Sign Marco Estrada to an extension

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

But is 16 mil really to much money if he can repeat this years performance and get you 14 -16 wins?

 

I Rather Dump Dickey and Use his money on Estrada!!!

[TheHurl]

1/16M is too much money

 

1 year reduces the risk cost by so much though.

[CHRIS]

1 year reduces the risk cost by so much though.

 

I think I would definitely offer him the QO.

 

In some fashion, this team will need to address the innings gap that was filled this year by the combination of Buehrle, Dickey and Estrada. I guess it's likely that Dickey's option will be picked up, but I think they can do worse than 1 more year of Estrada. The timing might actually work out well in terms of being able to see if Osuna (and perhaps also Sanchez, Hendriks?) can make the switch back to the rotation successfully or not. If he/they can, then maybe you don't have to go to Estrada beyond that first year.

 

Obviously there will be a lot of balls in the air, but I think I'd prefer Estrada on a one year term over committing to a multi-year deal, albeit at a lower annual value.

[Farm]

The real question is if you pay 1 year/15.8 million for 2 WAR of starting pitching. If you do, then you give qualifying offers to both Estrada and Buehrle.

 

I think you should do it. Masterson got 1 year/9.5 million last year as a "buy-low" kind of guy after an off year and look what he did (-0.2 fWAR). Brett Anderson got 1 year/10 million as a good peripherals injury risk kind of guy and really worked out, but he still ended up with just 1.7 fWAR.

 

I think giving Buehrle a QO is a (relatively) easy decision to make, so let's focus on Estrada.

 

Yes, Estrada has a scary xFIP, a very low BABIP, as well as a career high LOB%. His peripherals are all trending in the wrong direction. That's actually really scary. But at the same time he threw 180 innings of 3.13 ERA/4.40 FIP ball. 4.40 FIP isn't actually that bad. He's getting older, but his velocity has relatively close to his effective 2012-2013 years (down 0.5-1mph). We also know he has top tier spin rates for both his four seamer and his changeup. And he's pitched really well this year, and especially in these playoffs.

 

I don't see a massive difference between Leake and Estrada, and everyone expects Leake to get paid. At the end of the day, 15.8 million for one year isn't that much in the grand scheme of things. Look at Anibal Sanchez (16.8 million/0.9 WAR), John Danks (15.75 million/1.8 WAR). Matt Cain, C.J. Wilson, and Brandon Mccarthy. Look at their production, their AAV, and then the length of the contracts. There is value in one year contracts, and especially so for the Blue Jays, since Bautista and Encarnacion are on one year contracts next year.

 

If we have too many SPs at the start of the season, trade Estrada for a PTBNL. At the very least, his contract won't be negative value.

[West Texas Forever]

But is 16 mil really to much money if he can repeat this years performance and get you 14 -16 wins?

 

I Rather Dump Dickey and Use his money on Estrada!!!

 

This right here, I know Dickey has been good in the second half but I think a lot of us fans are tired of seeing this magic trick on the mound, the way he s*** the bed in his last start was my last straw, also with Noah and Travis looking like true studs for years to come this trade will always bother me. Let Dickey walk and take that money and sign Estrada instead, at least with Marco you don't have to check the wind currents and weather reports each start to see what kind of s*** show you will get on the mound.

[KingKat]

But is 16 mil really to much money if he can repeat this years performance and get you 14 -16 wins?

 

No it's not but the assumption that he can repeat this year's performance is a tenuous one. The more salient point is that he might not have to be as good to justify the money.

[Dr. Dinger]

If you guys had to choose next between between Dickey or Estrada for the same money, who would you pick? I have a feeling almost everyone would take Estrada at this point, and it may come down to that.

[BigCecil]

I was opposed to a QO (not that it matters) but Estrada has convinced me he is worth it when I look at the rotation next year juxtaposed against the costs in the FA market and the fact that we blew the arms wad with the farm for the run this year. You brace to have to pay Estrada the QO. And you still have to acquire someone else for the front end with Stro. Not sure of the timing on the RA option but that's material.

 

The fact that we get a pick or we have an over market one year deal with him makes it palatable risk wise.

[youngtea]

If you guys had to choose next between between Dickey or Estrada for the same money, who would you pick? I have a feeling almost everyone would take Estrada at this point, and it may come down to that.

 

Estra is 32

Dickey is 40

 

They won't be getting the same money.

[KingKat]

Estra is 32

Dickey is 40

 

They won't be getting the same money.

 

Option year on Dickey is 12 million. Q.O. on Estrada is something around 17. Not it's not the same money but it has nothing to do with the reason you stated.

[Dr. Dinger]

Estra is 32

Dickey is 40

 

They won't be getting the same money.

 

Dickey is locked in at $12M next year, it seems unlikely that Estrada will get much more than that annually.

[Farm]

The issue is roster construction. Sanchez and Osuna are annoying because you want them to be starters but somehow you still have to be prepared for when they fail. But if they fail then you need to give up more of your future for a rental during the trade deadline. But then you have Stroman/Hutch/Sanchez/Osuna. Then what happens to Dickey/Estrada/Buehrle/FA Pitcher?

 

It kind of makes sense to just keep them in the pen at this point, but it just seems like such a massive waste.

[Dr. Dinger]

Option year on Dickey is 12 million. Q.O. on Estrada is something around 17. Not it's not the same money but it has nothing to do with the reason you stated.

 

I can't see how he would turn down a QO that high.

[KingKat]

I can't see how he would turn down a QO that high.

 

You're thinking the Jays can just sign him for less?

[Laika]

The real question is if you pay 1 year/15.8 million for 2 WAR of starting pitching. If you do, then you give qualifying offers to both Estrada and Buehrle.

 

I think you should do it. Masterson got 1 year/9.5 million last year as a "buy-low" kind of guy after an off year and look what he did (-0.2 fWAR). Brett Anderson got 1 year/10 million as a good peripherals injury risk kind of guy and really worked out, but he still ended up with just 1.7 fWAR.

 

I think giving Buehrle a QO is a (relatively) easy decision to make, so let's focus on Estrada.

 

Yes, Estrada has a scary xFIP, a very low BABIP, as well as a career high LOB%. His peripherals are all trending in the wrong direction. That's actually really scary. But at the same time he threw 180 innings of 3.13 ERA/4.40 FIP ball. 4.40 FIP isn't actually that bad. He's getting older, but his velocity has relatively close to his effective 2012-2013 years (down 0.5-1mph). We also know he has top tier spin rates for both his four seamer and his changeup. And he's pitched really well this year, and especially in these playoffs.

 

I don't see a massive difference between Leake and Estrada, and everyone expects Leake to get paid. At the end of the day, 15.8 million for one year isn't that much in the grand scheme of things. Look at Anibal Sanchez (16.8 million/0.9 WAR), John Danks (15.75 million/1.8 WAR). Matt Cain, C.J. Wilson, and Brandon Mccarthy. Look at their production, their AAV, and then the length of the contracts. There is value in one year contracts, and especially so for the Blue Jays, since Bautista and Encarnacion are on one year contracts next year.

 

If we have too many SPs at the start of the season, trade Estrada for a PTBNL. At the very least, his contract won't be negative value.

 

You can't sign and trade in baseball. Teams have to wait until like, mid-June to trade someone who accepts a QO.

 

Evaluating Estrada's true talent is very tricky. Under FIP theory he was a ~2 WAR pitcher this year, but if you believe in his ability to manipulate contact quality and live in the "donut hole" then he might be closer to a ~4 WAR starting pitcher (bWAR 3.6, RA9-WAR 4.5).

 

Estrada hasn't really underperformed his FIP by a large amount in his career. This is basically the only year that he's done it. But, if you look at his pitch mix, through 2013 he was a different pitcher who threw ~20% curveballs. He's cut that in half in 2014/2015 and now he's 60/30/10 in FB/CH/CU frequency. And in 2014 he did underperform his FIP by a little bit.

 

Figuring out exactly what type of contract Marco Estrada is worth is very tricky. Watching him pitch all year makes you think there's a lot going on that FIP ignores, but there isn't a large body of data to support any conclusions on that front.

 

Either way, he's easily worth a QO at this point even if he's just a league average SP.

 

Buehrle I expect to retire right now, after what happened with his shoulder this year and him getting left off the playoff roster. This playoff run might seem like a good way to end his career. We'll see.

[Laika]

Option year on Dickey is 12 million. Q.O. on Estrada is something around 17. Not it's not the same money but it has nothing to do with the reason you stated.

 

I thought the QO this offseason was going to be 15.XX?

[Frenchsoup]

The issue is roster construction. Sanchez and Osuna are annoying because you want them to be starters but somehow you still have to be prepared for when they fail. But if they fail then you need to give up more of your future for a rental during the trade deadline. But then you have Stroman/Hutch/Sanchez/Osuna. Then what happens to Dickey/Estrada/Buehrle/FA Pitcher?

 

It kind of makes sense to just keep them in the pen at this point, but it just seems like such a massive waste.

 

I would just leave both in the BP for next year. Sanchez has to develop a changeup to be a starter and Osunas mechanics are pretty terrible. Stretch them out in spring to help there development but leave them in the pen for the year.

[Laika]

The issue is roster construction. Sanchez and Osuna are annoying because you want them to be starters but somehow you still have to be prepared for when they fail. But if they fail then you need to give up more of your future for a rental during the trade deadline. But then you have Stroman/Hutch/Sanchez/Osuna. Then what happens to Dickey/Estrada/Buehrle/FA Pitcher?

 

It kind of makes sense to just keep them in the pen at this point, but it just seems like such a massive waste.

 

Sanchez has basically proven that he can't start games. You keep him in the pen, hopefully as an effective 2 inning guy who can throw like 80 innings in a season.

 

Osuna you have to give a chance to start, given his arsenal, unless the team doesn't think his mechanics would hold up.

[KingKat]

I thought the QO this offseason was going to be 15.XX?

 

If that's what you think than it's probably right. I don't even know where I got 17.

[Laika]

If that's what you think than it's probably right. I don't even know where I got 17.

 

$15.8 is the number

[Dr. Dinger]

You're thinking the Jays can just sign him for less?

 

Yeah, actually. The way AA gets extensions done, I think we'll resign Estrada for something like 2 years, $20M + a $12M team option for 2018.

[flafson]

If that's what you think than it's probably right. I don't even know where I got 17.

 

I believe they set it at 15.8 this year.

[youngtea]

Yeah, actually. The way AA gets extensions done, I think we'll resign Estrada for something like 2 years, $20M + a $12M team option for 2018.

 

Estrada can get much more in the market. He can get 3-4 year contract easily.

 

I personally don't like the long term contract for Estrada, but it really depends if we resign Price.

[BTS]

QO is 15.8M.

[KingKat]

Yeah, actually. The way AA gets extensions done, I think we'll resign Estrada for something like 2 years, $20M + a $12M team option for 2018.

 

I might prefer to just go with the one year q.o.

[flafson]

Yeah, actually. The way AA gets extensions done, I think we'll resign Estrada for something like 2 years, $20M + a $12M team option for 2018.

 

AA doesn't even know if he's on this team beyond next month...

[Dr. Dinger]

$15.8 is the number

 

Hmmm... that just feels a lot more reasonable than $17M. Considering the draft pick compensation that would be attached, I would probably offer it. That would force any other team to cough up a 1st in addition to forking over probably $30M+, and I'm not sure any teams will do that for him.

[Dr. Dinger]

AA doesn't even know if he's on this team beyond next month...

 

So you think we're going to let the Executive of the Year walk after reaching the ALCS? K...

[Laika]

Hmmm... that just feels a lot more reasonable than $17M. Considering the draft pick compensation that would be attached, I would probably offer it. That would force any other team to cough up a 1st in addition to forking over probably $30M+, and I'm not sure any teams will do that for him.

 

Yeah, if he accepts then so what. Not the worst contract ever.

 

If he declines and it kills his market, then they can sign him to a reasonable 2/3 year deal.

 

If he declines and someone else grabs him - woot woot.

[Dr. Dinger]

Estrada can get much more in the market. He can get 3-4 year contract easily.

 

I personally don't like the long term contract for Estrada, but it really depends if we resign Price.

 

Disagree. Volquez just signed for two years, $16M + a $10M team option, coming off a very similar season.