General Discussion Thread

[NorthOf49]

Hey, how do we take graphs from brooks baseball and paste them in the articles. Is it just the same as adding a picture?

 

Digging into Estrada's HR rate also revealed he has the second lowest babip allowed among all qualified SP, and it's steadily gone down each year since 2012. I'm now trying to work on some sort of explanation in as well.

Yes, you would save the graph as a picture and then upload it into your post.

 

Estrada's true-talent BABIP probably isn't that close to his .234 mark. Steamer has .279 going forward.

[intentional wok]

Admin added me last night to this group. I'll keep an eye on it when I make my visits to the boards.

 

Looking forward to seeing what you guys put together.

[GD]

SHAPIRO SHAPIRO SHAPIRO SHAPIRO

 

I'm gonna get going on a SHAPIRO article that I think we'll wait until the announcement to publish. Analysis site, not breaking news

[NorthOf49]

The franchise is saved!! Not even hyperbole.

 

GD, get it up tomorrow. We need content and this is an easy article.

[GD]

Well, the announcement would be coming tomorrow. so yes.

[NorthOf49]

Well, the announcement would be coming tomorrow. so yes.

Mention how Shapiro is reunited with Jason Pare. And yes, tomorrow would be great/necessary.

 

My zone stuff is going great! There's a lot of game theory involved in zone throwing. On 3-2 and 0-0, ball in zone vs. not doesn't matter much.

[GD]

Yeah I was just thinking about that yesterday, game theory. I was thinking about that in relation to pitch sequencing, actually.

[NorthOf49]

Yeah I was just thinking about that yesterday, game theory. I was thinking about that in relation to pitch sequencing, actually.

MGL is always tweeting about it and sequencing, so I'm always thinking about it too lol. The zone numbers provide a pretty clear illustration of it. The difference between throwing in the zone and not throwing in the zone is usually pretty marginal, because pitchers and hitters are close to the Nash equilibrium.

 

All pitchers have a greater ability to throw the ball in the zone than most people think. They throw it out of the zone 55% because they're incentivized to, not because it's the limit of their zone-throwing ability.

[GD]

and then there's Aaron Sanchez

[GD]

Guys I need a name for my crappy little usage metric. It just compares TIPS to leverage index to find who's over/under used, nothing big. I was thinking TRU - Talent Relative Usage. Just want something catchy and publishable.

[Laika]

Guys I need a name for my crappy little usage metric. It just compares TIPS to leverage index to find who's over/under used, nothing big. I was thinking TRU - Talent Relative Usage. Just want something catchy and publishable.

 

You shouldn't name it anything, unless you call it "the Jacob factor".

[GD]

You shouldn't name it anything, unless you call it "the Jacob factor".

 

Meh, sounds too Jewish

 

You should write something

[Laika]

Hyperextended my pinky and came down with fibromyalgia. Can't.

[GD]

Speaking of "sounds too Jewish"

[John_Havok]

My estrada article just got more ammo.

 

I DIDN'T REALY SEE A SLIDE COMPARING HIM TO CHRIS SALE AND FELIX HERNANDEZ DID I?

[baubau]

My estrada article just got more ammo.

 

I DIDN'T REALY SEE A SLIDE COMPARING HIM TO CHRIS SALE AND FELIX HERNANDEZ DID I?

 

Speaking of that article, any idea when it may be up? People are already on the other side of the "sign him" fence and we need to prove them otherwise dammit!

BTW, how is the wife? Hope she is recovering well.

[John_Havok]

She's annoying and feeble.... lol

 

Should have it up this weekend.

[John_Havok]

Here's the article: give it a quick peruse and see if it needs anything else. I've got the Fangraphs player page as a graphic between paragraphs 3 and 4.

 

 

 

When Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos acquired SP Marco Estrada from the Brewers this past offseason for 1B Adam Lind, the logic behind the move was fairly easy to see. The Jays needed arms, and they had an extra bat to use as currency. They made the deal and both sides have enjoyed success from their respective players. Lind is on pace to up just over 2 WAR for a team that is going nowhere while not paying him a ton, and Estrada is having an unexpectedly great year for a team having it's best season in 2 decades.

 

But is he really having a great year? I can here you out there saying of course! 11 wins and an ERA just over 3? That's fantastic! And that's a fair point of view to have unless you understand the failings of those two stats in particular. ERA gives credit to the pitcher for everything that happens on the playing field after the ball leaves his hand, including good and bad defense, hit sequencing and random luck. Wins give credit to the pitcher for giving up 8 runs, while your offense scores 10. It's just not good. There are better ways to judge a pitcher's skillset and value.

 

So back to Marco Estrada and his ERA just over 3 with 11 wins. The book on Estrada prior to this season was a typical one for a lot of pitchers. He doesn't throw hard, he relies on command and control and gives up too many home runs. And boy, did he love to give up home runs! With a tip of the cap to Fangraphs for providing the numbers, you can see that somehow Marco Estrada is getting good results, despite having some of the worst numbers of his career. Estrada Fangraphs

 

In comparing Marco Estrada in 2015 to his past years, we will focus on 2012-2014, since those are the years he threw the most comparable amount of innings to what he will throw in 2015. From 2012 to 2015, Estrada has seen his strikeouts go from 9.3 K/9 to just 6.98 K/9 this season. His walk rate has gone up each year from 1.89 BB/9 in 2012 to 2.89 BB/9 in 2015. But, how does that make sense if Estrada is seeing his best career ERA while his K numbers drop and his BB numbers rise? There are two main reasons for this, and the first is home runs.

 

Estrada has been adept at avoiding the long ball in Toronto despite historically serving up dingers at either near or above league average every other year he has pitched. His HR/FB% has gone up each year from 2012 at 10.5%(MLB average was 11.3%) to 13.2% in 2015(MLB average 10.5%), yet in 2015 he has managed to give up only 7.6% of HR on his fly balls(MLB average is 11.1%). That's a pretty big decrease over last season, especially considering Roger's Centre is a notoriously homer friendly park and Estrada continues to be a fly ball pitcher in 2015(51.1% - also the highest of his career). A career high in fly ball rate plus the friendly confines of his home park alone should give us pause and expect that more balls are going to be leaving the yard in the future.

 

The second part of Estrada's wizardry in 2015 is due to a massive decrease in his BABIP(batting average on balls in play). MLB average BABIP in 2015 is .295. It doesn't change much from year to year as it was .295 in 2014, .294 in 2013, .293 in 2012 .. etc. Suffice to say BABIP is typically very stable, whether you're the best pitcher in the game or one of the worst. Marco Estrada has a .229 BABIP, good for the lowest mark amongst all SP with the arbitrarily chosen 120 innings pitched or more. The effect of a low BABIP is not hard to see, fewer people getting hits, even with an increase to walk rate, means there are fewer men on base, which means fewer runs scored even if he does give up a home run, which we've seen already that he's avoiding this year despite having his career worst fly ball rate.

 

This is not meant to say that Estrada is a bad pitcher. In fact, you can see why Anthopoulos was interested in him as a trade target as a guy who was quite likely getting unlucky in the amount of homers he gave up, while still striking out his share of batters and walking relatively few. This year however, the strikeouts are down, walks are up yet, and his home run rate and BABIP are well below what history tells us we should be expecting from him. Every year there are pitchers around baseball who benefit from awful defense, bad sequencing, bad luck and others, like Estrada, who benefit from great defense behind them, beneficial sequencing and luck. That's baseball. But when that guy shows up on a TV broadcast being compared to Chris Sale and Felix Hernandez (looking at you Rogers Sportsnet.... REALLY!?!?), when a closer look at his supporting numbers quite clearly indicates that regression should be expected, we should thank our lucky stars that Estrada has the results he has for the Jays and just hope that it continues until the end of the season and playoffs. When the regression comes, it will probably be very ugly.

[BTS]

When Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos acquired SP Marco Estrada from the Brewers this past offseason for 1B Adam Lind, the logic behind the move was fairly easy to see. The Jays needed arms, and they had an extra bat to use as currency. They made the deal and both sides have enjoyed success from their respective players. Lind is on pace to up just over 2 WAR for a team that is going nowhere while not paying him a ton, and Estrada is having an unexpectedly great year for a team having it's best season in 2 decades.

 

But is he really having a great year? I can hear you out there saying "of course! 11 wins and an ERA just over 3? That's fantastic!" And that's a fair point of view to have unless you understand the failings of those two stats in particular. ERA gives credit to the pitcher for everything that happens on the playing field after the ball leaves his hand, including good and bad defense, hit sequencing and random luck. Wins give credit to the pitcher for giving up 8 runs, while your offense scores 10. It's just not good. There are better ways to judge a pitcher's skillset and value.

 

So back to Marco Estrada and his ERA just over 3 with 11 wins. The book on Estrada prior to this season was a typical one for a lot of pitchers. He doesn't throw hard, he relies on command and control and gives up too many home runs. And boy, did he love to give up home runs! With a tip of the cap to Fangraphs for providing the numbers, you can see that somehow Marco Estrada is getting good results, despite having some of the worst numbers of his career. Estrada Fangraphs

 

In comparing Marco Estrada in 2015 to his past years, we will focus on 2012-2014, since those are the years he threw the most comparable amount of innings to what he will throw in 2015. From 2012 to 2015, Estrada has seen his strikeouts go from 9.3 K/9 to just 6.98 K/9 this season. His walk rate has gone up each year from 1.89 BB/9 in 2012 to 2.89 BB/9 in 2015. But how does that make sense if Estrada is seeing his best career ERA while his K numbers drop and his BB numbers rise? There are two main reasons for this, and the first is home runs.

 

Estrada has been adept at avoiding the long ball in Toronto despite historically serving up dingers at either near or above league average every other year he has pitched. His HR/FB% has gone up each year from 2012 at 10.5%(MLB average was 11.3%) to 13.2% in 2015(MLB average 10.5%), yet in 2015 he has managed to give up only 7.6% of HR on his fly balls(MLB average is 11.1%). That's a pretty big decrease over last season, especially considering Rogers Centre is a notoriously homer friendly park and Estrada continues to be a fly ball pitcher in 2015(51.1% - also the highest of his career). A career high in fly ball rate plus the friendly confines of his home park alone should give us pause and expect that more balls are going to be leaving the yard in the future.

 

The second part of Estrada's wizardry in 2015 is due to a massive decrease in his BABIP(batting average on balls in play). MLB average BABIP in 2015 is .295. It doesn't change much from year to year as it was .295 in 2014, .294 in 2013, .293 in 2012 .. etc. Suffice to say BABIP is typically very stable, whether you're the best pitcher in the game or one of the worst. Marco Estrada has a .229 BABIP, good for the lowest mark amongst all SP with the arbitrarily chosen 120 innings pitched or more. The effect of a low BABIP is not hard to see; fewer people getting hits, even with an increase to walk rate, means there are fewer men on base, which means fewer runs scored even if he does give up a home run, which we've seen already that he's avoiding this year despite having his career worst fly ball rate.

 

This is not meant to say that Estrada is a bad pitcher. In fact, you can see why Anthopoulos was interested in him as a trade target as a guy who was quite likely getting unlucky in the amount of homers he gave up, while still striking out his share of batters and walking relatively few. This year however, the strikeouts are down, walks are up yet, and his home run rate and BABIP are well below what history tells us we should be expecting from him. Every year there are pitchers around baseball who benefit from awful defense, bad sequencing, bad luck and others, like Estrada, who benefit from great defense behind them, beneficial sequencing and luck. That's baseball. But when that guy shows up on a TV broadcast being compared to Chris Sale and Felix Hernandez (looking at you Rogers Sportsnet.... REALLY!?!?), when a closer look at his supporting numbers quite clearly indicates that regression should be expected, we should thank our lucky stars that Estrada has the results he has for the Jays and just hope that it continues until the end of the season and playoffs. When the regression comes, it will probably be very ugly.

[BTS]

Just read it and bolded a few typos. Solid article havok. The only thing I'd maybe like to see is you touch on where you expect his value lies after regression hits.

[John_Havok]

Righto.

 

Tagged the end with "When the regression comes, it will probably be ugly and show that Estrada is more like the 4.00-4.25 ERA type of arm, or worse if his strikeout numbers don't start trending back up, that you don't need to lose any sleep over when it comes to deciding whether or he should be re-signed at the end of the season. "

 

Kind of opens the door for a companion article, if any one is currently working on one, about the Jays in general and their SP concerns going into next year. Or even another article on Estrada, his cutter usage this year, pitch values, etc to actually attempt to explain why his BABIP is ridiculously low.

Edited September 6, 2015 by John_Havok

[John_Havok]

First pitch is about 10 minutes away, so I'm gonna put it up.

[baubau]

Sorry peeps, that Osuna article is delayed. Life is in the way. Plus some general laziness.

[Laika]

I finally wrote something fluffy! I can pub tomorrow. Maybe North or GD wants to do a companion piece on SP and RP keeper sleepers (using TIPS?), and run the next day?

[Laika]

Fantasy Keeper Sleepers for 2016.

 

It’s likely that your fantasy baseball season is over, but your league is still active. If you’re looking for offseason assets or potential keepers who could contribute in 2016, consider these names.

 

1B/OF – Clint Robinson

 

Robinson is a target for thin rosters in deep leagues. He’ll carry duel eligibility at 1B and OF next year, which will be his age 31 season. Robinson has a .350 wOBA this year in 291 PA, with a normal looking BABIP and very solid K and BB rates. In his extensive minor league career he had a .208 ISO, so he probably has a bit more true talent pop at the MLB level than he displayed this year (.147 ISO). Washington will be relying on two injury prone veterans at LF and 1B in 2016, Werth and Zimmerman, so playing time opportunities could be abundant for Robinson, especially if Denard Span walks and Michael Taylor becomes the starting CF, rather than a bench player.

 

C – JT Realmuto

 

Catchers that run are rare animals, and Realmuto has 7 steals in 423 PA this year for Miami. Last year he stole 18 bags in AA. He also has an impressive .150 ISO, with 10 homers, while playing half of his games in spacious Marlins Park. Realmuto is a legitimate young catcher who will get a starter’s workload and could conceivably OPS over .700 next year. Depending on the depth of your league, he could be an asset worth scooping up before the offseason.

 

C – Welington Castillo

 

Since landing in Arizona part way through this season, Castillo has clubbed 17 home runs, good for a .280 ISO and a .381 wOBA. His 19 HR on the season are tied for 3rd for MLB catchers, behind only Martin and McCann, and he’s done it in just 335 PA – over 100 less than his closest peers. Castillo has always had a decent offensive profile for a catcher, and in Arizona he should be one of the best hitting catchers in 2016.

 

3B – Jake Lamb

 

Lamb was a very interesting 2015 sleeper who had his season derailed by injuries. Two years ago in AA, Lamb had a .419 wOBA and 162 wRC+. The year prior in high A, he had a .424 wOBA, good for a 156 wRC+. Those are monster prospect numbers, and his age vs. level was appropriate at the time too. He held his own in 346 PA this year, but had issues translating his minor league power to the big leagues. He’ll still be only 25 next season, so look for him to make some power gains and rank favourably on the 3B landscape. Add him now if you can.

 

OF – David Peralta

 

From Parra, to Pollock, to Peralta - the Diamondbacks aren’t good at much, but the organization has a knack for turning guys who look like fourth outfielders into legitimate players. Peralta is a good player story. He was a bad minor league pitcher for two of his teenage years in the St. Louis organization, but came back to the game as an outfielder through Independent baseball in his 20’s. Peralta doesn’t have Pollock’s SB potential, but he does have a hit tool, strong projections, and a .200+ ISO right now in 2015. He might be available if your league isn’t super deep.

(Bonus Arizona OF – think about Ender Inciarte too, especially if you lack SB).

 

OF – Chris Coghlan

 

Coghlan was actually a better hitter, all things considered, last season, when he posted a .353 wOBA for the Cubs. But this year his fantasy counting stats have ticked up, and he’s gone 16/11 through 465 PA. He platoons a bit, but he hits from the correct side of the platoon for fantasy purposes (the left side), and the Cubs offense is quite good now so if Coghlan is in the lineup frequently in 2016 and hitting near guys like Schwarber and Rizzo, the runs and RBI totals should be decent too.

 

OF – Preston Tucker

 

Tucker has a 108 wRC+ in 302 PA this year at the MLB level. The 25 year old consistently hit for average and power in the minor leagues, with solid K and BB rates at all levels. It’s easy to be reminded of Kole Calhoun, a past sleeper success story. Colby Rasmus is a free agent this winter, so Tucker could end up as a starter in Houston’s OF next year. Even if he platoons in 2016, he’s left handed, which is the good side of the platoon for fantasy purposes.

 

OF – Jackie Bradley Jr. and Aaron Hicks

 

JBJ and Hicks are two very similar stories. Both are former top OF prospects that struggled mightily at the MLB level in their age 23 and 24 seasons. If you’re in a dynasty league, these two were probably drafted as prospects but dropped some time before 2015. This year, Hicks has finally cut his K rate down to a respectable level, and he’s accruing counting stats at a 20/20 pace. JBJ has been more than respectable, with a .274 ISO and .379 wOBA in his 1/3 of a season. The strikeouts are still a bit concerning for Bradley Jr. (29.5% K rate), but his minor league track record speaks to someone that has good plate discipline skills, so maybe he can make gains in that area. Consider these two post-post-hype sleepers if they are free agents.

 

 

2B/SS – ?

 

The middle infield does not have an abundant amount of 2016 sleepers. Players like Panik and Crawford have been far too good this year to consider them as sleepers, and good young performers like Odor and Lindor have too much prospect pedigree to be sleepy. Here are a few possible sleepers though:

 

Logan Forsythe - has had a strong offensive season in Tampa Bay, and could be a 2B sleeper in your league if he’s somehow gone unnoticed.

 

Jedd Gyorko – Mo money mo problems, amirite, Jerko? Jedd, big contract in hand, will still be just 27 years old next year, and he sneakily picked up SS eligibility this season for some leagues, which means he’ll have it in 2016. The offense bounced back a little bit as well, with 14 homers in 396 PA so far this year – that’ll play at SS, in some leagues. In terms of skill, he’s still essentially the same dude that clubbed 23 homers in 2013.

 

Brad Miller – Miller is an underappreciated player who has been effective and productive in every season, yet the dysfunctional Mariners can’t seem to just leave him the **** alone at shortstop. Even if he’s an OF next year, he’ll be SS eligible for fantasy. He has slashline talent and 15/15 upside. He projects to be a league average hitter, which will play at SS in lots of leagues.

 

Marcus Semien – he has a broad offensive skill set, but his numbers were probably affected by his huge, much publicized defensive struggles at shortstop this year. Give him a mulligan for 2016. There’s OBP and 20/20 upside here, I swear.

 

Cesar Hernandez – he could start at 2B for the Phillies and steal some bases, I guess? In the minors, he hit (almost) .300, with a couple of 30+ SB campaigns. Could be useful in 5x5 leagues.

 

Ryan Goins - … just kidding!

 

For SP and RP keeper sleepers, check out resident nerd Spencer Estey's article tomorrow.

[NorthOf49]

Nice! I could definitely write something on pitchers. Edited September 21, 2015 by NorthOf49

[John_Havok]

We should put out something about award predicting soon, as nauseating and predicatable as that might be. Each of us can write a small blurb about the big awards in each league, MVP, CY and ROY.

[NorthOf49]

We should put out something about award predicting soon, as nauseating and predicatable as that might be. Each of us can write a small blurb about the big awards in each league, MVP, CY and ROY.

That's a good idea. We did something similar for pre-season predictions and it worked well since it was fast to create and allowed us to share opinions. We should probably wait until the last few days of the season to make our decisions, since there's still some baseball left.

[NorthOf49]

I'll have the pitching sleepers article up by mid-day tomorrow. I've already decided on the pitchers and have some time in the morning to write it up.

[NorthOf49]

Alright it's up! http://www.breakingblue.ca/2015/09/21/fantasy-keeper-pitching-sleepers-for-2016/

 

Edit: I just tied CC in posts, with 31

Edited September 21, 2015 by NorthOf49