Jays get Josh Donaldson for Lawrie, Graveman, Nolin and Barreto

[Olerud363]

Yeah, you're right. Having 5 starters throwing almost 1000 innings and putting up almost 12 WAR is totally the result of their ballpark... Glad you cleared that up for me.

 

 

I am Smokey, I am legion, I have made an alliance with Moogie, we kill engineers, we destroy numbers, we define our own reality.

 

2012 Giants - top 5 players 22 WAR, top 5 pitchers 12 WAR., 4th in batting WAR, 19th in pitching WAR

 

Smokey "they were a pithcing team, 19 and 4 are just numbers, Moogie and I do not use numbers, we define reality by our dominating forum posts"

 

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2012&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2012&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

[Olerud363]

Yeah, you're right. Having 5 starters throwing almost 1000 innings and putting up almost 12 WAR is totally the result of their ballpark... Glad you cleared that up for me.

 

Dear Smokie

 

The 2014 Toronto Blue Jays starters (Dickey, Buerhle, Stroman, Hutch and J.A. Happ had ~ 11 WAR. This is very comparable to the Sanfran Giants 2012 rotation. I ask a question?? Why did the Giants win the World Series while the 2014 Blue Jays went no where??

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=14&rost=0&age=0

[KingKat]

I am Smokey, I am legion, I have made an alliance with Moogie, we kill engineers, we destroy numbers, we define our own reality.

 

2012 Giants - top 5 players 22 WAR, top 5 pitchers 12 WAR., 4th in batting WAR, 19th in pitching WAR

 

Smokey "they were a pithcing team, 19 and 4 are just numbers, Moogie and I do not use numbers, we define reality by our dominating forum posts"

 

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2012&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2012&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

Dude, argue your point if you want but cut the crazy. Just because Smokey made some half hearted defense of Moogie doesn't make him Moogie. They are nothing like each other and becoming Moogie conspiracy theorists just feeds Moogie's own narrative that were obsessed with him.

[GD]

The 2012 Giants played in a historic pitchers park and had a 3.65 era. They had a horrible Tim Lincecum. Bumgarner was average that year (adjusted for park)

 

Their era+ was 0.96, meaning pitching was below average adjusted for park

 

Some parks are hitters parks, some parks are pitchers are parks (AT&T)

 

Adjusted for AT&T the 2012 Giants did not have great pitching

 

AT&T is Coors field in the opposite direction. People don't seem to realize this.

 

Michael Cuddyer - the people understand his stats are inflated

 

Bumgarner - clutch super-dude on par with the greats -- no Bumgarner is the CarGo of pitching, good but park-adjustments need to be made

 

101 xFIP-. Bumgarner was great, Lincecum and Cain were average, Vogelsong was bad. Zito was horrific.

 

You have a point here. Smokey does too though, the durability was impressive. The skill was average though.

[Frag]

I just meant he's regressing a bit. Will probably end up at around 7 WAR, not 10.

 

The highest single season WAR by a 3B: 9.7

 

1973 Darrell Evans

2004 Adrian Beltre

 

Number of 3B with 7+ WAR seasons in the history of baseball: 81.

[Olerud363]

Dear Smokie

 

The 2014 Toronto Blue Jays starters (Dickey, Buerhle, Stroman, Hutch and J.A. Happ had ~ 11 WAR. This is very comparable to the Sanfran Giants 2012 rotation. I ask a question?? Why did the Giants win the World Series while the 2014 Blue Jays went no where??

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=14&rost=0&age=0

 

Dear Smokie

 

After looking at the Stats closer it seems 2012 Giants and 2014 Jays are actually quite close in terms of pitching and hitting WAR.

 

2014 Jays 23.4 batting, 11.6 pitching, -8.8 defense (UZR)

2012 Giants 28.4 batting, 13.3 pitching, 16.3 defense (UZR)

 

Since UCR has a range of ~ -75 to +75 the defense difference isn't as much as it seems

 

2012 Giants were 5 WAR better then 2014 Blue Jays in hitting

2012 Giants were 2 WAR better the 2014 Blue jays in pitching

2012 Giant were better at defense

 

Every factor contributes to the championship. But if we use logic and numbers we can see that the 2014 giants were more of a hitting team then pitching team.

[KingKat]

The highest single season WAR by a 3B: 9.7

 

1973 Darrell Evans

2004 Adrian Beltre

 

Number of 3B with 7+ WAR seasons in the history of baseball: 81.

 

81 players or 81 seasons?

[Olerud363]

101 xFIP-. Bumgarner was great, Lincecum and Cain were average, Vogelsong was bad. Zito was horrific.

 

You have a point here. Smokey does too though, the durability was impressive. The skill was average though.

 

I don't want to be a jerk here, but 2012 Giants pitching is comparable to 2014 Jays. Jays had durable pitchers in Buerhle, Dickey, Hutch, lights out Stroman. Happ could of pitched 200 innings to if he didn't get hit in the head.

 

Those guys would look great pitching in AT&T with a slightly better offense and defense.

 

People don't see it because they still don't get park factors and defense.

 

It's frustrating. It should be obvious that AT&T greatly effects the stats... but people don't seem to get it. If I bring up a perfectly sensible point (2012 Giants pitching = 2014 jays) I get flamed and have to go to the advanced stats and 20 stupid posts.

 

It frustrates me...

[Frag]

81 players or 81 seasons?

 

Number of players, many of whom are the same players (eg. A-Rod, Mike Schmidt, etc.).

[Olerud363]

Yeah, you're right. Having 5 starters throwing almost 1000 innings and putting up almost 12 WAR is totally the result of their ballpark... Glad you cleared that up for me.

 

I apolagize for being a jerk. My point is a pretty simple one... AT&T is the Coors field of pitching.

 

It seems to me people intuitively understand the effect of Coors but not AT&T

 

2014 Jays starters and 2012 Giants are amazingly similar... but hidden by park, defense and slightly better run support (in context of park)

[Atothe]

I don't want to be a jerk here, but 2012 Giants pitching is comparable to 2014 Jays. Jays had durable pitchers in Buerhle, Dickey, Hutch, lights out Stroman. Happ could of pitched 200 innings to if he didn't get hit in the head.

 

Those guys would look great pitching in AT&T with a slightly better offense and defense.

 

People don't see it because they still don't get park factors and defense.

 

It's frustrating. It should be obvious that AT&T greatly effects the stats... but people don't seem to get it. If I bring up a perfectly sensible point (2012 Giants pitching = 2014 jays) I get flamed and have to go to the advanced stats and 20 stupid posts.

 

It frustrates me...

 

I get what you're saying.

[dineke]

I don't want to be a jerk here, but 2012 Giants pitching is comparable to 2014 Jays. Jays had durable pitchers in Buerhle, Dickey, Hutch, lights out Stroman. Happ could of pitched 200 innings to if he didn't get hit in the head.

 

Those guys would look great pitching in AT&T with a slightly better offense and defense.

 

People don't see it because they still don't get park factors and defense.

 

It's frustrating. It should be obvious that AT&T greatly effects the stats... but people don't seem to get it. If I bring up a perfectly sensible point (2012 Giants pitching = 2014 jays) I get flamed and have to go to the advanced stats and 20 stupid posts.

 

It frustrates me...

 

I dunno about that, you only get flamed for not using advanced stats here...

[pickoff22]

I don't want to be a jerk here, but 2012 Giants pitching is comparable to 2014 Jays. Jays had durable pitchers in Buerhle, Dickey, Hutch, lights out Stroman. Happ could of pitched 200 innings to if he didn't get hit in the head.

 

Those guys would look great pitching in AT&T with a slightly better offense and defense.

 

People don't see it because they still don't get park factors and defense.

 

It's frustrating. It should be obvious that AT&T greatly effects the stats... but people seem to get it. If I bring up a perfectly sensible point (2012 Giants pitching = 2014 jays) I get flamed and have to go to the advanced stats and 20 stupid posts.

 

It frustrates me...

 

If it makes you feel better I see your point. Even if you look at when they really turned it on that year (August onward) it's not like their pitching started to dominate.

[KingKat]

Number of players, many of whom are the same players (eg. A-Rod, Mike Schmidt, etc.).

 

So basically number or seasons by a 3B. Sorry to be anal about this but I think it's a meaningful distinction. They aren't 81 Josh Donaldson's in the history of baseball. There may have been 81 Josh Donaldson type seasons but the number of 3B capable of putting up such a season is less than 81.

[Frag]

So basically number or seasons by a 3B. Sorry to be anal about this but I think it's a meaningful distinction. They aren't 81 Josh Donaldson's in the history of baseball. There may have been 81 Josh Donaldson type seasons but the number of 3B capable of putting up such a season is less than 81.

 

Precisely. A better term would be player-seasons.

[Captain Adama]

I just meant he's regressing a bit. Will probably end up at around 7 WAR, not 10.

 

I bet Lawrie (if healthy) will end up at 4, not 0

 

All I am saying is that what looked like 10-0, 3 weeks ago, now looks like it will end up at 7-4 or something.

 

The path for the As to win the trade is a healthy Lawrie, Gravemen and Nolin contribute to the As 2016 playoff runs,

 

Barretto and the prospects gained from trading Lawrie high lead to 2019, 2020, and 2021 run

 

meanwhile we are starting post "30 years without playoffs"

 

I'm gonna hold my breath on lawrie continuing his batting line when his peripherals are atrocious and his BABIP is insanely high. (his xBABIP is .321)

 

Holy f*** run-on sentence. Olerud must be rubbing off on me.

[Dick_Pole]

I think you are underestimating the impact of a healthy Brett Lawrie...

 

Basically Lawrie is a 25 year old ~4 WAR guy if healthy, Donaldson a 29 year old ~6WAR guy

 

The differences between them are exagerated right now. As the cool kids are saying these days it will regress...

 

If healthy there is always a chance a 26 year old Lawrie out performs a 30 year old Donaldson

 

Even if Lawrie becomes outstandingly good next year, his pay day is coming soon....sooner than Donaldson's

 

Really the only way the A's could ever win this trade is if Lawrie pulls off something like 8 WAR next year then they trade him. Even if Barreto really progresses well and becomes a stud prospect, well there's nothing stopping the Jays from trading Donaldson for a stud prospect and two back-end starter types and sign Lawrie 2-3 years from now.

[Smokey]

Holy f***ing s***. Take some deep breaths and get a hold of yourself man.

 

You seem to enjoy taking things out of context and isolating things in order to reach a narrative. Yesterday I was simply arguing that this team needs some pitching help in order to have a realistic chance and you replied by saying the 87 Twins and the 93 Jays did it without pitching and even the 2012 Giants pitching was not great. Well, if you want to ignore the reliability factor and isolate the environment and defense in order to assess the true talent level of that staff, then be my guest. It doesn't change the fact that the number of innings thrown helped their BP stay fresh and with the help of their park and great defense they were able to get the job done. Having that rotation, regardless of how you assess them, would have been a significant improvement to what we have right now.

 

The 2014 Jays, which I have no idea why you're bring up in this discussion, could have possibly achieved better results and were something like 10 games above .500 at points but chose not to address important needs, played some terrible defence and let the wheels fall off despite the emergence of Stroman. You're comparing apples and oranges here.

 

The fact remains that this rotation is holding the team back and needs to be improved. We wouldn't be saying that right now if the 2012 version of Cain and Bumgarner were on this staff (despite all the help their numbers have received from the humongous park they play in).

Edited June 25, 2015 by Smokey

[L54]

Lol looks like Olerud is up to his old tricks speaking in hypotheticals again.

 

Yes, everyone here knows how the A's operate. Yes there is a chance the four of them out WAR Donaldson over their careers. Do you trade them for four below market value years of an MVP candidate? Every time.

[Orgfiller]

I need the f*** you suck my cock gif. f*** you suck my cock if you ignore this message.

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=Josh+donaldson+f***+you+suck+my+cock

[thatoneguy]

Still the best f***ing thread to read.

[Ehjays]

Great trade!!

[Stangstag]

AL MVP award incoming

[ElNik2013]

1 year ago.

 

Jays would have good SP depth if they hadn't made this trade though

[ElNik2013]

What would Donaldson fetch in a trade a year later?

[BallsDeep]

1 year ago.

 

Jays would have good SP depth if they hadn't made this trade though

 

Yeah. Having depth instead of a MVP.

[Frag]

1 year ago.

 

Jays would have good SP depth if they hadn't made this trade though

 

Lol

[BTS]

What would Donaldson fetch in a trade a year later?

 

Everything

[L54]

Sell.

[ElNik2013]

Lol.