Jays get Josh Donaldson for Lawrie, Graveman, Nolin and Barreto

[RealAccountant]

And yet they're only 2.5 games out.

 

At this stage of the season standings are meaningless. I think last year at this time we were 5 games up

[RealAccountant]

He pulled a 180 in his plan=Beeston.

 

P.S. Same thing happened to JPR

 

Strong assumptions there trying to reflect blame

 

If my GM is weak enough to get talked into baseball moves by a CPA than how useful.is he anyways

[Olerud363]

Donaldson will not be used as a tool to get prospects.

 

Baseless projections like that on Lawrie, Barretto and Graveman make me laugh. But since BB traded for them they must be good.

 

We are 1/3 of the way through the season...

 

Donaldson has played out of his mind. As great of a third of a season as possible. He has done everything he can and yet his team-mates have let him down. If this continues I can see Donaldson blowing up. This could be like the Clemens years. Clemens was the best player in baseball... the rest of the team not so much. It led to rancid terrible feelings, and eventually Clemens leaving for minimal return.

 

Meanwhile

 

Lawrie has played about as bad as we've seen him... perhaps the worst 2 months he could have (k/bb ratio horrible, d bad)... but has stayed healthy and seems to be coming around. A .280 20 homer season could happen (assuming health).

 

Barretto started as slow as a prospect can but is coming around and holding his own as a 19 year old in a+.

 

Gravemen, turning it around after what was really 1 terrible game, Nolin healthy and could contribute at some point.

 

A's may make a surprise run this year... or maybe just develop for next year.

 

Scenarios exist where this trade leads to playoff appearances for the As. Their fans get happiness..,.

 

While the Donaldson years parrallel the Clemens years. A terribly unhealthy franchise with one star... Donaldson's complaints about inferior team-mates lead him out of town for minimual return, while we watch the As go to the playoffs.

[Angrioter]

Brett Lawrie grand slam, 7th HR

+12 wRC+

[43211234]

Brett Lawrie grand slam, 7th HR

+12 wRC+

 

Meh, walks down, strikeouts up. Babip inflated

[Laika]

Brett Lawrie grand slam, 7th HR

+12 wRC+

 

http://i.imgur.com/ra5He.gif

[Angrioter]

Meh, walks down, strikeouts up. Babip inflated

 

Are you Mexican?

 

I thought you cheer for the Canadians,

[Olerud363]

We are 1/3 of the way through the season...

 

Donaldson has played out of his mind. As great of a third of a season as possible.

 

Meanwhile

 

Lawrie has played about as bad as we've seen him... perhaps the worst 2 months he could have (k/bb ratio horrible, d bad)... but has stayed healthy and seems to be coming around. A .280 20 homer season could happen (assuming health).

 

Barretto started as slow as a prospect can but is coming around and holding his own as a 19 year old in a+.

 

Gravemen, turning it around after what was really 1 terrible game, Nolin healthy and could contribute at some point.

 

Scenarios exist where this trade leads to playoff appearances for the As. Their fans get happiness..,.

 

 

It is now June 25th. In only 3 weeks my scenario has gone from hypothetical to "on track"

 

3 weeks ago Lawrie was nobody, now he is on track for the .280 20 homer season

 

3 weeks ago Gravemen was garbage but is turning it around

 

3 weeks ago Josh Donaldson was Mike Schmidt in his prime, now he is merely very good.

 

Things change fast. Billy Beane is not stupid

 

3 weeks ago... AA had 1 genius trade ripping off the great Billy Beane.

 

3 weeks ago AA- pure genius (for the one trade)

 

today - the trade is looking more even.

[Atothe]

Olerud is having an identity crisis

[RealAccountant]

Graveman isn't turning around anything

 

It I'll be the hitters turning on his pathetic fastball

[Deadpool]

[Orgfiller]

It is now June 25th. In only 3 weeks my scenario has gone from hypothetical to "on track"

 

3 weeks ago Lawrie was nobody, now he is on track for the .280 20 homer season

 

3 weeks ago Gravemen was garbage but is turning it around

 

3 weeks ago Josh Donaldson was Mike Schmidt in his prime, now he is merely very good.

 

Things change fast. Billy Beane is not stupid

 

3 weeks ago... AA had 1 genius trade ripping off the great Billy Beane.

 

3 weeks ago AA- pure genius (for the one trade)

 

today - the trade is looking more even.

 

Merely very good? Lolwut

[Smokey]

Olerud is having an identity crisis

 

Poor guy is losing his marbles. I'm still waiting for him to explain how he came to the conclusion that the 2012 Giants "did not have great pitching"...

[NorthOf49]

Barreto has turned it around too, now has a league-average line as a 19-year-old in high-A. Graveman has made four straight legitimately good starts. Throwing strikes and getting batters to swing through pitches.

 

Josh Donaldson is amazing but it's not like this trade sank the A's.

[Olerud363]

Olerud is having an identity crisis

 

?? Not sure why I am having an identity crisis. I've brought this up a couple of times before.

 

3 weeks ago you would hear that the Donaldson trade made up for a lot of AAs mistakes. Donaldson was on track to out-WAR the other guys 10-0 this year.

 

Lawrie and Gravemen have turned it around. You can see the path for the As to win the trade big time. Lawrie stays healthy and keeps pace with Donaldson, Gravemen and Nolin are starters, Barretto regains top prospect status.

[BigCecil]

?? Not sure why I am having an identity crisis. I've brought this up a couple of times before.

 

3 weeks ago you would hear that the Donaldson trade made up for a lot of AAs mistakes. Donaldson was on track to out-WAR the other guys 10-0 this year.

 

Lawrie and Gravemen have turned it around. You can see the path for the As to win the trade big time. Lawrie stays healthy and keeps pace with Donaldson, Gravemen and Nolin are starters, Barretto regains top prospect status.

I was a fan of him but Lawrie staying healthy is a big question mark and I don't see him "keeping pace" with JD. This deal wasn't horrible for As but I would still make it all day long if I was Jays. JD is in rarified air value wise.

[KingKat]

?? Not sure why I am having an identity crisis. I've brought this up a couple of times before.

 

3 weeks ago you would hear that the Donaldson trade made up for a lot of AAs mistakes. Donaldson was on track to out-WAR the other guys 10-0 this year.

 

Lawrie and Gravemen have turned it around. You can see the path for the As to win the trade big time. Lawrie stays healthy and keeps pace with Donaldson, Gravemen and Nolin are starters, Barretto regains top prospect status.

 

I really don't see a path for the A's to "win the trade big time". Even if Lawrie + Graveman + Nolin were to collectively out WAR Donaldson, there's far less value in having that WAR value divided amongst three guys. You can find guys that individually provide the value that Lawrie, Nolin and Graveman will produce but you can't find guys like Donaldson. He is a basebal unicorn. Guys that good with affordable control are practically non existant and the ones that do exist do not get traded. There's no way the A's can win this trade short term. There's a chance (not a great one IMO) that they win long term with Barreto.

[Olerud363]

Poor guy is losing his marbles. I'm still waiting for him to explain how he came to the conclusion that the 2012 Giants "did not have great pitching"...

 

 

The 2012 Giants played in a historic pitchers park and had a 3.65 era. They had a horrible Tim Lincecum. Bumgarner was average that year (adjusted for park)

 

Their era+ was 0.96, meaning pitching was below average adjusted for park

 

Some parks are hitters parks, some parks are pitchers are parks (AT&T)

 

Adjusted for AT&T the 2012 Giants did not have great pitching

 

AT&T is Coors field in the opposite direction. People don't seem to realize this.

 

Michael Cuddyer - the people understand his stats are inflated

 

Bumgarner - clutch super-dude on par with the greats -- no Bumgarner is the CarGo of pitching, good but park-adjustments need to be made

[pickoff22]

No matter what, as a Jays fan you would make this trade 100% of the time under the same circumstances. Everything has to go right for the A's for them to "win" this trade.....and even then with the type of production and years we can expect to get from JD, I doubt any fan will feel bad about the trade in the future. Not sure if anyone would say Beane got fleeced for this move, but it sure was puzzling. No top prospects involved, really just a bunch of potential along with an MLB ready player who never lived up to his own potential. You have to wonder what he could have gotten had JD had been openly shopped to other teams. You have to think the prospect haul could have been much greater.

[pickoff22]

I really don't see a path for the A's to "win the trade big time". Even if Lawrie + Graveman + Nolin were to collectively out WAR Donaldson, there's far less value in having that WAR value divided amongst three guys. You can find guys that individually provide the value that Lawrie, Nolin and Graveman will produce but you can't find guys like Donaldson. He is a basebal unicorn. Guys that good with affordable control are practically non existant and the ones that do exist do not get traded. There's no way the A's can win this trade short term. There's a chance (not a great one IMO) that they win long term with Barreto.

 

Very well put.

[Olerud363]

I really don't see a path for the A's to "win the trade big time". Even if Lawrie + Graveman + Nolin were to collectively out WAR Donaldson, there's far less value in having that WAR value divided amongst three guys. You can find guys that individually provide the value that Lawrie, Nolin and Graveman will produce but you can't find guys like Donaldson. He is a basebal unicorn. Guys that good with affordable control are practically non existant and the ones that do exist do not get traded. There's no way the A's can win this trade short term. There's a chance (not a great one IMO) that they win long term with Barreto.

 

I think you are underestimating the impact of a healthy Brett Lawrie...

 

Basically Lawrie is a 25 year old ~4 WAR guy if healthy, Donaldson a 29 year old ~6WAR guy

 

The differences between them are exagerated right now. As the cool kids are saying these days it will regress...

 

If healthy there is always a chance a 26 year old Lawrie out performs a 30 year old Donaldson

[KingKat]

 

If healthy there is always a chance a 26 year old Lawrie out performs a 30 year old Donaldson

 

I'll believe that one when I see it.

[pickoff22]

I think you are underestimating the impact of a healthy Brett Lawrie...

 

Basically Lawrie is a 25 year old ~4 WAR guy if healthy, Donaldson a 29 year old ~6WAR guy

 

The differences between them are exagerated right now. As the cool kids are saying these days it will regress...

 

If healthy there is always a chance a 26 year old Lawrie out performs a 30 year old Donaldson

 

 

Sure there's a chance, but the odds certainly aren't in his favour. And the A's get one less year of him no matter what. Plus JD is likely going to be >6 WAR while Brett is likely going to be <4 WAR even when healthy.

[Frag]

Josh Donaldson is the best 3B in baseball, and his contract is team-friendly. It's amazing we got him for Lawrie, Nolin, Graveman, and Barreto.

[Olerud363]

Merely very good? Lolwut

 

I just meant he's regressing a bit. Will probably end up at around 7 WAR, not 10.

 

I bet Lawrie (if healthy) will end up at 4, not 0

 

All I am saying is that what looked like 10-0, 3 weeks ago, now looks like it will end up at 7-4 or something.

 

The path for the As to win the trade is a healthy Lawrie, Gravemen and Nolin contribute to the As 2016 playoff runs,

 

Barretto and the prospects gained from trading Lawrie high lead to 2019, 2020, and 2021 run

 

meanwhile we are starting post "30 years without playoffs"

[o2cui2i]

Josh Donaldson is the best 3B in baseball, and his contract is team-friendly. It's amazing we got him for Lawrie, Nolin, Graveman, and Barreto.

 

it's amazing that any team would give up Donaldson when he had so many control years left.

[Smokey]

The 2012 Giants played in a historic pitchers park and had a 3.65 era. They had a horrible Tim Lincecum. Bumgarner was average that year (adjusted for park)

 

Their era+ was 0.96, meaning pitching was below average adjusted for park

 

Some parks are hitters parks, some parks are pitchers are parks (AT&T)

 

Adjusted for AT&T the 2012 Giants did not have great pitching

 

AT&T is Coors field in the opposite direction. People don't seem to realize this.

 

Michael Cuddyer - the people understand his stats are inflated

 

Bumgarner - clutch super-dude on par with the greats -- no Bumgarner is the CarGo of pitching, good but park-adjustments need to be made

 

Yeah, you're right. Having 5 starters throwing almost 1000 innings and putting up almost 12 WAR is totally the result of their ballpark... Glad you cleared that up for me.

[pickoff22]

it's amazing that any team would give up Donaldson when he had so many control years left.

 

Especially when you look at what they go back. I would be very curious to know what packages they could have gotten elsewhere. I bet 95% of GMs would have assumed they would have been laughed at had they asked about his availability.

[RealAccountant]

Donaldson is only just good because he is only going to end up at 7 WAR, only

[RealAccountant]

I just meant he's regressing a bit. Will probably end up at around 7 WAR, not 10.

 

I bet Lawrie (if healthy) will end up at 4, not 0

 

All I am saying is that what looked like 10-0, 3 weeks ago, now looks like it will end up at 7-4 or something.

 

The path for the As to win the trade is a healthy Lawrie, Gravemen and Nolin contribute to the As 2016 playoff runs,

 

Barretto and the prospects gained from trading Lawrie high lead to 2019, 2020, and 2021 run

 

meanwhile we are starting post "30 years without playoffs"

 

Lawrie has never reached 3 WAR let alone 4