 with a wRC+ of 88 over 681 PA's isn't bad in A+/AA for someone age 19 to 21? Those are the numbers that Term was referring to. I hope he's made some massive, tangible changes and improvements though. I'm just not ready to get all that excited yet.

[Terminator]

First - those numbers are still pretty bad no matter how old is he.

 

They highlighted some concern but they weren't THAT bad for a 20 year old in AA.

 

I am using those numbers when considering whether or not I think he'll become a ML starter or not.

 

Yeah but you are doing it wrong because you aren't applying his age/level and you also are discounting 7+ weeks of him HAMMERING the ball this year as nothing but a "hot streak."

 

As for his recent success - why are you so convinced it's tangible improvement and not simply a hot streak? All I'm saying is it could simply be a hot streak. There are LOTS of very s***** baseball players who tear the cover off the ball for short periods and never sustain that success.

 

If a guy is young I think it's fair to suggest that a 7+ week trend of him hitting the s*** out of the ball after adjusting to a new level might be due to development and improvement. This isn't a 30 year old vet having two good weeks after 2.5 years of being s***. Orelvis also hit the s*** out of the ball in 2019 and 2021 and made some Top 100 prospect lists so his success isn't limited to just these past 7 weeks, he's had a lot of success for the majority of his pro career.

 

Orelvis went from a big time prospect with all kinds of helium to someone who's now a complete wild card. He was a legit star in A Ball as a 19 year old - like he had real production while being very young for the league.

 

I can't even follow your logic here. You thought he was a legit star before but now that he's hammering the ball again it's just a hot streak because he had an iffy year after an aggressive promotion? Prospect development isn't always linear.

 

Did the Jays rush him

 

Yes.

 

and had that had a negative effect on him?

 

Maybe temporarily.

 

Is this just another example of poor development within the system?

 

It's actually the opposite at least until he proves otherwise.

[Spanky__99]

lol

[Brownie19]

OK you win Term. He's a great prospect. Those 650 PA's of terrible production should be ignored now because he was young. He's back as the next big prospect for the Jays. Can't wait to buy the jersey.

[Pendleton]

 

 

OK you win Term. He's a great prospect. Those 650 PA's of terrible production should be ignored now because he was young. He's back as the next big prospect for the Jays. Can't wait to buy the jersey.

 

Orelvis had a hit off a big league starter last night, confirmed stud.

 

[Terminator]

OK you win Term. He's a great prospect. Those 650 PA's of terrible production should be ignored now because he was young. He's back as the next big prospect for the Jays. Can't wait to buy the jersey.

 

Sorry that was a little bit overkill. I was in working all night and got a little too in depth after switching to baseball talk.

 

In short, I think last year threw up some red flags so you are right to worry about him but some of it can be excused by his age. He seems to have turned a corner and is getting his prospect shine back. It's not just a BABIP fueled hot streak either. His underyling numbers like his Ks as well as his pop ups are improving and this has been going on for 7 weeks and counting.

 

Sometimes prospect development isn't linear and straightforward. They can sometimes zig zag their way into becoming MLB starters or even stars.

[Terminator]

 

 

 

Orelvis had a hit off a big league starter last night, confirmed stud.

 

 

Opposite field line drive single off Rodon? Wow!

[Laika]

OK you win Term. He's a great prospect. Those 650 PA's of terrible production should be ignored now because he was young. He's back as the next big prospect for the Jays. Can't wait to buy the jersey.

 

why are you being obtuse

 

just zoom out and look at the big picture. there is no reason to cherry pick any sample

 

he was not great but not hopeless as a 20 year old in AA (almost average, with some tools and defense)

 

he has been good as a 21 year old in AA this year (121 wRC+ infielder with good age vs. level)

 

and then when you look at the trends on his K and BB and ISO numbers year to year, it looks like he has developed significantly

[Terminator]

For comparison's sake, Jasson Dominguez had a ton of hype as an international signing. He's currently a consensus top 60ish prospect ranging from #47 on MLB Pipeline to #67 on Baseball America. He's slashing .207/.353/.385 in the Eastern League as a 20 year old.

 

Another metric in Orelvis' favor. Before the year Zips does their 3 year projections and by 2025 they think he'll be a 3 WAR player in the bigs as a 23 year old. That would be quite the asset. After what presumably will be a big year for Orelvis, those projections are likely to go up.

[Brownie19]

why are you being obtuse

 

just zoom out and look at the big picture. there is no reason to cherry pick any sample

 

he was not great but not hopeless as a 20 year old in AA (almost average, with some tools and defense)

 

he has been good as a 21 year old in AA this year (121 wRC+ infielder with good age vs. level)

 

and then when you look at the trends on his K and BB and ISO numbers year to year, it looks like he has developed significantly

 

This entire discussion started because I suggested he wasn't a prospect and that I thought he had about a 5% chance of becoming a ML starter. It was a random statement that you decided to point out was contradictory (I guess because you think a 5% chance of becoming a starter makes you a prospect). Obviously some think there's a much better probability that he becomes a ML starter - great. 6 weeks ago, I doubt anyone thought that because he was hitting .099/.175/.296 with a wRC+ of 20 after a terrible 2022.

 

I fully appreciate he's killing the ball now, but I'm still not convinced he's much of a prospect, just as I still don't view Adam Kloffenstein as much of a prospect despite his new success in AA. I still believe there's a very small chance that Orelvis becomes the starting 3rd baseman for the Blue Jays (or another team) for multiple seasons. Obviously I hope I'm wrong.

 

Let's move on FFS.

[Laika]

This entire discussion started because I suggested he wasn't a prospect and that I thought he had about a 5% chance of becoming a ML starter. It was a random statement that you decided to point out was contradictory (I guess because you think a 5% chance of becoming a starter makes you a prospect). Obviously some think there's a much better probability that he becomes a ML starter - great. 6 weeks ago, I doubt anyone thought that because he was hitting .099/.175/.296 with a wRC+ of 20 after a terrible 2022.

 

I fully appreciate he's killing the ball now, but I'm still not convinced he's much of a prospect, just as I still don't view Adam Kloffenstein as much of a prospect despite his new success in AA. I still believe there's a very small chance that Orelvis becomes the starting 3rd baseman for the Blue Jays (or another team) for multiple seasons. Obviously I hope I'm wrong.

 

Let's move on FFS.

 

Okay

 

In the future, perhaps do not make absolute statements on debatable topics. And then perhaps debates won't follow!

[connorp]

Brownie doesn’t have a seat anywhere at a lunch table. Since he attacked me out of nowhere one day, I’m enjoying the progression

[Brownie19]

Okay

 

In the future, perhaps do not make absolute statements on debatable topics. And then perhaps debates won't follow!

 

I honestly have no idea what this means. What absolute statements did I make? What's wrong with a debate on a message board? Term and I debated until I'd had enough and threw in the towel. Then you had to jump in and add your 2 cents. You literally started the debate and now won't let it end.

[Olerud363]

This entire discussion started because I suggested he wasn't a prospect and that I thought he had about a 5% chance of becoming a ML starter. It was a random statement that you decided to point out was contradictory (I guess because you think a 5% chance of becoming a starter makes you a prospect). Obviously some think there's a much better probability that he becomes a ML starter - great. 6 weeks ago, I doubt anyone thought that because he was hitting .099/.175/.296 with a wRC+ of 20 after a terrible 2022.

 

I fully appreciate he's killing the ball now, but I'm still not convinced he's much of a prospect, just as I still don't view Adam Kloffenstein as much of a prospect despite his new success in AA. I still believe there's a very small chance that Orelvis becomes the starting 3rd baseman for the Blue Jays (or another team) for multiple seasons. Obviously I hope I'm wrong.

 

Let's move on FFS.

 

It's an interesting debate because Orelvis has reached a stage where he probably has a greater than 50% chance of becoming a major league "starter" in some form.

 

In Blue Jays history how many players have 'held their own' in AA at age 20, then excelled in AA at age 21? Out of those how many had 1 season of 400 at bats (that may not be a starter), how many have had 3 seasons of 500 at bats?

 

What is more impressive Orelvis Martinez 20 and 21? Vernon Wells 21 and 22 in aaa ? Rowdy Tellez 22 and 23 in aaa? The latter two became starters. They also both had a very bad year, followed by an improvement year, but I'd argue Martinez's 'bad' year, and 'improvement' year were both better than Wells and Tellez.

 

It's like you hit .240 with 11 homers or something, and then improve to .270 with 15 homers, no one really blinks, but even though Orelvis's 'bad' seasons are not as bad really as other bad seasons, the batting average is so low to make it seem like a great disaster.

 

And I think the intuition of that is from hundreds of guys hitting .200 then being released and never making it the next step, because they are almost hitting .200 with like 14 homers, or 2 homers or whatever, and they are 23, or 25 or something. So that's it. Hitting .200 gets you eliminated.

 

When evaluating Martinez in the group of minor league players who hit .200, the number is thousands and the failure rate probably 99.9. When evaluating him in the population of 20 year olds who hit .200 with 30 homers the population is like... 1???

[Laika]

I honestly have no idea what this means. What absolute statements did I make? What's wrong with a debate on a message board? Term and I debated until I'd had enough and threw in the towel. Then you had to jump in and add your 2 cents. You literally started the debate and now won't let it end.

 

"he's not a prospect" = absolute statement

 

"I mean he's not a prospect by my arbitrary definition" = you walking it back

 

nothing is wrong with debate, you are the one complaining about it. "Let's move on FFS." = you.

[Spanky__99]

Oof, haymakers thrown today. Hah!

[Brownie19]

It's an interesting debate because Orelvis has reached a stage where he probably has a greater than 50% chance of becoming a major league "starter" in some form.

 

In Blue Jays history how many players have 'held their own' in AA at age 20, then excelled in AA at age 21? Out of those how many had 1 season of 400 at bats (that may not be a starter), how many have had 3 seasons of 500 at bats?

 

What is more impressive Orelvis Martinez 20 and 21? Vernon Wells 21 and 22 in aaa ? Rowdy Tellez 22 and 23 in aaa? The latter two became starters. They also both had a very bad year, followed by an improvement year, but I'd argue Martinez's 'bad' year, and 'improvement' year were both better than Wells and Tellez.

 

It's like you hit .240 with 11 homers or something, and then improve to .270 with 15 homers, no one really blinks, but even though Orelvis's 'bad' seasons are not as bad really as other bad seasons, the batting average is so low to make it seem like a great disaster.

 

And I think the intuition of that is from hundreds of guys hitting .200 then being released and never making it the next step, because they are almost hitting .200 with like 14 homers, or 2 homers or whatever, and they are 23, or 25 or something. So that's it. Hitting .200 gets you eliminated.

 

When evaluating Martinez in the group of minor league players who hit .200, the number is thousands and the failure rate probably 99.9. When evaluating him in the population of 20 year olds who hit .200 with 30 homers the population is like... 1???

 

I would certainly argue that Rowdy Tellez should not be a starter at the ML level. He's 5-6 years into his career and has a career WAR of 0.4.

[Pendleton]

 

[Eat My Shatkins]

Yeah, between Cooke, Fluharty, Danner, Juenger and Brock the Jays might have some good homegrown reliever options moving forward.

[Pendleton]

[Pendleton]

[Eat My Shatkins]

So I take it Barriera must be injured?

 

Hasn't pitched in a month.

[Krylian]

So I take it Barriera must be injured?

 

Hasn't pitched in a month.

 

Worst year for Jays prospects that I can remember

[Terminator]

Orelvis went 0-1 with 2 BBs and a Sac Fly last night.

[Olerud363]

Orelvis went 0-1 with 2 BBs and a Sac Fly last night.

 

Orelvis is and will be better than Vladimir Guerrero jr. That's not saying that much but...

 

Based on his k-bb this year I think Orelvis can hit .250, will walk a lot when he matures, and contend for homerun titles regularly. He won't have any huge contract and free agency issues like Vlad either.

 

Jays will call him up next year then sign him to a 10 year 100 million contract after he performs a few months. Orelvis will take it because unlike Vlad and Bo he won't think he is a 490 million dollar player, he'll remember that he could become Mr. Pop-up again overnight.

 

He'll look at Vlad hitting .244 with 7 homers about to be released next year, and realize that the magic can disappear any second...

 

Orelvis Martinez, the franchise!

[Olerud363]

Orelvis is and will be better than Vladimir Guerrero jr. That's not saying that much but...

 

Based on his k-bb this year I think Orelvis can hit .250, will walk a lot when he matures, and contend for homerun titles regularly. He won't have any huge contract and free agency issues like Vlad either.

 

Jays will call him up next year then sign him to a 10 year 100 million contract after he performs a few months. Orelvis will take it because unlike Vlad and Bo he won't think he is a 490 million dollar player, he'll remember that he could become Mr. Pop-up again overnight.

 

He'll look at Vlad hitting .244 with 7 homers about to be released next year, and realize that the magic can disappear any second...

 

Orelvis Martinez, the franchise!

 

I'm not wrong. If the baseball gods made our best hitting prospect ever, .400+ double a average, generational prospect 80 hit tool guy into a sub-replacement right handed version of broken wrist obese 2004/5 Eric Hinske....

 

They can make our .200 hitting average, 30 hit tool, Mr. Popup into a .260 hitter with power and walks.

 

Make Orelvis Martinez surprise us baseball gods. We deserve it after all, don't we?

[Terminator]

I'm not wrong. If the baseball gods made our best hitting prospect ever, .400+ double a average, generational prospect 80 hit tool guy into a sub-replacement right handed version of broken wrist obese 2004/5 Eric Hinske....

 

They can make our .200 hitting average, 30 hit tool, Mr. Popup into a .260 hitter with power and walks.

 

Make Orelvis Martinez surprise us baseball gods. We deserve it after all, don't we?

 

Maybe he can be Eugenio Suarez.

 

Suarez ran pretty low batting averages but they weren't as low as Orelvis. But Suarez also wasn't pushed as aggressively. Seems like a decent comp.

[Spanky__99]

Maybe he can be Eugenio Suarez.

 

Suarez ran pretty low batting averages but they weren't as low as Orelvis. But Suarez also wasn't pushed as aggressively. Seems like a decent comp.

 

Haha... https://www.tsn.ca/orelvis-martinez-drawing-lofty-comparisons-in-blue-jays-camp-1.1773433#:~:text=The%20swing%20and%20pop%20in,stud%20right%2Dhander%20Aaron%20Nola.

[Blazeit420]

Macko and De Jesus with solid nights for Vancouver.

 

Macko: 6 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 6 K

De Jesus: 2/5, 2 HR, 7 RBI (!)