Predict AA's Next Move

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

1) sign Shields, 4-5y at 20 to 22.5 mill, 2) sign Luke Gregson 3-4y at 6-7.5mill. 3) sign Millar 4y at 8-10 mill. Or if not millar

 

Maybe Segio Romo 3-4y at 6-7 mill.

[GD]

Kevin Millar ...?

[Governator]

1) sign Shields, 4-5y at 20 to 22.5 mill, 2) sign Luke Gregson 3-4y at 6-7.5mill. 3) sign Millar 4y at 8-10 mill. Or if not millar

 

Maybe Segio Romo 3-4y at 6-7 mill.

 

Jays can't afford anything close to that.

[Governator]

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/toronto-blue-jays-may-not-have-the-payroll-to-sign-melky-cabrera/

 

 

Jays may not have the payroll to sign Cabrera

 

Shi Davidi

December 1, 2014, 5:34 PM

 

 

TORONTO – The endgame between the Toronto Blue Jays and Melky Cabrera is probably coming soon, and the perception that Alex Anthopoulos is sitting on a significant cache of payroll to spend may not be the case as the moment of truth looms.

 

Where the final number for the free-agent outfielder lands is unclear, although the $57-million, four-year agreement Nelson Cruz reached with the Seattle Mariners combined with the $53-million, four-year deal the St. Louis Cardinals handed Jhonny Peralta last year might offer a rough guideline.

 

If that’s the case – and we’ll get to why it might not be later – the Blue Jays are unlikely to have enough room in the budget for Cabrera because things are starting to get pretty tight.

 

Worth keeping in mind as you consider the numbers is perhaps Anthopoulos heavily backloaded Russ Martin’s $82-million, five-year deal because he had to, not because he wanted to maintain payroll flexibility for other moves. And that part of Josh Donaldson’s appeal is that at a projected $4.5 million arbitration hit for 2015, he is a very reasonably priced middle of the order bat.

 

As things stand now, the Blue Jays have $108.2 million committed to 11 players, a figure that jumps to about $128 million when you factor in projections for their seven arbitration-eligible players, including Donaldson. Add another $2-$3 million for 0-3 service time players, and that leaves $9-$10 million to seek upgrades at left field, second base and the bullpen presuming a payroll of $140 million.

 

Barring salary-clearing deals for Dioner Navarro and/or J.A. Happ, there’s no room for Cabrera under such a scenario.

 

Even if the Blue Jays did move either of them, each would leave holes in their wake, Navarro as DH/catcher and Happ thinning out a pitching staff already down two depth pieces in Sean Nolin and Kendall Graveman, both dealt to the Oakland Athletics as part of the Donaldson trade.

 

None of that rules out the possibility of another significant transaction, but calculus is much more complicated for Anthopoulos from here on out.

 

A debate can be had on whether the Blue Jays are best served by piling their remaining dollars into one more significant player and riding in-house assets elsewhere, or spreading it around for a wider range of incremental gains.

 

For instance, Cabrera’s price could reasonably be pegged beneath that of Peralta – who provides offence at a premium position, shortstop – and Cruz – who hits home runs. If that happens and he prices out in their salary range, are the Blue Jays better off bringing him back, or spreading the dough around?

 

Internal options available to Anthopoulos include an Andy Dirks/John Mayberry Jr., platoon in left field, a Maicer Izturis/Ryan Goins platoon at second base while prospect Devon Travis seasons, and some combination of Edwin Encarnacion/Navarro/Justin Smoak/Danny Valencia at first base and DH.

 

The Blue Jays also have a stash of potential bullpen arms, but likely not the elite relievers a team with designs on the post-season requires.

 

Remember that Anthopoulos has focused on the bullpen – 12th in the AL with a 4.09 ERA – as a key area of failure in 2014. With Casey Janssen, Sergio Santos and Dustin McGowan all gone from last year’s late-inning crew, and who knows what Steve Delabar will look like next spring, you’d think at least two more relievers with some prior success are needed to fill the void.

 

If the Blue Jays do get two relievers, will they then be out of money to get someone like free agent outfielder Nori Aoki, who’d be a perfect less-expensive fill-in for Cabrera in left field? Ideally they’d get someone that can also play centre field in case of injury or underperformance by Dalton Pompey or Kevin Pillar.

 

An everyday second baseman would be nice, too, and while the Blue Jays have done background work on Alberto Callaspo, as Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports tweeted Sunday night, they don’t appear to be locked in on him at all.

 

One other thing worth keeping in mind: Sportsnet colleague Jeff Blair suggests the Blue Jays might save some payroll money for the deadline, learning from this past July not to max out early. How might that factor into play?

 

Put all together, the Blue Jays in many ways still have their heavy lifting ahead of them.

 

Sure adding Donaldson and Martin makes them better, and replaces the lost offence from Adam Lind and, probably, Cabrera, but their primary needs at the beginning of the off-season are still their primary needs now.

 

Upgrading areas that were already set is an unusual way to improve a team, but when you factor in that Anthopoulos has also been changing the heartbeat of the club at the same time, the greater whole makes more sense.

 

The key now will be in finishing a job very well done so far, but not good enough just yet.

[Deadpool]

...that leaves $9-$10 million to seek upgrades at left field, second base and the bullpen presuming a payroll of $140 million.

 

Has a payroll cap of $140M actually been confirmed (or hinted at) anywhere? This is a pretty sub-par article from Davidi...

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

Ask yourself this what are the playoffs or World Series worth to the Jays and Rogers revenue wise?

 

Also they have the money for a Melky just think years may be a issue as well here!

 

Cheaper options in the system and availible still. Ie Suzuki Denorfia etc

 

They have been linked to Markakis too even recently!

 

Also no one knows what the budgeted payroll is capped at or if it is!

[Stangstag]

Whatever, im fine with not signing Melky. There are plenty of undervalued LF and 2B options that AA can go after. Saunders, Aoki, Ackley, Lowrie, Fowler, etc.

[z3r0s]

Acquire Saunders, Sign Lowrie for a few years. Maybe add a reliever or two.

 

Great OS.

[L54]

Ya exactly. There are better options that can be had for less. Allows for more money to be spent on the pen/2b/SP too.

 

Honestly, adding Saunders, McCarthy and a couple bullpen arms make me think this team has a legit post season shot. 2B is going to be Travis' come May anyhow. The only real question would be who backs up Reyes in the event of an injury (right now its probably Goins).

 

Realistically, AA probably makes a couple more moves. I just think those moves are better spent on LF/SP/BP than on 2B, when we have someone (hopefully) ready to step in who profiles to be at LEAST league average.

[burlingtonbandit]

Has a payroll cap of $140M actually been confirmed (or hinted at) anywhere? This is a pretty sub-par article from Davidi...

 

Not that exact number but everything would suggest around that number. Martin's deal was heavily backloaded for a reason and AA has said that they would have to get creative with money if they were to bring in a high $ FA.

[ineedsheet]

i don't think there's any evidence whatsoever that the payroll will be capped at 140 million. in fact, even if the payroll was to be 160 million, martin's contract being backloaded would still be necessary if we were going after someone like lester...

[z3r0s]

Ya exactly. There are better options that can be had for less. Allows for more money to be spent on the pen/2b/SP too.

 

Honestly, adding Saunders, McCarthy and a couple bullpen arms make me think this team has a legit post season shot. 2B is going to be Travis' come May anyhow. The only real question would be who backs up Reyes in the event of an injury (right now its probably Goins).

 

Realistically, AA probably makes a couple more moves. I just think those moves are better spent on LF/SP/BP than on 2B, when we have someone (hopefully) ready to step in who profiles to be at LEAST league average.

 

This is why Lowrie makes so much sense. Plays 2B until Travis is ready. Plays SS if Reyes goes down where he is actually pretty good.

[L54]

This is why Lowrie makes so much sense. Plays 2B until Travis is ready. Plays SS if Reyes goes down where he is actually pretty good.

 

Ya you're absolutely right. Lets Travis develop too, in case he isn't ready this year. No need to rush him in this scenario.

 

I still feel McCarthy is the exact type pitcher AA should be after, too. Pushes everyone down a spot on the depth chart (other than Stroman). Makes up for the hit they took with the Donaldson trade. Great peripherals, shouldn't cost a fortune. I don't ever feel confident predicting FA values, but a 3 year deal bridges the gap to guys like Norris, Hoffman, Osuna, Castro etc, while helping the staff this year.

[burlingtonbandit]

This is why Lowrie makes so much sense. Plays 2B until Travis is ready. Plays SS if Reyes goes down where he is actually pretty good.

 

If he takes a 1 year deal... But sounds like he is going to get at least 2 years, maybe 3 years. I agree he would be a good target for something like 2/24.

[SexyNewForum]

If he takes a 1 year deal... But sounds like he is going to get at least 2 years, maybe 3 years. I agree he would be a good target for something like 2/24.

 

I love the idea of Saunders

 

Go and get him AA

 

If you don't have money for a SP, I really like Lowrie

[JFD]

assuming we are near limit, I'd be ok with all remaining $$ allocated to building an elite BP and cheap options in the other holes.

 

score tons of runs and lock it down in the late innings. that's how Baltimore did it last year.

[canadiansportsjunkie]

Well AA has crossed another off the wish list here...we should keep it updated just in case he's reading!

 

1. Lowrie - Just makes too much sense

2. Bullpen - Grilli / Roberston / Miller - Biggest hole?

3. Shields - Huge fan of him, we have depth but need a workhorse top SP

[G-Snarls]

Acquire Saunders, Sign Lowrie for a few years. Maybe add a reliever or two.

 

Great OS.

 

Bam

[baloojayz]

IMHO Aces provide value in spades when they are drafted and signed to reasonable terms by the same team (obviously heh?).

 

From what I have seen, either in free agency or via trade, it just isn't worth it (going after aces) mainly due to the durability of SP and their ability to sustain the same level of success. I'd much rather go after a solid #3 pitcher and sign him to a good contract while everyone is chasing the big guys and go for a shut down bullpen. If for no other reason, it will be a LOT cheaper than trying to build the perfect starting rotation, it will never be good enough, and we are close to this "budget" ceiling. We have enough depth in the case of injury assuming we sign one SP here.

 

One thing I'm sure everyone saw last year, Dickey was really good up until the 5th inning. With a strong BP he would look even better if we could pull him after the 5th every now and then when he isn't looking relaxed. I know we got him to be a 7 inning ace or w/e, but moving forward (can't do nothing about the past), improving the bullpen would help all our SP (just as signing Martin helps ALL pitchers and is crazily under-rated for that reason).

 

Looking at the strengths of the club so far, its clearly offence and the bats. It would be much better to complement that with a good BP that can contribute everyday versus a SP that pitches every 5 days; especially considering a few of the games this ace pitches could be blowouts given our bats and it wouldn't matter who was pitching.

 

Playoffs ofcourse are a slightly different beast, but even aces like Lester and Shields didn't fare too well anyways.

[Iggy]

With the Jays now having only 36 players on their 40-man roster I wonder:

 

1) If they have players they plan to pick up in the Rule 5 draft or

 

2) What players non-tendered a contract that they are interested in ... E.Cabrera, Beckham, Blanks, Medlen, Beachy, Ogando

[L54]

With the Jays now having only 36 players on their 40-man roster I wonder:

 

1) If they have players they plan to pick up in the Rule 5 draft or

 

2) What players non-tendered a contract that they are interested in ... E.Cabrera, Beckham, Blanks, Medlen, Beachy, Ogando

 

I don't know much about the health of Medlen, Beachy or Ogando, but all of those guys seem to make sense. So does Cabrera I guess to a certain extent.

[ScientificReason]

His next move is an 8-ball of coke, high end escort and a big ass party.

[G-Snarls]

So far Jays best off season according to Sports on Earth:

 

http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/103128256/mlb-offseason-teams-trending-upward-and-downward?partnerId=ed-8831912-658620023

 

FIVE TRENDING UPWARD

 

Blue Jays

2014 wins: 83

Offseason wins acquired: +9.7

 

The Blue Jays have had one of the loudest offseasons in all of baseball thus far. They landed Josh Donaldson (7.4 WAR) in a trade with the A's, and they added Russell Martin (5.5) through free agency. They also pulled off a trade with the Mariners Wednesday night, adding a win by shipping J.A. Happ (1.4) to Seattle for Michael Saunders (2.4).

 

But the Blue Jays' sky-high WAR among the players they've added is almost certainly set to drop a bit. Assuming they traded for Saunders because they are conceding that Melky Cabrera and Colby Rasmus will be headed elsewhere, their WAR will decline by four when the outfield pair officially depart. Toronto may also lose closer Casey Janssen, and for as much as they've added in terms of offense, it was the pitching staff -- with an ERA of 4.00 -- that was their biggest downfall last year.

[Mikeleelop]

trade Osuna to Cubs for Valuenaba....

[GD]

trade Osuna to Cubs for Valuenaba....

 

No thank you

[nutz003]

Interesting article on recently non-tendered player Everth Cabrera. He was one that I thought based on his stats would be a good pick-up at low cost for the Jays, but after finding out a little more about him in this article, he sounds like he would be a cancer in the clubhouse, have lots of trouble off the field, and doesn't have the sort of work ethic that one hopes for in a professional athlete. The link is below. Classic example of more to signing a guy and the impact he would have on a team than just his stats.

http://lasordaslair.com/2014/12/04/everth-cabrera-plague/

[TheHurl]

No thank you

 

Valbuena is the perfect fit for this team though. Keep hanging on to your fat pitcher but Valbuena makes so much sense.

[Jimcanuck]

Interesting article on recently non-tendered player Everth Cabrera. He was one that I thought based on his stats would be a good pick-up at low cost for the Jays, but after finding out a little more about him in this article, he sounds like he would be a cancer in the clubhouse, have lots of trouble off the field, and doesn't have the sort of work ethic that one hopes for in a professional athlete. The link is below. Classic example of more to signing a guy and the impact he would have on a team than just his stats.

http://lasordaslair.com/2014/12/04/everth-cabrera-plague/

 

The perfect AA pre-2014 pickup

[Frenchsoup]

Valbuena is the perfect fit for this team though. Keep hanging on to your fat pitcher but Valbuena makes so much sense.

 

Osuna isn't fat anymore.

[burlingtonbandit]

Interesting article on recently non-tendered player Everth Cabrera. He was one that I thought based on his stats would be a good pick-up at low cost for the Jays, but after finding out a little more about him in this article, he sounds like he would be a cancer in the clubhouse, have lots of trouble off the field, and doesn't have the sort of work ethic that one hopes for in a professional athlete. The link is below. Classic example of more to signing a guy and the impact he would have on a team than just his stats.

http://lasordaslair.com/2014/12/04/everth-cabrera-plague/

 

Yeah i don't want him. Not only has he not had a good year without roids but a DUI and domestic violence charge scream stay away. I don't think you want anyone associated with domestic violence on this team.