Jays Trade Happ for Saunders

[TwistedLogic]

I think he meant Miller and Robertson for 26M per year for 5 years ... same as Lester

 

Well then to that I gotta say that 130M over 5 years for two relievers is just not a very good use of your assets at all. Not even a little bit.

[saskjayfan]

JA Happ had a very good second half. I hope he can continue, but with the move and the smoak move we cleared salary and we now have room to see if Sanchez or Norris run with the opportunity. Estrada provides depth. The big thing that I see is that there are a whole number of quality pitchers with one year left before free agency. Come the deadline we have a lot prospects to acquire a starter if need be.

[Jimcanuck]

Norris is probably equal to him right now, if not better. Plus you have Estrada and Sanchez.

 

Possibly. At least with Happ you know what you are getting. My comment is that he was not excess. Jays now do not have enough SP depth. How many pitchers make more than 5 starts for a team in a given year.

[Iggy]

Well then to that I gotta say that 130M over 5 years for two relievers is just not a very good use of your assets at all. Not even a little bit.

 

I totally agree ... but combined Miller + Robertson will probably get ~ 22M per year but only for 4 years

[TwistedLogic]

JA Happ had a very good second half. I hope he can continue, but with the move and the smoak move we cleared salary and we now have room to see if Sanchez or Norris run with the opportunity. Estrada provides depth. The big thing that I see is that there are a whole number of quality pitchers with one year left before free agency. Come the deadline we have a lot prospects to acquire a starter if need be.

 

These are usually the worst trades every year. I really hate the idea of giving up a considerable amount of talent for three months of a player. Just absolutely hate trade deadline rentals and they're almost never worth it. You don't even get a draft pick if they leave.

[saskjayfan]

These are usually the worst trades every year. I really hate the idea of giving up a considerable amount of talent for three months of a player. Just absolutely hate trade deadline rentals and they're almost never worth it. You don't even get a draft pick if they leave.

 

depending on who they trade for they may be able to resign the player. The Jays have Ricky Romero and buehrle coming off the books at the end of the year, but I understand what you are saying. Sometimes you have to go for it. It didn't work out for the As last year though.

[closetjaysfan]

HOLYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUCK

 

AA's BAAAAAAAAAACK WOOOOW!!!

 

also holy f*** fatcow is back... that must have been the longest f***ing exam in human history.

[closetjaysfan]

 

 

I'd also really appreciate if they would dump Estrada on somebody. I get why people like him on the depth, but you can bring in someone like Beachy or Medlen for the same price. Estrada's skill set doesn't play to the dome, and he was terrible last year.

 

 

Estrada reminds me of a Brian Talllet type pick up. Lame starter, only real value is as long relief in a blowout with a BP short on rest.

[Key22]

This is a good trade in and of itself but some things to consider thus far.

 

JA Happ was a serviceable 160 inning 5th starter. Melky was a very solid 2 hole hitter with a bit below average defense. Saunders has the best upside and is cheaper but Saunders did cost us Happ and it means we won;t sign Melky - so essentially we lose Melky AND Happ for Saunders.

 

So yes Saunders replaces Melky but Happ is now a pretty big hit to the rotation and/or depth and also loses a trade chip.

 

Being realistic - the elite free agents won't sign here without an overpay.

 

My earlier note of Robertson/Miller was mainly due to the fact that while closers are overrated in terms of war - they're not in games where you need to win "that game." Ie do you want to make it to the playoffs or do you actually want a good chance to win once you are there. There's a pretty big difference between Robertson and Miller striking out guys at over 13K per 9 and Casey Janssen at 5.5 K/9. You tend to be playing the best teams with the better hitters in low scoring games and with bases loaded 1 out do you want Miller and his 15k/9 coming in or the much more hittable Janssen/most middle relievers.

 

Ideally we would sign a quality starter and one of Miller or Robertson - I am not so sure a 4 year deal is so bad for a closer. After 2 years they'll be easy enough to trade assuming they don't get hurt but you could sign Lester and 3 pitches into opening day his arm could explode. So those are the risks.

 

Team needs a closer and at least 2 other shut down relievers at least as good as Loup. More-so if we have a rotation banking on Stroman to be the Ace and Sanchez to be some kind of savior.

[labadee]

This is a good trade in and of itself but some things to consider thus far.

 

JA Happ was a serviceable 160 inning 5th starter. Melky was a very solid 2 hole hitter with a bit below average defense. Saunders has the best upside and is cheaper but Saunders did cost us Happ and it means we won;t sign Melky - so essentially we lose Melky AND Happ for Saunders.

 

So yes Saunders replaces Melky but Happ is now a pretty big hit to the rotation and/or depth and also loses a trade chip.

 

Being realistic - the elite free agents won't sign here without an overpay.

 

My earlier note of Robertson/Miller was mainly due to the fact that while closers are overrated in terms of war - they're not in games where you need to win "that game." Ie do you want to make it to the playoffs or do you actually want a good chance to win once you are there. There's a pretty big difference between Robertson and Miller striking out guys at over 13K per 9 and Casey Janssen at 5.5 K/9. You tend to be playing the best teams with the better hitters in low scoring games and with bases loaded 1 out do you want Miller and his 15k/9 coming in or the much more hittable Janssen/most middle relievers.

 

Ideally we would sign a quality starter and one of Miller or Robertson - I am not so sure a 4 year deal is so bad for a closer. After 2 years they'll be easy enough to trade assuming they don't get hurt but you could sign Lester and 3 pitches into opening day his arm could explode. So those are the risks.

 

Team needs a closer and at least 2 other shut down relievers at least as good as Loup. More-so if we have a rotation banking on Stroman to be the Ace and Sanchez to be some kind of savior.

 

we saved money by not signing melky, and we don't know how AA is gonna use that. So with your logic, not signing Melky and trading JA Happ got us Saunders + whoever else AA brings in. This aint over yet.

[Ziggyy108]

Im a huge Seahawks fan and I listen to ESPN Seattle Podcasts sometimes and one of the hosts was saying how he thought a lot of the injuries Saunders suffered were because Saunders was always playing all out and in a prove it state and he was always doing whatever it took to show he belonged.

 

Talking really highly of the guy after covering him for his career.

 

Just one guys opinion but thought it was interesting.

[Key22]

we saved money by not signing melky, and we don't know how AA is gonna use that. So with your logic, not signing Melky and trading JA Happ got us Saunders + whoever else AA brings in. This aint over yet.

 

Of course you are correct - as it sits now it is Melky and Happ >>>> Saunders + nothing. In order for this to be a net win to the team we need to see what replaces the "nothing."

 

In (Donaldson, Saunders, Martin, Travis, Estrada, Smoak).

 

Out (Lawrie, Melky, Lind, Rasmus, Janssen, Happ, Gose, Santos, Morrow, Graveman, Nolin, McGowan, Bareto).

 

I guess I am still not seeing a hugely upgraded team. We gain the big bat with Donaldson but lose a bat in CF and lose with Lind and lose with Melky. Gibbons says Saunders is a bottom third hitter so we lose a number 2 hitter for a number 7 hitter.

 

I am waiting on the pitching because without upgrades to the rotation and the pen everything else is naval gazing. Not convinced we have a true number 2 starter let alone a number one, and the only pen arms I have confidence in are Cecil and Loup. The rest are swing man guys.

 

I don't see the Jays landing Lester, Scherzer, Shields, Miller, or Robertson and thus I will be curious to see how AA will land us a starting pitcher better than anyone we currently have (and we need) and 3-4 bullpen arms the equal of our two lefties (and an actual shut down closer). This is the AL East - second rate filler isn't good enough - relying on a rooking like Sanchez to step in and be a closer or an ace is asking a bit much.

 

The AL East - kind of like the Untouchables - They bring a knife we bring a gun - they bring a gun we bring a tank. That's the way this goes and you know the Yankees are going to get one of Miller/Robertson AND one of Lester/Scherzer if not all 4. (apparently word is they can spend $500 million on payroll and still make money - even with the luxury tax) - Pitching wins. Matching them with K-Rod or some number 4 starter is laughable.

 

Jays gotta move the needle to $170-$180 million if they really want to do it this year. They gotta be the ones who sign one of Lester/Scherzer and one of Miller/Robertson - and even then they'd still need 2 other relief arms. Lay the gauntlet down and dig in.

[TwistedLogic]

Of course you are correct - as it sits now it is Melky and Happ >>>> Saunders + nothing. In order for this to be a net win to the team we need to see what replaces the "nothing."

 

In (Donaldson, Saunders, Martin, Travis, Estrada, Smoak).

 

Out (Lawrie, Melky, Lind, Rasmus, Janssen, Happ, Gose, Santos, Morrow, Graveman, Nolin, McGowan, Bareto).

 

I guess I am still not seeing a hugely upgraded team. We gain the big bat with Donaldson but lose a bat in CF and lose with Lind and lose with Melky. Gibbons says Saunders is a bottom third hitter so we lose a number 2 hitter for a number 7 hitter.

 

Even if you're being generous, the "out" is what, 11 wins? Lawrie (3), Melky (2), Lind (1.5), Happ (1.5), Gose (1), Rasmus (1), Janssen (.5), everyone else (.5)?

 

Being very conservative, Donaldson (5), Martin (5), Saunders (2) and Smoak (1) alone give you 13 wins. That actually unfairly assumes that Donaldson and Martin will negatively regress despite moving to a better park. That's also not even counting for anything Travis might do, and excludes Estrada completely. And the Jays aren't even done yet.

 

Yes, this is a considerably better team. Taking health and payroll into account, it's a monumentally better team. In 2015, Donaldson, Martin, Saunders and Smoak in total will make as much as Morrow and Rasmus alone made in 2014.

[43211234]

Even if you're being generous, the "out" is what, 11 wins? Lawrie (3), Melky (2), Lind (1.5), Happ (1.5), Gose (1), Rasmus (1), Janssen (.5), everyone else (.5)?

 

Being very conservative, Donaldson (5), Martin (5), Saunders (2) and Smoak (1) alone give you 13 wins. That actually unfairly assumes that Donaldson and Martin will negatively regress despite moving to a better park. That's also not even counting for anything Travis might do, and excludes Estrada completely. And the Jays aren't even done yet.

 

Yes, this is a considerably better team. Taking health and payroll into account, it's a monumentally better team. In 2015, Donaldson, Martin, Saunders and Smoak in total will make as much as Morrow and Rasmus alone made in 2014.

 

In this case you'd also have to consider the in-house replacements for exiting players. Pompey (1), Norris (1) are also conservative expectations. This team is clearly better right now, and as you said, they aren't done yet.

[Olerud363]

This is a good trade in and of itself but some things to consider thus far.

 

JA Happ was a serviceable 160 inning 5th starter. Melky was a very solid 2 hole hitter with a bit below average defense. Saunders has the best upside and is cheaper but Saunders did cost us Happ and it means we won;t sign Melky - so essentially we lose Melky AND Happ for Saunders.

 

So yes Saunders replaces Melky but Happ is now a pretty big hit to the rotation and/or depth and also loses a trade chip.

 

Being realistic - the elite free agents won't sign here without an overpay.

 

My earlier note of Robertson/Miller was mainly due to the fact that while closers are overrated in terms of war - they're not in games where you need to win "that game." Ie do you want to make it to the playoffs or do you actually want a good chance to win once you are there. There's a pretty big difference between Robertson and Miller striking out guys at over 13K per 9 and Casey Janssen at 5.5 K/9. You tend to be playing the best teams with the better hitters in low scoring games and with bases loaded 1 out do you want Miller and his 15k/9 coming in or the much more hittable Janssen/most middle relievers.

 

Ideally we would sign a quality starter and one of Miller or Robertson - I am not so sure a 4 year deal is so bad for a closer. After 2 years they'll be easy enough to trade assuming they don't get hurt but you could sign Lester and 3 pitches into opening day his arm could explode. So those are the risks.

 

Team needs a closer and at least 2 other shut down relievers at least as good as Loup. More-so if we have a rotation banking on Stroman to be the Ace and Sanchez to be some kind of savior.

 

Hi Key

 

As I've mentioned to other posters the notion that one particular need is more important than another is silly. There are only runs scored, runs against, and wins. Whatever path leads to the best run differential which in turn leads to the most wins is the best path.

 

There are an infinite number of ways to win none more important than another. If relievers are available for the right price then sure we should take them... but if they are to expensive then pass.

 

We just saw a world series where Bumgarner piched the critical shut down innings, I remember in 2002 Schilling and Randy Johnson pitched important relief innings.

 

The playoffs are weird. If Stroman explodes on the league he could end starting playoff games and relieving critical innings. Jimmy key won the Jays 1992 world series clincher in relief.

 

WAR has a long history and is calibrated to accurately take into account "leverage" and assign the right value to relievers. If you think WAR overrates or underrates a player you need to write to the people who maintain the formulas. My suggestion is to start a post... explain why you think WAR underrates relievers, suggest modications to the formula and ask for some feedback.

[KingKat]

WAR has a long history and is calibrated to accurately take into account "leverage" and assign the right value to relievers.

 

Actually, I'm pretty sure WAR is context neutral and doesn't factor "leverage". For that you'd have to look at something like WPA (Win Probability Added).

[jb22]

Of course you are correct - as it sits now it is Melky and Happ >>>> Saunders + nothing. In order for this to be a net win to the team we need to see what replaces the "nothing."

 

In (Donaldson, Saunders, Martin, Travis, Estrada, Smoak).

 

Out (Lawrie, Melky, Lind, Rasmus, Janssen, Happ, Gose, Santos, Morrow, Graveman, Nolin, McGowan, Bareto).

 

I guess I am still not seeing a hugely upgraded team. We gain the big bat with Donaldson but lose a bat in CF and lose with Lind and lose with Melky. Gibbons says Saunders is a bottom third hitter so we lose a number 2 hitter for a number 7 hitter.

 

I am waiting on the pitching because without upgrades to the rotation and the pen everything else is naval gazing. Not convinced we have a true number 2 starter let alone a number one, and the only pen arms I have confidence in are Cecil and Loup. The rest are swing man guys.

 

I don't see the Jays landing Lester, Scherzer, Shields, Miller, or Robertson and thus I will be curious to see how AA will land us a starting pitcher better than anyone we currently have (and we need) and 3-4 bullpen arms the equal of our two lefties (and an actual shut down closer). This is the AL East - second rate filler isn't good enough - relying on a rooking like Sanchez to step in and be a closer or an ace is asking a bit much.

 

The AL East - kind of like the Untouchables - They bring a knife we bring a gun - they bring a gun we bring a tank. That's the way this goes and you know the Yankees are going to get one of Miller/Robertson AND one of Lester/Scherzer if not all 4. (apparently word is they can spend $500 million on payroll and still make money - even with the luxury tax) - Pitching wins. Matching them with K-Rod or some number 4 starter is laughable.

 

Jays gotta move the needle to $170-$180 million if they really want to do it this year. They gotta be the ones who sign one of Lester/Scherzer and one of Miller/Robertson - and even then they'd still need 2 other relief arms. Lay the gauntlet down and dig in.

 

I really hope they dont pay proven closer money and/or prospects for anyone. Just take your best reliever and put him in that role. I'd also hope they could find more efficient ways to add wins than paying a reliever(s) $10MM+ AAV.

[Olerud363]

Actually, I'm pretty sure WAR is context neutral and doesn't factor "leverage". For that you'd have to look at something like WPA (Win Probability Added).

 

That's the kind of stuff I come to this site for... It would be great to see more analysis and actual explanation of stats like WAR and less

 

"we need a proven closer because proven closers win"

 

"we need an proven ace because it is the only way to win in the playoffs"

[GD]

Even if you're being generous, the "out" is what, 11 wins? Lawrie (3), Melky (2), Lind (1.5), Happ (1.5), Gose (1), Rasmus (1), Janssen (.5), everyone else (.5)?

 

Being very conservative, Donaldson (5), Martin (5), Saunders (2) and Smoak (1) alone give you 13 wins. That actually unfairly assumes that Donaldson and Martin will negatively regress despite moving to a better park. That's also not even counting for anything Travis might do, and excludes Estrada completely. And the Jays aren't even done yet.

 

Yes, this is a considerably better team. Taking health and payroll into account, it's a monumentally better team. In 2015, Donaldson, Martin, Saunders and Smoak in total will make as much as Morrow and Rasmus alone made in 2014.

 

Janssen is likely 0, not 0.5, imo.

[KingKat]

Some WAR calculations do include leverage.

 

Which ones?

[Key22]

I just read an article about the teams who made the playoffs. In 2013 the 6 best team ERA were the teams that made the playoffs - in the other league it was 5 and the other team was 7th. Team ERA consistently shows who makes the playoffs and who does not assuming the runs scored is not completely rubbish. The Jays probably have more than enough offense to win a world series. Is the team ERA going to be top 6? IMO and considering at least recent history of ERA to playoff contention it better be.

 

Shi noted

 

"Six of the top 10 big-league teams in bullpen ERA reached the post-season, and the three playoff clubs with the worst relief corps (St. Louis 18th, Dodgers 22nd, Detroit 27th) were eliminated in no small part because of that."

 

Virtually all statistics need a large sample size. Baseball is wonderful for this predicting wins based on player stats but it is quite useless in a short series of small sample sizes. This is where macro level stats (season long) get traded for micro (single game/series) inning to inning performance.

 

We have all seen line-ups with a bunch of hitters who are all 3+ war performers and big time mashers go up against a Cliff Lee or a Roy Halladay and get 1 hit or no hit. We have seen teams with second rate relievers get pounded for 6 runs late in must win playoff games.

 

There are also a host of non statistical reasons why a shut down closer can help a team. A it takes the pressure of the starter and the offense. You score 2 runs in the 8th for a 6-4 lead and you know you have Mariano Rivera coming in. Now you can head to the plate less tense - maybe you score another 3. If you have some mediocre bum warming up you grip that bat a little tighter and you try to pop the 3 run bomb(which wind up as a pop up) instead of hitting the ball the other way to score 1 and keep the line moving because hey you got Rivera and the game is over. How do you track the "value" this has to a ball club?

 

From the pitching side, when I pitched and knew my closer was available that day - it allowed me to pitch to contact - ahh get int trouble with 5-1 lead I had a guy who came in and mowed people down. If he's not there and the other guys were gas cans I knew that 4 runs could disappear real fast - forces you to pitch to the corners - walk more and could screw up your game - eat more pitches etc.

 

Jays fans always talk about how unimportant relievers are - but the only time we've ever won jack s*** was when our bullpen was the envy of all baseball. Well/Ward/Henke/Timlin and yes Jimmey Key. I know a win is a win and a loss is a loss - but as a player it always sucked worse to lose late leads - when you're always playing tense late because you know that even a 3 run lead isn't safe. It's wearing on players over the long haul.

[Olerud363]

Virtually all statistics need a large sample size. Baseball is wonderful for this predicting wins based on player stats but it is quite useless in a short series of small sample sizes. This is where macro level stats (season long) get traded for micro (single game/series) inning to inning performance.

 

SanFrancisco won the world series with the 14th rated bullpen in the NL

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=nl&qual=0&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

ERA isn't everything. When you adjust for park and defense San Francisco's bullpen isn't that good.

 

There is no reason to change your style depending what the bullpen is like. If you have a 5-1 lead you pitch using the strategy that will lead to the least runs given up.

 

No major league pitcher is going to give up runs because he knows a closer can rescue him. These guys are competitors and are concerned about both winning and stats (and contracts). The best stats lead to the most winning.

 

Strategy 1 - pitch to contact - presumably this will lead to more hits.

Strategy 2 - be careful - presumably this will lead to more walks.

 

Why the hell is one better then the other?? Pitch to the strategy that give us the least runs.

[G-Snarls]

[bronson44]

Andrew Stoeten retweeted

Jason A. Churchill ‏@ProspectInsider 19h19 hours ago

Happ is due $6.7m in 2015. Divish tells @1090TheFan that TOR is chipping in, perhaps as much the difference between Saunders-Happ deals.

[Nox]

Which ones?

 

Mostly for relievers:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained_comparison.shtml

[KingKat]

Mostly for relievers:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained_comparison.shtml

 

So basically everyone adjusts for reliever leverage except Baseball Prospectus WARP. That's very interesting. Because high leverage relievers still don't accrue that many WARs, I would have guessed it wasn't even counted.

[Westfan]

Every team in baseball wants starters like Lester but damn few would give him 150 mil. And Stroman projects to give as many wins as Shields. I think we need a starter but McCarthy type seems best.

Jays need a couple of BP pieces no doubt but man the reliever market is crazy. Seems like a 0.5 war reliever wants 5 or 6 million. I just don't want to wind up like the Tigers the last two years

[burlingtonbandit]

Andrew Stoeten retweeted

Jason A. Churchill ‏@ProspectInsider 19h19 hours ago

Happ is due $6.7m in 2015. Divish tells @1090TheFan that TOR is chipping in, perhaps as much the difference between Saunders-Happ deals.

 

Even with cash included the deal is still a great one.

[scottishbluejay]

Disappointed to hear that Jays are chipping in for Happ. In my limited knowledge I thought that part of the positive of this trade was freeing up money.

 

What's the down-low with the cash? What actually was saved? Also does the idea that jays are paying for Happ change anyone's opinion on the deal or devalue it?

[Mikeleelop]

Disappointed to hear that Jays are chipping in for Happ. In my limited knowledge I thought that part of the positive of this trade was freeing up money.

 

What's the down-low with the cash? What actually was saved? Also does the idea that jays are paying for Happ change anyone's opinion on the deal or devalue it?

 

Still"saved money" because Saunders is less costly than Cabrera would have been. Now how much $ will the jays spend?

 

Still like the trade