Official MiLB/Prospects Thread

[KevinGregg]

RE: Ryan Noda, Chad Spanberger

 

https://www.radioscouts.com/blog/stat-scouting-the-minors-z-scores-for-a-ball-hitters

 

Great article

Some statistical justification for why kevin smith might be even better than we think too

[Jimcanuck]

Kevin Pillar is viciously underrated, somehow, after being previously very overrated.

 

He's durable, reliable, consistently league average with equivalent projections, he is 29 with two years of control, and he doesn't cost much.

 

His 10.1 fWAR over the last four seasons makes him a top ~30 outfielder in baseball. f***, you can do a lot worse than that. And depending which religion you belong to he might be significantly better - his bWAR is a much higher 13.5 over than span (his career DRS is double his UZR!!!).

 

I don't like watching him hit either, but c'mon. I am very much opposed to trading him just for the sake of an Anthony Alford trial-by-turf.

 

Age catches up to everyone. Trade Pillar before he has no value.

[Terminator]

Kevin Pillar is viciously underrated, somehow, after being previously very overrated.

 

He's durable, reliable, consistently league average with equivalent projections, he is 29 with two years of control, and he doesn't cost much.

 

His 10.1 fWAR over the last four seasons makes him a top ~30 outfielder in baseball. f***, you can do a lot worse than that. And depending which religion you belong to he might be significantly better - his bWAR is a much higher 13.5 over than span (his career DRS is double his UZR!!!).

 

I don't like watching him hit either, but c'mon. I am very much opposed to trading him just for the sake of an Anthony Alford trial-by-turf.

 

I agree that he's a fine player and with his age 30 and 31 year old seasons under control we will probably get two more years of the same ole Pillar. Only reason to move him is because we are rebuilding this year and next so his control coincides with years where I won't expect us to be competitive. I can't see us extending him either. So I wouldn't mind seeing him go but it needs to be for something decent I wouldn't give him away.

[Laika]

I don't think fans underrate his career as a Blue Jay. But he's a very easy player to project being bad going forward. He's 30 years old tomorrow so this is his age 30 season and his defence is declining and will decline further. His bat is hopeless. He could be a minus player next year quite easily I think. It's possible his expected decline is actually underrated.

 

His BB% and K% both went in the wrong direction last year and his plate discipline metrics are basically exactly the same as when he K'd 23% and 26% in his first 2 seasons. So it's a bit of a surprise he only K'd 18% last year. I think it's a very ominous sign for his bat which is already bad.

 

All of this information gets fed into the projection machine, which still expects him to be a 2 win player next year. The plate discipline stuff is really pretty minor - still within a bat toss of his career rates. The bat is annoying but a ~90 wRC+ player is hardly horrendous. Even if the defense has declined, the advanced numbers caught it last year, I guess, and I don't see why it would just fall off a cliff for him at 29/30. We could also choose to cherry pick some positives, like the fact that his ISO was up a bit last year (maybe explains the higher K rate - trying to hit the ball harder) and he was a smarter baserunner which the fancy stats noticed.

 

He has no appreciable upside beyond variance within what we know he is, but I think his downside is also limited because defense and speed and contact rarely slump for extended periods of time.

[Laika]

I agree that he's a fine player and with his age 30 and 31 year old seasons under control we will probably get two more years of the same ole Pillar. Only reason to move him is because we are rebuilding this year and next so his control coincides with years where I won't expect us to be competitive. I can't see us extending him either. So I wouldn't mind seeing him go but it needs to be for something decent I wouldn't give him away.

 

This is basically all I am saying - keep him until some team offers an actual asset for him. Something like Trent Thornton (or even a bit less) would be sufficient.

[Spanky99]

This is basically all I am saying - keep him until some team offers an actual asset for him. Something like Trent Thornton (or even a bit less) would be sufficient.

 

So you don't think Pillar could get that value now? I'm sure other teams have all their information on him, I think his value on this forum is incredibly low.

[Laika]

So you don't think Pillar could get that value now, I'm sure other teams have all their information on him?

 

I really don't know. Objectively, perhaps, but they need the right trade partner.

[Spanky99]

I really don't know. Objectively, perhaps, but they need the right trade partner.

 

I see, I think the Jays can get that value now.

[Laika]

I see, I think the Jays can get that value now.

 

I don't because they already would have pulled that trigger IMO

[Spanky99]

I don't because they already would have pulled that trigger IMO

 

Not if teams are waiting on a player in FA and have Toronto and Pillar as a back-up plan. IDK

[SaskJaysFan_2]

All of this information gets fed into the projection machine, which still expects him to be a 2 win player next year. The plate discipline stuff is really pretty minor - still within a bat toss of his career rates. The bat is annoying but a ~90 wRC+ player is hardly horrendous. Even if the defense has declined, the advanced numbers caught it last year, I guess, and I don't see why it would just fall off a cliff for him at 29/30. We could also choose to cherry pick some positives, like the fact that his ISO was up a bit last year (maybe explains the higher K rate - trying to hit the ball harder) and he was a smarter baserunner which the fancy stats noticed.

 

He has no appreciable upside beyond variance within what we know he is, but I think his downside is also limited because defense and speed and contact rarely slump for extended periods of time.

 

You need to post more.

[tercet]

I'm in the moving Pillar camp, we know what he is and he doesn't really help us beside "veteran presents", we are going to lose 95~ games this year.

 

Move him to spread his ABs and maybe we can strike gold with our OF logjam (Alford, Smith, Pompey, Davis)..

[glory]

Pillar is a useful player and has been great value for the team, but we don't need his 2 War in 2019. I'd rather any one of Alford, Pompey, or Smith get playing time over him next season. Pompey is out of options, so even if he's a 4th OF at best, stick him at CF and see if you get lucky. Use 2019 to its full advantage. Or start Alford and put Pompey off the bench and go from there. Whatever....anything is better than holding on to Pillar and getting the same bat with declining D.

 

Pillar has value if the Jays were contending. That's not happening, so trade him now for the best deal offered. With players like Pollock still unsigned that's probably the hold up, but once more FA's are signed, hopefully that will open the trade market up (Grandal holding up Martin too).

[tercet]

Noda is semi-intriguing though, only saw one AB of him during intra-team back in Dunedin at end of ST. He looked soooooooooo bad on back to back curveballs swinging over them.

 

He had major splits this past year and might just be like Kacy Clemens/LB Dantzler/Ryan McBroom/Kevin Patterson/Marcus Knecht/Brad Glenn every other college 1B/OF the Jays drafted int he last 10 years who tore up Lansing then did worse at Dunedin.

Edited January 4, 2019 by tercet

[The Cats Ass]

Noda is semi-intriguing though, only saw one AB of him during intra-team back in Dunedin at end of ST. He looked soooooooooo bad on back to back curveballs swinging over them.

 

He had major splits this past year and might just be like Kacy Clemens/LB Dantzler/Ryan McBroom/Kevin Patterson/Marcus Knecht/Brad Glenn every other college 1B/OF the Jays drafted int he last 10 years who tore up Lansing then did worse at Dunedin.

 

Swung on and missed back to back curveballs = Career over

[Brownie19]

Swung on and missed back to back curveballs = Career over

 

don't feed the troll please.

[Dr. Dinger]

Swung on and missed back to back curveballs = Career over

 

The fact that Boxy loves Noda so much is honestly a huge red flag for me.

[Boxcar]

The fact that Boxy loves Noda so much is honestly a huge red flag for me.

 

Is it because I'm good at stat scouting and it makes you feel insecure? Good thing I wasn't super high on Matt Olson for years or he might not have turned into a star 1b oh wait

[Dr. Dinger]

Is it because I'm good at stat scouting and it makes you feel insecure? Good thing I wasn't super high on Matt Olson for years or he might not have turned into a star 1b oh wait

 

Your 117 wRC+ 1B is a fantasy star? Please tell us about your great stat scouting successes with Greg Bird and AJ Reed.

[Boxcar]

Your 117 wRC+ 1B is a fantasy star? Please tell us about your great stat scouting successes with Greg Bird and AJ Reed.

 

You were obsessed with Reed too, retard. Greg Bird died from injury, not talent. He had Tulo Heel. Also of note is the fact that you didn't invoke the name of Jesse Winker, a guy I drafted when he was 18.

 

Also, wasn't aware we were talking about fantasy since Noda plays in the real world.

[Dr. Dinger]

You were obsessed with Reed too, retard. Greg Bird died from injury, not talent. He had Tulo Heel. Also of note is the fact that you didn't invoke the name of Jesse Winker, a guy I drafted when he was 18.

 

Also, wasn't aware we were talking about fantasy since Noda plays in the real world.

 

Jesse Winker is also not very good, especially IRL. He is what I'd envision as a best case scenario for Noda. s***** corner outfielder whose defence profiles better at 1B, unremarkable power, platoon lefty with a great walk rate.

[Dr. Dinger]

Alan, was this you?

 

12:43

Joe: Ryan Noda currently sits with a 35+ FV on his player page–is that still accurate or will he get a bump up when the Blue Jays review comes in?

 

12:43

Kiley McDaniel: Older 1B so probably that or 40 FV

 

12:44

Kiley McDaniel: Also BB rates from lower minors ofter crater in the upper minors as pitchers are better strike throwers and you aren’t getting as many “this guy literally can’t throw three strikes before four balls” walks

 

12:46

Kiley McDaniel: but he seems to be more selective than average so I think he’ll stay in the double digits in walk rate

[Boxcar]

Alan, was this you?

 

12:43

Joe: Ryan Noda currently sits with a 35+ FV on his player page–is that still accurate or will he get a bump up when the Blue Jays review comes in?

 

12:43

Kiley McDaniel: Older 1B so probably that or 40 FV

 

12:44

Kiley McDaniel: Also BB rates from lower minors ofter crater in the upper minors as pitchers are better strike throwers and you aren’t getting as many “this guy literally can’t throw three strikes before four balls” walks

 

12:46

Kiley McDaniel: but he seems to be more selective than average so I think he’ll stay in the double digits in walk rate

 

Nope, just another justified Ryan Noda fan

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

Is it because I'm good at stat scouting and it makes you feel insecure? Good thing I wasn't super high on Matt Olson for years or he might not have turned into a star 1b oh wait

 

you mean Stats and the Numbers that gave you the Facts as to Who from where in Canada Cheer more for the Teams you posted so proudly ... Epic Fail ... your input

And outtake from the Data you or as you take it is not correct ... The Map and Clicks do

Not lie ... As much as Boxy Does it seems!

 

True Story ... you Sir are not Right !!!

 

Cyber Tuff ... Lol

[tercet]

The walk rate is sick, but maybe he could be a Jack Cust?

 

Lets get back re Noda in June when he has 250AB in Dunedin so we have an idea of what he might be...

[Abomination]

The walk rate is sick, but maybe he could be a Jack Cust?

 

Now there's a name I haven't heard for a LONG time.

[P2F]

Stream:

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M.FACEBOOK.COM

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See posts, photos and more on Facebook.

 

There are lots of exciting prospects participating in this event, including Bo.

[Jimcanuck]

Baseball America is very high on Keibert. Ranks him #1 in Dodgers system, ahead of Verdugo.

 

Track Record: Ruiz mainly attracted teams with his defense as an amateur in Venezuela, training at the academy run by former major league shortstop Carlos Guillen. Almost immediately after signing with the Dodgers for $140,000, Ruiz began holding his own against older players. At age 17 he moved to the Rookie-level Pioneer League and hit .354 as the league’s youngest player. At 18 he jumped to full-season ball and hit .316 with an .813 OPS between low Class A and high Class A. And in his age-19 season, as the rare teenaged catcher in the upper levels, Ruiz had the lowest strikeout rate of any hitter in Double-A, hit a career-high 12 home runs and ably handled Tulsa’s high-octane pitching staff.

 

Scouting Report: Ruiz originally intrigued with his glove, but as he has progressed his offense now stands out first and foremost. He is a gifted switch-hitter with excellent timing, bat speed and loose wrists that enable him to manipulate the barrel to all parts of the zone, giving him excellent plate coverage against all types of pitches. He has an aggressive approach and doesn’t walk much, but he stays within the strike zone and rarely swings and misses. Ruiz puts together quality at-bats from both sides of the plate, but he has faster hand speed and more natural lift in his lefthanded swing, resulting in significantly more impact contact from that side of the plate. Ruiz has progressively added strength and increased his home run total every season, now projecting for double-digit homers to go with a plus bat. Ruiz’s defense lags behind his offense but is still advanced for his age and constantly improving. He shows good timing blocking balls, is an above-average—if sometimes inconsistent—receiver and has developed a knack for back-picking baserunners. He has an average, accurate arm that occasionally gets slowed by footwork and transfer issues, but he made strides to clean those up and threw out a career-best 26 percent of basestealers 2018. Ruiz also became more confident handling a staff, from presenting game plans to pitchers to knowing when to take mound visits.

 

The Future: Ruiz’s success on both sides of the ball as a teenager in Double-A makes him the top catching prospect in baseball. His potential as a switch-hitting, middle-of-the-order catcher has him in line to be the next great Dodgers homegrown catcher.

[jays4life19]

Baseball America is very high on Keibert. Ranks him #1 in Dodgers system, ahead of Verdugo.

 

Track Record: Ruiz mainly attracted teams with his defense as an amateur in Venezuela, training at the academy run by former major league shortstop Carlos Guillen. Almost immediately after signing with the Dodgers for $140,000, Ruiz began holding his own against older players. At age 17 he moved to the Rookie-level Pioneer League and hit .354 as the league’s youngest player. At 18 he jumped to full-season ball and hit .316 with an .813 OPS between low Class A and high Class A. And in his age-19 season, as the rare teenaged catcher in the upper levels, Ruiz had the lowest strikeout rate of any hitter in Double-A, hit a career-high 12 home runs and ably handled Tulsa’s high-octane pitching staff.

 

Scouting Report: Ruiz originally intrigued with his glove, but as he has progressed his offense now stands out first and foremost. He is a gifted switch-hitter with excellent timing, bat speed and loose wrists that enable him to manipulate the barrel to all parts of the zone, giving him excellent plate coverage against all types of pitches. He has an aggressive approach and doesn’t walk much, but he stays within the strike zone and rarely swings and misses. Ruiz puts together quality at-bats from both sides of the plate, but he has faster hand speed and more natural lift in his lefthanded swing, resulting in significantly more impact contact from that side of the plate. Ruiz has progressively added strength and increased his home run total every season, now projecting for double-digit homers to go with a plus bat. Ruiz’s defense lags behind his offense but is still advanced for his age and constantly improving. He shows good timing blocking balls, is an above-average—if sometimes inconsistent—receiver and has developed a knack for back-picking baserunners. He has an average, accurate arm that occasionally gets slowed by footwork and transfer issues, but he made strides to clean those up and threw out a career-best 26 percent of basestealers 2018. Ruiz also became more confident handling a staff, from presenting game plans to pitchers to knowing when to take mound visits.

 

The Future: Ruiz’s success on both sides of the ball as a teenager in Double-A makes him the top catching prospect in baseball. His potential as a switch-hitting, middle-of-the-order catcher has him in line to be the next great Dodgers homegrown catcher.

 

It's better to do these kinda posts in the fantasy threads because everyone who's not in the fantasy circle is not going to get why the eff you're posting/care about Keibert BA ranking.

[Jimcanuck]

It's better to do these kinda posts in the fantasy threads because everyone who's not in the fantasy circle is not going to get why the eff you're posting/care about Keibert BA ranking.

 

This is the MiLB/Prospects thread, dude?