Aaron Sanchez Reality Check Thread

[BTS]

I personally think Sanchez is not going to be as good as we hope. The K/9 is just not there for a guy with such fantastic stuff and velocity. Maybe he ends up being a Henderson Alvarez type who lives off the ground balls, but to me, Sanchez is at his peak value right now based on what he did last year in relief.

 

I would package him in a deal for Hamels if Rogers would bite the bullet. I wouldn't be willing to package Norris or Pompey in that move though. Not sure what else it would take, but Sanchez would probably provide about half or a little more than half the value required.

 

Heres another one: would you trade injured Stro-show and Sanchez up for Hamels?

 

Absolutely not. Stroman is a complete non-starter for me.

[Orgfiller]

Absolutely not. Stroman is a complete non-starter for me.

 

Interesting choice of words.

[Angrioter]

Sanchez is basically Cosart. I'm fine with that.

[BTS]

Interesting choice of words.

 

Ugh, someone is going to blast me thinking I meant Stroman is a reliever.

[Gorlak]

Knowing that the organization is willing to screw around with Castro, I'd be willing to move both he and Sanchez for Hamels. One is destined to be a reliever (Sanchez), and the other is going to get his development screwed up by the org. Hamels instantly makes the team better.

 

Even as a reliever Castro would still be worth a lot of surplus value.

[BTS]

Not even Stroman for Hamels?

 

I think I would do Stroman for Hamels if Rogers was willing to up the payroll to take on Hamels long term. I wouldnt want to do it if we would have to cut back next year. I think we'd all be ecstatic if Stroman's peak was Hamels. Plus we need to win now...next year might be too late.

 

I respect your opinion if you disagree, I love Stroman too...but...

 

If the payroll space is there I'd rather just have Stroman and someone else a year from now. The FA class is absolutely loaded, and Stroman looks like a 3+ win pitcher in 2016. I don't trust this FO to guide the team to the playoffs in 2015 anyway.

[TRM]

Ugh, someone is going to blast me thinking I meant Stroman is a reliever.

 

Yer dumn

[Gorlak]

Not even Stroman for Hamels?

 

I think I would do Stroman for Hamels if Rogers was willing to up the payroll to take on Hamels long term. I wouldnt want to do it if we would have to cut back next year. I think we'd all be ecstatic if Stroman's peak was Hamels. Plus we need to win now...next year might be too late.

 

I respect your opinion if you disagree, I love Stroman too...but...

 

I wouldn't trade that much talent for a paid player, Just man up and sign a free agent.

[BTS]

Yer dumn

 

Normans shouldn't argue with Normans.

[TRM]

Normans shouldn't argue with Normans.

 

I apologize, I'm in a strange antagonistic place tonight.

[Gorlak]

Easier said than done when it comes to pitchers...

 

Not really if they have the money. If money isn't an issue it would be smarter to keep Stroman and sign Price or Cueto.

[BTS]

Not really if they have the money. If money isn't an issue it would be smarter to keep Stroman and sign Price or Cueto.

 

Price, Cueto, Fister, Greinke (probably), Iwakuma, Kazmir, Kennedy, Latos, Zimmermann, Samardzija, Buehrle, Porcello, Lohse, Colon, Chen are all set yo hit the market in the offseason. Surely the team could nab at least a 2-3 win guy if they're looking to spend.

[GD]

you're assuming I'm just a casual fan who's a dumn dumn who doesn't understand advanced baseball statistics. Old Gordie scoffs at me for me judging a guy off of 30 innings because that would be ridiculous as it's not statistically significant and at the same time references a stat within the same sample size. That's f***ing ironic. His swinging strike percentage could be 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11. What did 30 innings as a reliever tell you what his swinging strike percentage will be as a starter this? Absolutely nothing.

 

Why do I want Sanchez as a starter? I want him as a starter, because with my own 2 eyes, I've seen the ball come out of his hand and I like the way it looked. He's got something special if he can develop. I expect him to have ups and downs this year, but you take changes on kids with superior talent. That doesn't mean the talent always comes to fruition, but I don't for the life of me know how any of you f***ing genius' know what Sanchez is going to be as a player next year or 3 or 5 years from now because it's not that easy to project. You're not as smart as you think you are.

 

Not only do you not really seem to understand that certain stats can have meaning within less sample than others, you also don't seem to follow the notion that no one f***ing knows what Sanchez is going to be, but that doesn't stop us from making an educated guess by using the best knowledge we have, what we can discern from his brief MLB stint (GB%: very good (I think I forget off the top of my head), SwStr: Extremely concerning), his MiLB numbers (horrendous), and the eye test (very good). So, we've got two very good things, the eye test and the GB rate. Problem is, it's unlikely that those two outweigh the SwStr, which is very very very bad in MLB, and pretty meh in MiLB, which is a very important measure, and the rest of his MiLB numbers.

 

TLDR No, we don't know what he'll be, but that isn't any sort of justification for him playing. What we can guess, based off of what has already happened, is that he will not be very good. He could be very good, but our educated guess would be otherwise.

 

Now, I'm going to stop before my jimmies reach full rustle.

 

@oracle gif me missing the forest for the trees

[TRM]

Not only do you not really seem to understand that certain stats can have meaning within less sample than others, you also don't seem to follow the notion that no one f***ing knows what Sanchez is going to be, but that doesn't stop us from making an educated guess by using the best knowledge we have, what we can discern from his brief MLB stint (GB%: very good (I think I forget off the top of my head), SwStr: Extremely concerning), his MiLB numbers (horrendous), and the eye test (very good). So, we've got two very good things, the eye test and the GB rate. Problem is, it's unlikely that those two outweigh the SwStr, which is very very very bad in MLB, and pretty meh in MiLB, which is a very important measure, and the rest of his MiLB numbers.

 

TLDR No, we don't know what he'll be, but that isn't any sort of justification for him playing. What we can guess, based off of what has already happened, is that he will not be very good. He could be very good, but our educated guess would be otherwise.

 

Now, I'm going to stop before my jimmies reach full rustle.

 

@oracle gif me missing the forest for the trees

 

Yer dumn

[King]

Henderson Alvarez had a 7.1% swinging strike percentage last year which was the highest of his career. His swinging strike percentage the year before we traded him was 5.1%. All this damning of aaron Sanchez is ridiculous. Its based off 33 innings. Some of you want to trade him for a new mascot. You hate the fact that people like the blue jays coaching staff are wiling to make qualitative judgements and say the kids got a future drives you stats nerds crazy. 33 innings is not a statically significant sample size to reference his swinging strike percentage, especially when you are talking about a young kid constantly changing and developing. The kid does some special things with the baseball. He either will develop or he won't, but for all you nerds who think you know exactly what Sanchez is and will be are just full of yourselves.

 

you a religious man...lol. If I had a nickel for every time the stats nerds have said, Sanchez projects to be this, or steamer projects Sanchez to be that.....the margin of error for projecting Sanchez insanely high. He could be anywhere from really good to really s*****. That's what you get with young players developing. Not everyone is on the Sanchez hate train, but I'm sick of the doom and gloom. We're still in spring training. We haven't seen any actual results. It's one thing to say you don't think a player is going to be good, but to say he isn't going to be good and anyone who thinks he will be good is dumn. That's just ridiculous, especially when you're talking about a player with quality raw tools.

 

you're assuming I'm just a casual fan who's a dumn dumn who doesn't understand advanced baseball statistics. Old Gordie scoffs at me for me judging a guy off of 30 innings because that would be ridiculous as it's not statistically significant and at the same time references a stat within the same sample size. That's f***ing ironic. His swinging strike percentage could be 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11. What did 30 innings as a reliever tell you what his swinging strike percentage will be as a starter this? Absolutely nothing.

 

Why do I want Sanchez as a starter? I want him as a starter, because with my own 2 eyes, I've seen the ball come out of his hand and I like the way it looked. He's got something special if he can develop. I expect him to have ups and downs this year, but you take changes on kids with superior talent. That doesn't mean the talent always comes to fruition, but I don't for the life of me know how any of you f***ing genius' know what Sanchez is going to be as a player next year or 3 or 5 years from now because it's not that easy to project. You're not as smart as you think you are.

 

I don't give a flying f*** about ERA, because that's not why I like the kid. I like the break on his curveball, the velocity, the movement. You're assuming I'm over the moon and pumped about the kid because he posted a tidy era last year. That assumption is incorrect

 

never go full retard

[GD]

Yer dumn

 

I'd say respond to my PM but I now realize you're making your way to TCA Territory

[TRM]

I'd say respond to my PM but I now realize you're making your way to TCA Territory

 

GD wants to know the history of the Normans and the Darrels. I'll give you my sparknotes version, but someone else could give you a more length and accurate history lesson..

[TRM]

The Darrells were formed since there was a need for a beacon of hope and reason at the old cesspool of a board.

 

The Normans came to fruition because BTS and I subtly undermined the Darrells reign, while also gaining their begrudging respect. There was also a need to acknowledge the group of (two) individuals who represented all that is good at this board, while also being superior fantasy players and handsome fellows.

 

TL/DR: We are awesome

[saskjayfan]

never go full retard

 

sometimes I forget some of you are kids. Usually when I'm drinking. One day you will be able to legally go to a bar.

[King]

sometimes I forget some of you are kids. Usually when I'm drinking. One day you will be able to legally go to a bar.

 

You're a f***ing idiot.

[GD]

sometimes I forget some of you are kids. Usually when I'm drinking. One day you will be able to legally go to a bar.

 

"legally" is an overrated term

[GD]

The Darrells were formed since there was a need for a beacon of hope and reason at the old cesspool of a board.

 

The Normans came to fruition because BTS and I subtly undermined the Darrells reign, while also gaining their begrudging respect. There was also a need to acknowledge the group of (two) individuals who represented all that is good at this board, while also being superior fantasy players and handsome fellows.

 

TL/DR: We are awesome

 

tempting. very tempting

[King]

tempting. very tempting

 

BBBB, Sending you a PM.

[closetjaysfan]

One thing is for sure: regardless of how Sanchez turns out this season this thread is going to get thrown in the face of half the membership of this forum... some pretty hard lines being drawn.

[GD]

BTS thinks Stroman is a reliever. LOL.

 

BTS is so dumn.

[GD]

One thing is for sure: regardless of how Sanchez turns out this season this thread is going to get thrown in the face of half the membership of this forum... some pretty hard lines being drawn.

 

Not only do you not really seem to understand that certain stats can have meaning within less sample than others, you also don't seem to follow the notion that no one f***ing knows what Sanchez is going to be, but that doesn't stop us from making an educated guess by using the best knowledge we have, what we can discern from his brief MLB stint (GB%: very good (I think I forget off the top of my head), SwStr: Extremely concerning), his MiLB numbers (horrendous), and the eye test (very good). So, we've got two very good things, the eye test and the GB rate. Problem is, it's unlikely that those two outweigh the SwStr, which is very very very bad in MLB, and pretty meh in MiLB, which is a very important measure, and the rest of his MiLB numbers.

 

TLDR No, we don't know what he'll be, but that isn't any sort of justification for him playing. What we can guess, based off of what has already happened, is that he will not be very good. He could be very good, but our educated guess would be otherwise.

 

Now, I'm going to stop before my jimmies reach full rustle.

 

@oracle gif me missing the forest for the trees

 

Hard lines?

[closetjaysfan]

Hard lines?

 

Well not everyone is in the he sucks or he is going to be cy young camp. im on the fence myself. I think he earned a chance to start and with stroman out it is inevitable. Not going to predict how well he does. I plan on sitting back with a couple of beers and seeing how he turns out and that is frankly the fun of baseball. If advanced stats were so good as to predict every outcome, it would be a boring f***ing game.

[BTS]

BTS thinks Stroman is a reliever. LOL.

 

BTS is so dumn

 

I hate you both.

[GD]

Well not everyone is in the he sucks or he is going to be cy young camp. im on the fence myself. I think he earned a chance to start and with stroman out it is inevitable. Not going to predict how well he does. I plan on sitting back with a couple of beers and seeing how he turns out and that is frankly the fun of baseball. If advanced stats were so good as to predict every outcome, it would be a boring f***ing game.

 

where has this been said, lol

[King]

I don't understand the mentality that he "deserves a chance to start". He's blown chunks as a starter at every level of the minor leagues.