Shape of the Blue Jays: Lukes, Dallas, McAdoo

Welcome to Shape of the Blue Jays, my column where I dig into Statcast numbers to analyze recent pitch shape and swing shape trends for Toronto Blue Jays players and discuss how they have impacted their performance. Click here to read the last edition.

Quick Hits: Welcome Back

• Desperate for anyone who can cover innings, the Blue Jays got the recently-DFA'd Simeon Woods Richardson from the Twins for cash considerations earlier this week. The Jays first acquired Woods Richardson from the Mets in the Marcus Stroman trade and later sent him to Minnesota in the José Berríos trade. He was a serviceable back-end starter in 2025, but 2026 has been an utter disaster for him so far (7.74 ERA, 5.86 xERA, 5.90 xFIP, 0.4% K-BB).
• SWR returns to the Blue Jays with an over-the-top delivery, a high-carry mid-90s fastball, a mid-to-high 80s splitter, a mid-80s gyro slider, and a show-me two-plane curveball. I wonder if we're going to see Pete Walker and company help him experiment with some things. None of his pitches grade out well according to stuff models, he hasn't missed any bats this year, and his command has faltered lately too. He's only 25, so it's an interesting reclamation project, but opponents are slugging over .600 against the splitter, which he first introduced last year after coming up with a changeup.
• Neither the slider nor the splitter seems to tunnel well with the fastball, and his old changeup had virtually no separation from the heater in the first place. Whether it's a change in arm angle or repertoire, or he can discover a new pitch grip, here's hoping he can get back on track with Toronto because they need healthy pitchers urgently.

Nathan Lukes

The beat goes on for Nathan Lukes, whose late-April momentum was not disrupted by the hamstring pull that sent him to the IL. He's slashing .455/.526/.606 since his return, and he hit his first homer of the season on Wednesday in Atlanta. This season, he has shifted his attack direction a couple degrees toward the pull side and moved a touch farther back in the box, and he's catching the ball just a little farther out front in front of his body. This is having a positive effect on his batted ball profile, as he's trading groundballs for line drives and pulling more, especially in the air.

Nathan Lukes Batted Ball Profile, 2025-26

For a guy with elite bat-to-ball and without threatening bat speed or exit velocities, it's imperative to optimize the distribution of batted balls. Lukes's power numbers should see a slight bump with this series of minor adjustments, which makes his sparkling contact and strikeout rates play up even more. In a season where everybody from the Blue Jays' logjam of lefty-hitting outfielders has struggled to truly rise head-and-shoulders above the pack, Lukes is continuing to get it done.

Chad Dallas

Chad Dallas earned the win in a successful big-league debut during the series finale against the Braves (3.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 2 K, 2 BB). His unique ability to spin the ball was on full display, as 93% of the pitches he threw were cutters, sweepers, and curveballs. The sweeper returned a beautiful 44% swing-and-miss rate, and it was also in the zone more than any of his other pitch types. It averaged 84 mph, 1.8" of drop, and 14.9" of glove-side movement, slightly less cut than we saw with the minor league ball. Still, this combination of drop and glove-side action is hard to find. It's little wonder he threw it 50% of the time to righties.

per Baseball Savant

To lefties, he leaned on the cutter-curveball combination. He struggled with his cutter command, as its 33% zone rate is more typical for secondary pitches with tons of movement, but it did generate plenty of weak contact. Overall, Dallas induced 11 batted balls, only four of which were hard-hit. An outlier movement profile like this might give him a little more margin for error in terms of location, even though he lacks velocity.

Note: The Blue Jays optioned Dallas this afternoon to activate Woods Richardson.

Charles McAdoo

Charles McAdoo is 3-for-11 with two singles and a homer in his first taste of big league action. Baseball America gave McAdoo 55-grade raw power and 50-grade running, but only a 30-grade hit tool, in their preseason report. As I discussed on the Jays Centre podcast, however, he crept up the Jays' prospect rankings after a strong start to the season that saw him sacrifice some power for a more well-rounded offensive profile. This tradeoff isn't always worth it, but for someone like McAdoo, who had substantial swing-and-miss issues in the minors, it seems like the right move.

Charles McAdoo Swing Mechanics, 2026

His combination of average bat speed with a shorter-than-average swing makes for a more explosive bat than bat speed alone might indicate. By closing himself off and letting the ball travel more than most hitters (league-average contact point is about 6" farther out front than this), he gives himself a better chance to make contact (92.3% zone contact so far). It'll make him more prone to grounders, but more than half of his batted balls have been hard-hit. So far, the adjustment has been worth making.

All stats entering June 5, 2026.