Davidi: Doubront to 5th starter, Sanchez to closer?

[LTR]

1.63 WHIP, 4.23 BB/9 in those 5 starts. The results have been good in AAA but you need to throw strikes at the MLB level and Norris hasn't shown he can do that consistently.

 

We just need him to be decent. I think he can be. The K's are there. He will at least keep hitters off balance.

[Smokey]

If you have a good run differential, it's likely that you will be a good team. That doesn't mean you don't attempt to improve. You ALWAYS attempt to improve. But that doesn't mean that you resign yourself to saying "our W/L doesn't match our RD right now so we aren't a good team."

 

If a pitcher's ERA is 60 points higher than his FIP, we say that his ERA is likely to get better. What's different about RD?

 

WTF man? Again, no one is saying they aren't a good team. Jimmy boy said they should be leading the AL because of their RD and that simply isn't true.

 

Either way, this team's RD isn't really reflective of their true talent level and it should be taken with a grain of salt. Yes the offense is elite but they're missing a few elite arms that would help them win those close games. They're also constantly making mental errors on defence and the bases and that is not helping the situation. A lot of those problems could be addressed mid season but until then this team isn't a legit contender.

[theblujay]

WTF man? Again, no one is saying they aren't a good team. Jimmy boy said they should be leading the AL because of their RD and that simply isn't true.

 

Either way, this team's RD isn't really reflective of their true talent level and it should be taken with a grain of salt. Yes the offense is elite but they're missing a few elite arms that would help them win those close games. They're also constantly making mental errors on defence and the bases and that is not helping the situation. A lot of those problems could be addressed mid season but until then this team isn't a legit contender.

 

Lol. That's exactly what RD shows, their true talent level

[theblujay]

RD says that so far they've played like a first place team. But they've been unlucky in close games

[Olerud363]

If you have a good run differential, it's likely that you will be a good team. That doesn't mean you don't attempt to improve. You ALWAYS attempt to improve. But that doesn't mean that you resign yourself to saying "our W/L doesn't match our RD right now so we aren't a good team."

 

If a pitcher's ERA is 60 points higher than his FIP, we say that his ERA is likely to get better. What's different about RD?

 

Good teams have a .550 pythagoran for 5-7 years. Some years the luck hits (both regular season and playoffs), some years it doesn't.

 

See "Toronto Blue Jays 85-93"

 

I am sorry for this but if the Jays have a .600 pythagoran this year and don't make the playoffs it is luck.

 

If they don't make the playoffs in the next 5 years it is because they did not design a team to have a multiple year run.

 

If they have a .550 pythagaran for 5 years they will "likely" make playoffs 3/5 years.

[Smokey]

RD says that so far they've played like a first place team. But they've been unlucky in close games

 

http://www.sharegif.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/facepalm-gif-49.gif

[Terminator]

don't have nearly as much success when going up against elite pitchers.

 

They've beaten Scherzer, Tanaka, Kluber and plenty of others I don't have the time to find and mention.

[CHRIS]

If you have a good run differential, it's likely that you will be a good team. That doesn't mean you don't attempt to improve. You ALWAYS attempt to improve. But that doesn't mean that you resign yourself to saying "our W/L doesn't match our RD right now so we aren't a good team."

 

If a pitcher's ERA is 60 points higher than his FIP, we say that his ERA is likely to get better. What's different about RD?

 

I think the main difference between the two (in general) is that with FIP-to-ERA for an individual pitcher, you're isolating, for the most part, a single variable, whereas RD is looking at the 25 man roster which obviously has more moving parts.

 

I would imagine that trying to correct an individual performance so that ERA trends positively toward a FIP value is easier to do than to have a strong RD trend towards a better W/L record.

 

While I think you're correct that having a mediocre W/L record doesn't mean we aren't a good team, I also think that having a good RD doesn't necessarily mean we have a good team; at least good enough from the perspective of contending.

[Olerud363]

RD says that so far they've played like a first place team. But they've been unlucky in close games

 

Here is a statement. I am on the record now.

 

If Jays continue with .600 pythagoran they will make the playoffs.

[ElNik2013]

If you have a good run differential, it's likely that you will be a good team. That doesn't mean you don't attempt to improve. You ALWAYS attempt to improve. But that doesn't mean that you resign yourself to saying "our W/L doesn't match our RD right now so we aren't a good team."

 

If a pitcher's ERA is 60 points higher than his FIP, we say that his ERA is likely to get better. What's different about RD?

 

 

 

Right and several of us were optimistic about the team even when they were 5+ games under .500 based on their RD. As it turns out, their record has been moving in the direction their RD says it should be.

 

 

Should they try to improve? Absolutely, but it's a good team.

[Olerud363]

While I think you're correct that having a mediocre W/L record doesn't mean we aren't a good team, I also think that having a good RD doesn't necessarily mean we have a good team; at least good enough from the perspective of contending.

 

It absolutey means the Jays are a good team. If they have a .600 pythagoran they are a good team.

 

Take all the teams in baseball history with a .600 pythagorean. They are all good teams. Every one of them. I would venture to say that even the ones that didn't contend for some odd reason were very good in a preceeding or proceeding year.

[GD]

Having a good RD means that we've played well and that in most cases our record should reflect that more accurately. If our RD continues to be as strong as it has been, it is likely that the record will improve as such.

 

The Jays' record in one run games can be expected to improve as well. "Unlucky" is the common term but it's a misnomer. It can be expected to regress, especially with the quality of our underrated bullpen, despite some peoples' refusal to admit that it's a good pen.

[DuckDuckGose]

We just need him to be decent. I think he can be. The K's are there. He will at least keep hitters off balance.

 

He's going to have to throw strikes to get MLB hitters out. It's why he wasn't successful in his first time around and there is no reason to believe teh results will be different until he can fix his control issues.

[Olerud363]

Let me say this

 

Tampa Bay has never had a .600 pythagorean. They had .590 twice (2008 and 2010) and made the playoffs, they were very good those years.

 

The New York Yankees have had a .600 pythagorean 4 or so times in the last 20 years. Each year they were 100 win team or close. They have had close to .600 many years in the last couple decades. In recent years their pythagorean has dipped closer to .500. Their teams are mediocre.

 

The baltimore Orioles. One must go back to the Jimmy Carter years to find a .600 pythag. They won 100 games those years.

 

The Boston Red Sox have had .600 pythagoran 3 times the last 15 years. Two of those years they were world series champions. One of those years they won 93 but missed the playoffs. It was tough that year. Bad luck in terms of outcomes (wins) and the fact the wild card was tough that year.

[Olerud363]

Having a good RD means that we've played well and that in most cases our record should reflect that more accurately. If our RD continues to be as strong as it has been, it is likely that the record will improve as such.

 

The Jays' record in one run games can be expected to improve as well. "Unlucky" is the common term but it's a misnomer. It can be expected to regress, especially with the quality of our underrated bullpen, despite some peoples' refusal to admit that it's a good pen.

 

My guess is the Jays play close to their pythagorean the rest of the way.

 

If Travis comes back healthy and the rest of the guys stay healthy the Jays make the playoffs. No question. I am usually very pessimistic but given health this team will do it. No question.

 

Hutch and the shitballers will pitch to 4 or era and that will be enough with the offense. Sanchez will comeback, Stroman will to believe it or not.

[Olerud363]

The road to disaster is Travis can't come back, Ryan Goins is there every day, a bunch of other s***** injuries hit and Pillar tanks.

 

Otherwise everything will be great.

[Smokey]

Any team that out scores the second leading offense in baseball by 64 runs should be considered a "good team" but that doesn't automatically make them a contender. We know that pitching and defence wins championships and this team has two band-aids at the back end of their rotation and the front end is filled with a bunch of mid rotation guys.

 

I don't give a f*** what the run differentials are, this team isn't going anywhere without significant pitching help.

[HERPDERP]

The road to disaster is Travis can't come back, Ryan Goins is there every day, a bunch of other s***** injuries hit and Pillar tanks.

 

Otherwise everything will be great.

Our offense is the least of our problems.

[Olerud363]

Any team that out scores the second leading offense in baseball by 64 runs should be considered a "good team" but that doesn't automatically make them a contender. We know that pitching and defence wins championships and this team has two band-aids at the back end of their rotation and the front end is filled with a bunch of mid rotation guys.

 

I don't give a f*** what the run differentials are, this team isn't going anywhere without significant pitching help.

 

******** -- Twins 87, Jays 93, Cards 2006.

 

Even Giants 2012 did not have great pitching.

 

High offense lower pitching teams can win the world series. Teams can luck into a world series.

 

Teams can luck out of the playoffs.

[RealAccountant]

The pitching is equally as bad in my opinion. We are in bottom five across the board. You can't win with pitching like that

[Deadpool]

Any team that out scores the second leading offense in baseball by 64 runs should be considered a "good team" but that doesn't automatically make them a contender. We know that pitching and defence wins championships and this team has two band-aids at the back end of their rotation and the front end is filled with a bunch of mid rotation guys.

 

I don't give a f*** what the run differentials are, this team isn't going anywhere without significant pitching help.

 

We do? Are we sure that's not just a thing people say because people have always said it?

 

Pitching and Defense Wins, As Long As You Can Also Hit

 

Pitching and defence certainly helps, but if you score 0 runs a game, no amount of pitching or defence will help you.

[Olerud363]

Most playoff teams are in the top half in offense and pitching. But where they are in the top half doesn't matter.

 

It's not like the top pitching team always wins. San Francisco was 7th in pitching last year. 5th in offense. Which is weird. One thinks of them as a pitching team.

 

Adjusted for park Giants are below average in pitching, above average in hitting, they were in 2012 as well.

 

Bumgarner is looked at as a legend... adjusted for park he is above average guy but gets upped to "super stud star" based on being in the right place at right time.

[RealAccountant]

When was the last time a bottom five pitching team made the playoffs

[Smokey]

******** -- Twins 87, Jays 93, Cards 2006.

 

Even Giants 2012 did not have great pitching.

 

High offense lower pitching teams can win the world series. Teams can luck into a world series.

 

Teams can luck out of the playoffs.

 

Wait, are you serious?? The Giants had Cain, Bumgarner and Vogelsong putting up elite numbers that year and they also got close to 200 innings out of Zito and Lincecum. Not to mention having an elite closer in Romo.... That was a clown post bro...

[KingKat]

Here's the thing... Is it fair to assume that the Jays will put up the same pythagorean record going forward? For all we know they've played the best ball they will all season and saddly don't have as much to show for it as they should. You really have to throw that out the window and just evaluate what you have. You can''t just assume the same run differential going forward. Depth issues could catch up to the Jays in a hurry. It really behooves the team to address them.

[dineke]

We do? Are we sure that's not just a thing people say because people have always said it?

 

Pitching and Defense Wins, As Long As You Can Also Hit

 

Pitching and defence certainly helps, but if you score 0 runs a game, no amount of pitching or defence will help you.

 

Yeah it's just some dumb cliche that people say over and over again. Offense is equally as important as pitching/defense.

[Deadpool]

Yeah it's just some dumb cliche that people say over and over again. Offense is equally as important as pitching/defense.

 

I was going to give you a "Thanks" for this, but then I noticed the following:

 

Posts

3,720

Thanks

0

 

It's actually impressive that you managed not to thank anyone while making almost 4000 posts, even by accident you think it would have happened once...

[reedjohnsonfan]

I don't see this info anywhere. It wouldn't be a dumb move though. Doubront was a league average SP as recently as 2013 and 2012, and Sanchez' best role is a relief pitcher anyway.

 

Yep. Going based on memory, he always seemed to be decent but could blow up just like any back end starter.

[jays76]

Wait, are you serious?? The Giants had Cain, Bumgarner and Vogelsong putting up elite numbers that year and they also got close to 200 innings out of Zito and Lincecum. Not to mention having an elite closer in Romo.... That was a clown post bro...

 

Even the other teams he mentioned had better pitching than we do this year. I'm enjoying this thread and some good points are being made on both sides but ultimately if Rogers/AA doesn't spend money and make trades at some point we will not be contenders.

 

If we're taking a run at the playoffs and the world series bold moves will need to be made..

[ElNik2013]

Even the other teams he mentioned had better pitching than we do this year. I'm enjoying this thread and some good points are being made on both sides but ultimately if Rogers/AA doesn't spend money and make trades at some point we will not be contenders.

 

If we're taking a run at the playoffs and the world series bold moves will need to be made..

 

 

They definitely need a better rotation, but I have my reservations on letting AA trade more assets for an elite SP. IMO, what he has traded away should've been enough to fetch a frontline SP, he just got the wrong guys in JJ, Buehrle and Dickey.