General Jays Discussion 2015

[HERPDERP]

What ballpark is that ang?

[Governator]

What ballpark is that ang?

 

I'm guessing Comerica Park, hard to tell.

[Followthelight]

I don't get the apprehension to sign price to a huge contract, in 2-3 seasons if the jays window closes we can deal price for top notch prospects, someone would always be willing to take on a guy like price at the age of 32-33.

[dineke]

You don't, but if you're arguing over top-end free agents who will all cost you a lot of money, its not hard to conclude that the one that gives your overall rotation a different look makes the most sense.

 

Sure, but their handedness would be at the very bottom of the list of concerns.

[baubau]

I'm guessing Comerica Park, hard to tell.

 

I'd agree. There is a beer can with a tiger's logo. Doubt other teams would sell that. haha

[GD]

You are significantly undervaluing wins for upper echelon teams. Win 90 is worth far more than $10M to the Jays.

 

Again, there are other ways to accomplish this.

[Followthelight]

Does anyone know what was wrong with Buerhle? They mentioned he never felt well so they just wanted to give him extra days rest, was it just cold/flu symtoms?

[HERPDERP]

Does anyone know what was wrong with Buerhle? They mentioned he never felt well so they just wanted to give him extra days rest, was it just cold/flu symtoms?

 

He's old and having old man aches and pains

[DuckDuckGose]

Again, there are other ways to accomplish this.

 

Of course but that doesn't mean they shouldn't resign Price.

[Brownie19]

I don't get the apprehension to sign price to a huge contract, in 2-3 seasons if the jays window closes we can deal price for top notch prospects, someone would always be willing to take on a guy like price at the age of 32-33.

 

You want to trade for Verlander?

[Governator]

Of course but that doesn't mean they shouldn't resign Price.

 

Did you like it when the Jays did jackshit last summer when they were >.500 at the deadline or during the prior offseason for that matter because they had zero money? They actually had players willing to defer money just so they can make a $14MM offer. FYI - you can expect more of that for years to come after signing Price. Sweet

[Followthelight]

You want to trade for Verlander?

 

False Equivalency, Price is not Verlander. There is risk involved in anything, but the chances that price becomes a Verlander are slim. Going another route is just as risky and may not pay off either. There are no guarantees.

[ValiantJaysFan]

If the Dodgers are willing to be so outrageous, why wouldn't they just sign Price this offseason and get the better years included?

 

Because maybe the Jays sign him? Just using the Dodgers as an example, in 4-5 years who knows what team it will be. My point is someone would be willing to take him on if we had to offload him, but who's to say he's going to be ineffective in 5-7 years? There have been pitchers that have been valuable in later years -- Randy Johnson, Nolan Ryan, etc ...not comparing Price to those guys but it's not just a given that he's going to be an albatross.

 

Plus, we don't have many trade chips left and I don't know of better free agent pitchers that going to be available, so when you have a chance to sign an ace you do it.

[SaskJaysFan_2]

You want to trade for Verlander?

 

2011 Verlander? Yes, yes I do.

 

#timemachine

[GD]

False Equivalency, Price is not Verlander. There is risk involved in anything, but the chances that price becomes a Verlander are slim. Going another route is just as risky and may not pay off either. There are no guarantees.

 

Says who, mj?

[HERPDERP]

Playoff Prices from 2014:

http://www.nationalpost.com/m/wp/blog.html?b=news.nationalpost.com//sports/mlb/toronto-blue-jays-announce-prices-for-playoff-tickets-world-series-will-cost-100-to-350

[DuckDuckGose]

Hutch and Stroman are still under contract, Dickey's option will get picked up but that leaves 2 spots to fill. They'll turn to FA for at least one of those spots and likely will move Edwin to fill the other. Hutch + Stro + Dickey will be ~$17.5M if they flipped Edwin for a decent young, cheap starter (or just roll with one of Osuna/Sanchez) and paid Price $30M it'd be less than $50M for a pretty good starting rotation. That's not bad at all and definitely workable with a ~$140M payroll.

[HERPDERP]

Hutch and Stroman are still under contract, Dickey's option will get picked up but that leaves 2 spots to fill. They'll turn to FA for at least one of those spots and likely will move Edwin to fill the other. Hutch + Stro + Dickey will be ~$17.5M if they flipped Edwin for a decent young, cheap starter (or just roll with one of Osuna/Sanchez) and paid Price $30M it'd be less than $50M for a pretty good starting rotation. That's not bad at all and definitely workable with a ~$140M payroll.

 

Gonna have to factor in Donaldson's arbitration salary, which will be huge and probably cut into the pitching budget.

[JaysFanSmith]

I feel the Jays as an organization will only have Price's ear if they Win and have a chance to win moving forward. If they win, expect them to pitch an even 30 Mil at Price and see if he bites.

[Olerud363]

Says who, mj?

 

I will give you another one Roy Halladay. He had his last great season at 34 or so. Dave Stieb 32.

 

A 5 year contract for Roy after age 30 would of been OK. A 10 year would not.

 

So Price for 5 years at 150 may be an OK risk. I think if you did the math on it (average performance of good pitchers in their 30s) you would expect four or five good years.

 

Edit - not saying even 5 years is a good risk... I don't know exactly what the magic number is, just guessing it is about 4 or 5 years.

[DuckDuckGose]

Did you like it when the Jays did jackshit last summer when they were >.500 at the deadline or during the prior offseason for that matter because they had zero money? They actually had players willing to defer money just so they can make a $14MM offer. FYI - you can expect more of that for years to come after signing Price. Sweet

 

I was disappointed but they needed to be smarter about saving payroll space, it had nothing to do with any one contract. Same thing goes with resigning Price -- as long as they are smart about how they spend the rest of their payroll they'll be fine.

[DuckDuckGose]

Gonna have to factor in Donaldson's arbitration salary, which will be huge and probably cut into the pitching budget.

 

They'd need to raise payroll ~$10M, if they do make the playoffs I don't see why payroll wouldn't go up by at least that much.

[DuckDuckGose]

I will give you another one Roy Halladay. He had his last great season at 34 or so. Dave Stieb 32.

 

A 5 year contract for Roy after age 30 would of been OK. A 10 year would not.

 

So Price for 5 years at 150 may be an OK risk. I think if you did the math on it (average performance of good pitchers in their 30s) you would expect four or five good years.

 

Edit - not saying even 5 years is a good risk... I don't know exactly what the magic number is, just guessing it is about 4 or 5 years.

 

There's no sense arguing with him. He;'s convinced pitcher's arms fall off the second they hit 30.

[Daniel Labude]

There's no sense arguing with him. He;'s convinced pitcher's arms fall off the second they hit 30.

 

Cause he doesn't watch baseball just looks at stats.

[KingKat]

I was disappointed but they needed to be smarter about saving payroll space, it had nothing to do with any one contract. Same thing goes with resigning Price -- as long as they are smart about how they spend the rest of their payroll they'll be fine.

 

Well part of the issue is that a chunk of it is already spent on Tulo and Martin, players who might very well make more than their worth by then (which I'm fine with btw but you have to factor that in your planning).

[Olerud363]

There's no sense arguing with him. He;'s convinced pitcher's arms fall off the second they hit 30.

 

??? I'm not really arguing with Gordie or anybody. Just saying that I am sure that if you crunch the numbers it would give you a expected value for Price and Jays shouldn't go over that number. Someone else probably will.

 

As far as I can see that is all Gordie is saying.

 

I have different minds about this depending on the pitcher. The stats guys said a similar thing regarding Sanchez as a starter. But I chirped a bit with them...

 

However being Optimistic about Sanchez doesn't have a huge downside, as long as you don't give him to many starts. Just keep with him for a while... the (very small) upside is Halladay/Carpenter, the downside is a replacement level starter that you can get rid of quickly (or send to the bullpen)

 

With Price the downside of being Optimistic is a couple hundred million dollars.

[DuckDuckGose]

Well part of the issue is that a chunk of it is already spent on Tulo and Martin, players who might very well make more than their worth by then (which I'm fine with btw but you have to factor that in your planning).

 

I just don't view it as a big deal. With the new TV deal I think player salaries are about to skyrocket. I also don't feel that big money deals are as big of an albatross as they used to be. They get moved all the time now.

[KingKat]

I just don't view it as a big deal. With the new TV deal I think player salaries are about to skyrocket. I also don't feel that big money deals are as big of an albatross as they used to be. They get moved all the time now.

 

That's an optimist's view. You're not necessarily wrong but we can't really know what those contracts will be worth in the future. So far, the vast majority of big contracts have returned negative value in their final years. You might want to insulate yourself against that risk especially given the volatily of pitching. That being said since we're speculating about the future, there's no black and white answer. We can't know for sure how Price will age nor how the market will fluctuate.

[GD]

I will give you another one Roy Halladay. He had his last great season at 34 or so. Dave Stieb 32.

 

A 5 year contract for Roy after age 30 would of been OK. A 10 year would not.

 

So Price for 5 years at 150 may be an OK risk. I think if you did the math on it (average performance of good pitchers in their 30s) you would expect four or five good years.

 

Edit - not saying even 5 years is a good risk... I don't know exactly what the magic number is, just guessing it is about 4 or 5 years.

 

Irrelevant though, you don't get Price for 5/150. I'd absolutely do that, but there's no way he signs it.

 

There's no sense arguing with him. He;'s convinced pitcher's arms fall off the second they hit 30.

 

God I hate even trying to debate with you. It always goes the same way. You say something, I argue it, you call me a moron without actually understanding what I'm saying, build a strawman and then be massively condescending about it. Things that generally help a conversation include actually understanding what the other person is saying and avoiding the use of strawmans, but if that's too much to ask from you then I won't bother trying anymore.

[Governator]

Irrelevant though, you don't get Price for 5/150. I'd absolutely do that, but there's no way he signs it.

 

 

 

God I hate even trying to debate with you. It always goes the same way. You say something, I argue it, you call me a moron without actually understanding what I'm saying, build a strawman and then be massively condescending about it. Things that generally help a conversation include actually understanding what the other person is saying and avoiding the use of strawmans, but if that's too much to ask from you then I won't bother trying anymore.

 

This is also why AA & company have pretty much stuck to their 5 yr rule, so they don't cripple the club or any future GM coming in to take over. They'd pay more money for less years because in general you just don't know what you're getting yourself into in the later years and when you're talking $20MM+ in those later years, it makes Romero's wasted money look like couch change.