Jays interested in Holland

[TheHurl]

Can the thread title be changed to G. Holland so that no one (like me) thinks we're talking D. Holland?

 

I thought it was The Netherlands

[Key22]

Are there any articles about Bullpens not being important? Ease my mind on this. Maybe say - over the last 20 years which WS teams didn't have a shut down closer and set-up guy. Since we have neither - I'd kind of like to know which teams won a WS with a pen of scrap heap finds.

[BTS]

Are there any articles about Bullpens not being important? Ease my mind on this. Maybe say - over the last 20 years which WS teams didn't have a shut down closer and set-up guy. Since we have neither - I'd kind of like to know which teams won a WS with a pen of scrap heap finds.

 

The Giants this year...

[John_Havok]

AA might be simply inquiring, and someone latched on. Holland is a boss, no harm in checking in.

 

In previous off seasons, though, news like this would scare me. Really hope AA has turned a new leaf.

 

No kidding. His arbitration payday is going to be huge given that he's racked those all important saves over the past 2 seasons. And yes, Dude is a boss. Checking the leaderboard for relievers over the past 5 seasons, he's right up at the top with Chapman, Kimbrel etc in stats that matter.

[TheHurl]

The Giants this year...

 

Cards 2011, Cards 2006, White Sox 2005, Marlins 2003...

 

Not to mention how many of those "shut down" bullpen guys, weren't expected to be shutdown guys at the start of the season.

[Mikeleelop]

Would osuna be enough to get Royal interest?

[burlingtonbandit]

Would osuna be enough to get Royal interest?

 

Royals would probably want a piece closer to making an impact at the MLB level. If the Royals were to kick in money or take Romero back I would trade Osuna or Castro for Holland.

[BTS]

Would osuna be enough to get Royal interest?

 

Probably not.

[TheHurl]

Royals would probably want a piece closer to making an impact at the MLB level. If the Royals were to kick in money or take Romero back I would trade Osuna or Castro for Holland.

 

You aren't getting a team to kick in money when they have a below Free Agent market value contract.

[burlingtonbandit]

You aren't getting a team to kick in money when they have a below Free Agent market value contract.

 

I know and thats why I don't think a deal gets done. No way you can give up a Norris. Norris as the 5th starter and Sanchez in the bullpen helps the team way more even without taking salary into the equation.

[wamco]

Gomes+Aviles for Rogers, even when Gomes wasn't considered good, was a bad trade. Snider for Lyon, even though it doesn't look hideous in hindsight, was a bad trade. Napoli for Francisco, no matter when you look at it, was a really bad trade. Francisco Cordero on a 4.5M contract was a bad signing. I'm one of AA's biggest supporters, but his track record in acquiring relievers is really not the best.

 

snider for lyon wasn't actually a thing though. So there's that. I now see this was pointed out though.

[abola2121]

Cards 2011, Cards 2006, White Sox 2005, Marlins 2003...

 

Not to mention how many of those "shut down" bullpen guys, weren't expected to be shutdown guys at the start of the season.

 

The jays should roll the dice and start the year with Arik Sikula, John Stilson and Blake McFarland in the bullpen.

[Ehjays]

The jays should roll the dice and start the year with Arik Sikula, John Stilson and Blake McFarland in the bullpen.

 

If Stilson is still around....he could be claimed in the Rule V draft

[Deadpool]

If Stilson is still around....he could be claimed in the Rule V draft

 

Doubt he's healthy enough to get enough time on the big league roster of the claiming team.

[Key22]

BTS - what I am looking for is not a one year thing. 20 years and looking say at both teams that made the finals. That's 40 clubs and a percentage. Yes there will be an outlier but statistics is about playing the odds not the odd fluke.

 

If the Phillies had had Ward instead of Mitch the Wild Thing Williams chances are there would have been a game 7 and Carter may not have even come to the plate in the 9th. And of the teams that did win without a good pen was it because they had ridiculous starting pitching like one guy who wins three games.

 

See if we had Schilling and Johnson in their prime and I knew they were big time big game shut down pitchers (like Bumgarner was this year) then the pen might not matter - but does anyone here really see Dickey or Beurhle going 9 innings against the best teams in must win games. Hutchison and a sophomore in Stroman and a rookie in Sanchez?

 

The pen is magnified when your rotation lacks complete game stoppers.

 

San Fran had Romo and Castillo and Machi - ALL THREE had a season WHIP under 1 which is shut down stopper material. Castillo had a .177 average against - that's pretty elite from the bullpen. 23 saves and a 1.70 ERA. 4 saves in the postseason with a 0.68 WHIP and .083 avg against.

 

If that's a bad 1,2,3 at the end of their pen then our pen is little league quality.

[Nox]

Stuff in a long winded post

 

Your thinking is flawed.

 

You shouldn't be looking at World Series winners and trying to find common traits among them. That injects a destructive amount of selection bias and you lose a ton of information. Your line of reasoning follows very closely with that of Jim Collins' business books (Built to Last, Good to Great etc) which are among the worst pieces of non-fiction ever published and widely consumed.

[GD]

If the Phillies had had Ward instead of Mitch the Wild Thing Williams chances are there would have been a game 7 and Carter may not have even come to the plate in the 9th. And of the teams that did win without a good pen was it because they had ridiculous starting pitching like one guy who wins three games.

 

As if Nox's post needed any building upon, I'd like to add that had the Phillies had a better offense, their lead may have been insurmountable, or a better SP performance, etc. Any number of things could have changed, but since the bullpen was the one that ultimately gave it up it's focused on more. A win is a win is a win and all that jazz.

[Jimcanuck]

As if Nox's post needed any building upon, I'd like to add that had the Phillies had a better offense, their lead may have been insurmountable, or a better SP performance, etc. Any number of things could have changed, but since the bullpen was the one that ultimately gave it up it's focused on more. A win is a win is a win and all that jazz.

 

Agree.

 

However, I have a real hankering for the days of Ward and Henke. If the Jays had the lead after 7 innings of play, the game was over. So much easier on the starters.

[RIPEXPOS]

Anyone discounting the value of a good bullpen should read up on Win Probability Added.

[Jimcanuck]

Ya...those were some great times. The problem is that relievers are so volatile. You could pay through the nose for a couple of guys that you're convinced are your 'Ward & Henke' and they could just as easily crap the bed. It's just a really scary proposition. But ya, having those lights out power arms in the pen sure gives you a great feeling when you're through 6 and you've got a lead.

 

Sanchez ~ Ward

Holland ~ Henke

 

Already halfway there!

 

Being facetious here. Sanchez needs to be starting in Buffalo and available when needed for the rotation.

[GD]

Anyone discounting the value of a good bullpen should read up on Win Probability Added.

 

How many IP does it stabilize at?

[BTS]

Anyone discounting the value of a good bullpen should read up on Win Probability Added.

 

Nobody is discounting the value of a good bullpen. It's valuable - we saw that with KC this year. It's just that planning to have a good bullpen is really hard, and big investments in relievers is more often than not a very inefficient expenditure of assets.

[RealAccountant]

Give them Norris but make sure you get both Holland and Wade Davis back. Then our bullpen is even better :-)

[Captain Adama]

Give them Norris but make sure you get both Holland and Wade Davis back. Then our bullpen is even better :-)

 

Yeah...no.

[GD]

Give them Norris but make sure you get both Holland and Wade Davis back. Then our bullpen is even better :-)

 

Why have a young stud starter when you could have two relievers taking up $16 million in payroll at like $8M per win?

[Key22]

I realize there are many different avenues to win but you need to look at the whole thing - great pitching shuts down great hitting in the playoffs. Hitting over the course of the year is great at pounding other team's Dana Eveland's but even when the Jays were "great" other teams shut them completely down when there was an ace on the other team's hill pitching well.

 

So if you want to try and win with a horrible bullpen that's fine - show me some examples that in the majority of cases teams make the playoffs and proceed to win them with horrible pens. San Fran was the lone cited example and it turns out the three back end guys were elite all season and in the playoffs. All three were much better than anyone we had.

 

If you want to argue that there are other ways to win - such as the rotation - fine - but our rotation is pretty mediocre. No ace - no number 2 and not much depth. Estrada, Redmond - yikes.

[Chappy]

Sanchez and Norris are not depth?

[BTS]

I realize there are many different avenues to win but you need to look at the whole thing - great pitching shuts down great hitting in the playoffs. Hitting over the course of the year is great at pounding other team's Dana Eveland's but even when the Jays were "great" other teams shut them completely down when there was an ace on the other team's hill pitching well.

 

So if you want to try and win with a horrible bullpen that's fine - show me some examples that in the majority of cases teams make the playoffs and proceed to win them with horrible pens. San Fran was the lone cited example and it turns out the three back end guys were elite all season and in the playoffs. All three were much better than anyone we had.

 

If you want to argue that there are other ways to win - such as the rotation - fine - but our rotation is pretty mediocre. No ace - no number 2 and not much depth. Estrada, Redmond - yikes.

 

This isn't true. SF's pen is mediocre at best. Cecil is better than anyone they have.

[GreekFatAss]

I would only offer up Norris for Zimmerman.

[Stangstag]

This isn't true. SF's pen is mediocre at best. Cecil is better than anyone they have.

 

SF had one of the worst bullpens in baseball IIRC. It's just that the had Bumgarner so they didn't need to use their bullpen too much during the playoffs.