Official MiLB/Prospects Thread

[Virgil_Hiltz]

Re Smith...I suspect he's in play for 3rd base to start the season, maybe not long term but maybe to enhance his trade value for 3rd base man, if we are acquiring an established 3rd base man...the trade partner will need to replace him with someone.

This front office values prospects and I suspect they want to see what he can do before sentencing to a career in AAA.... nothing more, nothing less.

[BlueRocky]

Isn't Groshans expected to stick at 3B though?

 

I wouldn’t be surprised if one of the three ends up in OF, possibly Groshans.

[G-Snarls]

I wouldn’t be surprised if one of the three ends up in OF, possibly Groshans.

 

This just furthers my feelings that the big league club needs a solid, established 3B on a short contract while we let Biggio play 2B and let those 3 sort themselves out in the minors

Edited December 3, 2021 by G-Snarls

[Grant77]

This just furthers my feelings that the big league club needs a solid, established 3B on a short contract while we let Biggio play 2B

 

We missed out on a good opportunity to to that when we didn't grab Joey Wendle for a prospect in our 11-20 range. I think they are probably looking bigger

[Ehjays]

We missed out on a good opportunity to to that when we didn't grab Joey Wendle for a prospect in our 11-20 range. I think they are probably looking bigger

 

THAT or Tampa did not wish to trade within the division

[Jimcanuck]

We missed out on a good opportunity to to that when we didn't grab Joey Wendle for a prospect in our 11-20 range. I think they are probably looking bigger

 

Steamer predicts Wendle wRC+ at 90, and Espinal at 91. And Espinal superior defensively.

[Grant77]

Steamer predicts Wendle wRC+ at 90, and Espinal at 91. And Espinal superior defensively.

 

That would be a rather unexpected outcome for a player that has been comfortably above 100 for the last couple of seasons and for his career. Steamer projections are often misleading and this is certainly one of those cases.

[Jimcanuck]

That would be a rather unexpected outcome for a player that has been comfortably above 100 for the last couple of seasons and for his career. Steamer projections are often misleading and this is certainly one of those cases.

 

Steamer >>>> Grant

 

Look at BABIP. Normal BABIP Wendle doesn't eclipse 100.

[Grant77]

Steamer >>>> Grant

 

Look at BABIP. Normal BABIP Wendle doesn't eclipse 100.

 

Doubtful.

 

Put your money where your mouth is. I'll bet you $20 that Wendle has a higher wRC+ that Espinal with a minimum of 200 PA's.

[Jimcanuck]

Doubtful.

 

Put your money where your mouth is. I'll bet you $20 that Wendle has a higher wRC+ that Espinal with a minimum of 200 PA's.

 

Nah, cuz that is likely to happen. But the difference between the two is too small to warrant trading someone and DFA'ing someone on the 40 in order to make room for Wendle.

 

And besides, even if Wendle beats Espinal in wRC+ by a few points, Espinal superior defense more than offsets that.

[max silver]

Doubtful.

 

Put your money where your mouth is. I'll bet you $20 that Wendle has a higher wRC+ that Espinal with a minimum of 200 PA's.

 

Espinal's career WRC+ of 106 is higher than Wendle's career WRC+ of 103. This isn't exactly the clash of the titans here.

[Grant77]

Nah, cuz that is likely to happen. But the difference between the two is too small to warrant trading someone and DFA'ing someone on the 40 in order to make room for Wendle.

 

And besides, even if Wendle beats Espinal in wRC+ by a few points, Espinal superior defense more than offsets that.

 

So my prediction is more likely to come true than Steamer in your view. That's very interesting.

[Jimcanuck]

So my prediction is more likely to come true than Steamer in your view. That's very interesting.

 

Yeah I share your view that Wendle is better than Espiral with the bat, but ever so slightly. Very similar players.

[connorp]

So my prediction is more likely to come true than Steamer in your view. That's very interesting.

 

I don’t think there was enough there to spike the football

[Laika]

Yeah I share your view that Wendle is better than Espiral with the bat, but ever so slightly. Very similar players.

 

I don't think they are that similar. Wendle is better. I don't believe in Espinal's stick at all.

[Laika]

When you see something like Steamer projecting a 91 wRC+ for Espinal and 90 wRC+ for Wendle...

 

...you have to understand that EVEN IF you accept those mean projections as sensible, they don't say much about the error bars, or the range of outcomes.

 

If we apply some common sense, you can all acknowledge that Santiago Espinal basically has s***** Ryan Goins downside. It is entirely possible that his offense in 2021 was a complete mirage; pure BABIP luck. To wit, his wRC+ and BABIP in 2021 in the MLB were both higher than his recent MiLB seasons, and we are talking about a small MLB sample size. He does not hit the ball hard. How many of his hits in 2021 were borderline bloops that just died in between the infield and outfield?

 

So Espinal's, say, 10th percentile outcome is "below replacement level" and his 30th percentile outcome might even be something like "replacement level 70 wRC+ hitter".

 

Compare to Wendle who has 1600 MLB PA and has never been a bad player. Wendle might actually have a decent chance to be replacement level or better, and his downside risks are not anywhere close to Espinal's.

 

I suppose that Steamer is down on Wendle's bat because of age and 2021 K rate? It seems weird though that it even projects him for such a low mark.

 

Some might reply that Espinal's 95th percentile outcome is better than Wendle's. Perhaps Espinal in a best case scenario is a defensive wizard with a sneaky good hit tool, like a poor team's Andrelton Simmons. I guess I could buy that argument even if it's fanciful.

[Jimcanuck]

I don't think they are that similar. Wendle is better. I don't believe in Espinal's stick at all.

 

Espinal's 12% K, 9% BB rates sets a pretty solid floor for him as a hitter.

[Jimcanuck]

When you see something like Steamer projecting a 91 wRC+ for Espinal and 90 wRC+ for Wendle...

 

...you have to understand that EVEN IF you accept those mean projections as sensible, they don't say much about the error bars, or the range of outcomes.

 

If we apply some common sense, you can all acknowledge that Santiago Espinal basically has s***** Ryan Goins downside. It is entirely possible that his offense in 2021 was a complete mirage; pure BABIP luck. To wit, his wRC+ and BABIP in 2021 in the MLB were both higher than his recent MiLB seasons, and we are talking about a small MLB sample size. He does not hit the ball hard. How many of his hits in 2021 were borderline bloops that just died in between the infield and outfield?

 

So Espinal's, say, 10th percentile outcome is "below replacement level" and his 30th percentile outcome might even be something like "replacement level 70 wRC+ hitter".

 

Compare to Wendle who has 1600 MLB PA and has never been a bad player. Wendle might actually have a decent chance to be replacement level or better, and his downside risks are not anywhere close to Espinal's.

 

I suppose that Steamer is down on Wendle's bat because of age and 2021 K rate? It seems weird though that it even projects him for such a low mark.

 

Some might reply that Espinal's 95th percentile outcome is better than Wendle's. Perhaps Espinal in a best case scenario is a defensive wizard with a sneaky good hit tool, like a poor team's Andrelton Simmons. I guess I could buy that argument even if it's fanciful.

 

Time for a Can Santiago Espinal Stick? thread.

[Laika]

Espinal's 12% K, 9% BB rates sets a pretty solid floor for him as a hitter.

 

Average exit velocity was 390th out of 404 hitters to have at least 100 batted ball events.

 

His floor is pretty bad. Like, not in the MLB. Many pitchers hit the ball with more authority.

[connorp]

Average exit velocity was 390th out of 404 hitters to have at least 100 batted ball events.

 

His floor is pretty bad. Like, not in the MLB. Many pitchers hit the ball with more authority.

 

But does he know where to aim them?

[Laika]

But does he know where to aim them?

 

so far so good here.

 

he was a ball placement artist in 2021. it was beautiful.

[Jimcanuck]

Average exit velocity was 390th out of 404 hitters to have at least 100 batted ball events.

 

His floor is pretty bad. Like, not in the MLB. Many pitchers hit the ball with more authority.

 

The comparison is between Wendle and Espinal, not the rest of MLB.

 

Espinal EV 84.8, Wendle 87.9.

 

A bit of a difference. Offset by the K rate difference?

[Laika]

The comparison is between Wendle and Espinal, not the rest of MLB.

 

Espinal EV 84.8, Wendle 87.9.

 

A bit of a difference. Offset by the K rate difference?

 

87.9 is 263rd out of 404

 

we are talking about 35th percentile vs 4th percentile, Jim. It's like, an entire standard deviation of difference on a normal distribution. So it's not just "a bit different".

[Laika]

You need to adjust your lens for everything.

 

Think in terms of normal distributions / standard deviations, probabilistic outcomes, and bayesian methods.

 

The bayesian part is what a lot of public saber people can struggle with, I think.

[Jimcanuck]

You need to adjust your lens for everything.

 

Think in terms of normal distributions / standard deviations, probabilistic outcomes, and bayesian methods.

 

Ya, ya, ya. And in terms of the real world, the difference is of limited impact, given the difference in K rate among other things. Projection systems do this multi-parameter review for us.

 

Think big picture, my man.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Hopefully Espinal is on the juice this winter.

 

Comes back in 2022 with popeye forearms and f***ing mashes.

 

No one will ever know.

[Laika]

Ya, ya, ya. And in terms of the real world, the difference is of limited impact, given the difference in K rate among other things. Projection systems do this multi-parameter review for us.

 

Think big picture, my man.

 

Sort of.

 

Teams have more sophisticated measurements and projections than Steamer. It's not like Steamer has solved baseball projections and front offices aren't needed anymore.

[Jimcanuck]

Sort of.

 

Teams have more sophisticated measurements and projections than Steamer. It's not like Steamer has solved baseball projections and front offices aren't needed anymore.

 

Agreed but Steamer is better than looking at individual parameters and using them to say player x is better than player y. While every assessment method has limitations, whether they be the publicly available ones or the proprietary team ones, the best comparison tool we have is Steamer and the like.

[connorp]

Sort of.

 

Teams have more sophisticated measurements and projections than Steamer. It's not like Steamer has solved baseball projections and front offices aren't needed anymore.

 

Jim is getting the better of you here. Simply say your gut says Wendle’s bat will be better next year and call it a day

[Laika]

Jim is getting the better of you here. Simply say your gut says Wendle’s bat will be better next year and call it a day

 

It's not JUST a gut feel thing. From watching them play, I guess the most specific thing I could say is that I think there is a subjective luck component for Espinal's MLB data that is tricking Steamer.

 

I would not be shocked if the other projection systems show bigger differences between the two players.