Blue Jays kicking tires on Shields

[TwistedLogic]

We should be happy if 2 of Norris, Sanchez, Osuna, Castro, Foley, Smoral establish themselves as MLB starters

 

Even Norris is no sure thing. The list of top pitching prospects that crashed and burned is very very long.

 

Shields is a workhorse that is a nice replacement for MB as rotation anchor

 

I understand and I agree. That said, can you make a list of upper-echelon Jays pitching prospects that have crashed and burned, that were drafted and developed under Alex Anthopoulos?

[ElNik2013]

We should be happy if 2 of Norris, Sanchez, Osuna, Castro, Foley, Smoral establish themselves as MLB starters

 

Even Norris is no sure thing. The list of top pitching prospects that crashed and burned is very very long.

 

Shields is a workhorse that is a nice replacement for MB as rotation anchor

 

 

I imagine you forgot Hoffman, but that's fine for me. 2 out of the above list plus Hutchison and Stroman is pretty f***ing good.

[Dick_Pole]

I understand and I agree. That said, can you make a list of upper-echelon Jays pitching prospects that have crashed and burned, that were drafted and developed under Alex Anthopoulos?

 

I'm sure Pat Gillick's list is much longer, for the fact that all of Gillick's draft picks have played through their careers. Way too early to judge AA's picks, none of them have had an opportunity to crash and burn yet.

[Dick_Pole]

I imagine you forgot Hoffman, but that's fine for me. 2 out of the above list plus Hutchison and Stroman is pretty f***ing good.

 

The smart thing to do would be to trade some of those pitching prospects for position prospects, if possible imo.

[ElNik2013]

It's also somewhat realistic to expect some of the above-mentioned pitching prospects to be used as trade bait and hopefully (if in fact traded) turn them into readier or established MLB players.

[TwistedLogic]

I'd honestly like to see a list of top Anthopoulos pitching prospects that have flamed out. The only name that comes to mind is Nestor Molina, who was acquired prior to AA's tenure as GM, and was smartly traded right before he became a bust. Nolin and Graveman were used to acquire Donaldson, and are both top ten in the A's system. Nicolino was used as a significant piece in the Marlins deal, and is still #3 in their system. Syndergaard is a top 10 prospect in baseball. Norris is top 20, Sanchez is top 50. All three guys look to be at least league-average major league players at this point, whether that is in the rotation, or through the bullpen. Hutchison has panned out. Stroman has panned out. Loup came up and instantly became an above-average reliever.

 

Yeah, pitching prospects bust all the time, but where is the precedent for AA's pitching prospects busting? Outside of Molina who he didn't acquire, and maybe Drabek if you consider trades, AA has had no major pitching busts (as far as I can recall; I'm probably forgetting someone).

[ElNik2013]

The smart thing to do would be to trade some of those pitching prospects for position prospects, if possible imo.

 

 

I just posted about this. You could be right and AA has shown a willingness to wheel and deal so it might be part of his strategy since he's drafted so much pitching.

[King]

I'd honestly like to see a list of top Anthopoulos pitching prospects that have flamed out. The only name that comes to mind is Nestor Molina, who was acquired prior to AA's tenure as GM, and was smartly traded right before he became a bust. Nolin and Graveman were used to acquire Donaldson, and are both top ten in the A's system. Nicolino was used as a significant piece in the Marlins deal, and is still #3 in their system. Syndergaard is a top 10 prospect in baseball. Norris is top 20, Sanchez is top 50. All three guys look to be at least league-average major league players at this point, whether that is in the rotation, or through the bullpen. Hutchison has panned out. Stroman has panned out. Loup came up and instantly became an above-average reliever.

 

Yeah, pitching prospects bust all the time, but where is the precedent for AA's pitching prospects busting? Outside of Molina who he didn't acquire, and maybe Drabek if you consider trades, AA has had no major pitching busts (as far as I can recall; I'm probably forgetting someone).

 

Deck McGuire, Tyler Gonzales

[TwistedLogic]

I'm sure Pat Gillick's list is much longer, for the fact that all of Gillick's draft picks have played through their careers. Way too early to judge AA's picks, none of them have had an opportunity to crash and burn yet.

 

Incorrect. See my previous post.

 

It's also somewhat realistic to expect some of the above-mentioned pitching prospects to be used as trade bait and hopefully (if in fact traded) turn them into readier or established MLB players.

 

Kinda like turning Nolin and Graveman into Donaldson?

[ElNik2013]

I'd honestly like to see a list of top Anthopoulos pitching prospects that have flamed out. The only name that comes to mind is Nestor Molina, who was acquired prior to AA's tenure as GM, and was smartly traded right before he became a bust. Nolin and Graveman were used to acquire Donaldson, and are both top ten in the A's system. Nicolino was used as a significant piece in the Marlins deal, and is still #3 in their system. Syndergaard is a top 10 prospect in baseball. Norris is top 20, Sanchez is top 50. All three guys look to be at least league-average major league players at this point, whether that is in the rotation, or through the bullpen. Hutchison has panned out. Stroman has panned out. Loup came up and instantly became an above-average reliever.

 

Yeah, pitching prospects bust all the time, but where is the precedent for AA's pitching prospects busting? Outside of Molina who he didn't acquire, and maybe Drabek if you consider trades, AA has had no major pitching busts (as far as I can recall; I'm probably forgetting someone).

 

Only thing to nit-nose-pick would be that Hutchison was drafted in 2009 ( I think). On the other hand, he's been developed under AA and development has been one of the complaints some posters have had against the Jays.

[TwistedLogic]

Deck McGuire, Tyler Gonzales

 

I'll give you Deck McGuire, forgot he was drafted by AA. Tyler Gonzales was never a top prospect.

 

Only thing to nit-nose-pick would be that Hutchison was drafted in 2009 ( I think). On the other hand, he's been developed under AA and development has been one of the complaints some posters have had against the Jays.

 

Right; I mentioned Hutch as a success because I mentioned Molina as a failure. Both guys were developed and broke out while AA was the GM. One was kept and became a valuable major leaguer, the other was dealt in a very defensible trade right before he flamed out.

[ElNik2013]

Kinda like turning Nolin and Graveman into Donaldson?

 

 

Yes, that's one example. On the other hand, we have the Dickey trade. To be fair, it took a lot more than Nolin and Graveman to get Donaldson, but point is well taken.

[King]

I'll give you Deck McGuire, forgot he was drafted by AA. Tyler Gonzales was never a top prospect.

 

 

 

Right; I mention Hutch as a success because I mentioned Molina as a failure. Both guys were developed and broke out while AA was the GM. One was kept and became a valuable major leaguer, the other was dealt in a good trade right before he flamed out.

 

Tyler Gonzales was a 60th overall pick, received $750k. That's a significant investment, and not to be ignored because he was never a "top prospect". He's a bust.

[ElNik2013]

Tyler Gonzales was a 60th overall pick, received $750k. That's a significant investment, and not to be ignored because he was never a "top prospect". He's a bust.

 

 

 

I think the point is about draftees/signees that actually became prospects only to "crash and burn" in the upper minors.

 

 

There have been plenty of busts that's for sure. It also speaks to the high percentage of pitchers that have been drafted under him.

[Stangstag]

Chad Jenkins? Wasnt he supposed to be a 4/5 starter?

[ElNik2013]

Also, for Deck McGuire and Tyler Gonzales, AA can raise you a Sean Nolin and a Kendall Graveman. Or their possible replacements in Matt Boyd and Taylor Cole.

[ElNik2013]

Chad Jenkins? Wasnt he supposed to be a 4/5 starter?

 

 

Drafted in 2009 (i.e. before AA took over) and was he ever a top prospect?

[King]

Justin Nicolino blows.

[TwistedLogic]

Adonys Cardona

 

Joe Musgrove

 

Kevin Comer

 

Musgrove and Comer were both moved but were both 1st round picks that have stiffed so far.

 

Not sure where Asher Wojciechowski is at in terms of his progress but there's another 1st rounder than hasn't had a great trajectory.

 

Not saying I'm bashing AA's draft...in fact I'm quite a fan...but to think that there aren't a lot of arms that haven't panned out while on his watch is a little folly. Most draftees don't ever see a day in the majors. AA's picks/prospects aren't any different.

 

There is a lot to love about Stroman, Hutchison, Norris, Sanchez, Osuna, Hoffman, Castro in the next year or two.

 

Tyler Gonzales was a 60th overall pick, received $750k. That's a significant investment, and not to be ignored because he was never a "top prospect". He's a bust.

 

None of those guys were ever top 10 in the system, or even close to it. My question was how many of AA's top prospects had busted. Nobody is ever going to be perfect or even close to perfect in the draft, but that isn't part of equation here. The original discussion was about the likelihood in "Norris, Sanchez, Osuna, Castro, Foley, Smoral" all "crashing and burning". None of the draft prospects you guys mentioned ever got to that stature before busting.

 

Every time an AA pitching prospect has gotten to that level, he's either been traded for a valuable MLB piece, or he's made the roster for a prolonged period of time. The only exceptions are Deck McGuire and Kyle Drabek (who may still have something to give as a reliever).

 

That isn't to say that all of those guys are going to pan out, there's a near-impossible likelihood of that happening. I just don't think that there's need to take the traditionally pessimistic approach to the arms in this system, because that same system has seen a ton of success in recent years.

 

Edit: North was able to word it a lot more eloquently than I did.

[Spanky99]

You guys can go in circles for days on this subject...

 

Also, wasn't Desclafani an AA draftee?

[TwistedLogic]

You guys can go in circles for days on this subject...

 

Also, wasn't Desclafani an AA draftee?

 

Yup.

[King]

You guys can go in circles for days on this subject...

 

Also, wasn't Desclafani an AA draftee?

 

Yes, +1. David Rollins is semi-interesting too. He put up a good season in AA for the Astros last year and was taken by the Mariners in the rule 5 draft in December. 2011 Jays Draftee!

[Spanky99]

Yup.

 

Thought so, he's in the running for a rotation spot this year.

[TwistedLogic]

Speaking of something somewhat related but totally unrelated, here's a funny stat. Over the last decade, there have only been 15 times that a pitcher walked less than two (per 9), struckout more than seven (per 9) and scored a GB rate of 50% or more.

 

The list

Chris Carpenter (2005, 2006)

Roy Halladay (2008, 2009, 2010, 2011)

Cole Hamels (2011)

Kris Medlen (2012)

Brando McCarthy (2014)

Carlos Carrasco (2014)

Hisashi Iwakuma (2014)

Jeff Samardzija (2014)

Felix Hernandez (2014)

Clayton Kershaw (2014)

Marcus Stroman (2014)

 

(Graphic here)

[TwistedLogic]

Yes, +1. David Rollins is semi-interesting too. He put up a good season in AA for the Astros last year and was taken by the Mariners in the rule 5 draft in December. 2011 Jays Draftee!

 

I loved David Rollins. I picked him as a sleeper prospect so many times, his minors numbers were ridiculous. Would be awesome if he were to pan out.

[Spanky99]

2014...yotp!!

[Spanky99]

Flipping cap filler

[NorthOf49]

Speaking of something somewhat related but totally unrelated, here's a funny stat. Over the last decade, there have only been 15 times that a pitcher walked less than two (per 9), struckout more than seven (per 9) and scored a GB rate of 50% or more.(Graphic here)

If you up to strikeouts to one per inning, there's only 3: Kershaw, Felix, Carrasco. All 2014.

 

Kluber was very close too: 10.27/1.95/48%.

[TwistedLogic]

If you up to strikeouts to one per inning, there's only 3: Kershaw, Felix, Carrasco. All 2014.

 

Kluber was very close too: 10.27/1.95/48%.

 

Yeah, Felix 2013 is essentially right there as well. It's insane how fast the offensive game is generally declining. Makes you excited to see how the bats will adjust in the coming years.

[jays76]

TwistedLogic's argument was incoherent. Several highly-regarded amateurs haven't become legitimate prospects and several legitimate prospects have flamed out. That is to be expected in any system.

 

The argument is that the Blue Jays under AA have done a good job drafting and developing pitching prospects since the McGuire and Jenkins mistakes. They're converting on both high draft picks (Sanchez, Syndergaard, Stroman, Norris) and lower ones (Nolin, Graveman, etc.). The Hoffman and Reid-Foley picks look like more steps in the right direction.

 

I think Jenkins is a pretty decent long reliever, he's a good piece to have down in Buffalo on standby. McGuire was a complete misfire but was pretty hard to predict.