Around Baseball 2015

[Laika]

Wait. how is it that Iwakuma's HR/FB has been so far worse than average over like 700 innings?

 

He is a groundball pitcher, so when he gives up flyballs it's probably on a pitch that he didn't execute well that got hammered. You actually see this a lot with GB guys. Check out Keuchel.

[Laika]

You're right that it's not determinative by any means. I thought the relationship was stronger. GB rate probably only has a small effect on HR/FB%.

 

Since 2002

 

Bottom third in GB% had HR/FB of 9.90%

Middle third............ 10.06%

Upper third.............10.66%

 

http://i.imgur.com/HoEh3yK.png

 

R^2 = only 0.0225

[Chappy]

3/50 for Kuma if that gets him here. Seems like a relative bargain given what a top arm like Price will cost and length of contract. Kuma is still a very good pitcher. Even if he tanks in year 3 this deal is worth it.

[Cyborg]

It's just distribution of exit angles vs. stringer determination. GB pitcher flyballs will have a lower angle than FB pitcher, and will be a home run more often.

[Laika]

Sounds like the Lowrie trade might precipitate a trade of Lawrie: http://m.sfgate.com/news/article/Jed-Lowrie-rejoins-A-s-Brett-Lawrie-likely-to-6657610.php

[Frenchsoup]

Sounds like the Lowrie trade might precipitate a trade of Lawrie: http://m.sfgate.com/news/article/Jed-Lowrie-rejoins-A-s-Brett-Lawrie-likely-to-6657610.php

 

Why doesn't anybody want this Lawrie guy? Is it because he's injury prone? An *******? Or just not that good at baseball?

[BTS]

Why doesn't anybody want this Lawrie guy? Is it because he's injury prone? An *******? Or just not that good at baseball?

 

Probably all three.

[HERPDERP]

He'd be a great 2B.

[Frenchsoup]

He'd be a great 2B.

 

Why?

[KingKat]

Probably all three.

 

Holy hell! What happened here?

 

http://www.bluejaysmessageboard.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=1359&d=1448545855

 

 

[intentional wok]

Holy hell! What happened here?

 

http://www.bluejaysmessageboard.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=1359&d=1448545855

 

 

[ATTACH=CONFIG]1359[/ATTACH]

 

Learning 2B on the fly maybe?

 

I don't actually know how much Lawrie was asked to play 2B this year, though.

[Laika]

Holy hell! What happened here?

 

http://www.bluejaysmessageboard.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=1359&d=1448545855

 

 

[ATTACH=CONFIG]1359[/ATTACH]

 

Has to just be noise...

[Laika]

Learning 2B on the fly maybe?

 

I don't actually know how much Lawrie was asked to play 2B this year, though.

 

His UZR was just as bad at 3B

[HERPDERP]

Why?

 

15-20 HR bat with at least solid defense at 2B.

[HERPDERP]

Has to just be noise...

 

Probably, I still don't understand 2014 Trout

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=10155&position=OF

[KingKat]

Learning 2B on the fly maybe?

 

I don't actually know how much Lawrie was asked to play 2B this year, though.

 

930.2 innings at 3B, 361 at 2B.

 

Exactly the same UZR/150 of -15.8 at both positions suggesting he was equally bad.

 

For comparison, he had +14.9 at 3B (403) in his last Toronto and a merely -0.1 at 2B (193 innings).

 

 

Just seems like he got really bad at everything really fast. It's funny too because it didn't exactly feel like the Jays were selling high on him when they traded him.

[Brownie19]

930.2 innings at 3B, 361 at 2B.

 

Exactly the same UZR/150 of -15.8 at both positions suggesting he was equally bad.

 

For comparison, he had +14.9 at 3B (403) in his last Toronto and a merely -0.1 at 2B (193 innings).

 

 

Just seems like he got really bad at everything really fast. It's funny too because it didn't exactly feel like the Jays were selling high on him when they traded him.

 

That's spot on. It always seemed to be a matter of staying healthy. I think as a minimum, everyone would have expected his defense to remain elite. A very odd season for Brett.

[gruber92]

Wow, this magnifies the trade for Donaldson that much more. If the A's are that strapped for cash where they needed to avoid paying a player of Donaldson's calibre $12-15mil for four years, then I would really hate to be an A's fan right about now.

[BTS]

Wow, this magnifies the trade for Donaldson that much more. If the A's are that strapped for cash where they needed to avoid paying a player of Donaldson's calibre $12-15mil for four years, then I would really hate to be an A's fan right about now.

 

They were able to trade Donaldson for assets and free up the cash for Billy Butler. Win-win.

[flafson]

The were able to trade Donaldson for assets and free up the cash for Billy Butler. Win-win.

 

It's win-win if your first name is Billy and last name Butler.

[Boxcar]

It's win-win if your first name is Billy and last name Butler.

 

...yeah that was the joke.

[KingKat]

Has to just be noise...

 

Seems like an awful lot of noise.

[Laika]

Seems like an awful lot of noise.

 

Well his defensive skill at 3B didn't all of a sudden plummet by ~25 runs.

[Dr. Dinger]

Lawrie could be a nice utility player, I would what the pricetag would be to re-acquire him? God knows Travis can't be banked on for next year.

[KingKat]

Well his defensive skill at 3B didn't all of a sudden plummet by ~25 runs.

 

Well what's reasonable then? What's a reasonable amount of defensive decline? It there a cap on just how bad a defensive season can be compared to precedent? I don't think there is. What's a reasonable amount to chalk up to noise? The whole thing?

[Laika]

Well what's reasonable then? What's a reasonable amount of defensive decline? It there a cap on just how bad a defensive season can be compared to precedent? I don't think there is. What's a reasonable amount to chalk up to noise? The whole thing?

 

Well the amount of reasonable/expected decline in defensive skill at 25 years old, with no debilitating injury, is very small. Actually, players should still be improving at 25.

 

http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/625887/feilding.jpg?_ga=1.138826931.1292300710.1445115791

 

I don't know what the reasonable amount to "chalk up to noise" is. But we know that one season of UZR isn't a stable measurement of skill.

 

Make your own conclusions about likelihood. We saw Lawrie play defense every day for a few years.

[Laika]

Lawrie could be a nice utility player, I would what the pricetag would be to re-acquire him? God knows Travis can't be banked on for next year.

 

Ben Revere straight up? lol

[TheHurl]

Holy hell! What happened here?

 

http://www.bluejaysmessageboard.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=1359&d=1448545855

 

 

[ATTACH=CONFIG]1359[/ATTACH]

 

injuries getting to him is a possibility. So much of Lawrie's good fielding is based on pure effort. Also possible that the effort just isn't as great anymore. Defensive decline isn't even the oddest of the Lawrie stats...how about 25 years old and on his third engagement (with zero marriages to date)

[BTS]

injuries getting to him is a possibility. So much of Lawrie's good fielding is based on pure effort. Also possible that the effort just isn't as great anymore. Defensive decline isn't even the oddest of the Lawrie stats...how about 25 years old and on his third engagement (with zero marriages to date)

 

Wo, that's bananas

[Dr. Dinger]

Ben Revere straight up? lol

 

Beane would really have to be down on him to consider that. Although the fact that he's going to get bumped out of the starting lineup by Jed Lowrie says a lot.