Aaron Sanchez Reality Check Thread

[L54]

where has this been said, lol

 

Lern2Read

[TheHurl]

As much as there are some posters that can never be educated, there are several people here that do a terrible job explaining their position and why it is there position. Some information that I think I understand from looking at swinging strikes (I'm not very smart so I could be wrong), is that there are ways to be successful with a low swinging strike percentage. Mark Buehrle is a great example (better than Alvarez considering how long he has done it for, others I can think of off the top of my head are Fister & Colon)...so in follow it's interesting to look at what Buehrle does well to be successful;

1. High groundball rates. Sanchez gets a check here too

2. Great fielding. We'll give Sanchez an incomplete here.

3. Low walk rates. This is where Sanchez has to get to...and this is where Sanchez's minor league history comes into play.

4. Lower BABIP. Buerhle's best ERA seasons are tied directly to his lower BABIP seasons. This is really out of Sanchez or anyone's control but it's a factor for short term success for Sanchez. A great example of a younger guy that got low swinging strikes that had good ERA based success last season is Shelby Miller. His swinging strike % came way down last year and his BB rate wasn't great still. His .256 BABIP was a huge factor in his 3.74 ERA. I'd also like to add that the Cards felt that Miller's best value was in a trade. The same stance that JFAs has openly talked about with Sanchez.

 

So no one (not Tercet, not JFAs, not BTS, not me) are saying that Sanchez can't have success. But in a season where the Jays will likely need a successful starter, chances are he will need one of the following to happen:

 

Develop a pitch that generates a higher swinging strike percentage (it's possible but that is something that is more likely to happen in the minors) or make changes to his existing pitches (higher velocity, more movement) and increase the Swinging Strikes.

Lower his walk rate from his minor league rates. This one is the biggest key, can he do it? History says no, but it's possible that in the minors his walk rates were directly a result of the Jays trying to get him to do things he wasn't comfortable with.

Get Lucky! If he's going to have low BABIP related success it's fine for short term results which is what most here care about. It still doesn't solve Sanchez long term though.

 

I hope I've covered things in a way that explains why people are struggling to see Sanchez having success, but he's still a top prospect.

[Abomination]

As much as there are some posters that can never be educated, there are several people here that do a terrible job explaining their position and why it is there position. Some information that I think I understand from looking at swinging strikes (I'm not very smart so I could be wrong), is that there are ways to be successful with a low swinging strike percentage. Mark Buehrle is a great example (better than Alvarez considering how long he has done it for, others I can think of off the top of my head are Fister & Colon)...so in follow it's interesting to look at what Buehrle does well to be successful;

 

I think the best example might be the ultimate sinkerballer Derek Lowe. He had lower K rates (I actually think Sanchez will strike out more batters than Lowe), and as a starter the seasons where Lowe struggled were the ones where his walk rate approached or exceeded 3. When it was close to 2, he did quite well (mid 3's xFIP and ERA). Good command of a pitch designed to be hit is so incredibly important.

[TheHurl]

As long as I'm on a little educating kick. King, I remember when the Darrell's were starting out, with their "Deity" Noxage leading the way. They had issues with many posters on the old board, but eventually they learned how to get their point across in a clearer way and came off as intelligent and worthy of a read no matter what they were posting. The Howie's should follow their God JFAs who has started to do a much better job of explaining himself in most of his posts now.

 

Keep in mind King, you are currently to the Howie's what Boxy is to the Darrell's ...strive to be more. Being top Howie is not difficult, and maybe you won't even be the Norman's whipping boy anymore.

[Angrioter]

As much as there are some posters that can never be educated, there are several people here that do a terrible job explaining their position and why it is there position. Some information that I think I understand from looking at swinging strikes (I'm not very smart so I could be wrong), is that there are ways to be successful with a low swinging strike percentage. Mark Buehrle is a great example (better than Alvarez considering how long he has done it for, others I can think of off the top of my head are Fister & Colon)...so in follow it's interesting to look at what Buehrle does well to be successful;

1. High groundball rates. Sanchez gets a check here too

2. Great fielding. We'll give Sanchez an incomplete here.

3. Low walk rates. This is where Sanchez has to get to...and this is where Sanchez's minor league history comes into play.

4. Lower BABIP. Buerhle's best ERA seasons are tied directly to his lower BABIP seasons. This is really out of Sanchez or anyone's control but it's a factor for short term success for Sanchez. A great example of a younger guy that got low swinging strikes that had good ERA based success last season is Shelby Miller. His swinging strike % came way down last year and his BB rate wasn't great still. His .256 BABIP was a huge factor in his 3.74 ERA. I'd also like to add that the Cards felt that Miller's best value was in a trade. The same stance that JFAs has openly talked about with Sanchez.

 

So no one (not Tercet, not JFAs, not BTS, not me) are saying that Sanchez can't have success. But in a season where the Jays will likely need a successful starter, chances are he will need one of the following to happen:

 

Develop a pitch that generates a higher swinging strike percentage (it's possible but that is something that is more likely to happen in the minors) or make changes to his existing pitches (higher velocity, more movement) and increase the Swinging Strikes.

Lower his walk rate from his minor league rates. This one is the biggest key, can he do it? History says no, but it's possible that in the minors his walk rates were directly a result of the Jays trying to get him to do things he wasn't comfortable with.

Get Lucky! If he's going to have low BABIP related success it's fine for short term results which is what most here care about. It still doesn't solve Sanchez long term though.

 

I hope I've covered things in a way that explains why people are struggling to see Sanchez having success, but he's still a top prospect.

 

 

Sanchez and Fister-Buehrle-Colon are very different pitchers. The only way that Sanchez can simulate performances like the 3 old dudes before mentioned, is limiting walks.

 

Depend as much on defense to be effective could be dangerous. And YES, you can find guys like Buehrle, Colon, Porcello, Fister, Joe Kelly (Low K, Low ERA)............but also with guys like Saunders, Danks, Kendricks, Lyles, Roberto Hernandez (Low K, High ERA)

[JaysFan75]

As much as there are some posters that can never be educated, there are several people here that do a terrible job explaining their position and why it is there position. Some information that I think I understand from looking at swinging strikes (I'm not very smart so I could be wrong), is that there are ways to be successful with a low swinging strike percentage. Mark Buehrle is a great example (better than Alvarez considering how long he has done it for, others I can think of off the top of my head are Fister & Colon)...so in follow it's interesting to look at what Buehrle does well to be successful;

1. High groundball rates. Sanchez gets a check here too

2. Great fielding. We'll give Sanchez an incomplete here.

3. Low walk rates. This is where Sanchez has to get to...and this is where Sanchez's minor league history comes into play.

4. Lower BABIP. Buerhle's best ERA seasons are tied directly to his lower BABIP seasons. This is really out of Sanchez or anyone's control but it's a factor for short term success for Sanchez. A great example of a younger guy that got low swinging strikes that had good ERA based success last season is Shelby Miller. His swinging strike % came way down last year and his BB rate wasn't great still. His .256 BABIP was a huge factor in his 3.74 ERA. I'd also like to add that the Cards felt that Miller's best value was in a trade. The same stance that JFAs has openly talked about with Sanchez.

 

So no one (not Tercet, not JFAs, not BTS, not me) are saying that Sanchez can't have success. But in a season where the Jays will likely need a successful starter, chances are he will need one of the following to happen:

 

Develop a pitch that generates a higher swinging strike percentage (it's possible but that is something that is more likely to happen in the minors) or make changes to his existing pitches (higher velocity, more movement) and increase the Swinging Strikes.

Lower his walk rate from his minor league rates. This one is the biggest key, can he do it? History says no, but it's possible that in the minors his walk rates were directly a result of the Jays trying to get him to do things he wasn't comfortable with.

Get Lucky! If he's going to have low BABIP related success it's fine for short term results which is what most here care about. It still doesn't solve Sanchez long term though.

 

I hope I've covered things in a way that explains why people are struggling to see Sanchez having success, but he's still a top prospect.

 

Here's a couple problems I have with this line of reasoning.

 

1. If pitchers have no control over BABIP, how do you explain Chris Young, Dave Stieb, Sid Fernandez, Charlie Hough, Matt Cain, etc... who have consistently maintained BABIP rates below average. See http://rotosynthesis.rotowire.com/Is-Pitcher-BABIP-Luck-BBD3653.htm

 

2. History may show that it is more likely than not that Sanchez will not dramatically improve his walk rates, but it doesn't say that he CAN'T. There have been guys who have done it, and there's no reason he can't. His walk rates since the middle of last season have been dramatically better then his previous rates, so it's possible that this will continue.

 

To me, until he proves that his numbers since the end of June 2014 were a fluke, he deserves a shot.

[KingKat]

Here's a couple problems I have with this line of reasoning.

 

1. If pitchers have no control over BABIP, how do you explain Chris Young, Dave Stieb, Sid Fernandez, Charlie Hough, Matt Cain, etc... who have consistently maintained BABIP rates below average.

 

You'd have to look at all these individual cases but the simplest explanation is usually better defense and the simplest explanation for that better defense is usually that the pitcher is a good fielder himself. This was addressed indirectly in Hurl's post where he mentionned Buehrle's defense. Buehrle earns himself a lot of extra outs on balls in play just through the excellence of his own fielding. That's the biggest reason why he's consitently been able to beat his own projections (it's my understanding that Steamer and a few other systems started adjusting for pitcher defense last year specifically to be able to more accurately project both Buehrle and Kershaw).

[Gorlak]

To think, if Stroman were healthy, the likely set up would have been Sanchez in the pen, Estrada in the rotation, Norris in AAA, and Castro in Dunedin.

 

One injury, and suddenly two prospects who should start in the minors (Norris for service time reasons) will start in the bigs, and another who should be a reliever will be in the rotation.

 

Damn Marcus, you had to f*** up your ACL, didn't you?

 

Castro would have made the team regardless, The injury has brought Osuna into the conversation though.

[Boxcar]

As long as I'm on a little educating kick. King, I remember when the Darrell's were starting out, with their "Deity" Noxage leading the way. They had issues with many posters on the old board, but eventually they learned how to get their point across in a clearer way and came off as intelligent and worthy of a read no matter what they were posting. The Howie's should follow their God JFAs who has started to do a much better job of explaining himself in most of his posts now.

 

Keep in mind King, you are currently to the Howie's what Boxy is to the Darrell's ...strive to be more. Being top Howie is not difficult, and maybe you won't even be the Norman's whipping boy anymore.

 

:'(

[Laika]

As much as there are some posters that can never be educated, there are several people here that do a terrible job explaining their position and why it is there position. Some information that I think I understand from looking at swinging strikes (I'm not very smart so I could be wrong), is that there are ways to be successful with a low swinging strike percentage. Mark Buehrle is a great example (better than Alvarez considering how long he has done it for, others I can think of off the top of my head are Fister & Colon)...so in follow it's interesting to look at what Buehrle does well to be successful;

1. High groundball rates. Sanchez gets a check here too

2. Great fielding. We'll give Sanchez an incomplete here.

3. Low walk rates. This is where Sanchez has to get to...and this is where Sanchez's minor league history comes into play.

4. Lower BABIP. Buerhle's best ERA seasons are tied directly to his lower BABIP seasons. This is really out of Sanchez or anyone's control but it's a factor for short term success for Sanchez. A great example of a younger guy that got low swinging strikes that had good ERA based success last season is Shelby Miller. His swinging strike % came way down last year and his BB rate wasn't great still. His .256 BABIP was a huge factor in his 3.74 ERA. I'd also like to add that the Cards felt that Miller's best value was in a trade. The same stance that JFAs has openly talked about with Sanchez.

 

So no one (not Tercet, not JFAs, not BTS, not me) are saying that Sanchez can't have success. But in a season where the Jays will likely need a successful starter, chances are he will need one of the following to happen:

 

Develop a pitch that generates a higher swinging strike percentage (it's possible but that is something that is more likely to happen in the minors) or make changes to his existing pitches (higher velocity, more movement) and increase the Swinging Strikes.

Lower his walk rate from his minor league rates. This one is the biggest key, can he do it? History says no, but it's possible that in the minors his walk rates were directly a result of the Jays trying to get him to do things he wasn't comfortable with.

Get Lucky! If he's going to have low BABIP related success it's fine for short term results which is what most here care about. It still doesn't solve Sanchez long term though.

 

I hope I've covered things in a way that explains why people are struggling to see Sanchez having success, but he's still a top prospect.

 

this post is garbage

[Gorlak]

As much as there are some posters that can never be educated, there are several people here that do a terrible job explaining their position and why it is there position. Some information that I think I understand from looking at swinging strikes (I'm not very smart so I could be wrong), is that there are ways to be successful with a low swinging strike percentage. Mark Buehrle is a great example (better than Alvarez considering how long he has done it for, others I can think of off the top of my head are Fister & Colon)...so in follow it's interesting to look at what Buehrle does well to be successful;

1. High groundball rates. Sanchez gets a check here too

2. Great fielding. We'll give Sanchez an incomplete here.

3. Low walk rates. This is where Sanchez has to get to...and this is where Sanchez's minor league history comes into play.

4. Lower BABIP. Buerhle's best ERA seasons are tied directly to his lower BABIP seasons. This is really out of Sanchez or anyone's control but it's a factor for short term success for Sanchez. A great example of a younger guy that got low swinging strikes that had good ERA based success last season is Shelby Miller. His swinging strike % came way down last year and his BB rate wasn't great still. His .256 BABIP was a huge factor in his 3.74 ERA. I'd also like to add that the Cards felt that Miller's best value was in a trade. The same stance that JFAs has openly talked about with Sanchez.

 

So no one (not Tercet, not JFAs, not BTS, not me) are saying that Sanchez can't have success. But in a season where the Jays will likely need a successful starter, chances are he will need one of the following to happen:

 

Develop a pitch that generates a higher swinging strike percentage (it's possible but that is something that is more likely to happen in the minors) or make changes to his existing pitches (higher velocity, more movement) and increase the Swinging Strikes.

Lower his walk rate from his minor league rates. This one is the biggest key, can he do it? History says no, but it's possible that in the minors his walk rates were directly a result of the Jays trying to get him to do things he wasn't comfortable with.

Get Lucky! If he's going to have low BABIP related success it's fine for short term results which is what most here care about. It still doesn't solve Sanchez long term though.

 

I hope I've covered things in a way that explains why people are struggling to see Sanchez having success, but he's still a top prospect.

 

I agree with all of this, Walks will likely make or break his season. The one thing I would say is that the reason his ceiling is considered so high is because he has the stuff to limit hits, So it's not out of the realm of possibility that maintaining a low babip may be a skill he possesses. If he can manage under 8 H/9 and a HR/9 under .5, he will offset a lot of the damage the walks would cause. Better to give up Walks than hits.

[KingKat]

Castro would have made the team regardless, The injury has brought Osuna into the conversation though.

 

Ah man... There's been so much talk about Castro that I kind of ignored the very real possiblity that both Osuna will break camp as relievers. Starting prospects? We don't need no stinking starting prospects.

[JaysFan75]

You'd have to look at all these individual cases but the simplest explanation is usually better defense and the simplest explanation for that better defense is usually that the pitcher is a good fielder himself. This was addressed indirectly in Hurl's post where he mentionned Buehrle's defense. Buehrle earns himself a lot of extra outs on balls in play just through the excellence of his own fielding. That's the biggest reason why he's consitently been able to beat his own projections (it's my understanding that Steamer and a few other systems started adjusting for pitcher defense last year specifically to be able to more accurately project both Buehrle and Kershaw).

 

So Chris Young, Ted Lilly, Johan Santana and Carlos Zambrano had consistently low BABIP rates over their careers because they were good fielders?

[Gorlak]

Ah man... There's been so much talk about Castro that I kind of ignored the very real possiblity that both Osuna will break camp as relievers. Starting prospects? We don't need no stinking starting prospects.

 

The writing was on the wall when AA didn't sign any relievers.

[BTS]

So Chris Young, Ted Lilly, Johan Santana and Carlos Zambrano had consistently low BABIP rates over their careers because they were good fielders?

 

Chris Young induces a ton of infield flies.

[JaysFan75]

Chris Young induces a ton of infield flies.

 

And that's got nothing to do with him I suppose. Just luck....

[Angrioter]

Chris Young induces a ton of infield flies.

 

 

BABIP monster is selective about his victims

[Laika]

And that's got nothing to do with him I suppose. Just luck....

 

The point is that keeping BABIP low is a very rare skill that takes a huge amount of time to stabilize. To give Aaron Sanchez the benefit of the doubt that he might have this skill is silly. It's best to assume that he doesn't have any special skill in that regard until the evidence begins to convincingly show otherwise.

[Gorlak]

The point is that keeping BABIP low is a very rare skill that takes a huge amount of time to stabilize. To give Aaron Sanchez the benefit of the doubt that he might have this skill is silly. It's best to assume that he doesn't have any special skill in that regard until the evidence begins to convincingly show otherwise.

 

He Had that skill the entire time he was in the minors and in his brief stint in the majors.

[Laika]

He Had that skill the entire time he was in the minors and in his brief stint in the majors.

 

a) sample size would not be big enough anyway

you'd hang your hat on the .286 mark in the minors?

[GD]

He Had that skill the entire time he was in the minors and in his brief stint in the majors.

 

He had an MiLB BABIP of .286. And 23 MLB IP means absolutely nothing when talking about BABIP. That's kinda the point of BABIP.

 

e: f*** off NJH you dickbutt

[Gorlak]

a) sample size would not be big enough anyway

you'd hang your hat on the .286 mark in the minors?

 

Usually no, but combined with his ability to limit homeruns it keeps his opp avg low enough.

[Laika]

Usually no, but combined with his ability to limit homeruns it keeps his opp avg low enough.

 

You're assuming he has two skills that he might not have.

[Laika]

He had an MiLB BABIP of .286. And 23 MLB IP means absolutely nothing when talking about BABIP. That's kinda the point of BABIP.

 

e: f*** off NJH you dickbutt

 

what's with the cursing? it's not even 5 o'clock.

 

mods?

[GD]

it's not even 5 o'clock.

 

posted at 04:57 PM

[Nox]

what's with the cursing? it's not even 5 o'clock.

 

mods?

 

Both you kids need to get back to school.

[JaysFan75]

You're assuming he has two skills that he might not have.

 

How is it an assumption when there's evidence to support it?

[Laika]

How is it an assumption when there's evidence to support it?

 

The evidence falls far short of proof at this point.

 

At best, you could call it a speculation.

 

Aaron Sanchez has GB skills - fact.

Aaron Sanchez can suppress BABIP - speculation (assumption/hope/dream).

 

In fact, GB% actually has a positive correlation with BABIP.

[Abomination]

The evidence falls far short of proof at this point.

 

At best, you could call it a speculation.

 

Aaron Sanchez has GB skills - fact.

Aaron Sanchez can suppress BABIP - speculation (assumption/hope/dream).

Aaron Sanchez can suppress HR rate - speculation (assumption/hope/dream).

 

In fact, GB% actually has a positive correlation with BABIP.

 

Considering the heavy ground ball numbers, and the fact Pompey has some serious wheels, I wonder if the Jays would consider going with 5 infielders when he pitches?

[bendera3]

Considering the heavy ground ball numbers, and the fact Pompey has some serious wheels, I wonder if the Jays would consider going with 5 infielders when he pitches?

 

We don't have 4 good infielders, let alone 5