Would you make a straight trade of Drew Hutchison for Justin Upton?

[TwistedLogic]

I saw this proposal mentioned in some podcast somewhere and was just wondering the general opinion behind a move like this. Kind of in the Miller/Heyward mould, though probably a lot closer, with Upton being worse than Heyward, and Hutch being better than Miller.

 

---

Justin Upton

Contract details

 

http://i.gyazo.com/4c228d338500825fbc6973ac8ecafe0e.png

 

Last three years, 2015 projection, career totals

 

http://i.gyazo.com/075d69f860d9426dfec5040d27c32e38.png

 

---

 

Drew Hutchison

 

Contract details

 

http://i.gyazo.com/8d98086e577b163c690db11eb46982f6.png

 

Last three years, 2015 projection, career totals

 

http://i.gyazo.com/03d914521649edfadf669a4698a419e8.png

 

---

Edited November 19, 2014 by TwistedLogic

[Candide]

I saw this proposal mentioned in some podcast somewhere and was just wondering the general opinion behind a move like this. Kind of in the Miller/Heyward mould, though probably a lot closer, with Upton being worse than Heyward, and Hutch being better than Miller.

 

Drew Hutchison | Justin Upton

 

Justin Upton the 6 WAR player, yes. But I don't think he'll ever hit that 5-6 WAR level ever again. what happened to his baserunning?

[Ziggyy108]

Heyward woulda been sweet.

[Angrioter]

Upton for Hutchison not make sense for the Braves.

[TwistedLogic]

Upton for Hutchison not make sense for the Braves.

 

It's a purely hypothetical scenario. Had they not made the Heyward/Miller trade, it would make sense for them.

 

Just assume that there are no other factors involved, and only judge the trade itself.

[Jimcanuck]

Hutch for Starlin makes more sense for the Jays (and the Cubbies)

 

Throw in Navarro if you have to for a B prospect back

[Angrioter]

It's a purely hypothetical scenario. Had they not made the Heyward/Miller trade, it would make sense for them.

 

Just assume that there are no other factors involved, and only judge the trade itself.

 

Heyward is awesome, but Upton is better.

Miller >> Hutchison

[Spanky99]

Yes, absof***inglurely.

[Spanky99]

*absolutely*

[sdyment]

Not a fan of dealing Hutch... Rather see Sanchez be first dealt, but I realize that his value isn't comparable to Hutch's.

[Deadpool]

I'm supposed to explain in the comments, so... uhh... I'd move anyone in the appropriate multi-player deal. I don't have an example of what I'd actually want as a return (and to send out), I just woke up...

[saskjayfan]

You'd have to be retarded to deal Hutch for one year of Upton.

 

The cardinals just made the exact same trade...I guess they are dumn. Personally I wouldn't make the trade, but I could see either side of the argument.

[RealAccountant]

Didn't Upton already decline a trade to the Jays? I know he has already declined a few trades

 

I wouldn't want somebody who doesn't want to be here

[Dr. Dinger]

Of course.

[Angrioter]

Hutch >> Miller

 

I don't think so.

 

23 Hutchison 1st complete season 2014: 3.85 FIP - 3.80 xFIP (8.97 K, 2.92 BB, 1.12 HR)/9 and 36.1% GB

22 Shel Miller 1st complete season 2013: 3.67 FIP - 3.73 xFIP (8.78 K, 2.96 BB, 1.04 HR)/9 and 38.4% GB

 

But Miller ceiling!!

[Frenchsoup]

I don't think so.

 

23 Hutchison 1st complete season 2014: 3.85 FIP - 3.80 xFIP (8.97 K, 2.92 BB, 1.12 HR)/9 and 36.1% GB

22 Shel Miller 1st complete season 2013: 3.67 FIP - 3.73 xFIP (8.78 K, 2.96 BB, 1.04 HR)/9 and 38.4% GB

 

But Miller ceiling!!

 

Didn't someone say Miller spat on a fan? I mean that's pretty bad. Hutch for me all day talent wise and character wise. Remember Hutch is in the AL East pitching to Navarro and Miller was in the NL Central pitching to Yadier.

[SAAviour]

I'm too intrigued by hutch being another year removed from surgery, plus another year of experience, plus pitching to Martin now to lose him for 1 year of a player.

[reedjohnsonfan]

I do not think I would make that trade, but I agree with Ang that I like Miller more than Hutch. Going forward I think Miller has the better career, although Hutch is definitely the safer option.

[Atothe]

I would not. I 100% believe Upton will resign

[Mikeleelop]

I do not think I would make that trade, but I agree with Ang that I like Miller more than Hutch. Going forward I think Miller has the better career, although Hutch is definitely the safer option.

 

I don't think that Hutch is that "safe" option. One TJ surgery usually means a second one some time down the road. When will that be ??

 

Rolling the dice like you do with any pitcher I guess, but guys who have already had a TJ carry more risk

[Captain Adama]

If Upton came with even a short extension I do this trade in a heartbeat. Otherwise hutch's years of control is too valuable.

[NorthOf49]

I don't think people saying "Yes" understand the years of control involved. I'm a big Upton fan but you'd only get one fairly expensive year.

[KingKat]

I don't think people saying "Yes" understand the years of control involved. I'm a big Upton fan but you'd only get one fairly expensive year.

 

Yeah I voted a knee jerk yes but I'd change my vote if I could because once you break down the contracts, it doesn't work.

[LongTimeReader]

"The chances of a complete recovery after the modern surgery are estimated at 85 to 90 percent." - http://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Tommy_John_surgery

 

"124 Major League Baseball pitchers and counting had Tommy John surgery." (1994-2010) - http://tommyjohninformation.weebly.com/statistics-and-percentages.html

 

A few pitchers have had three TJS and still been okay after (Jason Isringhausen, Jose Rijo).

[TwistedLogic]

I don't think people saying "Yes" understand the years of control involved. I'm a big Upton fan but you'd only get one fairly expensive year.

 

I did put down the contract/control terms in the OP for that reason, since it does make an exponential impact on the value of the trade, but I guess it's still possible that people voted without reading.

[guylaroche5]

i would never pull the trigger on that trade. with martin catching him next year i see hutch's value appreciating barring a brutal injury

[GD]

i would never pull the trigger on that trade. with martin catching him next year i see hutch's value appreciating barring a brutal injury

 

That value should really be attributed to Martin, though

[burlingtonbandit]

That value should really be attributed to Martin, though

 

It won't though. We haven't gotten to the point where there is a stat that takes pitcher's performances that adjusts for catcher's abilities. I think Fangraphs is close though and even when it comes out there will be a lot of people weary how accurate it is.

[baseballsss]

I don't think people saying "Yes" understand the years of control involved. I'm a big Upton fan but you'd only get one fairly expensive year.

 

The orignal posts clearly said the trade is based on a player to player trade nothing else factoring in. Clearly everyone saying no didn't read the question.

[saskjayfan]

Hutch 3.82 xFIP, 3.51 SIERA with Navarro the s***** ass framer

Miller 4.47 xFIP, 4.60 SIERA with Yadier Molina catching him

 

It's not even close.

 

that steamer you seem to post about so often has hutch projected to post a 4.12 FIP next year and Miller to post a 4.2 FIP and Miller posted a 3.61 SIERA in 2013. I would say that's relatively close, or maybe that steamer you mention quite often is way off base.