Blue Jays renewing interest in James Shields as his price drops

[Spoonovic]

http://t.co/s8xC9ld4ob

[BTS]

"To sign Shields, the Jays likely would need to back-load his contract the way they did with free-agent catcher Russell Martin, who will earn just $7 million in the first year of his five-year, $82 million deal."

 

Christ almighty things could get ugly a year or two from now. I'd like Shields, but backloading all these free agent deals is going to make it impossible to compete after 2016.

[TheHurl]

Nothing ever goes wrong not thinking about the future.

[BTS]

Nothing ever goes wrong not thinking about the future.

 

2017 is already looking brutal:

 

Reyes (22)

Martin (20)

Bautista (20+ if he's re-signed)

Edwin (20+ if he's re-signed)

Shields (20+ if he's signed)

[TwistedLogic]

2017 is already looking brutal:

 

Reyes (22)

Martin (20)

Bautista (20+ if he's re-signed)

Edwin (20+ if he's re-signed)

Shields (20+ is he's signed)

 

Donaldson will be at a good 15M in arb by that point as well.

[L54]

2017 is already looking brutal:

 

Reyes (22)

Martin (20)

Bautista (20+ if he's re-signed)

Edwin (20+ if he's re-signed)

Shields (20+ is he's signed)

 

Lol come on BTS. You can't sit here and say the 2017 payroll is looking brutal, then quote 3 contracts that aren't even signed.

[SaskJaysFan_2]

That would kill two birds with one stone. Shields, while not an ace per se, would be 1-2 on this staff. Then Sanchez becomes the closer.

[glory]

2017 is already looking brutal:

 

Reyes (22)

Martin (20)

Bautista (20+ if he's re-signed)

Edwin (20+ if he's re-signed)

Shields (20+ is he's signed)

 

Reyes has a $4M buyout which they will surely use so his 2017 salary is $26M.

 

The above could work if you trade Reyes for nothing but salary relief and go cheap at short with Travis at 2B, but no one is taking that contract.

[BTS]

Donaldson will be at a good 15M in arb by that point as well.

 

Yeah. It just isn't feasible to commit another 20+ million in 2017 right now. As things stand we're already probably going to lose Edwin or Jose if payroll is staying under 150.

[TheHurl]

2017 is already looking brutal:

 

Reyes (22)

Martin (20)

Bautista (20+ if he's re-signed)

Edwin (20+ if he's re-signed)

Shields (20+ if he's signed)

 

Reyes age 34, Martin 34, Bautista 37, EE 35, Shields 36 and Donaldson in his last year of Arbitration making close to 20M if things go as planned.

[L54]

Do you guys really expect AA to lock up both Edwin and Bautista past 2016 to 20M+ per year? There's just no feasible way that happens (without a massive payroll increase).

[BTS]

Lol come on BTS. You can't sit here and say the 2017 payroll is looking brutal, then quote 3 contracts that aren't even signed.

 

Sure I can. Competing in 2017 will require payroll to blow past 150. You can let Bautista/Edwin walk, but the team will suck.

[TheHurl]

Yeah. It just isn't feasible to commit another 20+ million in 2017 right now. As things stand we're already probably going to lose Edwin or Jose if payroll is staying under 150.

 

so hard to say what a team is going to look like in future years or whether moves even make sense...but right now their window is this year and next.

[BTS]

so hard to say what a team is going to look like in future years or whether moves even make sense...but right now their window is this year and next.

 

That's the way I see it. The team looks legitimately good this year, and will probably still be good next year. But given age and projected salary of their best players, 2017 looks rough. A backloaded James Shields contract doesn't help at all.

[L54]

Sure I can. Competing in 2017 will require payroll to blow past 150. You can let Bautista/Edwin walk, but the team will suck.

 

You can, but it really doesn't make much sense, especially when one is James Shields.

 

Yes one of Bau/EE will probably walk. But the difference between 100M being on the books like you're saying and the more likely 60M is quite significant.

[Stangstag]

Sure I can. Competing in 2017 will require payroll to blow past 150. You can let Bautista/Edwin walk, but the team will suck.

 

Or... Trade one of Edwin/Bautista for prospects in their final year with us. We still have Donaldson, and by 2017 Travis and Pompey should both be above-average with the bat.

 

You're freaking out over nothing

[L54]

Or... Trade one of Edwin/Bautista for prospects in their final year with us. We still have Donaldson, and by 2017 Travis and Pompey should both be above-average with the bat.

 

You're freaking out over nothing

 

It's far more likely that they just let one of them walk. They will be planning on competing in 2016 as well, and dealing one of their star sluggers sends a bad message (even if it's the right call) to fans, and even ill informed players.

[CrackerJack]

for Alex still to be around in a year or two (or even three) from now, he knows he needs a new Jays banner hangin' inside the Rogers Centre pronto.

[TheHurl]

Do you guys really expect AA to lock up both Edwin and Bautista past 2016 to 20M+ per year? There's just no feasible way that happens (without a massive payroll increase).

 

If AA is still there...I'll assume at least one playoff appearance by then. And a nightmare off-season for even the best front offices.

[BTS]

You can, but it really doesn't make much sense, especially when one is James Shields.

 

Yes one of Bau/EE will probably walk. But the difference between 100M being on the books like you're saying and the more likely 60M is quite significant.

 

I think you're misunderstanding my point. I wasn't saying that the team will be full of albatross contracts in 2017. I was saying that maintaining this roster into 2017 is going to be impossible unless payroll is going up 20-30 M, and that's without a Shields contract on the books.

 

The only players expected to contribute in 2015 that won't be on FA contracts (or making 10+ M in arb) in 2017 are Pompey, Norris, Hutchsion, and Stroman.

[L54]

If AA is still there...I'll assume at least one playoff appearance by then. And a nightmare off-season for even the best front offices.

 

Semantics, I guess. Whether it's AA or not, I don't expect both to be here past 2016.

[Spanky99]

How about we sign Ogando and Crain, move Navarro for a reliever and call it a day.

[TheHurl]

I think you're misunderstanding my point. I wasn't saying that the team will be full of albatross contracts in 2017. I was saying that maintaining this roster into 2017 is going to be impossible unless payroll is going up 20-30 M, and that's without a Shields contract on the books.

 

The only players expected to contribute in 2015 that won't be on FA contracts (or making 10+ M in arb) in 2017 are Pompey, Norris, Hutchsion, and Stroman.

 

I just think in the end...the lack of bats on the farm makes the Shields move an overkill move. Trading assets for a Zobrist type would make so much more sense as far as upgrades go. I highly doubt the Jays FO is as high on Devout Dan as most here...but if a Shields signing means he barely contributes, it might not do that much to improve this team. I still think one utility guy that can start the season at 2B is the ultimate move for the Jays and deal with a short term rotation upgrade during the season when you know where the kids are.

[Brenner]

I think you're misunderstanding my point. I wasn't saying that the team will be full of albatross contracts in 2017. I was saying that maintaining this roster into 2017 is going to be impossible unless payroll is going up 20-30 M, and that's without a Shields contract on the books.

 

The only players expected to contribute in 2015 that won't be on FA contracts (or making 10+ M in arb) in 2017 are Pompey, Norris, Hutchsion, and Stroman.

 

But we'd only be interested in maintaining this roster if its good aka makes the playoffs, at which point who cares what it costs.

[L54]

I think you're misunderstanding my point. I wasn't saying that the team will be full of albatross contracts in 2017. I was saying that maintaining this roster into 2017 is going to be impossible unless payroll is going up 20-30 M, and that's without a Shields contract on the books.

 

The only players expected to contribute in 2015 that won't be on FA contracts (or making 10+ M in arb) in 2017 are Pompey, Norris, Hutchsion, and Stroman.

 

I can agree with this.

 

I've just always had the impression that it would be Jose OR Edwin past 2016 (probably Jose), not both.

 

Although it's not ideal, I'm sure the Jays would rather be in a situation where they're looking to add impact hitters through FA, and not impact SP. By 2017 you hope one of Hoffman or Osuna have established themselves as legitimate supplement options to the rotation, which consists of Stroman, Norris, Hutch and + +

[BTS]

But we'd only be interested in maintaining this roster if its good aka makes the playoffs, at which point who cares what it costs.

 

This is exactly the path that lead to the current day Mets and Phillies and Cubs of two years ago.

[BTS]

I can agree with this.

 

I've just always had the impression that it would be Jose OR Edwin past 2016 (probably Jose), not both.

 

Although it's not ideal, I'm sure the Jays would rather be in a situation where they're looking to add impact hitters through FA, and not impact SP. By 2017 you hope one of Hoffman or Osuna have established themselves as legitimate supplement options to the rotation, which consists of Stroman, Norris and Hutch.

 

More likely is that by 2017 Hoffman and Osuna have both turned into pumkins, one of the Norris/Hutch/Stroman trio sucks, another went down to TJS, and the third is awesome. I really wish the team's best prospects were hitters.

[L54]

More likely is that by 2017 Hoffman and Osuna have both turned into pumkins, one of the Norris/Hutch/Stroman trio sucks, another went down to TJS, and the third is awesome. I really wish the team's best prospects were hitters.

 

That's probably too pessimistic, compared to mine which may be overly optimistic.

 

If we met in the middle, that is still the makings of a cheap, young, effective and controllable rotation.

 

I'd rather the Jays grow their own pitching, supplementing it with bats through FA or trade. Not many marquee arms lining up to sign in Toronto.

[TheHurl]

This is exactly the path that lead to the current day Mets and Phillies and Cubs of two years ago.

 

Yeah but those teams aren't going to have 16M watching every night, and 51K on a Wednesday like the Jays will when they are playing meaningful games in September.

[BTS]

That's probably too pessimistic, compared to mine which may be overly optimistic.

 

If we met in the middle, that is still the makings of a cheap, young, effective and controllable rotation.

 

I'd rather the Jays grow their own pitching, supplementing it with bats through FA or trade. Not many marquee arms lining up to sign in Toronto.

 

I dunno, take any team's projected rotation entering 2013 and see how many of the protected 5 are legitimately solid starters now. For veteran proven rotations you might have 2. If two of Norris/Stroman/Hutchison/Hoffman/Osuna look like valuable rotation members (or like they will soon be in the case of the last two) the team has done well.