20 players the Blue Jays could go after

[G-Snarls]

I guarantee the Jays have interest in Lee.

 

And I'm all for it if the Phillies provide some salary relief in any deal, or take a s*** contract away like Romero

[GeorgiaPeach]

what is the max payroll? The payroll to date are all sunk costs. Making the playoffs could add 10s if not 100 mil or more in revenue to the team. It's a risk reward thing at this point. The carrot of additional revenue should be enough for Rogers to risk the money when the chances are this good to make the post season.

 

I'm more a fan of teams trying to win for a long time, opposed to a short run and then play the "we had our chance and have to re-tool for the next 4+ years" card.

[saskjayfan]

Yeah, obviously you don't acquire him if you don't like what you see in his medicals. A healthy lee is probably something like 4 WAR next year and 3.5 in 2016 though. IMO most every system will have Buehrle at around 2 next year. He's been there the last two years, and would be there again if not for a low HR/FB artificially deflating his FIP.

 

I actually really like Mark Buehrle, and have no issues paying him what he'll earn, but if given the choice between him and Lee, I'll take Lee every time if his medicals check out.

 

we're not getting lee and we're not trading buehrle so it really doesn't matter I suppose. The big thing is the Jays play 3 against the rangers and 4 against the sox at home post allstar followed by 3 against the Yankees, 3 against the sox and 4 against Huston. The schedule is light post allstar. I think EE, Lawrie and Lind could be back at some point in that stretch. If we could aquire a player to give the team a shot of confidence this is a stretch the Jays could go 10 and 7 or 11 and 6 in. A lot of it depends when those 3 key injuries get back. Colby's been ice cold and so has bautista been the past few games. We need those two guys to get going after the allstar game. A zobrist type could really help solidify this lineup. Ideally we would get a starter too....but you can't sit on your hands with Tanaka out. This lineup is a good one with Lawrie, EE and Lind back in it.

[BTS]

And I'm all for it if the Phillies provide some salary relief in any deal, or take a s*** contract away like Romero

 

What if you can get Lee for Sean Nolin and A.J. Jimenez if you agree to take on the whole contract?

[GeorgiaPeach]

That's only $6 million more in 2015 for 2-3 extra wins. Yes, Lee is also owed money for 2016 while Buehrle isn't, but there's not really anything to suggest he won't still be a 2-3 win arm at that point. For a team that's trying to win now, Lee is pretty clearly a better investment, all else being equal.

 

I had to listen to this s*** defending the Dickey trade about him being a knuckleballer and a rock solid pitcher into his mid 40's because that's what knuckleballers do.

 

Maeda at 25 per for 6 years and keeping all our prospects is way more attractive to me than dealing for Cliff Lee.

[TwistedLogic]

Citing Buehrle's current FIP-based fWAR while he's rocking a 6% HR/FB is pretty disingenuous. You wake up on the wrong side of the bed? And I was talking 2015 and 2016.

 

Why would you be talking 2015 and 2016 when Buehrle's contract expires after 2015? That doesn't even make it a logical comparison at that point. Citing Buehrle's FIP-based fWAR is disingenuous, but flat-out projecting 7 wins for a guy that's still not back from an elbow injury that shelved him for two months already, isn't?

[TheHurl]

I honestly can't believe you made this post.

 

You're projecting 7 WAR over 1.5 seasons for a 35 year old that just missed two months of his current season because of an elbow injury (and isn't actually back yet), while projecting 2 wins over 1.5 seasons for Buehrle, a guy who is immune to injury, and posted more than that amount (2.2 WAR) in half a season so far. Yeah... okay...

 

For what it's worth Oliver projects 2.8 WAR for Buehrle in 2015 and 2016 while Lee is projected at 7.4 WAR.

[GeorgiaPeach]

Trade for Beltre and Lee and we will be the AL Phillies.

 

Reyes and Reyes must go (OT or Tsunami lol)

 

It's our year boys.

[TheHurl]

Interest is one thing, taking on all of that contract is a whole other one.

 

Fine I'll guarantee that too

[BTS]

Why would you be talking 2015 and 2016 when Buehrle's contract expires after 2015? That doesn't even make it a logical comparison at that point. Citing Buehrle's FIP-based fWAR is disingenuous, but flat-out projecting 7 wins for a guy that's still not back from an elbow injury that shelved him for two months already, isn't?

 

I'm willing to bet that projections will have Buehrle at around 2 WAR next year and Lee at around 4. Seeing as he's scheduled to make his next start, I don't really see a reason why people without access to medical records should be adjusting that down when discussing the value he'll provide on his contract going forward. There is every reason to believe that a healthy Lee will be well worth his contract. Lee is healthy now. Will he stay healthy? Who the f*** knows?

[ElNik2013]

Fine I'll guarantee that too

 

Alright, we'll see what happens.

[TwistedLogic]

For what it's worth Oliver projects 2.8 WAR for Buehrle in 2015 and 2016 while Lee is projected at 7.4 WAR.

 

I think I made it pretty clear in the offseason that I don't give a s*** what Oliver thinks. I hardly believe in 1-year projections, 5-year projections are a joke.

[ElNik2013]

For what it's worth Oliver projects 2.8 WAR for Buehrle in 2015 and 2016 while Lee is projected at 7.4 WAR.

 

 

What's Buehrle's projected salary for 2016? I think that's part of what TL is pointing out.

[ElNik2013]

I think I made it pretty clear in the offseason that I don't give a s*** what Oliver thinks. I hardly believe in 1-year projections, 5-year projections are a joke.

 

 

I'm in that camp. I only go by my own projections now. I'm doing alright this year as I thought everyone was overrating the Yanks, Red Sox and Rays...but anyway...

[GeorgiaPeach]

What if you can get Lee for Sean Nolin and A.J. Jimenez if you agree to take on the whole contract?

 

If it means there's no money for any improvements to the team aside from Lee for 2015? Definitely not.

[TwistedLogic]

I'm willing to bet that projections will have Buehrle at around 2 WAR next year and Lee at around 4. Seeing as he's scheduled to make his next start, I don't really see a reason why people without access to medical records should be adjusting that down when discussing the value he'll provide on his contract going forward. There is every reason to believe that a healthy Lee will be well worth his contract. Lee is healthy now. Will he stay healthy? Who the f*** knows?

 

I would take a healthy Lee over most pitchers in the game, but I have no reason to believe that his health is anywhere close to a guarantee right now. If there is any player in the game that can even attempt to make a claim to that guarantee, it's Mark Buehrle.

 

Cliff Lee is a $50 million gamble, and that is not something this team can afford to make.

 

What if you can get Lee for Sean Nolin and A.J. Jimenez if you agree to take on the whole contract?

 

No chance in hell. That locks the club out from doing jack s*** for the next two years, and probably even cuts into the draft budget.

[TheHurl]

I'm in that camp. I only go by my own projections now. I'm doing alright this year as I thought everyone was overrating the Yanks, Red Sox and Rays...but anyway...

 

Sounds like sound projections with no bias at all.

[GD]

What if you can get Lee for Sean Nolin and A.J. Jimenez if you agree to take on the whole contract?

 

Rogers would never, lol

[TheHurl]

I would take a healthy Lee over most pitchers in the game, but I have no reason to believe that his health is anywhere close to a guarantee right now. If there is any player in the game that can even attempt to make a claim to that guarantee, it's Mark Buehrle.

 

Cliff Lee is a $50 million gamble, and that is not something this team can afford to make.

 

 

 

No chance in hell. That locks the club out from doing jack s*** for the next two years, and probably even cuts into the draft budget.

 

I don't agree with the move...but Lee gets that 2013 pre-season buzz back. Trading anyone contributing to this team destroys that. Seeing as I don't believe in this front office to make good value decisions I think they may as well take a big cash gamble over other options.

[TwistedLogic]

Sounds like sound projections with no bias at all.

 

Or at least sounds a lot more accurate than "sound projections with no bias at all".

[BTS]

I would take a healthy Lee over most pitchers in the game, but I have no reason to believe that his health is anywhere close to a guarantee right now. If there is any player in the game that can even attempt to make a claim to that guarantee, it's Mark Buehrle.

 

Cliff Lee is a $50 million gamble, and that is not something this team can afford to make.

 

That makes it a pretty difficult thing to discuss. What if he throws 90 innings of 2.9 ERA ball in the second half with peripherals that match? Would you take him over Buehrle at that point assuming Buehrle does normal Buehrle things over that time? I mean, obviously there are scenarios where a trade for Lee makes sense (medicals are completely clean) and scenarios where they don't (medicals say his elbow is ground hamburger).

[BTS]

Sounds like sound projections with no bias at all.

 

At the risk of getting into a Rays debate, people who claim to have seen the Rays' poor record coming don't sound nearly as smart as they think they do. Being right for the wrong reasons isn't really something to be proud of.

[TwistedLogic]

I don't agree with the move...but Lee gets that 2013 pre-season buzz back.

 

And I have absolutely no reason to believe that there is any truth to that. A 35 year old who hasn't thrown a pitch since May is not going to get "2013 pre-season buzz". Cliff Lee is a sabermetric pitcher and the last time he had 20+ wins was 6 years ago. The casual Toronto mongs aren't going to come out for that. If you want buzz, you can do that in hundreds of other trade possibilities that all make sense for this club and don't come along with a $50 million price tag.

[TheHurl]

9. Travis Wood- The Chicago Cubs are moving all their assets for future pieces and Wood could be a cheaper sleeper piece for the Jays. Wood had a career year last season pitching his way to a 3.11 earned run average even-though it is elevated this season over 4.00. Wood is arbitration eligible this off-season and a nice fit if the Cubs don’t try to pillage the Jays for all their prospects in a return.

 

Forget letting him pitch...he'd be the best 2B we have by far.

[sh3156]

I'm more a fan of teams trying to win for a long time, opposed to a short run and then play the "we had our chance and have to re-tool for the next 4+ years" card.

 

Then you would be better off cheering for a non AL East team. Jays will never have that so get over it. Your only choices are a possible playoffs this year or ten more years of .500 baseball

[ElNik2013]

Sounds like sound projections with no bias at all.

 

 

Gotta be honest, it's something I've gotta work on, but I can guarantee my projection system (dubbed The Nik) is far more advanced than The Best....

[sh3156]

Imagine where they'd be if Melky and Buehrle didn't have bounce back years.

 

Imagine where Orioles would be if they didn't have a shocking above character MVP year

[TwistedLogic]

That makes it a pretty difficult thing to discuss. What if he throws 90 innings of 2.9 ERA ball in the second half with peripherals that match? Would you take him over Buehrle at that point assuming Buehrle does normal Buehrle things over that time? I mean, obviously there are scenarios where a trade for Lee makes sense (medicals are completely clean) and scenarios where they don't (medicals say his elbow is ground hamburger).

 

I choose to believe that the Jays FO isn't actually a bunch of orangutan dumbasses, and must have looked at Josh Johnson's medicals before trading for him too. Look how that turned out. Knowing that, and knowing what happens year in and year out with pitching injuries, I'm not sure how much confidence I would have in a guy's medicals even if they were completely clean. I would still be looking at Cliff Lee as a guy going into his age 37 season having suffered a legitimate pitching injury the year prior.

 

In the end it all comes down to the money. If the Phillies eat his salary, I would have no problem with the Jays giving them something like Sanchez, Nolin, Jimenez. If they don't eat any of his salary, then let alone Jimenez and Nolin, I wouldn't take him as a free salary dump. This is the same world in which the Jays tried to get their star players, who are already on ridiculously below market deals, to defer salary for a year of f***ing Ervin Santana. There's no room for a guy that makes 25M and is owed atleast a 12.5M buyout on top of that.

[ElNik2013]

That makes it a pretty difficult thing to discuss. What if he throws 90 innings of 2.9 ERA ball in the second half with peripherals that match? Would you take him over Buehrle at that point assuming Buehrle does normal Buehrle things over that time? I mean, obviously there are scenarios where a trade for Lee makes sense (medicals are completely clean) and scenarios where they don't (medicals say his elbow is ground hamburger).

 

 

What if he's JJ.2? The guy is 35 with a wanky elbow and is owed 38M for next year, wouldn't touch.

 

Speaking of this, I've gotta work that injury risk in to my projections system, be right back...

[TheHurl]

And I have absolutely no reason to believe that there is any truth to that. A 35 year old who hasn't thrown a pitch since May is not going to get "2013 pre-season buzz". Cliff Lee is a sabermetric pitcher and the last time he had 20+ wins was 6 years ago. The casual Toronto mongs aren't going to come out for that. If you want buzz, you can do that in hundreds of other trade possibilities that all make sense for this club and don't come along with a $50 million price tag.

 

The casual fans know two things...what the mainstream media tell them and "former Cy Young award winner. Not to mention $25M a season, even my Mom who only watches the Jays and the only non Jays she knows are Papi (who she thinks that's his real name), Jeter, A-Rod and a smattering of a former Jays, she'd know that's superstar money.

 

Spending = buzz IMO.