Official MiLB/Prospects Thread

[Dagagad]

BA sleeping big time on Zulu and Frasso or just straight up goofed.

 

I was thinking this. Also much higher on beltre than I guess fangraphs will be next update. Maybe, these things didn’t develop fast enough for the update.

 

Also, I’ve never actually ever heard Jean Carlos Joseph’s name before. He must have some hype in the complex.

 

Thanks Laika for the info!

[InsideThePark]

Not having Zulueta is crazy but having Gabby Martinez way down at 30 means he's not just an oversight and that's crazy as well. Gabby Martinez should be top 15. Frasso should be in there somewhere as well.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Frasso only pitched 4 innings last season and I think 10 innings so far this season. Might be why they're sleeping on him.

[InsideThePark]

My top 30:

 

Moreno

O.Martinez

Tiedemann

Groshans

Jimenez

 

Robberse

Zulueta

Beltre

G.Martinez

Santos

 

Lopez

Juenger

Carter

Machado

De Castro

 

Pinto

Palmer

Van Eyk

Kloffenstein

T.Morris

 

Taylor

Meza

Frasso

Dallas

Hernandez

 

Danner

Aponte

Francis

Hiraldo

Britton

[Jimcanuck]

Tiedeman is 89 in today's BA Top 100 update

 

Moreno #5 and Orelvis down to #90

[Grant77]

Tiedeman is 89 in today's BA Top 100 update

 

Moreno #5 and Orelvis down to #90

 

It's shocking to see Orelvis drop after taking AA by storm as a 20 year old. The .216 BABIP makes his numbers look a bit worse than they are and the K numbers aren't all that concerning for a player at his age and level.

 

I don't know how they can argue that his stock has gone down (significantly) and not up.

[max silver]

It's shocking to see Orelvis drop after taking AA by storm as a 20 year old. The .216 BABIP makes his numbers look a bit worse than they are and the K numbers aren't all that concerning for a player at his age and level.

 

I don't know how they can argue that his stock has gone down (significantly) and not up.

 

I'm not sure the batted ball profile that Martinez is currently featuring is going to ever lead to a very high BABIP. He's very flyball heavy at 52%, and hits a ton of infield flyballs as well at 26.9%. He had a similar profile although even more extreme profile in high A in 2021 as well, and had a low .197 BABIP there as well. This is strictly stat scouting as I haven't had a chance to watch him play much, but when you look at his numbers it seems as though his swing is geared almost exclusively towards a high launch angle, which by it's nature is going to maximize his home run output at the expense of producing line drives, which are far more likely to fall in for hits.

[Grant77]

I'm not sure the batted ball profile that Martinez is currently featuring is going to ever lead to a very high BABIP. He's very flyball heavy at 52%, and hits a ton of infield flyballs as well at 26.9%. He had a similar profile although even more extreme profile in high A in 2021 as well, and had a low .197 BABIP there as well. This is strictly stat scouting as I haven't had a chance to watch him play much, but when you look at his numbers it seems as though his swing is geared almost exclusively towards a high launch angle, which by it's nature is going to maximize his home run output at the expense of producing line drives, which are far more likely to fall in for hits.

 

I think you're correct in your reasoning, but even with similarly extreme profiles, it is exceedingly rare for a player to put up a BABIP that low over an extended period. Jose Bautista was routinely one of the lowest players in the league and settled in around a .250 BABIP.

 

Even ignoring that altogether, he's still putting up a 120 wRC+. In AA at age 20. That's very impressive.

[Krylian]

It's shocking to see Orelvis drop after taking AA by storm as a 20 year old. The .216 BABIP makes his numbers look a bit worse than they are and the K numbers aren't all that concerning for a player at his age and level.

 

I don't know how they can argue that his stock has gone down (significantly) and not up.

 

Batting avridge

[connorp]

I think you're correct in your reasoning, but even with similarly extreme profiles, it is exceedingly rare for a player to put up a BABIP that low over an extended period. Jose Bautista was routinely one of the lowest players in the league and settled in around a .250 BABIP.

 

Even ignoring that altogether, he's still putting up a 120 wRC+. In AA at age 20. That's very impressive.

 

Is it that impressive though? Like legit Top 25 guy? I would wager having wRC+ come primarily from homers you likely won’t be hitting against superior pitching makes for a worse projection going up

[Daniel Labude]

It's shocking to see Orelvis drop after taking AA by storm as a 20 year old. The .216 BABIP makes his numbers look a bit worse than they are and the K numbers aren't all that concerning for a player at his age and level.

 

I don't know how they can argue that his stock has gone down (significantly) and not up.

 

I dont know what they had him at, but not shocking considering how they do their ratings. C, SS, CF are all boosted for defensive purposes. They probably view him now as a 3B going forward and their rankings are basically 33% bat, 33% defense, 33% speed

[Daniel Labude]

Is it that impressive though? Like legit Top 25 guy? I would wager having wRC+ come primarily from homers you likely won’t be hitting against superior pitching makes for a worse projection going up

 

Yes, very impressive if you also look at what has been going on under the swing all season. They have been working to find a setup and 2 strike approach that Orelvis likes and is successful with. Something has changed every few weeks this season. Being able to put up those numbers at his age in AA, while making changes so frequently is very very very impressive

[max silver]

I think you're correct in your reasoning, but even with similarly extreme profiles, it is exceedingly rare for a player to put up a BABIP that low over an extended period. Jose Bautista was routinely one of the lowest players in the league and settled in around a .250 BABIP.

 

Even ignoring that altogether, he's still putting up a 120 wRC+. In AA at age 20. That's very impressive.

 

Bautista is an interesting comparable, however he never displayed as extreme of a batted ball profile as Martinez has, especially in terms of pop-ups. The infield fly ball by nature is the largest culprit for killing BABIP values as it's an automatic out nearly every time it occurs. When you combine Martinez's 52% flyball rate with a 26.9% infield flyball rate, you have 14% of his batted balls becoming automatic outs. In 2021 in high A this was even more extreme, with 19% of his batted balls becoming automatic outs. By comparison Bautista's most extreme flyball rate during his heyday as a Jay was his 2010 season where he produced a 54.5% flyball rate, however his infield fly percentage was much more under control at only 14.9%. This only lead to 8% of his batted ball events becoming automatic outs by comparison, so it stands to reason to expect that his BABIP value would be much more palatable as a result.

 

Martinez very likely could benefit from levelling out his swing a touch. The homeruns he tends to hit are blasts that easily leave the ballpark, however this extreme launch angle is also likely leading to a lot of easy outs as a result when he doesn't fully connect. I can agree that the 120 WRC+ as a 20 year is very impressive, however there are also plenty of red flags in his statistical profile that could potentially end up limiting his overall impact in MLB if he isn't able to continue to improve over time.

[L54]

From May 1 - June 1 for Orelvis

 

BB 9.2% K 24.5%

 

.244/.337/.547

 

wRC+ 139

 

The first month numbers were obviously concerning but gotta give him time to make adjustments during his first taste of AA. If he was still walking 2% of the time and whiffing 30% there would be way more questions.

[Brownie19]

Didn't Votto got like 8 years without having an infield pop-up? That's such an insane stat.

[vaff]

Orelvis isn’t exactly alone in having strikeout issues this year, either. It seems like a lot of prospects have high strikeout rates.

[connorp]

Yes, very impressive if you also look at what has been going on under the swing all season. They have been working to find a setup and 2 strike approach that Orelvis likes and is successful with. Something has changed every few weeks this season. Being able to put up those numbers at his age in AA, while making changes so frequently is very very very impressive

 

Not totally dumping on him…. Just saying he’s not one of guys sitting in the 25-50 range who take that clear next level step. Still a work in progress for sure. Can make fun of BA all you want, but I’d imagine Avg is up there with K/BB rate and what separates the Adell kind of guys from guys that adapt to mlb quicker

[L54]

I don’t think Orelvis is a top 50 prospect either. Way too many question marks as it stands plus sliding to 3B.

 

Not many comps that I can think of. A Joey Gallo/Ryan Mountcastle hybrid

[Laika]

Yeah top ~50 or so prospects are a level above.

 

When I looked at career WAR vs prospect rankings, my take away from the curves was that prospects in the 51 to 150 range, roughly speaking, are basically equivalent.

 

This is illustrated by Fangraphs' rankings on The Board. If you look at their 2021 board, prospect #49 was a 50 FV and that 50 FV runs all the way to prospect 137.

 

So the question with Orelvis is basically.... do you think he's a 55 or 60 FV and therefore a top 50 dude, or is he a 50 FV player? If the latter then he could rank 55th or 140th and it wouldn't make much difference to me.

 

I can understand why a scouting clique might watch him this year and just decide that the tools are not going to play above a 50 FV at the MLB level.

[InsideThePark]

Does anyone have the BA list? I'm kind of curious how many 2021 draft picks are ahead of Tiedemann. Was looking at the MLB list last night and was caught off guard by Benny Montgomery the 8th overall pick not being there but Tiedemann was. Would he literally be a top 10 pick in a redraft?

[Laika]

Does anyone have the BA list? I'm kind of curious how many 2021 draft picks are ahead of Tiedemann. Was looking at the MLB list last night and was caught off guard by Benny Montgomery the 8th overall pick not being there but Tiedemann was. Would he literally be a top 10 pick in a redraft?

 

I think he would. Certainly top part of round 1.

 

Here are the 2021 draftees in the top 100

 

Mayer - 12

Lawlar - 13

Leiter - 24

Davis - 34

Painter - 58

House - 65

Williams - 71 (Gavin)

Jobe - 84

Watson - 88

Tiedemann - 89

Williams - 91 (Carson)

McLain - 93

Frelick - 95

[Eat My Shatkins]

Pearson pitched for the Bisons tonight.

 

2 innings, 1 hit, 1 walk, 1 run, 2 Ks

25 pitches, 14 strikes

 

Pretty average, but hopefully just fine tuning things

[InsideThePark]

Zulueta 5 innings of 1 hit, 1 walk, 5 K shutout ball tonight for Vancouver.

[JFD]

Can't see Tiedemann tomorrow because of other priorities... f***!

[Ray]

Bowden Francis got roughed up today. 5 ER in 1.1 innings which brings his AAA season ERA to 8.82. Thomas Hatch is still struggling in AAA. Anthony Kay hasn’t pitched anywhere since April 22nd (and isn’t on the minor league DL either).

 

Kind of sucks that none of them have progressed enough to be viable major league pitchers. I especially had high hopes for Hatch, who showed impressive stuff in 2020. Maybe not as a starter, but definitely a long man or a bulk guy.

[Laika]

Bowden Francis got roughed up today. 5 ER in 1.1 innings which brings his AAA season ERA to 8.82. Thomas Hatch is still struggling in AAA. Anthony Kay hasn’t pitched anywhere since April 22nd (and isn’t on the minor league DL either).

 

Kind of sucks that none of them have progressed enough to be viable major league pitchers. I especially had high hopes for Hatch, who showed impressive stuff in 2020. Maybe not as a starter, but definitely a long man or a bulk guy.

 

Yeah time to pull the SP plug on some of them I think.

[Spanky__99]

Yeah time to pull the SP plug on some of them I think.

 

No doubt, Hatch will play up as a reliever.

[Spanky__99]

Yeah time to pull the SP plug on some of them I think.

 

Post the full listing please, you plug. lol

[Laika]

f*** you

[FantasyNewb]

Can someone post BAs full updated prospect list?