General Jays Discussion 2015

[Spanky99]

Link to this interview?

 

Sorry it was after Saturdays game on SN, should be in their video files.

[Spanky99]

Predictions for Rangers series?

 

Calling 2-1 or 1-2. I don't think either team will sweep.

 

Don't go out on a limb or anything?

[Spanky99]

Need to secure the first two if we want a series win. Maybe I'm wrong. Gallardo might be tough. We'll see.

 

You don't say???

 

lol...like the Jays were getting swept in Anaheim?

[RealAccountant]

I'm assuming there would be no Bo Schultz if healthy Stroman depending on how healthy he is and everyone else is

[burlingtonbandit]

I'm assuming there would be no Bo Schultz if healthy Stroman depending on how healthy he is and everyone else is

 

If you mean for playoffs there should be no chance Schultz is on roster. You only need 5 relievers at the most anyway and 4 starters.

[Jimcanuck]

Price, Stroman, Burly, Hutch

 

Osuna, Hawkins, Cecil, Sanchez, Hendriks, Lowe, Estrada

 

Dickey on the bench - late inning defensive whiz

[Mac Outlaw]

Let's just see how Stroman does first before putting him in the playoff rotation.

[flafson]

Let's just see how Stroman does first before putting him in the playoff rotation.

 

His pitches look crisp.

[Mac Outlaw]

He'd have to start two or three games in the major leagues and have success to be put in the playoff rotation, in my opinion.

 

Great that his pitches look crisp, but I want to see results first.

[Krylian]

His pitches look crisp.

 

Like coffee?

[burlingtonbandit]

Price, Stroman, Burly, Hutch

 

Osuna, Hawkins, Cecil, Sanchez, Hendriks, Lowe, Estrada

 

Dickey on the bench - late inning defensive whiz

 

I'd leave Estrada off the roster. He doesn't have value as a reliever and he's not good enough to be a starter.

 

If Dickey pitches well down the stretch and you could line it up the way you want I go:

 

Price Dickey Stroman Buehrle

 

Osuna, Hendriks, Cecil, Sanchez, Hawkins, Lowe

 

Bench Navarro, Goins (If Travis is healthy, if not than Pennington) Collabello, Pompey, Fields, random PH

[Krylian]

But Estrada has been nails.

[BlueBirdBro]

What more does Estrada have to do? He's beating good teams.

[KingKat]

Estrada's skill level hasn't suddenly risen since last year. When things break poorly for him, he's Marco Estrada 2014 version when things break well for him he's Marco Estrada 2015. Either way, he's the same damn pitcher. As ridiculous as it was to write him off in the off season, it's just a ridiculous to consider him a rotation lock now. Marco is a nice guy to have in a pinch and I'm quite happy the Jays acquired him but let's not trick ourselves into thinking he's a guy you want to lean on. He's given up two homeruns in each of his last two starts and that shouldn't surprise anyone because it's basically his homerun rate regressing to career norm. He's a good guy to have but the flyball and homerun tendencies that so many people were worried about in the off-season didn't just get up and leave.

[baloojayz]

I'd leave Estrada off the roster. He doesn't have value as a reliever and he's not good enough to be a starter.

 

If Dickey pitches well down the stretch and you could line it up the way you want I go:

 

Price Dickey Stroman Buehrle

 

LMAO Dickey has been pitching really well after the all-star break, but no way he bumps Estrada. In Estrada we have a guy that is solid enough to keep us in till the offence kicks in which is the strength of the team. When Dickey is ON, he gives up 3 runs. When Dickey is off, its 5-0 in the first inning and he gets pulled with the bases loaded.

 

Estrada's skill level hasn't suddenly risen since last year. When things break poorly for him, he's Marco Estrada 2014 version when things break well for him he's Marco Estrada 2015. Either way, he's the same damn pitcher. As ridiculous as it was to write him off in the off season, it's just a ridiculous to consider him a rotation lock now. Marco is a nice guy to have in a pinch and I'm quite happy the Jays acquired him but let's not trick ourselves into thinking he's a guy you want to lean on. He's given up two homeruns in each of his last two starts and that shouldn't surprise anyone because it's basically his homerun rate regressing to career norm. He's a good guy to have but the flyball and homerun tendencies that so many people were worried about in the off-season didn't just get up and leave.

 

True, but it's not like Stroman is taking Estrada's spot. It's between Estrada and Dickey if Stroman comes back. You could say the same about Dickey's last two years, haven't been spectacular and he gives up his share of homeruns as well.

Not to mention 2 games is a small sample size.

[Followthelight]

I'd leave Estrada off the roster. He doesn't have value as a reliever and he's not good enough to be a starter.

 

If Dickey pitches well down the stretch and you could line it up the way you want I go:

 

Price Dickey Stroman Buehrle

 

Osuna, Hendriks, Cecil, Sanchez, Hawkins, Lowe

 

Bench Navarro, Goins (If Travis is healthy, if not than Pennington) Collabello, Pompey, Fields, random PH

 

You are cracked if you think Estrada will be left off the roster.

[baloojayz]

Estrada's skill level hasn't suddenly risen since last year. When things break poorly for him, he's Marco Estrada 2014 version when things break well for him he's Marco Estrada 2015. Either way, he's the same damn pitcher. As ridiculous as it was to write him off in the off season, it's just a ridiculous to consider him a rotation lock now. Marco is a nice guy to have in a pinch and I'm quite happy the Jays acquired him but let's not trick ourselves into thinking he's a guy you want to lean on. He's given up two homeruns in each of his last two starts and that shouldn't surprise anyone because it's basically his homerun rate regressing to career norm. He's a good guy to have but the flyball and homerun tendencies that so many people were worried about in the off-season didn't just get up and leave.

 

Also Estrada 2014>Dickey 2015

Better walk rate and strikeout rate/9

The only argument you could bring up is the HR rate which was high for him last year, his career is about even with Dickey.

[KingKat]

Also Estrada 2014>Dickey 2015

Better walk rate and strikeout rate/9

The only argument you could bring up is the HR rate which was high for him last year, his career is about even with Dickey.

 

All things being equal, the team will go with Dickey over Estrada. That's just the reasonable expectation to have and it's not something to get worked up about. Argue that they're both bad if you want but some are arguing that a bad pitcher (Dickey) is being unfairly valued over a good one (Estrada) and that's not the case. Both can be bood in stretches. Neither should inspire full confidence.

[Atothe]

I would go dickey over Estrada, the floodgates will open for Estrada sooner rather then later and I don't want that in a playoff series. Plus the Dickey effect

[puphood]

I would go dickey over Estrada, the floodgates will open for Estrada sooner rather then later and I don't want that in a playoff series. Plus the Dickey effect

I don't have much confidence in either but would go with Estrada over Dicky or Hutch as the flood gates already have opened on Dickey the last two games. The bats were the only thing that kept Dickey alive. Hutch's game at Buffalo indicated he has not resolved much and with out bats behind him he is not going to get it done. So Price, Burhle, Estrada and at the moment Dickey.....Stroman is a long shot hopeful and fan favorite..............Rangers next up Go jays hopefully they never left the bats in Anaheim.........

[MunenoriKawasakiMVP]

Can the sabermetrician please stop predicting regressions? Everybody predicted Collabello to go under ,300 average and he's what now? ,330 and our 2nd best consistent hitter behind Donaldson. Estrada is our 3rd best pitcher and he is hitting the corners. Who cares if he gives up sometimes 2 HR in his start? To be solide he has to do 2/3 ER in 6 innings. Trust me you want him in the rotation instead of Dickey of even (sadly) Stroman. And somebody saying that he is the same pitcher is just not watching games. I remember last year when I watched him he hung tons of fastball and changeups right down the middle. Now, his changeup is one of the best in the league and his fastball touches the corners.

[KingKat]

Can the sabermetrician please stop predicting regressions? Everybody predicted Collabello to go under ,300 average and he's what now? ,330 and our 2nd best consistent hitter behind Donaldson. Estrada is our 3rd best pitcher and he is hitting the corners. Who cares if he gives up sometimes 2 HR in his start? To be solide he has to do 2/3 ER in 6 innings. Trust me you want him in the rotation instead of Dickey of even (sadly) Stroman. And somebody saying that he is the same pitcher is just not watching games. I remember last year when I watched him he hung tons of fastball and changeups right down the middle. Now, his changeup is one of the best in the league and his fastball touches the corners.

 

If you give up 2 homeruns and you only give up 2/3 earned runs total, that's being extremely fortunate unless you're not putting any runners on which wasn't the case. This is not a hypothetical regression. His recent starts have been bad but for some reason people seem to be blind to that.

 

Look at the ERA/FIP/XFIP numbers from his last couple of starts.

 

 

[TABLE=width: 482]

[TR]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]ERA[/TD]

[TD]FIP[/TD]

[TD]xFIP[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2015-08-22[/TD]

[TD]TOR[/TD]

[TD]@LAA[/TD]

[TD]4.76[/TD]

[TD]6.30[/TD]

[TD]4.76[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2015-08-15[/TD]

[TD]TOR[/TD]

[TD]NYY[/TD]

[TD]3.00[/TD]

[TD]7.96[/TD]

[TD]6.99[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

 

Now look at the same from Dickey:

 

[TABLE=width: 306]

[TR]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD]ERA[/TD]

[TD]FIP[/TD]

[TD]xFIP[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2015-08-23[/TD]

[TD]TOR[/TD]

[TD]@LAA[/TD]

[TD]7.50[/TD]

[TD]3.79[/TD]

[TD]6.43[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2015-08-18[/TD]

[TD]TOR[/TD]

[TD]@PHI[/TD]

[TD]11.25[/TD]

[TD]6.87[/TD]

[TD]5.79[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

 

By any metric other than ERA, Estrada's last couple of starts have been as bad as Dickey's but because of runs scored, everyone wants to burn Dickey at the stake while turning a blind eye to Estrada's struggles. Given Estrada's track record, given the way he's actually pitching, it makes absolutely no sense to give Estrada a pass here while also worrying about Dickey.

[BTS]

Can the sabermetrician please stop predicting regressions? Everybody predicted Collabello to go under ,300 average and he's what now? ,330 and our 2nd best consistent hitter behind Donaldson. Estrada is our 3rd best pitcher and he is hitting the corners. Who cares if he gives up sometimes 2 HR in his start? To be solide he has to do 2/3 ER in 6 innings. Trust me you want him in the rotation instead of Dickey of even (sadly) Stroman. And somebody saying that he is the same pitcher is just not watching games. I remember last year when I watched him he hung tons of fastball and changeups right down the middle. Now, his changeup is one of the best in the league and his fastball touches the corners.

 

It's so hard to be a fan of a team while simultaneously interacting with new fans that have uninformed but strong opinions. I mean, it should be fun to just ride Colabello's 0.406 BABIP or Estrada's 4.75 xFIP while knowing that they're mirages. But you run into a bunch of "where are all the experts who said Colabello would decline lol sabemetrics please extend Estrada long term he's awesome" posters who have no idea what they're talking abut and it's so hard not to enjoy the regression.

[G-Snarls]

I would go dickey over Estrada, the floodgates will open for Estrada sooner rather then later and I don't want that in a playoff series. Plus the Dickey effect

 

I'd choose Dickey anyway, but you KNOW AA and Gibby will for sure. Cause... he's RA Dickey.

[dineke]

I'd choose Dickey anyway, but you KNOW AA and Gibby will for sure. Cause... he's RA Dickey.

 

Neither because stroman...

[KingKat]

It's so hard to be a fan of a team while simultaneously interacting with new fans that have uninformed but strong opinions.

 

Good thing you're a fan of a different team then.

[BTS]

Good thing you're a fan of a different team then.

 

I think it kind of started with stuff like this. Gustavo Chacin. JPA. Moises Sierra. Eric Thames. I blurred the line between expecting regression and hoping for it, and next thing I know I have a Zobrist jersey and Rays foam finger.

[KingKat]

I'm sure he's already converted (back?) to being a [closet] Blue Jays fan.

 

BTS and I are tight. I was just razzing him.

[ValiantJaysFan]

Jeff Blair's ineptitude in it's full glory today:

 

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blair-rangers-present-real-test-for-blue-jays/?row=1&row_ids=1617493

 

Watch as he reads his information on the fly from his MacBook, stumbling over words, correcting himself as he goes along because he's reading and "analyzing" this information for the very first time, while on the air. Unbelievable. Rogers needs to start holding these guys to way higher standards.

[Governator]

I think it kind of started with stuff like this. Gustavo Chacin. JPA. Moises Sierra. Eric Thames. I blurred the line between expecting regression and hoping for it, and next thing I know I have a Zobrist jersey and Rays foam finger.

 

and you're still their newest fan.