Saunders to replace melky?

[GeorgiaPeach]

Gose/Pillar in CF and Pompey in LF. The end.

 

I thought you wanted to watch winning baseball?

[Laika]

Melky will be a DH in two years, or worse playing LF worse than DH adjustment.

 

Yeah, he's basically Delmon Young three or four years from now, IMO.

[Jimcanuck]

Gose/Pillar in CF and Pompey in LF. The end.

 

Gose CF, Pompey LF for RH pitching

Pompey CF, Mayberry Jr LF for LH pitching

 

Want no part of Pillar other than AAAA depth

[BTS]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/10/free-agent-profile-melky-cabrera.html

 

MLBTR is predicting a 5-Year 66mil contract for Melky. If he gets that, and its not with the Jays, who would not have to surrender a pick, Jays fans should burn down the Rogers Centre. This is less than the QO would be AAV wise, he'd be 34 (Jose Bautista's age now) when the contract was up, and it fits within their asinine 5-year contract limit. If the Jays are actually serious about fielding a contender, and this is the deal that Melky signs elsewhere, no apologist alive should be able to calm down Jays fans.

 

This would be a very, very bad signing.

[SAAviour]

I guarantee my man Alex A won't sign melky to a 5 year 66 million dollar contract! That's pure insanity, take the draft pick or the 1 year qualifying offer. Maybe 2 years with an option for year 3.

11 mil per.

[glory]

Having Pompey/Gose/Pillar taking up two OF spots won't be so bad if they used the saved money on a 2B and/or SP (dream scenario: go cheap in the OF and sign Fernandez).

 

But if those three are in OF and it's status quo everywhere else, then yeah, blow it up.

[TDotttt2005]

I guarantee my man Alex A won't sign melky to a 5 year 66 million dollar contract! That's pure insanity, take the draft pick or the 1 year qualifying offer. Maybe 2 years with an option for year 3.

11 mil per.

 

I am surprised the sentiment here is really against this. Say we are conservative and we say $6 million per win average over the next 5 seasons, thats 11 wins from Melky over 5 seasons, or an average of 2.2 wins per season. I think that is completely doable, and as I stated before, dude will be 34 when the contract ends, not in his late 30's where you are pretty much guaranteed a dropoff. Bautista and Cruz (he of similar PED taint) are 34 now.

 

Ive wondered this before, and this makes me wonder again if the Toronto Rogers-run media is to blame for Jays fans being brainwashed to always think more about contract value than about winning the division. The goal is not to assemble a roster of 25 undervalued players. The goal is to win the division, and ultimately the world series. If you overpay by a few million add on a year of lower productivity, but you get a championship out of it, so be it, its an uncapped league. Flags fly forever. Not many Jays fans are lamenting the fact that Jack Morris sucked in '93 are they?

 

I dont think other fanbases are like this, really. Wilner always wonders why Jays fans believe they cannot have nice things. The reason why, is because apologists like him keep hammering into the fan base contract value / too much term / too many years...and have upped that sentiment re: Melky since they got inside word that negotiations were stalled, in order to take the blame off the team for any perception of them being cheap. And a lot of you fall for this. You think Yankee fans are crying about 8 years to Teixera after he led them to the World Series in '09? No. They expect their team to sign stars like that in order to win, and they expect them to sign more when they don't. They don't sit back and laugh when perennial playoff teams and world series contenders sign a guy to an extra couple years and extra couple mil to secure the deal like Jays fans do.

 

It'll be sad when AA comes out with his excuses, "we lined up on dollars, but we couldn't line up on term with the player", and you guys eat it up, and laugh at a team like Seattle or KC who will go the extra mile to sign a guy (KC with Vargas and Infante) to plug holes, meanwhile 6 months later, we're talking about the upcoming offseason, while their fans are watching their team in the playoffs.

 

/end rant.

Edited October 16, 2014 by TDotttt2005

[BTS]

I am surprised the sentiment here is really against this. Say we are conservative and we say $6 million per win average over the next 5 seasons, thats 11 wins from Melky over 5 seasons, or an average of 2.2 wins per season. I think that is completely doable, and as I stated before, dude will be 34 when the contract ends, not in his late 30's where you are pretty much guaranteed a dropoff. Bautista and Cruz (he of similar PED taint) are 34 now.

 

Ive wondered this before, and this makes me wonder again if the Toronto Rogers-run media is to blame for Jays fans being brainwashed to always think more about contract value than about winning the division. The goal is not to assemble a roster of 25 undervalued players. The goal is to win the division, and ultimately the world series. If you overpay by a few million add on a year of lower productivity, but you get a championship out of it, so be it, its an uncapped league. Flags fly forever. Not many Jays fans are lamenting the fact that Jack Morris sucked in '93 are they?

 

He was worth 2.6 fWAR this year in his age-29 season. You can't project 2.2 wins per year over the next 5 years. There are much cheaper ways to add a 2-win OF to the roster.

[TDotttt2005]

He was worth 2.6 fWAR this year in his age-29 season. You can't project 2.2 wins per year over the next 5 years. There are much cheaper ways to add a 2-win OF to the roster.

 

He missed the last month of the season with a freak injury.

[BTS]

He missed the last month of the season with a freak injury.

 

He still had a full season. It's not like he had 300 PA.

[SAAviour]

Jays fans are realists who know that Rogers won't spend like the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers...so we look at teams like the Rays and see how they do it and realize there's no freakin way the Rays spend 66 mil on Melky. We play GM and pretend we have the resources he has and try to find creative ways to build a roster.

But I do see your point, I think we worry about bad contracts more then most fans, perhaps Vernon wells scarred us for life.

[TDotttt2005]

He still had a full season. It's not like he had 300 PA.

 

Yes, but by stating his worth last year at 2.6 fWar, and using that as a relative metric to anticipate future seasons, you are understating his performance. ie. had he stayed healthy and gotten to 3.1fWAR, an average of 2.2 wins over the next 5 seasons is less of a reach than comparing it to the incomplete 2.6 win stat.

[BTS]

Yes, but by stating his worth last year at 2.6 fWar, and using that as a relative metric to anticipate future seasons, you are understating his performance. ie. had he stayed healthy and gotten to 3.1fWAR, an average of 2.2 wins over the next 5 seasons is less of a reach than comparing it to the incomplete 2.6 win stat.

 

No. You'd never project him at more than 600 PA in a season. He has 621 PA this year.

[TDotttt2005]

Jays fans are realists who know that Rogers won't spend like the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers...so we look at teams like the Rays and see how they do it and realize there's no freakin way the Rays spend 66 mil on Melky. We play GM and pretend we have the resources he has and try to find creative ways to build a roster.

But I do see your point, I think we worry about bad contracts more then most fans, perhaps Vernon wells scarred us for life.

 

I do understand the realism part of it, the fact that Rogers will never spend and do whatever it takes, but why should we accept that fate. Thats really my point. Why should we shoo'd away and taught to think in terms of contract value and bargain basement shopping, when there is the wherewithal of ownership to do whatever it takes. Maybe thats part of the problem.

 

Also, don't get me wrong, this isn't a blame Rogers rant. I think the $130-$140 million is more than enough, and I blame AA and Gibbons, and hold them accountable as well. What upset me and really got me thinking about this was at the trade deadline, when Rogers apparently / allegedly / reportedly / who f***ing knows at this point didnt come through and we were left talking about the great LHP killer Danny Valencia when Martin Prado and a couple others couldve been had for just money, and wouldve filled our biggest hole. Yet there were the Rogers apologists like Wilner laughing at the Yankees for taking on such a big ticket over the next few seasons, and jays fans falling right in line as our team fell out of it.

[GeorgiaPeach]

Age at end of 2015 season:

 

Anthony Gose: 25

Kevin Pillar: 26

Dalton Pompey: 22

 

GeorgiaPeach go:

 

http://content-img.experienceproject.com/1275495982Tnmelw.jpg

 

Wait out the refractory period and ...

 

The new DH:

 

 

You jumped the gun in tying me to my usual youth movement philosophy, because I actually prefer your suggestion for 2015 at some point. But Pompey needs another few months in the minors, preferably AAA. And even though I like the idea, I still don't feel the Jays are contending for anything in 2015 unless they make at least 2 big adds.

[GeorgiaPeach]

Want no part of Mayberry Jr because he sucks in the field. The idea there is to save as much cash as possible, give yourself defensive kick-assness while rolling the dice that the offenses will come around, and give you defensive flexibility, as well. If you're going to cheap out, you need to at least have plus-plus defense out there (and hope Gose learns to use his speed to disrupt teams batting/running bases and Pompey holds his own in Betts'ish style, so you actually end up with a premium over expectations) ... and then you make up for the uncertainty of questionable young bats out there with upgrades elsewhere. You put yourself in a position of flexibility, base expected improved performance, and possible surplus performance.

 

You're really expecting a lot out of Gose, Pompey and the Front Office to achieve winning baseball.

 

Pompey is nowhere close to being as good as Betts. Gose has stumbled from what I anticipated which wasn't a too far-fetched thought and my guess is, being suppressed in the minors to carry and extra BP arm has really stunted him atleast becoming a 2nd/3rd tier offensive OF.

 

As for the Front Office, I'm not gonna hold my breath any longer waiting for them to go beyond their comfort zone by doing something significant or even creative.

[reedjohnsonfan]

I am surprised the sentiment here is really against this. Say we are conservative and we say $6 million per win average over the next 5 seasons, thats 11 wins from Melky over 5 seasons, or an average of 2.2 wins per season. I think that is completely doable, and as I stated before, dude will be 34 when the contract ends, not in his late 30's where you are pretty much guaranteed a dropoff. Bautista and Cruz (he of similar PED taint) are 34 now.

 

Ive wondered this before, and this makes me wonder again if the Toronto Rogers-run media is to blame for Jays fans being brainwashed to always think more about contract value than about winning the division. The goal is not to assemble a roster of 25 undervalued players. The goal is to win the division, and ultimately the world series. If you overpay by a few million add on a year of lower productivity, but you get a championship out of it, so be it, its an uncapped league. Flags fly forever. Not many Jays fans are lamenting the fact that Jack Morris sucked in '93 are they?

 

I dont think other fanbases are like this, really. Wilner always wonders why Jays fans believe they cannot have nice things. The reason why, is because apologists like him keep hammering into the fan base contract value / too much term / too many years...and have upped that sentiment re: Melky since they got inside word that negotiations were stalled, in order to take the blame off the team for any perception of them being cheap. And a lot of you fall for this. You think Yankee fans are crying about 8 years to Teixera after he led them to the World Series in '09? No. They expect their team to sign stars like that in order to win, and they expect them to sign more when they don't. They don't sit back and laugh when perennial playoff teams and world series contenders sign a guy to an extra couple years and extra couple mil to secure the deal like Jays fans do.

 

It'll be sad when AA comes out with his excuses, "we lined up on dollars, but we couldn't line up on term with the player", and you guys eat it up, and laugh at a team like Seattle or KC who will go the extra mile to sign a guy (KC with Vargas and Infante) to plug holes, meanwhile 6 months later, we're talking about the upcoming offseason, while their fans are watching their team in the playoffs.

 

/end rant.

 

That's the way I see it too. You have to be realistic but at the same time doing nothing to fix obvious problems with the roster is unacceptable. Right now the Jays need someone to play CF, LF, and 2B. It doesn't really matter how good the other 6 players are, if 1/3 of their lineup is garbage they aren't going anywhere since the pitching will presumably not be good enough to carry them.

 

I do anticipate they will re-sign Melky, though. He apparently wants to play here unlike most other free agents, won't need more than 5 years, and the free agent market for the 3 positions they need is awful, so LF might be the only hole they can fix. With that being said, it's not the worst idea to sign him again. The only other thing I could see would be Alex panicking and takes a big risk to save his job so he splashes on Hanley. That's a long shot but wouldn't be overly surprising given the circumstances.

[jaysblue]

That's the way I see it too. You have to be realistic but at the same time doing nothing to fix obvious problems with the roster is unacceptable. Right now the Jays need someone to play CF, LF, and 2B. It doesn't really matter how good the other 6 players are, if 1/3 of their lineup is garbage they aren't going anywhere since the pitching will presumably not be good enough to carry them.

 

I do anticipate they will re-sign Melky, though. He apparently wants to play here unlike most other free agents, won't need more than 5 years, and the free agent market for the 3 positions they need is awful, so LF might be the only hole they can fix. With that being said, it's not the worst idea to sign him again. The only other thing I could see would be Alex panicking and takes a big risk to save his job so he splashes on Hanley. That's a long shot but wouldn't be overly surprising given the circumstances.

 

As much as I start to think, I wouldn't be shocked to see the Blue Jays resign Melky - he fits AA's policy of not going more than 5 years on FA's, since I doubt Melky gets more than 5 years on the open market. It's definitely a possibility.

[Boxcar]

As much as I start to think, I wouldn't be shocked to see the Blue Jays resign Melky - he fits AA's policy of not going more than 5 years on FA's, since I doubt Melky gets more than 5 years on the open market. It's definitely a possibility.

 

Thanks, Raysjays

[jaysblue]

Thanks, Raysjays

 

Your my favourite poster Boxy. Your baseball intellect is like no other

[L54]

Haven't posted much lately, just been reading- busy with school. What is the general consensus on a Melky QO? Does he take it? I think the best case scenario is offering it and he declines. Really don't see him repeating this year.

 

I'm expecting to hear of a 3/40 deal announced by AA because "he wants to be here" and "he fits in our clubhouse".

 

I agree with Moogy- Aoki would be great.

[jays4life19]

Haven't posted much lately, just been reading- busy with school. What is the general consensus on a Melky QO? Does he take it? I think the best case scenario is offering it and he declines. Really don't see him repeating this year.

 

I'm expecting to hear of a 3/40 deal announced by AA because "he wants to be here" and "he fits in our clubhouse".

 

I agree with Moogy- Aoki would be great.

 

Consensus is it will be offered and turned down.

 

He's likely gone and I'm perfectly fine with that.

[glory]

My gut feeling is Melky will decline it, but stranger things have happened. It wouldn't be terrible if he accepts it since it will only be a one year deal but it would be way too much of the 2015 payroll to use on a limited OF/DH.

 

I also like the Aoki idea. Maybe it's just the Royals success getting to me but I really like the idea of three CF's in the OF at once. Starting Pompey and Gose/Pillar would accomplish 2/3's of that. I guess asking for a third pure CF who can hit might be too much so I'll settle for an above average 3rd OF while moving Bats to 1B.

[KingKat]

Does anyone remember if doubt has ever been raised about Melky's age? (I suppose I'm doing it right now just by posting this.) I have never heard anything to that effect but he plays pretty old for his age.

[Laika]

Does anyone remember if doubt has ever been raised about Melky's age? (I suppose I'm doing it right now just by posting this.) I have never heard anything to that effect but he plays pretty old for his age.

 

I don't think so.

 

The fact that he didn't kill the minors and took several MLB seasons to become a productive hitter would seem to affirm that his age is legit. His offensive peak has come at ages 26-29, so that certainly passes the sniff test.

 

If he was actually in his mid 20's (physical*talent peak!) back when he was a Yankee and Brave, you'd think he wouldn't have sucked so much.

[reedjohnsonfan]

Not sure if posted but nice little write up about the Jays upcoming offseason on MLBTR

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/10/offseason-outlook-toronto-blue-jays-6.html

 

Sums up lots of stuff. Interesting that they talk about Rogers spending 5.2 billion to get NHL rights as a reason why the Jays couldn't add payroll. That wasn't talked about too much on this board IIRC.

[Ziggyy108]

Not sure if posted but nice little write up about the Jays upcoming offseason on MLBTR

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/10/offseason-outlook-toronto-blue-jays-6.html

 

Sums up lots of stuff. Interesting that they talk about Rogers spending 5.2 billion to get NHL rights as a reason why the Jays couldn't add payroll. That wasn't talked about too much on this board IIRC.

 

Thats basically one of the only things I have posted about in the last year

[reedjohnsonfan]

It was mentioned many times here ... and the author only mentions it as a theory that's been bandied about ... and it was a theory that was thrown out there.

 

He then, without any real reasoning besides they didn't spend, so they won't spend ... that next year's payroll will stagnate or go lower. Despite Beeston's comment that it will definitely increase.

 

We'll see if Beeston was lying ... but even in the world of snake oil salesmen, acting directly in contradiction to affirmative assurances is uncommon.

 

In other words, the author really sucks on that topic of discussion.

 

You're right actually. It was talked about a bit, but I don't remember it being a main theory. The article was good for people who don't follow the Jays religiously.

 

I fear that Beeston was lying. As much as I think they will probably sign Melky, what's going to happen is they won't do anything else and then they'll say we tried but the right deal for the free agent or trade wasn't there for us. I'm a genius, right?

[RealAccountant]

Not sure if posted but nice little write up about the Jays upcoming offseason on MLBTR

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/10/offseason-outlook-toronto-blue-jays-6.html

 

Sums up lots of stuff. Interesting that they talk about Rogers spending 5.2 billion to get NHL rights as a reason why the Jays couldn't add payroll. That wasn't talked about too much on this board IIRC.

 

Hockey has caused the Jays everything, its too bad that the NHL recovered. I would have loved to see it tank after the strike of the mid 2000s. I hope Rogers loses money on the deal long term,

 

I hope the Leafs never make the playoffs again, and eventually lose all their fans

 

but my hopes are meaningless. The truth is that it is what it is

[CJ-Freeway]

Hockey has caused the Jays everything, its too bad that the NHL recovered. I would have loved to see it tank after the strike of the mid 2000s. I hope Rogers loses money on the deal long term,

 

I hope the Leafs never make the playoffs again, and eventually lose all their fans

 

but my hopes are meaningless. The truth is that it is what it is

 

 

I feel your pain. f***ing hockey busting our balls again.