Jeff Blair - Signs from FO strongly suggest both Melky and Colby gone next year

[glory]

Why would you hate Rogers more? Did you mean Roger Moore? That I could understand. Connery all day, every day for Mr. Bond. Even Daniel Craig will do. But Moore? Sissy.

 

The Jays have adequate payroll. Take a look at the higher payroll teams ... Dodgers, Yanks, Phils, Sox, Tigers, Angels, Giants, Rangers, Nats, Jays, D'Backs, Reds, Cards, Braves, Orioles.

 

According to Deadspin, that's your top 15 2014 Opening Day payroll list.

 

Notice a common theme there? Pretty much all of those teams are having success, or have had recent success. Now there's your exception here and there. The Phils had it, then just went bonkers and got old and expensive. The D'Backs are ... well, the D'Backs. Do you know what the Phils and D'Backs have in common? GMs that are widely regarded as cuckoo puffs.

 

And then there's the Jays. Higher payroll and no success. What do you think the problem is there? Ownership? or the GM?

 

How many of the well run teams would jack up payroll by some $40M one off-season , then do absolutely nothing the next?

 

How many of the well run teams would freeze payroll and not allow MLB transactions (Navarro aside) in an off season not once but TWICE in the last five years? Remember in 2009 when the off season was pretty much digging up the corpses of Millar, Clement, etc?

 

Rogers is a terrible owner. Yes, they increased payroll. However, is it not common sense to have a 2-3 year plan to strategically bump payroll to account for existing backloaded contracts and improving the team?

 

The last time Rogers acted like this, they were firing JP Ricciardi. Alex has saved himself for at least another month or so by the team playing better than expected, but they could have been first place right now if Alex added talent in the off season. Before you blame Alex for that, who benefits more by not spending, the owner or the GM?

[TheHurl]

And who do you blame for being in this position? The team or the GM?

 

The fact is the GM asked for money from ownership and got it and the proceeded to waste it (and a lot of prospect capital) on the players obtained after the 2012 season. And yes you could argue that it was a half-pregnant approach but if AA didn't have the means at his disposal to go all in and still decided to ask for a payroll increase so he could go half-way because he a. overestimated the quality of his team and the depths of its holes or b. recoginzed the flaws in his team but decided to gamble anyways, who do you blame for that?

 

We'll do so well in 2013 that the increases in 2014 just won't matter, thinking that went through the head office's mind.

[reedjohnsonfan]

to be all in based on the offseason needs that were identified by everyone and not acted upon I think we needed to go to $150mill.

 

needed 14mil for starting pitcher

needed 6 mill for starting 2B

needed 2 mill for adequate backups, not AAA fillers we now see throughout the lineup

 

What second baseman signed for or is making 6 million?

[KingKat]

We'll do so well in 2013 that the increases in 2014 just won't matter, thinking that went through the head office's mind.

 

In that case, AA did a. overestimated the quality of his team and the depths of its holes (and no, I'm not saying he should have expected the team to fail a spectaculary as it did but he shouldn't have expected it to not suffer from serious depth issues.).

[KingKat]

I don't understand it. If every team's ownership group was expected to endlessly supply money to the payroll, than every team would have an infinite payroll. All the money in the world would be spent.

 

It's just not a realistic/practical approach. Limits are a necessity. Rogers also, y'know, wants to make a little bit of money themselves too.

 

I think you know that I know this but I'll do a sarcasm detector check anyways.

[Mikeleelop]

And who do you blame for being in this position? The team or the GM?

 

The fact is the GM asked for money from ownership and got it and the proceeded to waste it (and a lot of prospect capital) on the players obtained after the 2012 season. And yes you could argue that it was a half-pregnant approach but if AA didn't have the means at his disposal to go all in and still decided to ask for a payroll increase so he could go half-way because he a. overestimated the quality of his team and the depths of its holes or b. recoginzed the flaws in his team but decided to gamble anyways, who do you blame for that?

 

they are both to blame

 

I was very excited for the future when AA made the deals in 2013 however Dickey has sucked. JJ sucked, MB was okay LY, good this season, Reyes has been a huge disappointment, the other plug was horrible. Mizeer Izturis has underperformed while healthy and blew out his knee walking down a flight of stairs. Melky was bad LY, good value this year. Should AA have anticipated these results?? if the players performed how i expected (hoped i guess), where would the team be now? However, with hindsight AA should have anticipated this regression and not made the deals. I liked the moves back then and give credit to AA, PB and the jays for trying.

 

if the deals were not made, the Jays would likely be in a worse position but with a stronger minor league system. JB and EE would likely be traded for more prospects. We would be like the Cubs. Minors stacked, s*** in the majors.

 

However, no retooling after 2013 season is on Rogers (i assume)

 

I like how AA has restocked the farm at this point. We have a number of prospects who are moving up various lists along with others who will get there shortly

 

Anyway I still hold out hope. I don't want to make a desperate trade now to lose our top prospects. I want a long term plan for franchise success. I hope Rogers has this. If AA is to blame for the trade failure, then we should replace him with someone who can adequately lead the team in the future years. That's my rambling for the afternoon. I know everyone has their own opinion and most on here disagree with me but i think AA is a good baseball guy.

Edited July 15, 2014 by Mikeleelop

[TheHurl]

What second baseman signed for or is making 6 million?

 

Omar Infante

[Mikeleelop]

Omar Infante

 

thanks, that's who i was just going to look up. He would be perfect in our lineup

[NorthOf49]

I think you know that I know this but I'll do a sarcasm detector check anyways.

Yeah I was agreeing with your post and then making a point to Mikeleelop. Every team obviously can't keep spending until they have a playoff team because there are only eight/ten playoff spots.

[reedjohnsonfan]

Omar Infante

 

Forgot he was a FA, thanks.

[TheHurl]

I like how AA has restocked the farm at this point. We have a number of prospects who are moving up various lists along with others who will get there shortly

 

he didn't really do anything to re-stock the farm. A few prospects have turned corners and are having great years...and they had what is perceived to be a good draft which is part is due to not signing a player from the year before and also from stinking it up last year.

[Mikeleelop]

he didn't really do anything to re-stock the farm. A few prospects have turned corners and are having great years...and they had what is perceived to be a good draft which is part is due to not signing a player from the year before and also from stinking it up last year.

 

i think he deserves some credit for this. The players were drafted on his watch and developed in the jays system.

[Mikeleelop]

Forgot he was a FA, thanks.

 

although he prob wouldn't have signed in Toronto because we have artificial turf

 

btw, who is to blame for Toronto still having turf??? we can agree that AA isn't to blame for that right?

 

LOL, thanks guys for the good baseball conversation

 

i think it is reasonable for Rogers to have taken team payroll to $150mil. Its reasonable because we have the biggest baseball market in North America. We can't see how much Roger makes off the Jays TV because Rogers is a private company. I am sure that with the audience they pull in the advertising revenue is substantial

[Mikeleelop]

That would have put the Jays at $157M. So a $38M increase over last year's $35.5M increase.

 

Yeah, that seems reasonable.

 

So, when that team fails ... do they need to go to $190M for 2015? Or are they half pregnant again?

 

we will never know will we

[glory]

Payroll went up about $35M last year. It went up $18M this year. Is it ownership's fault that the GM chose to spend the money as he did?

 

What money did he spend in the off-season? Navarro's salary was what they expected JPA's arbitration figure to be (per Alex himself). Other than that, what money was spent? The payroll increased because of the existing backloaded contracts. You know, the ones Rogers approved of last year.

 

 

Plenty of successful higher-payroll teams have stagnated payroll, or even decreased it, year-to-year. "Well run" begs the question, because the GM is running things.

 

You dodged or misunderstood the question. How many well run high payroll teams do NOTHING in an off season? I'm not talking about shedding salary, or increasing salary. I'm talking about nothing but minor league deals and waiver pick ups?

 

 

That's the GM's job. That's what he does. Your blaming AA's failures on Rogers. Now we've gotten to the heart of the problem. You're just simply misidentifying the responsible party.

 

 

 

 

This is silly "logic." You can justify any non-ownership failure this way. All ownership has limits to payroll. That doesn't mean that if you don't get unlimited funds, you're not responsible for your failures, but ownership is.

 

You seemed to have convinced yourself that somehow ownership convinced AA that he could spend X amount in 2013, and that Y additional amount would be available to him in 2014 (and going forward) ... and that, somehow, they pulled the rug out from under him. Yet, there are many other more logical scenarios that exist in this, that would explain the current situation ... and no evidence to support your assumptions.

 

It's amusing because you have no evidence to support your claims either. You are assuming Alex making nothing but minor league deals and waiver pick ups was his idea of improving the team, which is insanely stupid. Why didn't Alex shed payroll if there was a payroll ceiling? Why didn't he make lateral moves to improve areas without increasing payroll? Why didn't JP Ricciardi make a single MLB transaction in 2009 (the year they fired him)?

 

All the answers to those questions, apparently are devoid of ownership involvement. Makes complete sense.

 

You are way off base here. I'm not absolving Alex of blame. He should be blamed. I'm saying the last two years, contrary to blinders warn by ownership backers, had Rogers fingerprints over it. You can choose to not believe it, that's up to you. You are just as clueless to the inner workings of the team as I am. We are all guessing. reality in this case, especially since the same damn thing happened in 2009, doesn't back your assertions. Rogers doesn't seem to run logically.

[Chappy]

we will never know will we

 

Nor should we. At some point the decision makers have to be accountable and that means AA and Beeston.

[shortstop]

well, Boras thinks Rogers is chimping out & I'm starting to realize that maybe this Boras guy is maybe just telling it the way it is.

 

Mikeleelop brought up a good point - we have no idea RIGHT NOW whether AA has the ability to take on payroll and if so, what amount. I mean, we don't even know if he can take on what's left of the last year of a player's contract and say b/w $3-$6M or whatever for the remainder of the season & with no long term commitment...

 

this team has been bleeding & could have used a reinforcement a month ago...yet nothing...could be AA or could be Rogers...

 

this trade deadline may be very telling...or it may not be b/c the jays are essentially out of it by the 31st that the easy decision is to be a seller...

 

but assuming the jays are in the race by the deadline, failing to add a player reeks of Rogers cutting of the taps & that, imo, is unacceptable when this team desperately needs a decent 3B/2B to play alongside Lawrie, Reyes & EE. To get a decent, proven, experienced player for 3B/2B, it will very likely cost some $$'s to take on this year...of course the other tell maybe if AA gets a trade done only to have the other team take on the remaining salary...maybe smart but it maybe AA's only option...

[Mikeleelop]

Nor should we. At some point the decision makers have to be accountable and that means AA and Beeston.

 

and maybe Rogers is happy with the job they are doing

 

after a major adjustment to the roster in 2013 there needed to be a couple adjustments/additions. Maybe AA is at fault for not projecting 2014 preseason roster additions when he made the deals in 2013. to me its reasonable to hope rogers would allow $20mil on FA signings after they approve all the 2013 deals. Especially when 2013 flamed out so badly. Again that's my opinion that bluejay payroll s/b at $150m level.

 

if the 2014 Jays fail with Infante at 2b and Ervin Santana pitching then i would say blow the whole thing up. trade away your big salary vets. Fire PB and AA. You have failed. but, it would be nice to see where the team sits with those two guys on the roster for the whole season. Wishful thinking and fairy tales.........

 

again that's my opinion.

[shortstop]

yeah, despite perception of many, it may be Rogers/Beest/AA have been and are all on the same page...

[glory]

Just to make my point more clear, I think Alex is responsible for this roster and current position. He deserves to get railed for it. All I'm saying is there is enough inconsistencies in the way this team has operated the last two years to suggest that ownership has meddled, especially this off-season as it mirrors 2009 so much it is scary.

 

Ownership should have a consistent vision. Don't increase payroll at all if there isn't going to be a consistent uptick annually. They were better off with a small budget in that case.

[KingKat]

Just to make my point more clear, I think Alex is responsible for this roster and current position. He deserves to get railed for it. All I'm saying is there is enough inconsistencies in the way this team has operated the last two years to suggest that ownership has meddled, especially this off-season as it mirrors 2009 so much it is scary.

 

Ownership should have a consistent vision. Don't increase payroll at all if there isn't going to be a consistent uptick annually. They were better off with a small budget in that case.

 

Well maybe they just determined after the first uptick that AA and Beeston couldn't be trusted with money? Would that be wrong?

[glory]

Well maybe they just determined after the first uptick that AA and Beeston couldn't be trusted with money? Would that be wrong?

 

Oh, I'm positive ownership did not trust Alex with extra money. I keep mentioning 2009 because that was the year they lost faith in JP and the same thing happened (seriously, it's almost identical). This entire season was an excuse to fire AA.

 

My point is, if they wanted to win, they should have added. If they wanted to get a new GM and scale back, then they should have done it. They didn't do anything, which is a waste of a season, a waste of the prime years of your best players, etc. Halladay knows how a season like this feels.

[Nox]

Omar Infante

 

Sean Rod would love to be making $6M.

[Nox]

It is pretty crazy to me that anybody can look at this franchise and not immediately zero in on AA/Beeston as the issue.

 

Above average payroll, gifted 3 miracles from the baseball gods and we have a true talent 82 win team? If that doesn't speak of baseball ops incompetence I don't know what does.

[shortstop]

surely the true constant here is and has been Beeston

[glory]

It is pretty crazy to me that anybody can look at this franchise and not immediately zero in on AA/Beeston as the issue.

 

Above average payroll, gifted 3 miracles from the baseball gods and we have a true talent 82 win team? If that doesn't speak of baseball ops incompetence I don't know what does.

 

The Marlins trade really was the death of the Bautista Era. If that trade never happens, then the Dickey trade never happens, and the whole dynamic changes, short and long term.

[Nox]

The Marlins trade really was the death of the Bautista Era. If that trade never happens, then the Dickey trade never happens, and the whole dynamic changes, short and long term.

 

Whenever you can punt $150M+ in projected value, you do it.

[KingKat]

gifted 3 miracles from the baseball gods a

 

Bautista, EE and...

[Mikeleelop]

That's not a valid response.

 

I posed the question to you. It's a hypothetical. By definition we will never know.

 

Of course the question was posed to highlight that you appear to just want to keep spending more and more money, as needed, until we win.

 

We spent X and it didn't cut it? Half pregnant. Need to spend more. Oh, now we spent Y and it didn't cut it? Half pregnant. Need to spend more. Ad infinitum.

 

 

i have responded in post #211 regarding when to stop spending. i think taking team salary to 150'ish this season with the addition of say Infante and Santana (wishful thinking) would give you a valid team to evaluate if they were good enough or not. That's what i would have liked to see then.. As i have indicated, i believe that a team salary budget of $150m is fair.

 

the 2014 roster as composed at the start of the season (and now) is not good enough to compete for 162 games. there have been hot streaks but over the long haul the team will fail. In my fairytale world, if those two additions didn't take us to compete in the playoffs then sell off all veteran talent. The "core" are not good enough. But the flaw in this season is that nothing was done (other than Dinner) and we are close enough to be fooled into competing. now we are in position to trade valuable prospects instead of FA signings in the offseason.

 

Rogers has f***ed up. They have let 2013 extend into 2014. its just one season that has lasted for two years. i don't think this is AA's decision. you believe this season is AA's doing. Again, we have no information to decide this point.

 

AA is the GM, ultimately he will fall.

[Mikeleelop]

That would have put the Jays at $157M. So a $38M increase over last year's $35.5M increase.

 

Yeah, that seems reasonable.

 

So, when that team fails ... do they need to go to $190M for 2015? Or are they half pregnant again?

 

I've put forward my suggestion, and backed up why i thought (or hoped) that would have happened. What is your suggestion/plan?