General Discussion Thread

[BTS]

http://www.hardballtimes.com/a-short-ish-introduction-to-using-r-for-baseball-research/

 

Some of you guys might find this interesting.

[John_Havok]

Getting to the point where I think the award picks article could get underway.

 

Once the Jays clinch the east we can do a playoff preview, etc

[NorthOf49]

http://www.hardballtimes.com/a-short-ish-introduction-to-using-r-for-baseball-research/

 

Some of you guys might find this interesting.

R is pretty cool and definitely something that I'm going to keep learning. It's nice that we use it in many of my stats courses. I know that JFAS uses it pretty extensively. GD is getting into it too. I actually have the book by Max Marchi that Petti talks about in that article.

 

Making graphics using it can be difficult but is necessary since Excel charts aren't customizable enough. I've been getting better at it. I'm actually taking an Economics of Sports class this term and had an assignment where I needed to investigate the relationship between winning and attendance for a major sports team. Here's one of the graphics I came up with for my report (which was about the Astros):

 

 

I think it looks pretty good. I'd like to work more R graphics into my future articles and will keep using it for analysis.

Getting to the point where I think the award picks article could get underway.

 

Once the Jays clinch the east we can do a playoff preview, etc

Definitely! You can just let us know what you need once you're ready. I think I'm going to write an article in the next day about theoretical Cy Young stuff.

[BTS]

R is awesome. The fact that it's free and open source means there are endless packages to be found online and you can use it to do pretty much anything. What sucks is that you'll use it through school, and then have to shift to SAS when you find a job because employers won't let you use R on their computers.

[John_Havok]

K, with the regular season wrapped up, lets get something out for our award predictors.

 

AL and NL MVP, Cy, and ROY - we'll put each award together and release as separate articles for each league.. so just do up a paragraph or two on each award and why you picked who you picked and we'll compile and get sent out.

 

SAmple:

 

"NL Cy Young - Max Scherzer undoubtedly gained a few votes with his second no hitter of the season in his last start, and he joins 3 other names in Clayton Kershaw, Jake Arrieta and Zack Greinke as the top 4 names in my consideration.

 

FIP-based WAR would crown Kershaw the champ, RA9 WAR would give it to Greinke, some blend of the two sees Arrieta on top and Scherzer right there also. I don't think there's really a wrong choice here and each guy could have a case built for them, but my vote goes to Kershaw. Purely and simply, he's a beast and the best pitcher in the game right now that every team in baseball would take if there was a dispersal draft tomorrow. My ballot goes Kershaw, Arrieta, Greinke then Scherzer. "

[NorthOf49]

Alright I'll write these up today if I have time. I'm also going to be releasing a "5 Statistical Themes of the Blue Jays' 2015 Season" article, likely in the afternoon today.

[Laika]

Trout-Harper

Kershaw-Price

Bryant

 

Lindor or Correa? <--- this might be the most fascinating awards discussion.

 

Sadly, Donaldson doesn't have a great case against Trout anymore (even if Donaldson is still the BBWAA favourite to win AL MVP, which he probably is)

 

Price vs Keuchel is interesting I guess, but for some reason it doesn't intrigue me. I guess I don't love Keuchel.

 

The NL CY race is just annoying. Kershaw should be the slam dunk winner with the first 300 K season in 13 years and an 8.6 fWAR / 1.99 FIP, but people are defaulting to Wins and ERA to make it a 3 horse race. Actually most things I've seen on twitter have it going to Greinke for the freakishly (flukily) low ERA or Arrieta for the win total + second half dominance + also freakishly (flukily) low ERA.

[BTS]

Kershaw is going to get snubbed for sure.

[John_Havok]

Trout-Harper

Kershaw-Price

Bryant

 

Lindor or Correa? <--- this might be the most fascinating awards discussion.

 

Sadly, Donaldson doesn't have a great case against Trout anymore (even if Donaldson is still the BBWAA favourite to win AL MVP, which he probably is)

 

Price vs Keuchel is interesting I guess, but for some reason it doesn't intrigue me. I guess I don't love Keuchel.

 

The NL CY race is just annoying. Kershaw should be the slam dunk winner with the first 300 K season in 13 years and an 8.6 fWAR / 1.99 FIP, but people are defaulting to Wins and ERA to make it a 3 horse race. Actually most things I've seen on twitter have it going to Greinke for the freakishly (flukily) low ERA or Arrieta for the win total + second half dominance + also freakishly (flukily) low ERA.

 

My AL pick is Sale, but I'm a weirdo.

[NorthOf49]

Alright I posted this: http://www.breakingblue.ca/2015/10/06/three-interesting-statistical-themes-of-the-blue-jays-2015-season/

 

I'll try to do my awards picks and short paragraphs later in the afternoon. I (obviously) already know who I'm picking.

[KingKat]

Alright I posted this: http://www.breakingblue.ca/2015/10/06/three-interesting-statistical-themes-of-the-blue-jays-2015-season/

 

I'll try to do my awards picks and short paragraphs later in the afternoon. I (obviously) already know who I'm picking.

 

I think the following paragraph might need some work. Doesn't really make sense to me:

 

The y-axis is the number of runs for which baserunning and fielding runs (includes the positional adjustment) exceeds batting runs. For most seasons, this is negative. Players can derive a ton of value from their bat. But, there are many positive seasons, led by Coco Crisp’s 2007. Kevin Pillar is also near the very top. He is having a productive season and it’s interesting to see how central baserunning and fielding value are to that fact.

[GD]

It just means "how much did a player's baserunning, fielding and positional runs exceed his batting runs by."

[KingKat]

It just means "how much did a player's baserunning, fielding and positional runs exceed his batting runs by."

 

Yeah but this part specifically seems to be missing something:

 

Players can derive a ton of value from their bat. But, there are many positive seasons, led by Coco Crisp’s 2007.

 

 

[GD]

Yeah but this part specifically seems to be missing something:

 

Players can derive a ton of value from their bat. But, there are many positive seasons, led by Coco Crisp’s 2007.

 

 

 

He's referring to the datapoints but it could be worded better. "But, there are many examples in which players have outweighed the contributions made by their bat through other ways, as evidenced by.." Might be a better way of wording it, albeit lengthier.

[NorthOf49]

Thanks KK, I did some cleanup on those sentences and then posted the article to reddit:

 

You can upvote it if you have an account

 

I'll post my award picks soon. GD and KK, you can do the same if you're up for it. Maybe we could do world series picks too? We could go with a grid of awards/WS picks and then a few paragraphs explaining the picks.

[NorthOf49]

AL MVP: Josh Donaldson

 

Donaldson leads the American League in context-based offensive statistics like RE24 and WPA, and exceeded his primary opponent, Mike Trout, in defensive value according to UZR and DRS. His context-free aggregate stats (e.g. wRC+, WAR) are comparable to Trout and the other league leaders and he exceeded the values of those other players when considering context. Donaldson will win the award and some will brand that as a function of his team making the playoffs, but I really do believe that he was more valuable to the Blue Jays than Trout was to the Angels in 2015.

 

NL MVP: Bryce Harper

 

What is there to say? Harper had a season for the ages, no matter whether situational context is considered. Anthony Rizzo led the National League in WPA, piling up over a win more than Harper, but to me that's not enough to exceed the total value provided by Harper's great season. WPA is a good stat that tells a story but it can devalue important run-scoring activity that occurs early in games. Harper's production with runners on base (wRC+ of 195) and in scoring position (163) were great, fueling that outstanding 79.31 RE24 runs total.

 

AL Cy Young: Chris Sale

 

I explained my thoughts on this race here: http://www.breakingblue.ca/2015/09/29/chris-sale-and-a-different-way-to-look-at-the-al-cy-young-race/ . I believe that Chris Sale is the league's best pitcher.

 

NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw

 

By similar reasoning, I believe that Kershaw is clearly the National League's best pitcher. He is having an absolutely monstrous season. Arrieta and Greinke really only have ERA arguments over Kershaw, and I don't put a lot of stock in those arguments when it comes to determining the best pitcher.

 

AL Manager of the Year: Kevin Cash

 

I was really impressed by Cash this season, including how he frequently pulled pitchers after the second time through the order. He seems to get along with the players and have a good handle on soft skills too.

 

NL Manager of the Year: Bruce Bochy

 

It's crazy that Bochy hasn't won this award with the Giants yet! He's proven year after year that he's a great manager.

 

AL Rookie of the Year: Francisco Lindor

 

Lindor piled up a ton of value and was the most outstanding rookie in the AL this season.

 

NL Rookie of the Year: Kris Bryant

 

There's not much debate here. Bryant is even a fringe candidate for MVP.

 

 

World Series: Dodgers over Blue Jays

[John_Havok]

Anyone else for the awards? Would like more than 2 of us.

[Laika]

AL MVP: Josh Donaldson

 

Donaldson and Trout are so close in Fangraphs' "dashboard" sabermetric stats. The AL is lucky to have three super close awards races this year in the MVP, ROY, and Cy Young.

The facts that Trout ended up edging Donaldson in WAR by 0.3 wins and batting average by a hair aren't enough to overcome Donaldson's leads in context dependent stats (RE24, WPA), certain traditional stats (RBI, Runs), and the MLB standings. Donaldson also has the narrative on his side since he was traded to Toronto in the offseason and he can be viewed as the single biggest reason that Toronto is finally in the playoffs again. I think Donaldson will win the AL MVP and I think it will be justified. At this rate, we might look back at Trout's 20 year career some day and wonder why he *only* won like, 7 MVP awards.

 

NL MVP: Bryce Harper

 

See the write-ups above. Nothing more for me to add here. It should be unanimous.

 

AL Cy Young: David Price

 

Price edged Keuchel in fWAR, K rate, ERA, and FIP. Kuechel had 2 more wins than price, a better xFIP, and 12 more innings. Both teams made the playoffs. This is a dead heat.

Chris Sale had the best FIP, xFIP, and K rate in the AL. He was probably the league's best full season SP in terms of talent alone. This is a three way dead heat!

I think Price's ERA crown will be significant to voters, as will the fact that he switched teams mid-season and lead a division champion team's rotation into the playoffs. I don't think Keuchel deserves any significant credit for the IP and W gap, considering part of that comes from the luxury Toronto had to skip Price's final start of the season. Unlike Spencer, I think there is some room in the Cy Young discussion for ERA and Price's gap on Sale is much larger than Arrieta or Greinke's gap on Kershaw. I think the voters will pick Price, so I'm picking Price.

 

Kershaw was easily the best pitcher in the NL this year. He had a FIP under 2.00 and he K'd over 300 batters! It's a crying shame that win totals and a couple of slightly fluky ERA seasons from two other very good pitchers could actually have him 3rd in Cy Young voting behind Arrieta and Greinke.

 

AL Manager of the Year: John Gibbons

 

Gibbons was exactly what the star-studded 2015 Blue Jays needed at the helm. His laid back demeanor helped the team stay cool when they hit rough patches, struggled on the mound, and found themselves at .500 after ~100 games. Then, his hands off managing style gave plenty of room for his star players to lead and ostensibly create a great clubhouse atmosphere. Throughout it all Gibbons' bullpen management was very good and his tactical decisions (like pinch running Pompey late in the season) seemed to pay off more often than not. Gibby the best.

 

NL Manager of the Year: Bruce Bochy

 

See what Spencer wrote. Alternate choice - Mike Matheny, because the Cardinals win lots of games and he is their manager.

 

AL Rookie of the Year: Carlos Correa

 

Correa came second to Lindor in fWAR. Both rookie shortstops played 99 games and succeeded offensively, but UZR likes Lindor's defense more. I don't think 99 games worth of UZR should be the deciding factor here. Carlos Correa is a destined superstar - the potential reincarnation of Alex Rodriguez. He hit more dingers, and his team made the playoffs. I love Lindor, and he's a future star as well (even if his bat isn't this good), but Correa is sexier and he's my ROY.

 

NL Rookie of the Year: Kris Bryant

 

See above. No debate.

 

World Series: Rangers over Cubs for no particular reason.

[KingKat]

AL MVP: Josh Donaldson

 

This is probably Jays’ fan bias speaking but I feel that Donaldson was the story of the season. The fact that someone of his calibre was even traded was a huge story in and of itself but then he went to prove emphatically that there was really absolutely no reason for it to happen, delivering a MVP calibre season and leading the Jays to their first post-season berth. Not everyone agrees about the purpose of this award and how much stats should factor into the decision but this race is a statistical dead heat anyways so you practically have to consider other factors.

 

 

NL MVP: Bryce Harper

 

Prospects, as a general rule, do much less of their development in the majors than they used to but that doesn't mean that all prospects arrive fully formed. Yes Harper was good enough to be an above average major leaguer at 19 but that doesn't mean that he had fully arrived just yet. Harper just made anyone who thought differently look incredibly foolish adding a whopping 255 points of OPS to his career high and serving notice that he's know the game's premium hitter.

 

 

AL Cy Young: Chris Sale

 

These days we have so many advanced performance metrics that it seems ridiculous to use a voting process to determine the best performances so I feel like the awards really have no choice but to consider good narrative lest they become completely obsolete by merely repeating what we already know. For this reason, I was tempted to go Keuchel for his breakout season but upon further inspection that breakout is a bit of a false narrative (he was really good last year too!). Chris Sale's season on the other hand is pretty historically significant for one that's somewhat under the radar. Chris Sale's 11.8 K9 (6.52 K/BB) season would be elite coming from a reliever but Sale just did it from the rotation. That's enough to just crack the top 10 starters K/9s of all time and puts him in a leaderboard that's 60% populated by Randy Johnson's peek season. Elite company to say the least.

 

NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw

 

Improbably, Clayton may have set the bar even higher for himself in 2015. Much like Sale, Kershaw put up the kind of numbers that you just don't expect pitchers not named Randy Johnson to put up.

 

 

AL Manager of the Year: A.J. Hinch

 

This is such an impossible award. Though I don't want to rely 100% on stats when determining the other awards, it does help to narrow the debate a bit. With the managers, it's all guess work. I'll go with Hinch for two reasons, I like that he's not as rigid as some others managers when it comes to bullpen assignments and I'll give him some credit for winning with a young (albeit very talented) team.

 

NL Manager of the Year: Joe Maddon

 

I'll probably always give it Joe Maddon when given an opportunity to do so. I love someone who has shows openness to new ideas and I love someone who makes being bespectacled and silver-haired look cool.

 

AL Rookie of the Year: Carlos Correa

 

When faced with multiple worthy candidates, I prefer for the player who I expect to have the best career and to be rewarded and that would be Correa who I think will be the franchise over in Houston.

 

NL Rookie of the Year: Noah Syndergaard

 

I guess I'm being a big contrarian here by not going with Bryant but in a season dominated by beastly rookie performances, no one seems more beastly to me than Syndergaard and since comparing hitters to pitchers is apples and oranges anyways, I'll just go with who, my gut tells me, will be the best player for years to come.

 

World Series: Blue Jays over Mets

Edited October 8, 2015 by KingKat

[John_Havok]

I'll put the first one up tomorrow since it's the first day of the playoffs for the Jays and follow with another one each day.

 

If anyone else wants to get in before it goes up or chime in on a an award or two after the first few go up, no problem just post it here and I'll get it done.

[KingKat]

I'll put the first one up tomorrow since it's the first day of the playoffs for the Jays and follow with another one each day.

 

If anyone else wants to get in before it goes up or chime in on a an award or two after the first few go up, no problem just post it here and I'll get it done.

 

I edited mine to include the World Series (not that I care much for predicting what will happen in a short series).

[KingKat]

I'll put the first one up tomorrow since it's the first day of the playoffs for the Jays and follow with another one each day.

 

If anyone else wants to get in before it goes up or chime in on a an award or two after the first few go up, no problem just post it here and I'll get it done.

 

I liked North's suggestion of doing it as a grid followed by the explanations.

[John_Havok]

Oh yeah, one more thing, what are KingKats and NJH's writing names... it's been so long they've slipped my old brain.

 

I know North is SPencer... NJH is ... Nikolai?

[NorthOf49]

Oh yeah, one more thing, what are KingKats and NJH's writing names... it's been so long they've slipped my old brain.

 

I know North is SPencer... NJH is ... Nikolai?

KingKat's writing (and real) name is Andre Godin.

NJH's writing name is Nikolai Ballevski.

[John_Havok]

ty sir

 

The first 2 are ready for a quick read/check.

 

No, none of us have award ballots and never will, but we all have an opinion and that's what the internet is for! Over the next week we'll deliver each of our writers' picks for the top MLB awards; MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year for both the American League and National League. First, the NL Cy Young.

 

John Havok - Clayton Kershaw

 

Max Scherzer undoubtedly gained a few votes with his second no hitter of the season in his last start, and but his overall season just doesn't stack up to Clayton Kershaw, Jake Arrieta and Zack Greinke as the top names for me. Looking at WAR (its not perfect, I get it. But when there's 3 guys head and shoulders above other candidates, it's pretty telling). FIP-based WAR would crown Kershaw the champ, RA9 WAR would give it to Greinke, and a 50/50 blend of the two sees Arrieta on top with Kershaw right behind. I don't think there's really a wrong choice here and each guy could have a case built for them, depending on how much weight you give to ERA, sequencing and batted ball "luck", but my vote goes to Kershaw. Purely and simply, he's a beast and the best pitcher in the game right now that every team in baseball would take if there was a dispersal draft tomorrow if cost wasn't an issue. 300 Ks don't grow on trees.

 

Spencer Estey - Clayton Kershaw

 

I believe that Kershaw is clearly the National League's best pitcher. He had an absolutely monstrous season. Arrieta and Greinke really only have ERA arguments over Kershaw, and I don't put a lot of stock in those arguments when it comes to determining the best pitcher.

 

Nikolai Ballevski - Clayton Kershaw

 

Kershaw was easily the best pitcher in the NL this year. He had a FIP under 2.00 and he K'd over 300 batters! It's a crying shame that win totals and a couple of slightly fluky ERA seasons from two other very good pitchers could actually have him 3rd in Cy Young voting behind Arrieta and Greinke.

 

Andre Godin - Clayton Kershaw

 

Improbably, Clayton may have set the bar even higher for himself in 2015 over his 2014 season. Kershaw put up the kind of numbers that you just don't expect pitchers not named Randy Johnson to put up.

Edited October 8, 2015 by John_Havok

[John_Havok]

Yesterday, we gave our hypothetical ballots for the NL Cy Young award. Today we shift to the American League.

 

John Havok - Chris Sale. I can hear your heads exploding.

 

Keuchel will get a lot of support from the camp who values 20 wins, a very low ERA and being on a team going to the playoffs. His ground ball numbers and weak contact rate are league leaders. David Price is in that same camp about wins and playoffs with his 18-5 record leading the AL East champs, strikes out more hitters than Keuchel. That's not to say that they also don't have great reasons to vote for them other than that, because they do, but that's the argument you'll hear from all the talking heads on TV. Chris Sale probably wont even be an afterthought for many, but realistically a very compelling case can be made for him. Sale had the highest K rate, tied for second lowest walk rate and just happened to play on a garbage team to weigh his W/L record down which will eliminate him from a lot of dinosaur ballots, but that's just not right. Chris Sale struck out almost 3 batters more per 9 innings than Price, and his walk rate was better too. He was the most dominant pitcher in the American League and he gets my top vote, followed by Price and Keuchel.

 

Spencer Estey - Chris Sale

 

I explained my thoughts on this race here: http://www.breakingblue.ca/2015/09/2...cy-young-race/ . I believe that Chris Sale is the league's best pitcher.

 

Nikolai Ballevski - David Price

 

Price edged Keuchel in fWAR, K rate, ERA, and FIP. Kuechel had 2 more wins than price, a better xFIP, and 12 more innings. Both teams made the playoffs. This is a dead heat.

Chris Sale had the best FIP, xFIP, and K rate in the AL. He was probably the league's best full season SP in terms of talent alone. This is a three way dead heat!

I think Price's ERA crown will be significant to voters, as will the fact that he switched teams mid-season and lead a division champion team's rotation into the playoffs. I don't think Keuchel deserves any significant credit for the IP and W gap, considering part of that comes from the luxury Toronto had to skip Price's final start of the season. Unlike Spencer, I think there is some room in the Cy Young discussion for ERA and Price's gap on Sale is much larger than Arrieta or Greinke's gap on Kershaw. I think the voters will pick Price, so I'm picking Price.

 

Andre Godin - Chris Sale

 

These days we have so many advanced performance metrics that it seems ridiculous to use a voting process to determine the best performances so I feel like the awards really have no choice but to consider good narrative lest they become completely obsolete by merely repeating what we already know. For this reason, I was tempted to go Keuchel for his breakout season but upon further inspection that breakout is a bit of a false narrative (he was really good last year too!). Chris Sale's season on the other hand is pretty historically significant for one that's somewhat under the radar. Chris Sale's 11.8 K9 (6.52 K/BB) season would be elite coming from a reliever but Sale just did it from the rotation. That's enough to just crack the top 10 starters K/9s of all time and puts him in a leaderboard that's 60% populated by Randy Johnson's peek season. Elite company to say the least.

[John_Havok]

I've already caught some minor grammar issues and corrected them but may have missed some.

[KingKat]

I've already caught some minor grammar issues and corrected them but may have missed some.

 

If you can get the diacritic in my name, I would appreciate it. You can just cut and paste it from here: André Godin.

[NorthOf49]

Dave Cameron just tweeted a link to the Dickey Effect. The Fangraphs article version though lol

[KingKat]

Dave Cameron just tweeted a link to the Dickey Effect. The Fangraphs article version though lol

 

Well that figures being the Fangraphs guy and all.