Official MiLB/Prospects Thread

[KevinGregg]

The only possible saving grace for Pentecost is that he was so highly regarded when drafted, so the talent was always in there and it's not like he's some nobody that just got hot for a month. How much of his disappointing performance (career wise) has been injury related? Probably lots. Could he be turning the corner finally? Probably not, but there's a possibility (slim as it is) that maybe things are finally turning around for him. If nothing else, at least he gets to end the season on a positive note and maybe he's able to leverage that into a strong offseason and a positive outlook going into 2019.

 

Small victories.

 

Pentecost will have to be added to the 40 man this off season if they want to avoid trying to sneak him through the rule 5 draft again like they did last off season. I wonder if they bother? 5 Catchers on the 40 man would be kinda ridiculous.

[Brownie19]

Pentecost will have to be added to the 40 man this off season if they want to avoid trying to sneak him through the rule 5 draft again like they did last off season. I wonder if they bother? 5 Catchers on the 40 man would be kinda ridiculous.

 

Referring to Pentecost as a catcher is like referring to Miggy as a 3rd baseman or Victor Martinez as a catcher.

 

 

We're not adding Pentecost to the 40 man.

[Krylian]

Vladdy named Baseball America's Minor League Player of the Year.

[Bobthe4th]

Referring to Pentecost as a catcher is like referring to Miggy as a 3rd baseman or Victor Martinez as a catcher.

 

That's not true anymore. Now he's over his injuries he's been playing catcher most games this season - he even won player of the month in August at catcher.

[KevinGregg]

Here's a thought:

 

Everyone seems pretty much convinced that the Jays will call up Vladdy in April, right at the time where if he plays all the rest of the season he will be one day short of one full year of service. this would get us a 7th year of Vladdy that we wouldn't have gotten if the front office called him up to start the year and never optioned him to the minors at any point before FA. We lose him after 2025 instead of 2024, and all we have to do is pay for one extra year at league minimum. Pretty solid deal!

 

But how come there's not really much discussion about calling him up in June next year, to avoid the super 2 date? This doesn't get us any more years of Vladdy, but it would result in pretty substantial savings. You would pay just 3 years of arbitration instead of 4. Basically you are trading the final arb 4 year which would probably be like 30 million dollars for a year at league minimum and all you have to do is give up like 6 more weeks of vlad in 2019. That's a pretty damn good trade, considering we really don't need his bat in the lineup next April and May if we aren't planning on competing anyways.

 

2019 500k

2020 500k

2021 500k

2022 500k

2023 arb1 - 8M

2024 arb2 - 15M

2025 arb3 - 25M

 

50M total

 

or

 

2019 500k

2020 500k

2021 500k

2022 arb1 - 5M (4.5M extra)

2023 arb2 - 12M (4M extra)

2024 arb3 - 22M (7M extra)

2025 arb4 - 28M (3M extra)

 

68.5M total

 

Obviously the numbers could be tweaked - I totally pulled them out of my ass, but I seem to recall salaries going something like that in Arbitration. The general pattern should hold regardless of how you tweak the numbers. That's a lot of payroll space each year to throw away in 2022-2025 just for 6 weeks of Vlad next year when Atkins said there is no plan to compete anyways

[baseballsss]

Here's a thought:

 

Everyone seems pretty much convinced that the Jays will call up Vladdy in April, right at the time where if he plays all the rest of the season he will be one day short of one full year of service. this would get us a 7th year of Vladdy that we wouldn't have gotten if the front office called him up to start the year and never optioned him to the minors at any point before FA. We lose him after 2025 instead of 2024, and all we have to do is pay for one extra year at league minimum. Pretty solid deal!

 

But how come there's not really much discussion about calling him up in June next year, to avoid the super 2 date? This doesn't get us any more years of Vladdy, but it would result in pretty substantial savings. You would pay just 3 years of arbitration instead of 4. Basically you are trading the final arb 4 year which would probably be like 30 million dollars for a year at league minimum and all you have to do is give up like 6 more weeks of vlad in 2019. That's a pretty damn good trade, considering we really don't need his bat in the lineup next April and May if we aren't planning on competing anyways.

 

2019 500k

2020 500k

2021 500k

2022 500k

2023 arb1 - 8M

2024 arb2 - 15M

2025 arb3 - 25M

 

50M total

 

or

 

2019 500k

2020 500k

2021 500k

2022 arb1 - 5M (4.5M extra)

2023 arb2 - 12M (4M extra)

2024 arb3 - 22M (7M extra)

2025 arb4 - 28M (3M extra)

 

68.5M total

 

Obviously the numbers could be tweaked - I totally pulled them out of my ass, but I seem to recall salaries going something like that in Arbitration. The general pattern should hold regardless of how you tweak the numbers. That's a lot of payroll space each year to throw away in 2022-2025 just for 6 weeks of Vlad next year when Atkins said there is no plan to compete anyways

 

They probably let him play for a few years if he is everything that we hope he is they probably sign him to an extension through his arb years and maybe one free agent year. Usually how big name players go with the exception of a few.

[LGBJ29]

 

Suck a bag of dicks Keith

[BTS]

Here's a thought:

 

Everyone seems pretty much convinced that the Jays will call up Vladdy in April, right at the time where if he plays all the rest of the season he will be one day short of one full year of service. this would get us a 7th year of Vladdy that we wouldn't have gotten if the front office called him up to start the year and never optioned him to the minors at any point before FA. We lose him after 2025 instead of 2024, and all we have to do is pay for one extra year at league minimum. Pretty solid deal!

 

But how come there's not really much discussion about calling him up in June next year, to avoid the super 2 date? This doesn't get us any more years of Vladdy, but it would result in pretty substantial savings. You would pay just 3 years of arbitration instead of 4. Basically you are trading the final arb 4 year which would probably be like 30 million dollars for a year at league minimum and all you have to do is give up like 6 more weeks of vlad in 2019. That's a pretty damn good trade, considering we really don't need his bat in the lineup next April and May if we aren't planning on competing anyways.

 

2019 500k

2020 500k

2021 500k

2022 500k

2023 arb1 - 8M

2024 arb2 - 15M

2025 arb3 - 25M

 

50M total

 

or

 

2019 500k

2020 500k

2021 500k

2022 arb1 - 5M (4.5M extra)

2023 arb2 - 12M (4M extra)

2024 arb3 - 22M (7M extra)

2025 arb4 - 28M (3M extra)

 

68.5M total

 

Obviously the numbers could be tweaked - I totally pulled them out of my ass, but I seem to recall salaries going something like that in Arbitration. The general pattern should hold regardless of how you tweak the numbers. That's a lot of payroll space each year to throw away in 2022-2025 just for 6 weeks of Vlad next year when Atkins said there is no plan to compete anyways

 

I think there's a big difference in public support for delaying service time to save a year of control vs. to avoid super 2. I'm cool with them waiting to mid-April to get the extra year, but waiting until June to save a few million a year would be indefensibly cheap in my eyes.

[BTS]

 

Suck a bag of dicks Keith

 

My god I love Mark Shapiro

[P2F]

I just stopped by to post those Mark Shapiro quotes. Fan-f***ing-tastic stuff.

[Terminator]

I think I saw one where Shapiro said everyone at the office was laughing at Law's rankings. Did anyone else see that?

[Krylian]

I like that Shapiro stands behind his guys and the farm system, but I'm not sure why he gives a s*** about Law or his rankings.

[Jimcanuck]

I like that Shapiro stands behind his guys and the farm system, but I'm not sure why he gives a s*** about Law or his rankings.

 

Ya, Law is an outlier. No idea why his rankings are imported into the BJMB rankings sheet.

[L54]

I like that Shapiro stands behind his guys and the farm system, but I'm not sure why he gives a s*** about Law or his rankings.

 

All he did was answer the question. It involved calling out Keith Law. I’m sure he actually doesn’t care about Keith at all.

[L54]

I think there's a big difference in public support for delaying service time to save a year of control vs. to avoid super 2. I'm cool with them waiting to mid-April to get the extra year, but waiting until June to save a few million a year would be indefensibly cheap in my eyes.

 

This is the correct answer. I am on board with gaining that extra year of control, but not at all interested in nickel and diming Vladdy like we’re the Rays or Pirates. Vlad will be making what he’s worth during that final year of control and that’s fine by me.

[Jimcanuck]

This is the correct answer. I am on board with gaining that extra year of control, but not at all interested in nickel and diming Vladdy like we’re the Rays or Pirates. Vlad will be making 1/2 what he’s worth during that final year of control and that’s fine by me.

 

ftfy

[L54]

I knew somebody was going to try and correct me and say “actually Vlad will be with X amount during his last year”

[KevinGregg]

They probably let him play for a few years if he is everything that we hope he is they probably sign him to an extension through his arb years and maybe one free agent year. Usually how big name players go with the exception of a few.

 

Would it make sense to try to offer Vlad an extension through 2026 right now? Would either party entertain that idea?

 

That way we wouldnt have to worry about service time manipulation, and since the team is taking on extra risk presumably we would have to commit less than if we went year to year.

[Grant77]

Would it make sense to try to offer Vlad an extension through 2026 right now? Would either party entertain that idea?

 

That way we wouldnt have to worry about service time manipulation, and since the team is taking on extra risk presumably we would have to commit less than if we went year to year.

 

I don't think the son of an extremely wealthy father would be as interested in financial security as your average player.

[P2F]

 

Shapiro is god.

[P2F]

Here's an article all about Nate Pearson. I love Nate Pearson and so should you.

 

Pearson, in particular, was drawn to watching newly acquired Rays right-hander Tyler Glasnow. At 6-foot-8, Glasnow is a similar size to the Jays prospect, and with his mid-to-high-90s fastball, he also had a similar affinity to throwing hard. After Glasnow had struggled with control during his Major League time with the Pirates, Pearson was getting a first-hand look at what the Tampa Bay hurler was doing to find the strike zone more consistently. It helped Pearson envision himself in the Majors, because here was a blueprint right in front of him. He just needed his broken bone to heal to get back on track.

 

On his 22nd birthday on Aug. 20, he took a big step toward that goal. Pearson pitched in his first bullpen session ("a pretty good birthday present," he called it), and although the Jays didn't have a radar gun on him that day, he felt like his velocity had already returned. It didn't take long to get that confirmed.

"My second bullpen, I hit 97," he said. "I don't think I'd ever thrown that hard just in a 'pen before. At that point, I knew my velocity was back, so I could focus on everything else. In both of my live [batting practices], I hit 99-100. Now, it's all about making sure I'm spinning my stuff OK. I can get back to really pitching."

 

https://www.milb.com/milb/news/toolshed-toronto-blue-jays-nate-pearson-just-getting-going/c-293581212?tcid=tw_article_293581212

[Krylian]

 

Shapiro is god.

 

That's a great quote from Shapiro. I fully support that approach 150%.

[glory]

 

Shapiro is god.

 

Seriously. Sign that man to a lifetime contract.

[43211234]

Clay Davenport publishes all kinds of advanced stats for the majors and minor leagues so, for whatever it might be worth, I took a look at some of defensive runs above average he calculates. I have no idea what method he uses to get these numbers.

 

Here's the link: http://claydavenport.com/stats/webpages/2018/2018pageTORrealALL.shtml

 

The site is a nightmare to navigate. The defense numbers are on the far right of the table. I believe the format "13-3B -1 12-2B 2" translates into "13 games started at 3B, 1 run below average. 12 games started at 2B, 2 runs above average. There are tables for the different teams (MLB down to Bluefield).

 

Notable numbers:

 

Vlad Jr was +4 at both AA and AAA. For some reason I'm just a bit skeptical of him being a +8 defender at 3B but it's certainly encouraging to see positive numbers.

 

Alford +1

 

Jansen -5 (Buffalo)

 

Pompey -2 RF, -2 LF

 

Tellez -1

 

Roemon Fields +7 CF, +5 RF (I included him only because of the high numbers and proximity to MLB)

 

Biggio +6 2B, 0 3B

 

Pentecost +5 C

 

Harold Ramirez -5 RF, -1 LF

 

Bo Bichette -1 SS, -1 2B

 

Kevin Smith (Dunedin) +8 SS, +2 2B

 

Kevin Smith (Lansing) +3 SS, 0 3B

 

Warmoth +3 SS, +2 2B

 

Ryan Noda +1 1B, +2 LF

 

Chavez Young, +2 RF, +14 CF

 

Samad Taylor +7 2B

 

Otto Lopez -1 3B, +2 2B

 

Griffin Conine +12 RF

 

Cal Stevenson +10 LF, +3 CF

 

Jordan Groshans 0 SS, 0 3B (only 11 starts at Bluefield, though)

 

 

Note that I only included Kevin Smith and Vlad's numbers from different leagues. There were other guys who split time between leagues but I didn't bother adding them. There really wasn't much in the way of significant mid-season promotions outside of Smith and Vladdy

 

 

Cal Stevenson and Chavez Young might be more intriguing than we think. Kevin Smith top 60 prospect?

 

 

Again, I don't know what value these numbers have but they're fun to look at.

Edited September 8, 2018 by 43211234

[BTS]

 

Shapiro is god.

 

Most Jays fans think this guy is bad at his job and want him fired.

[Deadpool]

Clay Davenport publishes all kinds of advanced stats for the majors and minor leagues so, for whatever it might be worth, I took a look at some of defensive runs above average he calculates. I have no idea what method he uses to get these numbers.

 

Here's the link: http://claydavenport.com/stats/webpages/2018/2018pageTORrealALL.shtml

 

The site is a nightmare to navigate. The defense numbers are on the far right of the table. I believe the format "13-3B -1 12-2B 2" translates into "13 games started at 3B, 1 run below average. 12 games started at 2B, 2 runs above average. There are tables for the different teams (MLB down to Bluefield).

 

Notable numbers:

 

Vlad Jr was +4 at both AA and AAA. For some reason I'm just a bit skeptical of him being a +8 defender at 3B but it's certainly encouraging to see positive numbers.

 

Alford +1

 

Jansen -5 (Buffalo)

 

Pompey -2 RF, -2 LF

 

Tellez -1

 

Roemon Fields +7 CF, +5 RF (I included him only because of the high numbers and proximity to MLB)

 

Biggio +6 2B, 0 3B

 

Pentecost +5 CF

 

Harold Ramirez -5 RF, -1 LF

 

Bo Bichette -1 SS, -1 2B

 

Kevin Smith (Dunedin) +8 SS, +2 2B

 

Kevin Smith (Lansing) +3 SS, 0 3B

 

Warmoth +3 SS, +2 2B

 

Ryan Noda +1 1B, +2 LF

 

Chavez Young, +2 RF, +14 CF

 

Samad Taylor +7 2B

 

Otto Lopez -1 3B, +2 2B

 

Griffin Conine +12 RF

 

Cal Stevenson +10 LF, +3 CF

 

Jordan Groshans 0 SS, 0 3B (only 11 starts at Bluefield, though)

 

 

Note that I only included Kevin Smith and Vlad's numbers from different leagues. There were other guys who split time between leagues but I didn't bother adding them. There really wasn't much in the way of significant mid-season promotions outside of Smith and Vladdy

 

 

Cal Stevenson and Chavez Young might be more intriguing than we think. Kevin Smith top 60 prospect?

 

 

Again, I don't know what value these numbers have but they're fun to look at.

 

I had no idea Pentecost was that good a CF!

[Olerud363]

 

Shapiro is god.

 

That is really an amazing quote... In my experience casuals in any field just don't like uncertainty.

 

Genius investment guy "We don't know for sure but some percentage of the current environment is being artificially manipulated by the central banks. No one knows how that will end or when, but we triple hedge for uncertainty, and structure investments to limit downside risk. We can't guarantee any near term returns. But there are scenarios where unexpected things will happen, which we can't even predict, but because of the stochastic nature of our strategy, we still benefit from"

 

Casual "mother f***ing egghead ain't touching my money".

 

Phony Bob - "We're not political here, but we love what Trump is doing, just the common sense things, not the nonsense, it's got us in a positive cycle, and if you look at what happened in the 80s and 90s, well remember that was a 20 year cycle. Right now we're at year 8, and this is definitely going to be a longer cycle then the Reagan cycle. This is just the start. This bull market has 15 years left. At least 15 years. You need to get in now, your money in the bank is losing value every day."

 

Casual - "Thanks Phoney Bob - here is my life savings!!!!"

[Spanky__99]

I had no idea Pentecost was that good a CF!

 

Hah... that stuck out like a throbbing sore thumb.

[TheHurl]

Would it make sense to try to offer Vlad an extension through 2026 right now? Would either party entertain that idea?

 

That way we wouldnt have to worry about service time manipulation, and since the team is taking on extra risk presumably we would have to commit less than if we went year to year.

 

If there were any chance of that happening he'd already be here. He wanted to be in the majors this year, I'm sure they told him this would be the way to do it.

[glory]

I don't see Vlad signing an extension. He comes from money and if he bets on himself for six years he will hit the open market at age 26/27 and easily get more than any extension he signs today will give him. Only risk is injury but he's only 19. At 19 we all think we are invincible.