General Discussion Thread

[KingKat]

How complicated a Happ piece do we need? Would a Dave Cameron type, basic stats and projections, comparing the price to Zimmerman and a quote and a link to the Fangraphs piece suffice?

[NorthOf49]

How complicated a Happ piece do we need? Would a Dave Cameron type, basic stats and projections, comparing the price to Zimmerman and a quote and a link to the Fangraphs piece suffice?

Yes, the basic projection stuff and then a couple paragraphs explaining something like,

1) Happ hasn't just been good for 11 starts, he's pitched at the level of this contract throughout 2014-2015. His last 11 starts do provide upside, however because:

2) With pitchers, it's not unreasonable to bump expectations based on several good starts. There are real changes that Happ made in Pittsburgh (refined release point) and peripherals that stabilize quickly do point to improvement.

 

You can include a sentence with FRIAS too if you'd like. It pegs his 2015 effort at 20.7% K%, 7.0% BB%, 2.9% HR% for a 3.95 FIP, which is basically average.

 

It's up to you to decide how to arrange the future WARs and environment parameters!

[KingKat]

Yes, the basic projection stuff and then a couple paragraphs explaining something like,

1) Happ hasn't just been good for 11 starts, he's pitched at the level of this contract throughout 2014-2015. His last 11 starts do provide upside, however because:

2) With pitchers, it's not unreasonable to bump expectations based on several good starts. There are real changes that Happ made in Pittsburgh (refined release point) and peripherals that stabilize quickly do point to improvement.

 

You can include a sentence with FRIAS too if you'd like. It pegs his 2015 effort at 20.7% K%, 7.0% BB%, 2.9% HR% for a 3.95 FIP, which is basically average.

 

It's up to you to decide how to arrange the future WARs and environment parameters!

 

O.K. I have something in mind and I've been meaning to contribute more to the blog. I'll see if I can whip something out on Happ this afternoon. I'm also still planning to do a Holiday themed piece on baseball books which I should probably finish sooner rather than later becaue it's prime shopping season right now.

[KingKat]

O.K. I have something in mind and I've been meaning to contribute more to the blog. I'll see if I can whip something out on Happ this afternoon. I'm also still planning to do a Holiday themed piece on baseball books which I should probably finish sooner rather than later becaue it's prime shopping season right now.

 

 

Yeah so sorry about dropping the ball on this. I thought I would get a chance to work on it and I did not. Since then a new Fangraphs take (perfectly cromulent rotation) came out and the subject seems pretty well covered. Seems like I would just be parroting at this point and I don't understand FRIAS enough to really give a FRIAS specific analyisis with any degree of sincerity. New thing to talk about is David Price but fans who were willing to pay any price for him won't be talked off the ledge.

[NorthOf49]

Yeah so sorry about dropping the ball on this. I thought I would get a chance to work on it and I did not. Since then a new Fangraphs take (perfectly cromulent rotation) came out and the subject seems pretty well covered. Seems like I would just be parroting at this point and I don't understand FRIAS enough to really give a FRIAS specific analyisis with any degree of sincerity. New thing to talk about is David Price but fans who were willing to pay any price for him won't be talked off the ledge.

Sure, write something about David Price! Fangraphs won't do that from a Jays perspective. One thing to say about it is that teams do pay a premium for top-end pitching. For whatever reason, many teams are obsessed with having an "ace" and that may not be rational, especially in the regular season. Toronto's pitching staff is set up well.

[NorthOf49]

Would definitely be nice to get something up this week. Maybe I'll start writing under a pseudonym.

[BTS]

Would definitely be nice to get something up this week. Maybe I'll start writing under a pseudonym.

 

Dr. Andre Nowzick

[Cyborg]

Dr. Andre Nowzick

No, that's KingKat!

[Laika]

Where is GD? High school is meaningless. He should be writing non-stop.

[NorthOf49]

I mostly want to write about the RA9 vs. ERA thing that I've been thinking about for a while. There is a void on the internet for a well-researched definitive piece on how using ERA as the base "real run prevention" stat affects certain types of pitchers more than others. I would come up with the theoretical expected ERA-RA9 difference for different qualities and types of pitcher and then use real past data to illustrate how the effect works. Everyone seems to agree now that using errors to evaluate defenders is fraught with issues yet nobody even realizes that ERA is heavily damaged by them too. The ERA-RA9 difference is invisible. I don't think really anyone knows off hand what an average RA9-ERA difference is for different qualities of pitcher. Yet any time you cite ERA, you're specifically attempting to reference the actual run prevention performance of a pitcher. Fangraphs being so slow to change their stats (probably due to their writers only being writers) is part of the issue since they're so central to the sabermetrics community.

 

The RA9 thing would have fit into the concept of fixing baseball's base accounting that I was going to push with Saber Resource. Earned runs, hits and at bats are arbitrary concepts that should be wiped from slash lines. Everyone loves to hate on average these days because it's not on-base percentage, but I think the larger issue it's that reaching on error isn't included and the denominator excludes a whole bunch of stuff. Should be replaced with "contact reaches per PA." Then to get OBP you can just add walks and HBP to the numerator.

[BTS]

Would you even be allowed to publish that while employed by the team?

[Cyborg]

Would you even be allowed to publish that while employed by the team?

No. But before he starts it's fine.

[NorthOf49]

No, that's KingKat!

Wouldn't KingKat be the Seth Rogen character? He's an actual librarian!

 

Would you even be allowed to publish that while employed by the team?

Nah, I'm not going to be writing stuff this offseason. I wish I had written it earlier in the year.

[Cyborg]

Wouldn't KingKat be the Seth Rogen character? He's an actual librarian!

 

 

Nah, I'm not going to be writing stuff this offseason. I wish I had written it earlier in the year.

But his first name is Andre, natural fit.

[Laika]

I mostly want to write about the RA9 vs. ERA thing that I've been thinking about for a while. There is a void on the internet for a well-researched definitive piece on how using ERA as the base "real run prevention" stat affects certain types of pitchers more than others. I would come up with the theoretical expected ERA-RA9 difference for different qualities and types of pitcher and then use real past data to illustrate how the effect works. Everyone seems to agree now that using errors to evaluate defenders is fraught with issues yet nobody even realizes that ERA is heavily damaged by them too. The ERA-RA9 difference is invisible. I don't think really anyone knows off hand what an average RA9-ERA difference is for different qualities of pitcher. Yet any time you cite ERA, you're specifically attempting to reference the actual run prevention performance of a pitcher. Fangraphs being so slow to change their stats (probably due to their writers only being writers) is part of the issue since they're so central to the sabermetrics community.

 

The RA9 thing would have fit into the concept of fixing baseball's base accounting that I was going to push with Saber Resource. Earned runs, hits and at bats are arbitrary concepts that should be wiped from slash lines. Everyone loves to hate on average these days because it's not on-base percentage, but I think the larger issue it's that reaching on error isn't included and the denominator excludes a whole bunch of stuff. Should be replaced with "contact reaches per PA." Then to get OBP you can just add walks and HBP to the numerator.

 

If you write it I would be willing to take one for the team and take all of the credit

[GD]

Where is GD? High school is meaningless. He should be writing non-stop.

 

I've been sick for 3 full weeks. Need to catch up in my grade 12 courses so that I can:

 

1. Get into Waterloo

2. Get a degree

3. Slide into a nice cushy job

4. Get rich

5. Bang BTS' mom

6. Loop to step 5

[Laika]

I've been sick for 3 full weeks. Need to catch up in my grade 12 courses so that I can:

 

1. Get into Waterloo

2. Get a degree

3. Slide into a nice cushy job

4. Get rich

5. Bang BTS' mom

6. Loop to step 5

 

3 and 5 seem like the same thing

[GD]

I give it 4 seconds until BTS posts "My mom is dead."

[BTS]

I've been sick for 3 full weeks. Need to catch up in my grade 12 courses so that I can:

 

1. Get into Waterloo

2. Get a degree

3. Slide into a nice cushy job

4. Get rich

5. Bang BTS' mom

6. Loop to step 5

 

My mom is dead.

[admin]

He didn't say it was going to be easy.

[GD]

My mom is dead.

 

Is that a problem?

[baubau]

Is that a problem?

 

http://i.imgur.com/oTmYsQf.gif

 

Went a little dark there buddy.

[NorthOf49]

Baubau, have you thought about writing up one of these transactions? We need content!

[baubau]

Baubau, have you thought about writing up one of these transactions? We need content!

 

[baubau]

All kidding aside, have been busy bossman. Work has gotten cray. I'll work on something for Happ now and post it for review here tonight, before I go to bed. I have no idea where I put that Osuna article. :S

 

E: Update - sent GD and iWOK to proof read and provide feedback first.

Edited December 6, 2015 by baubau

[John_Havok]

Is that a problem?

 

Got in a fight at a bar once because some guy was being a collossal douchecanoe, told him I f***ed his mom ... he says she's dead... I said yeah its cuz I f***ed her to death. He wasn't pleased

[GD]

Got in a fight at a bar once because some guy was being a collossal douchecanoe, told him I f***ed his mom ... he says she's dead... I said yeah its cuz I f***ed her to death. He wasn't pleased

 

holy f*** you're my favorite

 

SOMEONE WRITE UP THE DBACKS TRADE!!

[NorthOf49]

This is messed up. GD, instead of wasting time on Facebook/the board, just write up 600 words now.

[NorthOf49]

So you guys aren't going to write anything?

 

Even just a few paragraphs about depth pitchers who are available would be nice.

 

All kidding aside, have been busy bossman. Work has gotten cray. I'll work on something for Happ now and post it for review here tonight, before I go to bed. I have no idea where I put that Osuna article. :S

 

E: Update - sent GD and iWOK to proof read and provide feedback first.

Did the feedback from this happen?

[GD]

I provided feedback. I can write over the holidays, maybe