Ace worth the money - Price or perhaps Greinke?

[art_vandelay275]

Let's say that we get the money to go after an ace next year (I know it's a big if as we don't have any ideas on the policies of the new regime), for the sake of discussion on an off-day, I am wondering whether Price is the right guy. The last Cleveland start was a case in point. They got 2 in the 7th even though Price gave us the shutdown after we scored in the 5th. Even with the Bautista bobble and all that, Raburn and Sands were legit hits IMO and of course there was the Santana walk. I was expecting that a 2-1 lead would be all a "true" ace needed. Note that I am not blaming Price for that inning. After all Bautista clearly misplayed the ball and arguaby, Sands' hit was a bit of a "seeing eye" since if Tulo had played a little more to his right, it might have been a routine ground out. This is more of a hypothetical...

 

From a character point of view, there is no doubt that advantage goes to Price. It's not that Greinke is a bad guy from what I read, it's just that he's a bit of a flake; he's "out there". Also Greinke is turning 32 in Oct whereas Price just turned 30.

 

I'm talking about FA and I'm assuming Greinke is going to opt out. Other notable potential candidates are Cueto, Zimmerman, Fister, Kazmir, Samardzija

 

Personally, I'd be giddy if we ended up with either Price or Greinke though probably not Cueto.

[Laika]

If they get money to go after an Ace, I'd spend it on a big Donaldson extension instead.

[BTS]

I don't think there's really a situation under which a $30M per year increase to a budget is best spent on long-term deal for a pitcher.

[GD]

If they get money to go after an Ace, I'd spend it on a big Donaldson extension instead.

 

I'd probably spend it on Heyward or Upton, depending on the length

[Abomination]

From a character point of view, there is no doubt that advantage goes to Price. It's not that Greinke is a bad guy from what I read, it's just that he's a bit of a flake; he's "out there". Also Greinke is turning 32 in Oct whereas Price just turned 30.

 

I'm talking about FA and I'm assuming Greinke is going to opt out. Other notable potential candidates are Cueto, Zimmerman, Fister, Kazmir, Samardzija

 

Personally, I'd be giddy if we ended up with either Price or Greinke though probably not Cueto.

 

I would take Price over any of the others easily, especially since Price seems to fit in really well in the clubhouse, and seems to have the intelligence to remain effective as his stuff declines. I think Samardzija could be interesting secondary addition as well. He's having a rough year, and could come at a nice discount. His stuff still seems to be good, and in fact the only real changes seem to be an increase in movement, and throwing more cutters instead of 2-seamers (maybe the similarity between the cutter and the slider is why his slider has suddenly got very hittable?)

[dineke]

I'd probably spend it on Heyward or Upton, depending on the length

 

Isn't heyward going to get something like 200 million?

[Laika]

Isn't heyward going to get something like 200 million?

 

I don't see why he would get anything close to that

[GD]

Isn't heyward going to get something like 200 million?

 

Teams pay less for defense than they do offense

 

market inefficiencies yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay

[reedjohnsonfan]

Teams pay less for defense than they do offense

 

market inefficiencies yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay

 

Isn't defense more volatile?

[dineke]

Heyward at a reasonable price would be awesome then. What are the chances he doesn't re-sign with the Cards though? They for sure value defense.

[Daniel Labude]

Spend the dang money on Price!!!!

[labadee]

give me price

[z3r0s]

I don't think Price will be a wise investment... but I would be giddy as a school-girl if we signed him all the same.

[GD]

Isn't defense more volatile?

 

Not as an actual skill, it's just harder / takes longer to evaluate. There's enough of a sample to determine that he's obviously a very high quality defender.

[Krylian]

I don't think Price will be a wise investment... but I would be giddy as a school-girl if we signed him all the same.

 

I think he can be counted on for 4-5 more good-to-great seasons.

[Hipfan]

I'd take Price; I know that some people wouldn't like the contract, but I think it might be wise to front load it, to account for future raises for Stroman and Donaldson. There is a ton of money coming off the books, and I think a 20M (USD) payroll increase would be warranted, especially if there is a deep playoff run.

 

While I think Greinke is great, I don't see him coming to Toronto, and if you're going to pay big for a pitcher, I think the 2 year age difference is pretty big, and I'd go for the younger one.

[art_vandelay275]

I think that's the point. If it were our money, it wouldn't be a wise investment but the point is that it's not. It's at the discretion of Rogers (or Guggeinheim to polarize the discussion) what they want to invest based on they believe is an acceptable/equitable return. MLB is not like the NBA where there is a cap.

 

I think most savvy fan who somewhat understand the economics of baseball knows that it's not a wise investment to spend that much on a FA ace who likely will be in his mid/late thirties by the time the contract ends. The evidence both past (Sabathia) and present (Verlander) are plain to see

 

I don't think Price will be a wise investment... but I would be giddy as a school-girl if we signed him all the same.

[Abomination]

Isn't defense more volatile?

 

I think the bigger issue with the defense (at least at a position like CF), is that in general, speed declines much faster, and at a younger age. If I remember right, there's a big drop off around 23 to 24, and another in the 27 to 29 range. This is likely due to the addition of muscle, which is typical for players in these age ranges. There ARE players who see very little decline in their legs, but not many. My fear with someone like Heyward, would be that a reasonable loss in his speed probably turns him into a 2.5 to 3 WAR player. Still plenty valuable, but not the 5+ WAR guy he is right now.

 

Trout is a perfect example of the speed decrease (although his bat is so damned good, it more than makes up for it).

[GD]

I think the bigger issue with the defense (at least at a position like CF), is that in general, speed declines much faster, and at a younger age. If I remember right, there's a big drop off around 23 to 24, and another in the 27 to 29 range. This is likely due to the addition of muscle, which is typical for players in these age ranges. There ARE players who see very little decline in their legs, but not many. My fear with someone like Heyward, would be that a reasonable loss in his speed probably turns him into a 2.5 to 3 WAR player. Still plenty valuable, but not the 5+ WAR guy he is right now.

 

Trout is a perfect example of the speed decrease (although his bat is so damned good, it more than makes up for it).

 

Hence I specified "depending on the length." His stable 120ish wRC+ bat makes him a solid asset though, if his defense keeps up for several years he should make up for the contract.

[nmrch]

Teams pay less for defense than they do offense

 

market inefficiencies yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay

 

Teams also pay a premium for youth when it comes to FA, Heyward is almost unprecedentedly young for a free agent. He's looking at 150 million minimum, that's just Ellsbury money and Heyward is three years younger. 200 million is on the cards and wouldn't be shocking in any way

[GD]

I don't think anyone is going to pay $200 million for Jason Heyward just because he's not super old

[nmrch]

Heyward at a reasonable price would be awesome then. What are the chances he doesn't re-sign with the Cards though? They for sure value defense.

 

Heyward won't be an undervalued asset in the least. He'll be a 26 year old free agent with 25 WAR under his belt, he'll be highly sought after.

[bendera3]

As someone here mentioned, if we WERE to resign price, perhaps frontloading the contract would be wise.

[nmrch]

I don't think anyone is going to pay $200 million for Jason Heyward just because he's not super old

 

If you look at comparables like Crawford and Ellsbury and account for age they will. Even a seven year contract only runs until he's 34, the reduction in risk is very important and teams will pony up for that

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/estimating-jason-heywards-next-contract/

[GD]

I don't think people will be eager to replicate the Ellsbury/Crawford contracts.

[BigCecil]

Love to get J Zimmerman. Same age as Price. Not as expensive and not the term likely. (and not as good). Still solid addition along with Stroman to 2016 rotation.

[dineke]

They'll probably make some trade that nobody saw coming for the 2016 cy young winner.

 

Edit: Meant 2016 cy young runner-up, because we all know Stroman is winning it.

[Trouba95]

Sign Price to 7 and trade him after year 3 or something. Filter out, reset and contend again.

[Trouba95]

Or frontload as one person said.

[Followthelight]

Sign Price to 7 and trade him after year 3 or something. Filter out, reset and contend again.

 

What if in 3 years no one wants him with that big contract and he has been either Injured/regressed with age?