Colabello Countdown

[Caper]

It's been a long time we've been saying his bubble is about to burst. Yet all he does is keep hitting.

[Mac Outlaw]

It's been a long time we've been saying his bubble is about to burst. Yet all he does is keep hitting.

 

Ain't that the truth. It can't last, regression to the mean, he's not that good.... Yeah, maybe it's all true, but don't criticize a player for something that hasn't even happened yet.

 

The man has flat out hit all year. Results and Production are hell of a nice things to have on a baseball diamond.

[KingKat]

Ain't that the truth. It can't last, regression to the mean, he's not that good.... Yeah, maybe it's all true, but don't criticize a player for something that hasn't even happened yet.

 

The man has flat out hit all year. Results and Production are hell of a nice things to have on a baseball diamond.

 

It's not really the player they're criticizing.

[Mac Outlaw]

It's not really the player they're criticizing.

 

So what are they criticizing? His high BABIP? His stats? Or some of his stats, because they surely couldn't criticize his OPS?

[KingKat]

So what are they criticizing? His high BABIP? His stats? Or some of his stats, because they surely couldn't criticize his OPS?

 

In essence, they're criticizing you.

[Mac Outlaw]

In essence, they're criticizing you.

 

How's that? I'm not following here.

[GD]

How's that? I'm not following here.

 

For expecting him to continue such an elite level of performance when there are red flags. We're just trying to objectively assess his performance and are always trying to support the decision we genuinely feel is best for the team.

 

I like Bello. I hope he can continue hitting like this, he's a lot of fun to watch lol. He's like Hunter Pence lite out there with his awkwardness.

[Mac Outlaw]

For expecting him to continue such an elite level of performance when there are red flags. We're just trying to objectively assess his performance and are always trying to support the decision we genuinely feel is best for the team.

 

I like Bello. I hope he can continue hitting like this, he's a lot of fun to watch lol. He's like Hunter Pence lite out there with his awkwardness.

 

I understand what the predictive stats say, I get it. It's not difficult to grasp.

 

My view is that until things start going backwards, I'm going to roll with the guy who is OPS'ing .890, or whatever it is.

 

Others obviously place more emphasis on what they think should have happened, not what actually did happen. I don't think that's fair to Cola though, nor do I think that's the way playing time should be decided. It's not exactly a small sample size anymore.

 

We can go back and forth on this all day, I quote his OPS, you quote his BABIP or lack of a proven track record and ultimately it's all just words on a message board.

 

I just hope he keeps raking.

[KingKat]

I think it's pretty fair to say the bat's legit now. Not "always going to be this good" good but a decent bat. I don't think there's any reason to be overly concerned with his playing time.

[Mac Outlaw]

In essence, they're criticizing you.

 

A criticism of me is a criticism of Colabello, no two ways around it.

[KingKat]

A criticism of me is a criticism of Colabello, no two ways around it.

 

lol. Take it easy guy. I think the difference of opinion on Colabello is diminishing anyways. As new evidence emerges the case for Colabello the hitter gets stronger. The fact that he's a 1B only player will always somewhat limit his value but I agree with you that's it's not really an immediate concern, more a question for the future. He's definitely getting it done as a platoon 1B and probably won't kill the team if and when he regresses.

[IronLadle]

I wish we would stop seeing a high BABIP as a bad thing. A high BABIP means a hitter is making good contact a putting the ball hard into play - obviously .400 is unsustainable but .310 to .350 isn't out of the question.

 

Miggy's is .415 Goldschimdt is .385

[Mac Outlaw]

lol. Take it easy guy. I think the difference of opinion on Colabello is diminishing anyways. As new evidence emerges the case for Colabello the hitter gets stronger. The fact that he's a 1B only player will always somewhat limit his value but I agree with you that's it's not really an immediate concern, more a question for the future. He's definitely getting it done as a platoon 1B and probably won't kill the team if and when he regresses.

 

Colabello getting some love, alright alright.....

[KingKat]

I wish we would stop seeing a high BABIP as a bad thing. A high BABIP means a hitter is making good contact a putting the ball hard into play - obviously .400 is unsustainable but .310 to .350 isn't out of the question.

 

Miggy's is .415 Goldschimdt is .385

 

Yes high and unsustainable are difference concepts. Every hitter's true talent BABIP is different. xBABIP should, in theory, give you an idea of where that lies but I don't really know if it's all that reliable. At this point, batted ball data doesn't necessarily add as much clarity as one might hope for.

[IronLadle]

Yes high and unsustainable are difference concepts. Every hitter's true talent BABIP is different. xBABIP should, in theory, give you an idea of where that lies but I don't really know if it's all that reliable. At this point, batted ball data doesn't necessarily add as much clarity as one might hope for.

 

Players who consistently make hard contact will generally have higher BABIP than players who make weak contact. The exception being players with speed who can beat out soft infield stuff.

[Captain Adama]

Players who consistently make hard contact will generally have higher BABIP than players who make weak contact. The exception being players with speed who can beat out soft infield stuff.

 

Yes and xBABIP takes those factors into account, which is why Colabello's is in the .370 range, still not .410 but regardless, a .285 .340 guy with a .190 ISO is a pretty good bat to have.

[GD]

I understand what the predictive stats say, I get it. It's not difficult to grasp.

 

My view is that until things start going backwards, I'm going to roll with the guy who is OPS'ing .890, or whatever it is.

 

Others obviously place more emphasis on what they think should have happened, not what actually did happen. I don't think that's fair to Cola though, nor do I think that's the way playing time should be decided. It's not exactly a small sample size anymore.

 

We can go back and forth on this all day, I quote his OPS, you quote his BABIP or lack of a proven track record and ultimately it's all just words on a message board.

 

I just hope he keeps raking.

 

Sign me up for option C: What I believe is most likely to happen in the future. and yes, it is still SSS.

 

I hope he keeps raking too, man.

 

I think it's pretty fair to say the bat's legit now. Not "always going to be this good" good but a decent bat. I don't think there's any reason to be overly concerned with his playing time.

 

He's not Jose Bautista but I believe he's a very good bat.

[GD]

Cola is already well past the stabilization point for HR, BB, and Ks... so you can prob say he's good for the following over 600 PA:

 

25'ish HR

40'ish BB

160'ish SO

 

Jury is still out on his AVG but I'll take the rest.

 

Over his career he has 123 FB of HR/FB%, and the rate is 50, so we can assume that's legit, but BABIP takes 820 BIP and he's nowhere near that.

[L54]

League Average Hard Hit %: 28.6%

 

Paul Goldschmidt: 39.9%

Miguel Cabrera: 40.5%

Chris Colabello: 31.7%

 

Justin Smoak: 36.2 %

 

2015 Average Exit Velocity (>100 AB's):

 

Paul Goldschmidt: 93.32 mph (8)

Miguel Cabrera: 94.04 mph (2)

Chris Colabello: 91.03 mph (51)

 

Justin Smoak: 92.15 mph (25)

[GD]

League Average Hard Hit %: 28.6%

 

Paul Goldschmidt: 39.9%

Miguel Cabrera: 40.5%

Chris Colabello: 31.7%

 

Justin Smoak: 36.2 %

 

2015 Average Exit Velocity (>100 AB's):

 

Paul Goldschmidt: 93.32 mph (8)

Miguel Cabrera: 94.04 mph (2)

Chris Colabello: 91.03 mph (51)

 

Justin Smoak: 92.15 mph (25)

 

Remember, BIS' batted ball data isn't useful for predicting BABIP, if that's what you're trying to do.

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/offensive-batted-ball-statistics-and-their-optimal-uses/

So how can we use the BIS contact data?

 

• Not for BABIP. This is seriously the wrong data to use if so-and-so has a low BABIP. Don’t say, “But he’s making hard contact (Hard%).” These stats do so very little to predict BABIP—in part because “hard contact” can be deep fly balls, and fly balls have the worst BABIP of all non-infield-pop-ups. And typically, weak or medium contact results in ground balls, and those have a higher BABIP. But ground balls can be hit hard too. Just stay away from BABIP with these stats.
  

 

 

 

• For ISO and SLG variations. Is your team’s prized slugger no longer lashing doubles and homers? Check the BIS data. Major fluctuations there might indicate he’s declining. Otherwise, give it some time.
  

 

 

 

• And to a degree, wRC+ variations. But a lot goes into a total-offense metric like wRC+. I’d be more inclined to look at a contact rate than a contact strength measurement. Contact is a clearly delineated event. Contact strength has a lot of noise. But in bigger samples, it can be useful. For instance: Nobody has even hit below 100 wRC+ when his Hard% is 35.5 percent or higher. In fact, very few hitters over 33 percent have been bad hitters—as a group, they average a 121 wRC+.
  

 

Exit velo is more useful, but honestly there isn't a ton of use with these shiny new toys.

[L54]

Cool GD, thanks. My approach was obviously off and I learned something new tonight.

[Spanky99]

Babip isn't entirely luck guys. Then if its the case Ted Williams had a lottery esque luck during his career

 

Collabello in the same regards to Ted "f***ing" Williams? Bwahahahaha......don't forget about Ruth while your at it.

[Spanky99]

It's not really the player they're criticizing.

 

Bingo!

[GD]

Cool GD, thanks. My approach was obviously off and I learned something new tonight.

 

Not just you, basically everyone has been misusing these stats. I have a feeling they'll be a lot more useful as the accuracy increases, but the hard/med/soft are really inaccurate right now.

[93 Jays]

My only problem with Chris is his defense. He's amongst the worst I've ever seen and that makes him a complete liability in the argument for increased playing time.

 

On the other hand, his bat has been far above average and there isn't a number you could begin to suggest to convince me otherwise. In limited playing time, he has come through quite a few times with game winning hits. But his bat, at best, entitles him as an extremely valuable bat off the bench. He has no value as a backup at any position other than DH

 

The guy has ten game winning RBI this season and the MLB leader only has 15 and Donaldson is one of those. Tied with names like Adam Jones, Chris Davis, Kendrys Morales, Bryce Harper. Not comparing him to any of these guys in any way but one. He's been clutch and if his defensive WAR wasn't so pathetic, he's actually a decent player based on his offensive numbers.

 

http://www.sportingcharts.com/mlb/stats/player-game-winning-rbis/2015/

Edited August 26, 2015 by 93 Jays

[G-Snarls]

Good dsiscussion

 

I learned some stuff too

 

He's a great bench/backup option

 

At the same time I just don't see them keeping all of EE, Smoak and Cola next year. Not enough versatility even though they can all hit.

[93 Jays]

A few other interesting stats as well. Out of the top 40 hitters in this category, he's the ONLY player with less than 300 AB'S and look at the names surrounding him. An impressive list. Most guys have 450 Ab's.

 

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/stats?season=2015&category=BATTING+II&group=1&sort=12&time=0&pos=0&team=0&qual=1&splitType=0

[Brenner]

True

 

False

 

Or none of the above

[Krylian]

Chris Colabello is a better hitter than Jose Bautista, dicuss.

 

What's to discuss. Seems legit.

[CrackerJack]

What's the debate about here?

Nobody thinks Colabello is an all star or even an every day player ...

And nobody thinks Cola's BAPIP will continue to hover anywhere close to the Rod Carew stratosphere ... lol

And Gibbons is handling the first base situation pretty much perfectly with Smoak starting against most righties and in there for late inning defence.