Official MiLB/Prospects Thread

[Krylian]

The sentence structure displayed here is amazing lol

 

Would've been even better had he turned pro in the 3rd inning.

[John_Havok]

Swing decisions, pitch recognition, quality of contact. Worry less about pop ups and more that a 20 year old dominating AA in the power department is continuously improving in areas

 

The fact that he gets so many pop ups is evidence that those 3 areas you mentioned are not where they need to be. Yes, lots of HRs, but with everything else, still just barely a league average bat at 101 wRC+.

 

There’s LOTS of work to do with him yet. HRs are great, but how many outs you make when you’re not hitting HRs is very important and right now, he’s making way too many. Also only has 1 more minor league season before he needs to be added to the 40 man roster.

[Daniel Labude]

The fact that he gets so many pop ups is evidence that those 3 areas you mentioned are not where they need to be. Yes, lots of HRs, but with everything else, still just barely a league average bat at 101 wRC+.

 

There’s LOTS of work to do with him yet. HRs are great, but how many outs you make when you’re not hitting HRs is very important and right now, he’s making way too many. Also only has 1 more minor league season before he needs to be added to the 40 man roster.

 

You really shouldn't base your opinion of a 20 year old on a pop up statistic that includes the whole season. He has been walking more, hitting more line drives, more 0 and 1 K games, still has the power, all while being 20 in AA. If your expectation is he will be Tatis make a more realistic outlook. He has been good for a 20 year old in AA and is improving where he needs to while making changes

[John_Havok]

You really shouldn't base your opinion of a 20 year old on a pop up statistic that includes the whole season. He has been walking more, hitting more line drives, more 0 and 1 K games, still has the power, all while being 20 in AA. If your expectation is he will be Tatis make a more realistic outlook. He has been good for a 20 year old in AA and is improving where he needs to while making changes

 

My opinion is there’s lots of work to do left and he’s not ready for the major leagues in any way, shape, or form at this moment in time. That’s an entirely defensible position that also allows for improvement, which I hope happens.

 

Just because I’m not anointing him as the next Vlad Jr doesn’t mean I don’t like the fact that he’s in the system.

 

As it stands now he’d be lucky to have a career like Miguel Sano, I’m kinda hoping for more than a .5-3 WAR player who’s career is pretty much over at 29 because he could never make enough contact to take real advantage of his power.

[Blazeit420]

Cade Doughty with another HR today (4th of the year). Off to a great start in Dunedin.

[InsideThePark]

Cade Doughty with another HR today (4th of the year). Off to a great start in Dunedin.

 

Make that 4 and 5 on the year

[Spanky__99]

My opinion is there’s lots of work to do left and he’s not ready for the major leagues in any way, shape, or form at this moment in time. That’s an entirely defensible position that also allows for improvement, which I hope happens.

 

Just because I’m not anointing him as the next Vlad Jr doesn’t mean I don’t like the fact that he’s in the system.

 

As it stands now he’d be lucky to have a career like Miguel Sano, I’m kinda hoping for more than a .5-3 WAR player who’s career is pretty much over at 29 because he could never make enough contact to take real advantage of his power.

 

Dude, nobody's saying that, lets see what he does next season repeating AA, he's been alright as a 20 year old, I'm assuming we'll see positive regression. Sano was far better at 22 in AA... Wow!

[John_Havok]

Dude, nobody's saying that, lets see what he does next season repeating AA, he's been alright as a 20 year old, I'm assuming we'll see positive regression. Sano was far better at 22 in AA... Wow!

 

Scroll back a bit, apparently not being over the moon with Martinez is a sin.

[Spanky__99]

Scroll back a bit, apparently not being over the moon with Martinez is a sin.

 

Yeah, can't say s*** about Vlad or Orelvis, bro.

[Daniel Labude]

Cade Doughty with another HR today (4th of the year). Off to a great start in Dunedin.

 

K rate is terrible for a 21 year old in A ball. On to the next prospect, i hear good things about Dingleberry Buntsalot. His numbers sure do past the popups/age/level test

[Daniel Labude]

My opinion is there’s lots of work to do left and he’s not ready for the major leagues in any way, shape, or form at this moment in time. That’s an entirely defensible position that also allows for improvement, which I hope happens.

 

Just because I’m not anointing him as the next Vlad Jr doesn’t mean I don’t like the fact that he’s in the system.

 

As it stands now he’d be lucky to have a career like Miguel Sano, I’m kinda hoping for more than a .5-3 WAR player who’s career is pretty much over at 29 because he could never make enough contact to take real advantage of his power.

 

You can have that opinion and there is definitely work to be done and he has continously been doing it. Once they find a swing, approach, timing mechanism, 2 strike approach and mechanism, etc that works and they like he will quickly improve. The more he can go longer than 1 month without a change the better the onfield results will be. But to use a season long statistic complaining about pop ups from a 20 year old in AA is just wrong

[Daniel Labude]

1-3 with a HR and BB...0 Ks today

 

[InsideThePark]

1-3 with a HR and BB...0 Ks today

 

 

I don't care how many HR's he hits, how many pop ups did he have? /s

[Daniel Labude]

I don't care how many HR's he hits, how many pop ups did he have? /s

 

[Laika]

ignore everything else

if all you look at is this, knowing this is 2019 Rookie ball, 2021 A, 2021 A+, and this year 2022 AA...

 

 

 

... Orelvis looks to be progressing just fine, right?

 

Ks spiked at AA and need to come down a but the BB% trend is steady and good enough and the ISO is great and the K% isn't atrocious atrocious.

 

like it's very much in the realm of possibility for him to make some minor changes and have a K% in the low 20s next year in AAA

[metafour]

Moreno is up to .322/.389/.415

Otto Lopez is up to .296/.381/.437

 

Both guys have been hitting well recently.

 

Another fun look-in: Jordan Groshans is hitting .346/.452/.500 in 15 games since being traded. He has 5 doubles and a HR (he had just 8 doubles and a HR in 67-games prior to being traded). Maybe I shouldn't have made fun of him!

[AMS528]

Moreno is up to .322/.389/.415

Otto Lopez is up to .296/.381/.437

 

Both guys have been hitting well recently.

 

Another fun look-in: Jordan Groshans is hitting .346/.452/.500 in 15 games since being traded. He has 5 doubles and a HR (he had just 8 doubles and a HR in 67-games prior to being traded). Maybe I shouldn't have made fun of him!

 

 

More walks than strikeouts as well. 62 PA is a pretty small but not completely insignificant sample size, when it comes to showing a bit power.

 

Also move over Orelvis Martinez. Cade Doughty with 5 HR's in 41 AB's. That is some fun early power.

[Terminator]

ignore everything else

if all you look at is this, knowing this is 2019 Rookie ball, 2021 A, 2021 A+, and this year 2022 AA...

 

 

 

... Orelvis looks to be progressing just fine, right?

 

Ks spiked at AA and need to come down a but the BB% trend is steady and good enough and the ISO is great and the K% isn't atrocious atrocious.

 

like it's very much in the realm of possibility for him to make some minor changes and have a K% in the low 20s next year in AAA

 

Yeah I agree. The K's are a concern but I don't think he should be getting dinged on lists to the level that he has. Maybe it limits how high he can climb on your Top 100; but to move him down dozens of spots, or even take him off your list entirely? He's going end up with 30+ homers in AA at age 20.

 

One thing I'm not entirely sure on is why he's running such low BABIP's. Is there any sort of minor league launch angle data on him?

 

EDIT: I see the previous discussions on IFFBB% now

[Laika]

Yeah I agree. The K's are a concern but I don't think he should be getting dinged on lists to the level that he has. Maybe it limits how high he can climb on your Top 100; but to move him down dozens of spots, or even take him off your list entirely? He's going end up with 30+ homers in AA at age 20.

 

One thing I'm not entirely sure on is why he's running such low BABIP's. Is there any sort of minor league launch angle data on him?

 

EDIT: I see the previous discussions on IFFBB% now

 

yeah he's obviously an extreme flyball hitter and gets under everything to the detriment of his BABIP

 

buuuuuut of all swing plane "issues" that one might not be that bad. all they need to do is bring down that average launch angle just a tiny bit. turn a few popups into flyballs

[John_Havok]

Yeah I agree. The K's are a concern but I don't think he should be getting dinged on lists to the level that he has. Maybe it limits how high he can climb on your Top 100; but to move him down dozens of spots, or even take him off your list entirely? He's going end up with 30+ homers in AA at age 20.

 

One thing I'm not entirely sure on is why he's running such low BABIP's. Is there any sort of minor league launch angle data on him?

 

EDIT: I see the previous discussions on IFFBB% now

 

Yeah, people seem to think i'm concerned with the K rate... which I am, but the K rate is probably an easier fix than the other concerning aspects of his game.

 

Like, sure, fixing the K rate but not fixing the launch angle issue gives a few more HRs per year, but not very much else. To be a great hitter, you have to be doing something productive when youre not hitting HRs or taking walks. Right now, he's not doing a whole lot in the PAs that dont get those 2 results.

 

Comparing his #'s Miguel Sano is easy, since they are both were 20 at AA, and very similar hitters with massive power and big K numbers. But if you look at Sano's other numbers (LD rate, IFFB rate, WRC+) from when he was in AA to what Orelvis is doing now, it's not flattering for Orelvis.

 

Doesnt mean it cant be fixed of course, but personally, I'm not as optimistic as many seem to be.

[Laika]

Yeah, people seem to think i'm concerned with the K rate... which I am, but the K rate is probably an easier fix than the other concerning aspects of his game.

 

Like, sure, fixing the K rate but not fixing the launch angle issue gives a few more HRs per year, but not very much else. To be a great hitter, you have to be doing something productive when youre not hitting HRs or taking walks. Right now, he's not doing a whole lot in the PAs that dont get those 2 results.

 

Comparing his #'s Miguel Sano is easy, since they are both were 20 at AA, and very similar hitters with massive power and big K numbers. But if you look at Sano's other numbers (LD rate, IFFB rate, WRC+) from when he was in AA to what Orelvis is doing now, it's not flattering for Orelvis.

 

Doesnt mean it cant be fixed of course, but personally, I'm not as optimistic as many seem to be.

 

careful with MiLB batted ball categorizations, it's just stringer data and it's calculated weird sometimes

[Orgfiller]

Yeah, people seem to think i'm concerned with the K rate... which I am, but the K rate is probably an easier fix than the other concerning aspects of his game.

 

Like, sure, fixing the K rate but not fixing the launch angle issue gives a few more HRs per year, but not very much else. To be a great hitter, you have to be doing something productive when youre not hitting HRs or taking walks. Right now, he's not doing a whole lot in the PAs that dont get those 2 results.

 

Comparing his #'s Miguel Sano is easy, since they are both were 20 at AA, and very similar hitters with massive power and big K numbers. But if you look at Sano's other numbers (LD rate, IFFB rate, WRC+) from when he was in AA to what Orelvis is doing now, it's not flattering for Orelvis.

 

Doesnt mean it cant be fixed of course, but personally, I'm not as optimistic as many seem to be.

 

Is Sano even a cautionary tale as a hitting prospect? I don't think Sano is out of the league because he can't hit or the high Ks caught up to him, as he has a career 115 wRC+, it's that he ballooned in size significantly from his time in the minors and became a full time DH, and that's where the good-not-great offensive output cost him. The defensively adept version of Miguel Sano is Joey Gallo and he's been a very valuable player in his MLB career. If Orelvis is somewhere in between those guys as an ~80 power, high Ks guy with a good defensive home the Blue Jays are taking that every time in the developmental process.

 

Now, he may not be either of those, because it's true that both had much better success as 20 year olds in AA and higher prospect pedigrees than Orelvis seems to have. But my point is, so what if he's Miguel Sano offensively? Couple that guy with even passable SS defense or say, above-average 3B and that's a very valuable player under cheap team control.

[Orgfiller]

This is Miguel Sano as an amateur.

 

 

This is Miguel Sano in the minors.

 

http://images.thepostgame.com/assets/public/AP13032106500_BP.jpg

 

Miguel Sano as a 23 year old in his second full MLB season:

 

[Jimcanuck]

Thought Sano was going to be an absolute beast. Before realizing his between the ears issues.

[Ray]

Addison Barger just hit another home run.

 

[Ray]

Keith Law was saying on Jays Talk Plus yesterday that Barger has elevated himself to the point where he might be considered above a util guy in the majors. Could be regular player.

 

Doesn’t turn 23 until November and still tearing up AA. Definitely intriguing.

[John Balkabella]

Orelvis now under the Mendoza Line, and still rockin that 29.7 K%.

[Jonn]

This is Miguel Sano as an amateur.

 

 

This is Miguel Sano in the minors.

 

http://images.thepostgame.com/assets/public/AP13032106500_BP.jpg

 

Miguel Sano as a 23 year old in his second full MLB season:

 

 

So he discovered American Fast food and it all went downhill from there.

[Blazeit420]

Groshans already has 2 HR in Jacksonville. What the f***.

[Krylian]

Groshans already has 2 HR in Jacksonville. What the f***.

 

ROY in 2023