The Rays 77 wins or less thread

[GeorgiaPeach]

Does this happen? From my experience even the casuals you hate can appreciate a good defensive play.

 

Wouldn't they have to be paying attention to the game to appreciate the play?

[reedjohnsonfan]

Wouldn't they have to be paying attention to the game to appreciate the play?

 

Ok so the actual fans applaud, and the casuals clap because they just go with the flow. Makes sense to me.

[GeorgiaPeach]

It could be either way. I went to a couple of games in the last month and they seemed to cheer. I hate casuals half as much as gibbers, but they're not always extremely stupid despite what you guys think.

 

I know exactly where the problem lies.

 

When the Jays are batting and they hit a flyball to normal OF depth, the stadium goes bananas because every flyball = homerun

 

So you misconstrued the cheering for a opponent's good defensive play because the fans cheer for everything now.

[reedjohnsonfan]

I know exactly where the problem lies.

 

When the Jays are batting and they hit a flyball to normal OF depth, the stadium goes bananas because every flyball = homerun

 

So you misconstrued the cheering for a opponent's good defensive play because the fans cheer for everything now.

 

Haha. Ok you win.

[GeorgiaPeach]

I doubt it. Most people here are Jays fans, they don't give a f*** about the rest of baseball.

 

True. But then they can't whine or complain when a trade is made or free agent signed, because they would be completely oblivious to what we're receiving in the trade. Thus mouth should be closed and opinions kept to themselves.

 

But we know this not to be the case, like ever.

 

WTF do you expect from the hometown crown? Did you honestly expect them to cheer on Kiermaier? Seriously?

 

I don't expect much from the Jays crowds.

 

Hence why good baseball fans appreciate good plays by both teams.

[Effit]

True. But then they can't whine or complain when a trade is made or free agent signed, because they would be completely oblivious to what we're receiving in the trade. Thus mouth should be closed and opinions kept to themselves.

 

But we know this not to be the case, like ever.

 

 

 

I don't expect much from the Jays crowds.

 

Hence why good baseball fans appreciate good plays by both teams.

 

So one can't think to themselves, "wow, what a great play", while not openly cheering on the opposing team?

[TheHurl]

They are 70-75 now. They need to go 7-10 or worse for the rest of the year for this to happen. I'd love to see it because:

 

1. They are done with the Yankees and play the Jays 6 more times so there is absolutely no reason for them to win another game this year.

 

2. The Rays suck, and the people on here who supposedly support that condemned team mostly to rustle the jimmies of other posters on here need to be made aware of this.

 

3. I remember in a thread earlier this year about win totals, TwistedLogic absolutely took it up the ass from several posters on here because he had some sort of a "gut feel" that a Rays under bet was a good one, when the stat heads clearly argued otherwise (and the poor return on the over bet relative to under was an indication the public felt that way too). I would find TL's long-winded, drawn-out rubbing of egg on the face of those individuals if he turned out to be right to be a source of entertainment on this board. Hope he put some money where his mouth is because I recall the under 77 wins bet was +110 or something which is about the best odds you'll ever get betting on O/U season wins.

 

As the only real Rays fan on this board, I'll respond. Do you think I don't realize that the team is 70-76? Can you post the other 28 records as well, I'm working a lot and might have missed a west coast game last night. This was an obvious troll attempt at me in the same way the initial post by TL was a troll attempt against projections. Nox took him up on his troll attempt and these were some of his responses when asked why he thought the Rays would be an under:

 

I don't like an infield of Franklin/Cabrera, and I don't believe Franklin is going to be a 1.5 win player next year.

Well he nailed that one. Nick Franklin suxxxx.

 

I believe that projecting Souza and Kiermaier, both players that I actually like, for 4.3 WAR is a bit too optimistic.

 

They are 1.7 WAR above that.

 

I also like Rivera, but assuming that this past year wasn't an outlier, and that he's suddenly become a valuable major leaguer at the age of 31, and will post 2.0 non-framing wins next year is optimistic.

 

He got that one right too and is a big reason that the Rays are behind their projections. Casalli looks pretty good though.

 

The Rays have a good pen, but I think that even the projections agree with me that their rotation is overrated.

 

The pen was their worst in 7 years and their starters despite some major injury woes was as good as it's been as any other they have had other than 2012.

 

Outside of Longoria and maybe Jennings, they have no sure things on the field. Franklin, Souza and Kiermaier may be good. Rivera may suddenly be an above average bat. Loney may not be s***. These guys may look great a year from now, but I don't like the uncertainty going into this season.

 

So this ended up being an argument between him and Nox about whether he had facts behind his statement or is it just gut feel. Prompting Nox to have this response

You make mention of uncertainty when in reality a statistical model has a much better grasp on the concept than your intuition does. Uncertainty is the thing we humans are about the worst at estimating. Our system 2 doesn't have the machinery to do it and system 1 requires specific training to do it right. Given that you used this: "The Rays were projected for 86 wins going into 2014, and they finished with 77 wins." as some piece of evidence, I don't think you have that specific training.

 

Which brings us back to why your thread was a troll attempt at me. You are a fan of a first place team, rather than celebrate that you brought up a fight between two people that don't post here (TL because he realized that no one gave a s*** about him here, and Nox because he's a corporate sellout drinking lattes out of a clam shell), all to try and get to the fan of the last place team. If I were thin skinned I wouldn't still be posting here. I wouldn't be wearing my Rays shirts in that last series, but I will. And I'll take my lumps I'm okay with it. I like the long term model of the Rays team, I like that they had a couple of nice breakouts. I also take some solace that Longoria's downturn still has him as a 4 win player. There is work to do for the front office...and even more work to do for the marketing department. I appreciate you doing another Rays thread, it really makes me feel better about the season when I talk it out.

[Captain Adama]

I doubt it. Most people here are Jays fans, they don't give a f*** about the rest of baseball.

 

Edit: Rays will not win 85 games this season. They also lost 85 games last season, what you talking about?

 

 

 

Serious question. Would you vote for Trump if you were American?

 

 

 

WTF do you expect from the hometown crown? Did you honestly expect them to cheer on Kiermaier? Seriously?

 

If they see a great play like that? Yes.

 

Would I expect it from them?...not really.

[BTS]

As the only real Rays fan on this board, I'll respond. Do you think I don't realize that the team is 70-76? Can you post the other 28 records as well, I'm working a lot and might have missed a west coast game last night. This was an obvious troll attempt at me in the same way the initial post by TL was a troll attempt against projections. Nox took him up on his troll attempt and these were some of his responses when asked why he thought the Rays would be an under:

 

Well he nailed that one. Nick Franklin suxxxx.

 

 

 

They are 1.7 WAR above that.

 

 

 

He got that one right too and is a big reason that the Rays are behind their projections. Casalli looks pretty good though.

 

 

 

The pen was their worst in 7 years and their starters despite some major injury woes was as good as it's been as any other they have had other than 2012.

 

 

 

So this ended up being an argument between him and Nox about whether he had facts behind his statement or is it just gut feel. Prompting Nox to have this response

 

Which brings us back to why your thread was a troll attempt at me. You are a fan of a first place team, rather than celebrate that you brought up a fight between two people that don't post here (TL because he realized that no one gave a s*** about him here, and Nox because he's a corporate sellout drinking lattes out of a clam shell), all to try and get to the fan of the last place team. If I were thin skinned I wouldn't still be posting here. I wouldn't be wearing my Rays shirts in that last series, but I will. And I'll take my lumps I'm okay with it. I like the long term model of the Rays team, I like that they had a couple of nice breakouts. I also take some solace that Longoria's downturn still has him as a 4 win player. There is work to do for the front office...and even more work to do for the marketing department. I appreciate you doing another Rays thread, it really makes me feel better about the season when I talk it out.

 

The Rays could be dangerous again as soon as next year. Archer, Cobb, Odorizzi, Smyly are an elite top-4, and that leaves Karns, Ramirez, Andriese Colome, Moore and Guerrieri as depth.

 

The foundation of the position players is Forsythe, Kiermaier, Longoria, and Souza, who should all be above average. Guyer, Casali, and Jaso should all be nice pieces too.

 

Something like:

 

C - Casali

1B - Jaso

2B - Forsythe

3B - Longoria

SS - ??

CF - Kiermaier

RF - Souza

LF - Guyer

 

Archer

Cobb

Smyly

Odorizzi

5th guy

 

If they can spin a few extra arms into a shortstop, second catcher, and platoon partners for Guyer and Jaso, there's 85+ win potential there. Unfortunately the terrible payroll means everything will have to go right for them to add the ~4 pieces they need, and any serious long term injuries will sink them.

[GeorgiaPeach]

So one can't think to themselves, "wow, what a great play", while not openly cheering on the opposing team?

 

The best is when they openly cheer for routine Jays flyballs that fall into OF'ers gloves.

 

"Diehards" should have some sort of depth perception.

[Spanky99]

1. No American should vote Trump.

2. No Canadian should encourage Americans to vote Trump.

3. You rarely agree with the majority.

 

1. He isn't American

2. He hasn't, ever

3.He approaches everything with an open mind.

 

4. I'm not nut hugging.

[Spanky99]

Wouldn't they have to be paying attention to the game to appreciate the play?

 

lol

[Spanky99]

I want to believe Franklin is good, just never gets a chance?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Seriously...f***...play the kid Rays?

[TheHurl]

3. I remember in a thread earlier this year about win totals, TwistedLogic absolutely took it up the ass from several posters on here because he had some sort of a "gut feel" that a Rays under bet was a good one, when the stat heads clearly argued otherwise (and the poor return on the over bet relative to under was an indication the public felt that way too). I would find TL's long-winded, drawn-out rubbing of egg on the face of those individuals if he turned out to be right to be a source of entertainment on this board. Hope he put some money where his mouth is because I recall the under 77 wins bet was +110 or something which is about the best odds you'll ever get betting on O/U season wins.

 

Statheads were right again

[reedjohnsonfan]

Statheads were right again

 

It's funny because it's 1 season. Statheads understand that one season is random. I predicted their offense to be terrible and it was. Their defence is pretty good, and they showed nice pitching depth. They weren't a threat the day Cobb got injured though.

[TheHurl]

It's funny because it's 1 season. Statheads understand that one season is random. I predicted their offense to be terrible and it was. Their defence is pretty good, and they showed nice pitching depth. They weren't a threat the day Cobb got injured though.

 

I don't disagree. I hoped the Rays would contend all season and just before the deadline it looked like they might make a run (their second half run differential was actually much better in their 32-36 second half) but they just didn't have the talent on the field to do it this year. The real argument here was projections vs. impressions. TL tried to base on argument on his eye test and failed (even though the projection argument was hurt by Cobb, Smyly and Jennings going down, it still did better than the eye test in this case). I honestly don't mind honest opinions and gut feels, but in TL's case he decided to take on a really smart guy in a field that he understands really really well. Then the Pole decided to take up the cause and also use the Rays as an example of why projections don't always work, and also in turn looked like an ass. It's kind of my job to rub his face in the s*** of a thread he started.

[Dick_Pole]

I don't disagree. I hoped the Rays would contend all season and just before the deadline it looked like they might make a run (their second half run differential was actually much better in their 32-36 second half) but they just didn't have the talent on the field to do it this year. The real argument here was projections vs. impressions. TL tried to base on argument on his eye test and failed (even though the projection argument was hurt by Cobb, Smyly and Jennings going down, it still did better than the eye test in this case). I honestly don't mind honest opinions and gut feels, but in TL's case he decided to take on a really smart guy in a field that he understands really really well. Then the Pole decided to take up the cause and also use the Rays as an example of why projections don't always work, and also in turn looked like an ass. It's kind of my job to rub his face in the s*** of a thread he started.

 

There's a difference between wanting a thing to happen and believing a thing would happen. It would have been nice to see 77 wins or less for the three reasons I outlined in the first post. But it's not like I made a bet on it, monetary or otherwise.

 

You, on the other hand, were jealously trolling a couple of months ago saying something along the lines of "The Jays play the Rays in 6 of the last 10 games, hope they play spoiler and ruin their playoff chances". I responded with something like "Well I guess the Jays will just have to clinch well before then". Who got what they wanted in that instance?

 

So if you believe I made myself look like an ass here, well you did the same earlier. At best it's 1-1. But getting into the playoffs is a little bit more important than just barely passing a win total that was generally regarded as low by the betting public.

[reedjohnsonfan]

I don't disagree. I hoped the Rays would contend all season and just before the deadline it looked like they might make a run (their second half run differential was actually much better in their 32-36 second half) but they just didn't have the talent on the field to do it this year. The real argument here was projections vs. impressions. TL tried to base on argument on his eye test and failed (even though the projection argument was hurt by Cobb, Smyly and Jennings going down, it still did better than the eye test in this case). I honestly don't mind honest opinions and gut feels, but in TL's case he decided to take on a really smart guy in a field that he understands really really well. Then the Pole decided to take up the cause and also use the Rays as an example of why projections don't always work, and also in turn looked like an ass. It's kind of my job to rub his face in the s*** of a thread he started.

 

That's fair, rub it in to whoever you like.

 

I still think the Rays are a very boring team. Ugly stadium, no payroll, and their players have very limited upside IMO. I mean, Kiermaier has like 1 less WAR than Jason Heyward (going off memory) in the last two seasons, but Heyward is a much more valuable player going forward. Obviously extreme example but you get the idea... James Loney, Logan Forsythe, John Jaso etc... these players are not exciting to watch. Outside of a few good pitchers, Kiermaier and maybe Longoria, watching them play is like watching paint dry.

[Captain Adama]

That's fair, rub it in to whoever you like.

 

I still think the Rays are a very boring team. Ugly stadium, no payroll, and their players have very limited upside IMO. I mean, Kiermaier has like 1 less WAR than Jason Heyward (going off memory) in the last two seasons, but Heyward is a much more valuable player going forward. Obviously extreme example but you get the idea... James Loney, Logan Forsythe, John Jaso etc... these players are not exciting to watch. Outside of a few good pitchers, Kiermaier and maybe Longoria, watching them play is like watching paint dry.

 

That's somewhat fair, but I think Guyer and Mahtook are both pretty fun to watch. They just don't have the name value that Longoria does.

 

I still think they got solid value this year and going forward. If they get a full year of Smyly and Cobb I don't think they'll contend but I'm sure they'll be a very good team.

[Terminator]

That's somewhat fair, but I think Guyer and Mahtook are both pretty fun to watch. They just don't have the name value that Longoria does.

 

I still think they got solid value this year and going forward. If they get a full year of Smyly and Cobb I don't think they'll contend but I'm sure they'll be a very good team.

 

Yeah the Rays certainly have their obstacles but over the next couple of years I think they'll be fine.

[Maahfaace]

That's fair, rub it in to whoever you like.

 

I still think the Rays are a very boring team. Ugly stadium, no payroll, and their players have very limited upside IMO. I mean, Kiermaier has like 1 less WAR than Jason Heyward (going off memory) in the last two seasons, but Heyward is a much more valuable player going forward. Obviously extreme example but you get the idea... James Loney, Logan Forsythe, John Jaso etc... these players are not exciting to watch. Outside of a few good pitchers, Kiermaier and maybe Longoria, watching them play is like watching paint dry.

 

I honestly don't understand why anyone would cheer for the Devil Rays (don't forget they got pressured by the fossils that are fans to change the name because the devil is possesing the team or some s***.) The average age of a fan is pushing 65, it's probably why Hurl is a fan because he has graduated from wanting to f*** cougars to Silverback hunting that old catcher mitt feeling pussy.

 

I hope they move to Montréal.

[Stangstag]

I honestly don't understand why anyone would cheer for the Devil Rays (don't forget they got pressured by the fossils that are fans to change the name because the devil is possesing the team or some s***.) The average age of a fan is pushing 65, it's probably why Hurl is a fan because he has graduated from wanting to f*** cougars to Silverback hunting that old catcher mitt feeling pussy.

 

I hope they move to Montréal.

 

Lol

[Stangstag]

That's fair, rub it in to whoever you like.

 

I still think the Rays are a very boring team. Ugly stadium, no payroll, and their players have very limited upside IMO. I mean, Kiermaier has like 1 less WAR than Jason Heyward (going off memory) in the last two seasons, but Heyward is a much more valuable player going forward. Obviously extreme example but you get the idea... James Loney, Logan Forsythe, John Jaso etc... these players are not exciting to watch. Outside of a few good pitchers, Kiermaier and maybe Longoria, watching them play is like watching paint dry.

 

This describes the rays perfectly

[43211234]

Didn't read the thread but f*** the Rays!

[Spanky99]

You've been told Hurl, you Silverback, lol... (lets leave that animal open)

[Spanky99]

You need a beer mate?

[Spanky99]

I have half their Rotation next year, well, at least before the all-star break, they're good, bats, not so much.

[BTS]

This describes the rays perfectly

 

I think they're pretty exciting aside from their awful home park and lack of fans. Kiermaier is a human highlight reel, Longoria is basically Scott Rolen, Archer is a top-5 pitcher to watch, Cobb is a monster, and I enjoy their platooning. The Twins are the most boring team in baseball.

[TheHurl]

I think they're pretty exciting aside from their awful home park and lack of fans. Kiermaier is a human highlight reel, Longoria is basically Scott Rolen, Archer is a top-5 pitcher to watch, Cobb is a monster, and I enjoy their platooning. The Twins are the most boring team in baseball.

 

San Diego for me.

[vdubmvp]

San Diego for me.

 

Agreed. They've always been a team that's kind of just there to me. Completely uninteresting. Those camo alts are also the worst jerseys ever, so that doesn't help.