Official MiLB/Prospects Thread

[Jimcanuck]

The new Dave Kingman.

 

edit - after posting I looked at his career numbers. He fixed the K rate issue and had a great career actually.

[John_Havok]

I think it's at the point where he IS having that kind of year, despite the batting average.

 

It's not a mirage to pair those K and BB rates with that ISO. He's a freak.

 

They could probably promote him at this point.

 

Nah, theyve got him fixing 2 of the 3 problems, theyre likely wanting to see that 3rd problem start to trend up before they do that.

[THANOS]

Nah, theyve got him fixing 2 of the 3 problems, theyre likely wanting to see that 3rd problem start to trend up before they do that.

 

What's his AVG over the past 3 weeks, when the other figures started to trend in better directions?

 

If it's in the upper .200s, I would consider promoting him to AAA and hopefully letting him ride the hot streak and approach into a respectable BABIP and AVG. It could do wonders for his confidence to continue with this approach, and maybe finish his season strong to set up a great 3B option heading into Chapman's free agency.

[glory]

What's his AVG over the past 3 weeks, when the other figures started to trend in better directions?

 

If it's in the upper .200s, I would consider promoting him to AAA and hopefully letting him ride the hot streak and approach into a respectable BABIP and AVG. It could do wonders for his confidence to continue with this approach, and maybe finish his season strong to set up a great 3B option heading into Chapman's free agency.

 

Since May 1:

 

111 PA, .258/.378/.699 (1.077 OPS), 176 wRC+, 15.3 BB%, 20.7 K%, .207 BABIP, .441 ISO, 12 HR

 

He's walking more, striking out a lot less, and still hitting for ridiculous power. His April was horrendous so that can't be discounted, but if he's found something since then that explains his May+, then I'd be tempted to promote him and see if that continues in AAA. The Jays desperately need prospects to start filling big league holes. Orelvis coming back from the dead would be a huge development, but too early to get excited.

[AMS528]

Mitch White continuing to get shelled in AAA.

 

1.1IP 4H 4ER 1BB 2K 0HRA

 

And Frasso has a 0.91 ERA with great K numbers and is apparently sitting 96.

 

He has a violent delivery, but he looks great.

[BlueBaller]

Don't throw the guy up a level as soon as he starts having success. Let him build on his success for a little while at least.

[max silver]

Since May 1:

 

111 PA, .258/.378/.699 (1.077 OPS), 176 wRC+, 15.3 BB%, 20.7 K%, .207 BABIP, .441 ISO, 12 HR

 

He's walking more, striking out a lot less, and still hitting for ridiculous power. His April was horrendous so that can't be discounted, but if he's found something since then that explains his May+, then I'd be tempted to promote him and see if that continues in AAA. The Jays desperately need prospects to start filling big league holes. Orelvis coming back from the dead would be a huge development, but too early to get excited.

 

As good as Orelvis has been in May it seems like he hit god level over the last 12 days or so. It appears as though opposition pitchers have become afraid to pitch to him, and he's been perfectly willing to take the walks when they are available.

 

His recent splits are nothing like we've seen from Orelvis up to this point and are pretty eye opening. Since May 21 he's produced the following:

 

28.6%BB/12.2%K/2.33BB/K .320 BABIP

 

.343/.531/.743 1.273 OPS 229 WRC+

[Spanky99]

Baseball America has Orelvis as the 3rd best position player from May the 8th in AA... Colt Keith ranked 1, Jonatan Clase 2, Martinez 3rd.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Nice to see some of the prospects turning things around.

 

Hurry back Tiedemann! (well, only if you're healthy)

[THANOS]

Since May 1:

 

111 PA, .258/.378/.699 (1.077 OPS), 176 wRC+, 15.3 BB%, 20.7 K%, .207 BABIP, .441 ISO, 12 HR

 

He's walking more, striking out a lot less, and still hitting for ridiculous power. His April was horrendous so that can't be discounted, but if he's found something since then that explains his May+, then I'd be tempted to promote him and see if that continues in AAA. The Jays desperately need prospects to start filling big league holes. Orelvis coming back from the dead would be a huge development, but too early to get excited.

 

If he can get his AVG to be in that 220-240 range in the majors while keeping those splits, he could be a Max Muncy type with better D and more power. I'd sign up for that.

[THANOS]

As good as Orelvis has been in May it seems like he hit god level over the last 12 days or so. It appears as though opposition pitchers have become afraid to pitch to him, and he's been perfectly willing to take the walks when they are available.

 

His recent splits are nothing like we've seen from Orelvis up to this point and are pretty eye opening. Since May 21 he's produced the following:

 

28.6%BB/12.2%K/2.33BB/K .320 BABIP

 

.343/.531/.743 1.273 OPS 229 WRC+

 

Wow! Thanks for that. If it's available, I'd love to see his Fly Ball % over that span. The AVG is up super high and the BABIP has to be the highest of his career, but his AVG is much higher than his BABIP still, fueled by Nukes no doubt.

 

If the Fly Ball % is also the lowest in his career, maybe the BABIP change is more sustainable than pure luck.

[RustyTrombone]

Orelvis already 1-1 tonight with a double. Batting a cool .200 now.

[max silver]

Wow! Thanks for that. If it's available, I'd love to see his Fly Ball % over that span. The AVG is up super high and the BABIP has to be the highest of his career, but his AVG is much higher than his BABIP still, fueled by Nukes no doubt.

 

If the Fly Ball % is also the lowest in his career, maybe the BABIP change is more sustainable than pure luck.

 

I don't know of anywhere where minor league batted ball data is tracked in that fashion.

[John_Havok]

Wow! Thanks for that. If it's available, I'd love to see his Fly Ball % over that span. The AVG is up super high and the BABIP has to be the highest of his career, but his AVG is much higher than his BABIP still, fueled by Nukes no doubt.

 

If the Fly Ball % is also the lowest in his career, maybe the BABIP change is more sustainable than pure luck.

 

Only thing you can do is go through the game logs on baseball savant day by day from start date to end date and track it manually…as far as I know.

[max silver]

Only thing you can do is go through the game logs on baseball savant day by day from start date to end date and track it manually…as far as I know.

 

I had that thought as well. I'm inherently lazy though so that's a job for someone with more ambition.

[John_Havok]

k, someone said May 21 was the start of the heater so.. . Here's Orelvis stats starting then with the fly ball running totals in brackets. Im checking the game days for the descriptions of the hits also whether they were line drives, grounders or flyballs.

 

May 21 - HR, flyout, groundout, lineout, walk, groundout. (2 flyballs out of 5 batted balls)

May 23 - strikeout, lineout, walk, single(ld) (2 flyballs total out of 7 batted balls)

May 25 - walk, walk, single(ld), strikeout (2 flyballs total out of 8 batted balls)

May 26 - strikeout, single(ld), groundout, walk, walk (2 flyballs out of 10 batted balls)

May 27 - walk, strikeout, groundout, groundout, double (ld), walk, walk, groundout (2 flyballs out of 14 batted balls)

May 28 - HR, walk, flyout, flyout, strikeout (5 flyballs out of 17 batted balls)

May 30 - strikeout, lineout, flyout, groundout, single(flyball) (7 flyballs out of 21 batted balls)

May 31 - flyout, popout, HR, walk (10 flyballs out of 24 batted balls, 1 pop fly included)

June 1 - single(groundball), lineout, walk, HR, double(flyball) (12 flyballs out of 28 batted balls, 1 popfly included)

June 2 - double(groundball), strikeout, flyout, walk (13 flyballs out of 30 batted balls, 1 popfly included)

June 3 - strikeout, groundout, groundout, popout (14 flyballs out of 33 batted balls, 2 popouts included)

 

There ya go. FB rate is 42.4%, Popout rate is 14.3%.

 

54 PAs, 13 walks, 8 strikeouts, 8 line drives, 4 HRs, 3 doubles, 5 singles. 8 hits on 29 balls in play

[wamco]

Now up to 162g at AA for O-Mart.

 

200/289/465 for a 754 ops

 

83r

45 hr

113 rbi

6sb

[max silver]

k, someone said May 21 was the start of the heater so.. . Here's Orelvis stats starting then with the fly ball running totals in brackets. Im checking the game days for the descriptions of the hits also whether they were line drives, grounders or flyballs.

 

May 21 - HR, flyout, groundout, lineout, walk, groundout. (2 flyballs out of 5 batted balls)

May 23 - strikeout, lineout, walk, single(ld) (2 flyballs total out of 7 batted balls)

May 25 - walk, walk, single(ld), strikeout (2 flyballs total out of 8 batted balls)

May 26 - strikeout, single(ld), groundout, walk, walk (2 flyballs out of 10 batted balls)

May 27 - walk, strikeout, groundout, groundout, double (ld), walk, walk, groundout (2 flyballs out of 14 batted balls)

May 28 - HR, walk, flyout, flyout, strikeout (5 flyballs out of 17 batted balls)

May 30 - strikeout, lineout, flyout, groundout, single(flyball) (7 flyballs out of 21 batted balls)

May 31 - flyout, popout, HR, walk (10 flyballs out of 24 batted balls, 1 pop fly included)

June 1 - single(groundball), lineout, walk, HR, double(flyball) (12 flyballs out of 28 batted balls, 1 popfly included)

June 2 - double(groundball), strikeout, flyout, walk (13 flyballs out of 30 batted balls, 1 popfly included)

June 3 - strikeout, groundout, groundout, popout (14 flyballs out of 33 batted balls, 2 popouts included)

 

There ya go. FB rate is 42.4%, Popout rate is 14.3%.

 

54 PAs, 13 walks, 8 strikeouts, 8 line drives, 4 HRs, 3 doubles, 5 singles. 8 hits on 29 balls in play

 

So line drive rate during this period is 8/29 or 27.6%. Ground ball rate is 100 - (Flyball rate of 42.4+27.6 line drive rate) = 30%.

 

Hot streak batted ball profile of:

 

FB% 42.4

GB% 30.0

LD% 27.6

IFFB% 14.3

 

Compare this for season rates of:

FB% 50.4

GB% 33.6

LD% 15.9

IFFB% 21.1

 

During this heater Orelvis has seen a small decrease in ground ball rate, moderate decrease in fly ball rate, large decrease in infield flies, and large increase in line drive rate. All things that would point to a sustainable increase in BABIP if he's to continue with this type of batted ball profile.

Edited June 4, 2023 by max silver

[John_Havok]

So line drive rate during this period is 8/29 or 27.6%. Ground ball rate is 100 - (Flyball rate of 42.4+27.6 line drive rate) = 30%.

 

Hot streak batted ball profile of:

 

FB% 42.4

GB% 30.0

LD% 27.6

IFFB% 14.3

 

Compare this for season rates of:

FB% 50.4

GB% 33.6

LD% 15.9

IFFB% 21.1

 

During this heater Orelvis has seen a small decrease in ground ball rate, moderate decrease in fly ball rate, large decrease in infield flies, and large increase in line drive rate. All things that would point to a sustainable increase in BABIP if he's to continue with this type of batted ball profile.

 

During his heater

 

Large decrease in pop up percentage, but…had he hit just 1 more pop up in there, would have been at 21%.

 

Realistically his heater is fueled by 1 fewer pop up out of 2-3 fewer fly balls, maybe 1 less grounder, and each of those turning into line drives. Plus a monster walk rate.

 

When you think about it that way it seems depressing, but at the same time illustrates the razor thin margins these guys deal with when being considered an elite bat, vs above average, vs average etc

 

Would also be nice to get EV data, though it would probably just confirm that he’s in the elite average ev category

[Jonn]

One of the weirdest stat splits I have probably ever seen lol.

[max silver]

Large decrease in pop up percentage, but…had he hit just 1 more pop up in there, would have been at 21%.

 

Realistically his heater is fueled by 1 fewer pop up out of 2-3 fewer fly balls, maybe 1 less grounder, and each of those turning into line drives. Plus a monster walk rate.

 

When you think about it that way it seems depressing, but at the same time illustrates the razor thin margins these guys deal with when being considered an elite bat, vs above average, vs average etc

 

Would also be nice to get EV data, though it would probably just confirm that he’s in the elite average ev category

 

I haven't heard anything to suggest that Orelvis has been working to flatten his bat path a bit or not or whether he features an extreme line drive swing, just that the coaching staff was continuing to work on improving his swing decisions at the plate. The large increase in walk rate suggests Orelvis has been making much better swing decisions lately. His propensity for high popup rates also suggests that Orelvis has likely been swinging at a lot of pitches at the top or above the strike zone. I suspect that Orelvis may be starting to lay off higher pitches recently which would have the effect of helping some of the flyballs and popups turn into line drives instead.

[Slade]

Every day I look at the farm it looks more depressing than the last.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Fluharty had 4 K's in 1.2 IP and Brock had 3 K's in 1.1 IP at AA yesterday.

 

Both relievers were just recently promoted to AA and are still missing bats so that's good.

[Pendleton]

[Pendleton]

https://www.milb.com/new-hampshire/news/paxton-schultz-promoted-to-triple-a-buffalo

 

The Toronto Blue Jays announced Tuesday that right-handed pitcher Paxton Schultz has been promoted from the New Hampshire Fisher Cats to the Triple-A Buffalo Bisons.

 

In 10 starts with the Fisher Cats this year, Schultz went 3-3 with a 3.30 ERA. He struck out 54 batters in 46.1 innings while issuing just 19 walks. In his final two starts, Schultz allowed one run in 10 innings with one walk and 13 strikeouts.

 

Schultz spent the entire 2022 season with New Hampshire, going 7-6 with a 4.04 ERA in 25 appearances. He made a team-high 20 starts, led the Fisher Cats logging 104.2 innings, and his seven wins were the second-most on the team.

 

The 25-year-old Utah native was originally selected by the Milwaukee Brewers in the 14th round of the 2019 MLB Draft out of Utah Valley University. Schultz was the player to be named later in a 2021 trade for outfielder Derek Fisher.

[Laika]

Nobody talks about Paxton Schultz at all. I can't even find a scouting report on him.

 

But his K-BB numbers are okay and his stuff might also be... not horrible?

 

Here is a two year old video of him throwing 93-95 with a decent looking breaking ball that gets up to 88.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g5nLo7vaWkk

 

In other words, he is probably above Mitchy White on the SP depth chart right now.

[Pendleton]

Nobody talks about Paxton Schultz at all. I can't even find a scouting report on him.

 

But his K-BB numbers are okay and his stuff might also be... not horrible?

 

Here is a two year old video of him throwing 93-95 with a decent looking breaking ball that gets up to 88.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g5nLo7vaWkk

 

In other words, he is probably above Mitchy White on the SP depth chart right now.

 

The breaking ball does look pretty legit. Can see why he'd be a bit overlooked being 25 at AA but seems like he's pitched his way into relevancy.

 

 

So we have Francis called up to the bigs, Schultz to AAA and Trenton Wallace has been promoted to AA.

[Pendleton]

[Spanky99]

2023 Top 100 Prospects

 

After two months of the minor league season, much has changed in the prospect world. Plenty of players have graduated, including three of the top 10 prospects from the preseason: Orioles’ infielder Gunnar Henderson, D-backs outfielder Corbin Carroll and Yankees shortstop Anthony Volpe.

 

Other prospects received their first taste of the big leagues and struggled, like Orioles righthander Grayson Rodriguez and Cardinals outfielder Jordan Walker. Both players were eventually optioned back to Triple-A, though Walker has since returned.

 

Beyond prospects reaching the big leagues for the first time, others have made significant improvements to their prospect stock. Perhaps the most notable in this category is Padres catcher Ethan Salas, who skipped both the DSL and the Arizona Complex League before landing in Low-A two days before he turned 17 years old. Salas’ arrow has pointed straight up since signing in January, and the Padres showed their trust in him early by allowing him to catch bullpens for big leaguers and get his feet wet in a Cactus League game.

 

Among other notable risers is Braves righthander AJ Smith-Shawver. Unranked on the preseason list, Smith-Shawver used a smoothed-out delivery and a new curveball to bull-rush the minor leagues on the way to his big league debut. He made no more than three starts apiece at High-A, Double-A and Triple-A before landing in Atlanta.

 

On the other side of the coin, some prospects have seen their stock take a hit. Nationals outfielder Elijah Green has plenty of impact potential, but the rates of swing and miss he’s shown early in his career make most scouts believe he’ll have serious trouble getting to it at the highest levels.

 

Royals first-rounder Gavin Cross also dropped off from the preseason list for the same reason. Through June 7, the Virginia Tech product was striking out at a rate north of 30% in the High-A Midwest League.

 

These Top 100 updates are fueled by feedback from the industry and data gathered from sources. The list will be updated again later this summer, closer to the midseason trade deadline.

 

By then, players who’ve fallen might rebound and the spring’s biggest risers might come back to Earth. If that happens, we'll make our best effort to reflect the industry’s most up-to-date outlook.

 

 

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Updated on: 6/7/2023

 

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