Será esto Alex Anthopoulos última temporada? Vete a la mierda chupa mi pollo

[Dick_Pole]

I really wouldn't be the least bit surprised if AA is promoted with LaCava and Tinnish moving up as well. I expect people will argue that it's a promotion that he hasn't really earned. However, I'd counter that under the new alignment, everyone is occupying a job more suited to their particular skill set. There's also something to be said for the value of promoting from within for the sake of consistency and familiarity.

 

I like this line of thought and voted for that as well. It may not happen after this season, but I think will happen eventually.

 

The recent MLB transactions and drafting AA has done reflects to me someone who knows how to surround himself with good people, rather than making analytic calls himself. That's one skill of a good leader. AA has demonstrated a pretty good ability to negotiate internally, with respect to contract extensions. That skill comes most in handy in dealing with suits at the top.

 

Also, f*** the three year window (2013-15), I am more optimistic about 2016 than I was about 2014. I remember people bemoaning how terrible 2016 will be a couple years ago. Young pitching, salary flexibility, stability at C and 3B. Whatever happens with Bautista and Encarnacion down the road, at least that's in the team's control.

[flafson]

If we make the playoffs, AA becomes president. If we miss reasonably, he is kept around. If everything goes wrong he is gone.

 

What makes you think the higher ups will be happy with someone like AA who has only baseball experience? Just because Ed Rogers wanted DD, doesn't mean they will be ok with AA doing that same job.

[LunchBox]

The recent MLB transactions and drafting AA has done reflects to me someone who knows how to surround himself with good people, rather than making analytic calls himself. That's one skill of a good leader. AA has demonstrated a pretty good ability to negotiate internally, with respect to contract extensions. That skill comes most in handy in dealing with suits at the top.

 

I'd also say dealing with the media is a strength and a prerequisite for being Pres. Additionally, remaining involved with amateur scouting and player development, while being removed from roster management would be undeniably beneficial.

[Dick_Pole]

Any move in which he gave an asset for a reliever.

 

Oh come on now, this is way overdone and I think it's a product of him refusing to deal a reliever in 2013 for assets rather than the other way around.

 

Lincoln (a first-round bust) for Snider (another first-round bust) who is just now coming into some value as a role player

Santos for Molina, a pitcher who looks to be going nowhere

Napoli for Francisco, which has been beaten to death a million times and is always looked outside its context where the bigger goal was releasing the Jays of the Wells contract. If it was constructed as a three-way trade where Francisco and Rivera came in and the Angels and Rangers did a swap no one would be complaining about this.

 

Three times it happened (that I recall) in his tenure here, two times it was for minimal assets and the third had a bigger goal in mind.

[CrackerJack]

AA's fate will be determined by whether there's playoff baseball in Toronto this season. Just grabbing the second wildcard and being "one and done" on the road won't be enough to save his job (imo.) Gotta get the Rogers Centre rockin' at least once in the post season to show that glory days could be here again.

[Dick_Pole]

I'd also say dealing with the media is a strength and a prerequisite for being Pres. Additionally, remaining involved with amateur scouting and player development, while being removed from roster management would be undeniably beneficial.

 

100% agree. His roster management is still atrocious, it just pops up in different places each time. This team will either be getting extremely lucky with avoiding injuries this year, or be giving more plate appearances to jobbers (I believe the BJMB official-recognized term is "replacement level") than any other team in the league once again and certainly the most out of any team reasonably expected to compete.

[TwistedLogic]

Transactions like the Lawrie and Rasmus trades suggested at least an intuitive understanding of catch-all metrics of player value. However, that intuition didn't seem to extend to understanding that players like Reyes and MB don't have any surplus value on their contracts, not to mention the value of the assets it took to acquire them; or to the fact that defensively challenged catchers with monster bats still have more value than fat mediocre relievers.

 

But don't they really? If the message from the top was that there is realistic value to be milked out of marketing Reyes and Buehrle, then even if value-wise their contracts are a wash on the field (not really a bad thing), they would have brought in a significant amount of surplus through their marketing value.

 

And in all fairness, that's exactly what happened. They got a massive burst in attendance in 2013 (2.536M) which pushed them nearly 450K over the previous year ticket sales (2.09M), for the highest attendance mark since '97. This also carried over to 2014, where despite the atrocious season, there was only a drop-off of 160K, making 2014 still the second highest attendance mark in the last six years.

 

Gotta look outside the box sometimes. So far Reyes and Buehrle have more than earned their contracts on the field, and if you take into account the added value off the field, I doubt it's really close.

[Dick_Pole]

Rogers as well. Aviles would have been our best 2B at the time, and we all know what Gomes turned into.

 

The Wells trade was very very good. That doesn't mean he gets a mulligan for trading away Napoli in favour of JPA. It wasn't a three-way.

 

Oh s*** yes, I forgot about that awful one. My therapist has told me to erase traumatic things out of my mind.

[TwistedLogic]

http://www.statista.com/statistics/203505/mlb-average-ticket-price-for-toronto-blue-jays-games/

 

To follow up on my last post, if those stats are accurate, the 2012 offseason hype could have made them more than 11.5M in extra revenue off of ticket sales alone in 2013. That's without taking into account the added concession sales, the jerseys, the magazines, the boost in TV ratings, and whatever else they probably made a ton of profit off of. That's also without taking into account that those players probably would have cost a significant amount more for the Jays to have signed them off the open market.

[LunchBox]

But don't they really? If the message from the top was that there is realistic value to be milked out of marketing Reyes and Buehrle, then even if value-wise their contracts are a wash on the field (not really a bad thing), they would have brought in a significant amount of surplus through their marketing value.

 

And in all fairness, that's exactly what happened. They got a massive burst in attendance in 2013 (2.536M) which pushed them nearly 450K over the previous year ticket sales (2.09M), for the highest attendance mark since '97. This also carried over to 2014, where despite the atrocious season, there was only a drop-off of 160K, making 2014 still the second highest attendance mark in the last six years.

 

Gotta look outside the box sometimes. So far Reyes and Buehrle have more than earned their contracts on the field, and if you take into account the added value off the field, I doubt it's really close.

 

There's something to that absolutely. However, in my opinion, no GM should be evaluating players and their respective contracts with impact on attendance and revenue being considered. Team finances are not within the GMs control, they should be acting to assemble the best roster within the financial constraints they are given, not considering the implications of transactions on a budget they're ultimately not responsible for.

[Angrioter]

Update

 

Yes - 11 - 44%

No - 12 - 48%

Will get a promotion - 2 - 8%

[NorthOf49]

The Blue Jays also DFA'd Luis Valbuena in April 2012, right after trading for Ryota Igarashi.

 

Nobody thought anything of Valbuena back then though. The Cubs were able to push him through waivers themselves.

[Dick_Pole]

But don't they really? If the message from the top was that there is realistic value to be milked out of marketing Reyes and Buehrle, then even if value-wise their contracts are a wash on the field (not really a bad thing), they would have brought in a significant amount of surplus through their marketing value.

 

Sometimes I choose not to go to a Jays game just to avoid seeing what awful train wreck Reyes considers to be a hairstyle has hiding under his cap. I'll go with the Donaldson rugged white guy pseudo-fro or faux hawk over that any day so at least they are getting the marketing part of that right even if they had to give up Canada's prettiest and most delicate athlete to get him.

[TwistedLogic]

There's something to that absolutely. However, in my opinion, no GM should be evaluating players and their respective contracts with impact on attendance and revenue being considered. Team finances are not within the GMs control, they should be acting to assemble the best roster within the financial constraints they are given, not considering the implications of transactions on a budget they're ultimately not responsible for.

 

If team finances aren't within the GM's control (I agree), then how can you say whether or not there's any surplus on a player's contract, when evaluating a GM?

 

Moves with payroll implications as large as those are almost never done exclusively by the GM. The president and ownership almost have to be involved. Alex's job is to present to his superiors the on-field implications of the trade, how much better the team will get, what the risks are, and then it's Beeston and Rogers' job to assess the projected hike in revenue that may come from those moves.

 

If Alex is working with Beeston on making a trade, and Beeston is optimistic about the increased revenue and marketing to come from that move (we know that he was), and that helps get the trade done, then you can absolutely consider that a factor in whether or not a guy is providing surplus in relation to his contract.

[Brownie19]

Gomes was projected for a .315 wOBA in CLE by Steamer in the 2012 offseason. Just over 100 wRC+.

 

And were there any signs that he was going to become above average defensively behind the plate and/or that he could be a fulltime catcher? He was always touted as a utility player. No GM is ever going to be perfect and I don't think many (if anyone) around baseball thought Gomes would be anywhere near the player he is today.

[HERPDERP]

His use of catchers was also very telling. Traded practically every decent catcher in the system to give the keys to JPA, and then a year later signed a notoriously lazy and bad framer in Navarro while limiting a good framer like Kratz to AAA duty. Yet this off-season, he signed Martin because of defense and framing. Just seems like a complete 180 from his typical mindset. He also didn't seem to value Melky at all, and then traded a 1 WAR starter at peak value for a potential 2-3 WAR OF.

 

It seemed like two years ago he went for all big names that could sell tickets, and this year it was WAR/value based acquisitions. I definitely like this AA better, but why did it take him so long?

 

you lost me @ melky. What did AA do wrong in that regard?

[TwistedLogic]

The Blue Jays also DFA'd Luis Valbuena in April 2012, right after trading for Ryota Igarashi.

 

Nobody thought anything of Valbuena back then though. The Cubs were able to push him through waivers themselves.

 

Beane DFA'd Edwin. It happens.

[Brownie19]

Oh come on now, this is way overdone and I think it's a product of him refusing to deal a reliever in 2013 for assets rather than the other way around.

 

Lincoln (a first-round bust) for Snider (another first-round bust) who is just now coming into some value as a role player

Santos for Molina, a pitcher who looks to be going nowhere

Napoli for Francisco, which has been beaten to death a million times and is always looked outside its context where the bigger goal was releasing the Jays of the Wells contract. If it was constructed as a three-way trade where Francisco and Rivera came in and the Angels and Rangers did a swap no one would be complaining about this.

 

Three times it happened (that I recall) in his tenure here, two times it was for minimal assets and the third had a bigger goal in mind.

 

 

OK - I can see this point, but at some point, trading from an area of strength for an area of weakness becomes necessary.....we're in that situation RIGHT NOW with Navarro....aren't we all hoping he can deal him away for a decent middle RP?

 

Snider for Lincoln hasn't bite us (although there was clearly potential for it to)

Molina for Santos was a good risk that didn't work out for anyone.

Napoli for Franciso sucked balls - nothing more to say

Aviles and Gomes for Rogers didn't work out - although I think Gomes is an outliner - nobody, not even Cleveland thought he'd be that good.

Thames for Delabar worked out for one year at least.

 

What about dealing League for Morrow? Reliever for a pitcher with Morrow's arm was a great gamble.

 

Deals for Rasmus and Lawrie were excellent deals IMO.

[TheHurl]

http://www.statista.com/statistics/203505/mlb-average-ticket-price-for-toronto-blue-jays-games/

 

To follow up on my last post, if those stats are accurate, the 2012 offseason hype could have made them more than 11.5M in extra revenue off of ticket sales alone in 2013. That's without taking into account the added concession sales, the jerseys, the magazines, the boost in TV ratings, and whatever else they probably made a ton of profit off of. That's also without taking into account that those players probably would have cost a significant amount more for the Jays to have signed them off the open market.

 

so you advocate spending $36M (and the subsequent increases) to make $11.5+ plus whatever beer sales? and actually we took on Buehrle and Reyes worst years of their free agent contract (Florida got the cheap year out of them). Where Rogers should be happy with the moves is that the Jays valuation has gone up more than the league average since 2012.

[TwistedLogic]

so you advocate spending $36M (and the subsequent increases) to make $11.5+ plus whatever beer sales? and actually we took on Buehrle and Reyes worst years of their free agent contract (Florida got the cheap year out of them). Where Rogers should be happy with the moves is that the Jays valuation has gone up more than the league average since 2012.

 

Well there's a straw man if I've ever seen one. I didn't advocate anything. I said that Reyes and Buehrle had provided surplus value on their contracts to this point. I stated a fact. I didn't say it was a good trade.

[TheHurl]

Well there's a straw man if I've ever seen one. I didn't advocate anything. I said that Reyes and Buehrle had provided surplus value on their contracts to this point. I stated a fact. I didn't say it was a good trade.

 

Just thought I'd check. You are still on the long list to handle my finances if I ever get any. As far ticket sales go for this year I'd figure that they need stay even with last year to make up for the exchange related payroll increase, which isn't a bad situation for them in that regards.

[Dick_Pole]

Alex's job is to present to his superiors the on-field implications of the trade, how much better the team will get, what the risks are, and then it's Beeston and Rogers' job to assess the projected hike in revenue that may come from those moves.

 

Going back to LunchBox's first post on the matter, when you read it like this I would feel more comfortable with Alex in Beeston's role and Tinnish in AA's role than the current configuration. Put that economics degree from Mac to good use.

[TheHurl]

Going back to LunchBox's first post on the matter, when you read it like this I would feel more comfortable with Alex in Beeston's role and Tinnish in AA's role than the current configuration. Put that economics degree from Mac to good use.

 

Alex?

 

Honestly I think that's his dream scenario

[glory]

you lost me @ melky. What did AA do wrong in that regard?

 

Nothing. Him not valuing Melky after his 2014 season was a good thing.

[SAAviour]

AA has made some questionable moves, but I'm shocked at how many are still down on him. This off season has been amazing so far and the farm looks pretty solid to me. yes, he needs to put some finishing touches on the roster to complete the off season, but the guy added josh Donaldson with 4 years of control. Seriously, josh Donaldson!!! It still doesn't seem real to me.

[GD]

AA has made some questionable moves, but I'm shocked at how many are still down on him. This off season has been amazing so far and the farm looks pretty solid to me. yes, he needs to put some finishing touches on the roster to complete the off season, but the guy added josh Donaldson with 4 years of control. Seriously, josh Donaldson!!! It still doesn't seem real to me.

 

you've flip flopped so many times but you do it so subtly it's brilliant lol

[BTS]

AA has made some questionable moves, but I'm shocked at how many are still down on him. This off season has been amazing so far and the farm looks pretty solid to me. yes, he needs to put some finishing touches on the roster to complete the off season, but the guy added josh Donaldson with 4 years of control. Seriously, josh Donaldson!!! It still doesn't seem real to me.

 

Well, if you're a glass half empty kind of guy, he's like 20 game sunder 0.500 through 5 years, has topped out at 85 wins, and has an old team that will be impossible to maintain under the current payroll, and that's if their best players continue to age without any signs of decline.

[ElNik2013]

Without the moves after the 2012 season, the Jays would've gone into 2013 expected to lose between 90 and 100 games and this, combined with the terrible ending to the 2012 season, would've led to dwindling attendance and lower tv ratings.

 

Remember, this franchise doesn't do the rebuild thing. There's no doubt they went into that off season with the mindset that they'd make moves to improve the team and create some sort of positive buzz to turn around the negativity with which the 2012 season ended.

[ElNik2013]

We'll see what happens, but if AA is fired tomorrow, I'd say he left a better organization than when he took it over.

[jays4life19]

Well, if you're a glass half empty kind of guy, he's like 20 game sunder 0.500 through 5 years, has topped out at 85 wins, and has an old team that will be impossible to maintain under the current payroll, and that's if their best players continue to age without any signs of decline.

 

He took over a really s***** situation and turned it around pretty fast ( to only s*** it down the toilet with a couple moves). I don't know, he's not perfect but i really liked what he did when he first took over and it seems like he listens to the analytic guys more now. This has been a pretty awesome off season. I'd like to see if he continues this going forward.