the playoffs should be easy to make...

[Stangstag]

The thing i dont understand is how so many people can't figure out that this is normal to slump. A 90 win team loses 72 times. Common sense would dictate that even the best teams will have terrible slumps. Unfortunately most people don't understand this.

 

People don't understand baseball

[wilko]

Ya'll a bunch of idiots.

[Olerud363]

Very Simple. We, in this city, have been scorned so long, we look for things to go wrong. So that we can predict the sky falling,

 

Its a defense mechanism

 

If the team crashes, this people get to say I told you so, and they get to be right.

If the team starts winning again, they can be thrilled the team is winning and all is forgotten.

 

People use this mechanism to guard themselves against disappointing negative feelings.

 

Jays 76-86: I saw it coming mother f***ers. Saw it coming all the way.

 

Jays 96-66: Hell Yes.

[Olerud363]

People are constantly pessimistic cry babies to guard against having potentially negative feelings in the future? Makes sense.

 

Its baseball. Just chill the f*** out and enjoy the games, win or lose

 

Chill the f*** out? We prefer to say calm down. It is a little less aggressive.

[gruber92]

gimme a break Gruber. This franchise has been a 20 year disaster... doesn't mean that it won't turn around. But some of us won't believe until we see it.

 

I'm a little silly sometimes but this franchise is maddening. I am fully expecting a crazy crash to meaningless games by August... It might not be logical but it just seems that's the way it goes.

 

If they win I'll be happier then anybody. I will praise Beeston as a genius, I will watch everyday in September. I will make sure all my iphone apps are up to date so I get real time updates on my phone if I am out.

 

I guess that sums up my feelings on this franchise. I haven't bothered to update my iphone apps cause I don't care... I used to get a text every time the Jays scored but my app is out of date. Haven't felt the need to update it cause I kinda think this whole hot streak is an illusion. If the jays are trailing I go to bed early and don't bother to check the score until morning.

 

That will all change if they are in it in Septemeber. Just cause I don't believe right now doesn't make me a degenerate... or maybe it does in your book??

 

Yes that would make you a degenerate in my book. Why are you expecting a crazy crash, because they lost 6 out of their last 8? Or maybe because it's just a common thing for this franchise to do bust out of the gate and lead the division until mid to late June and then fade away? Even in '92 and '93 they have never led the division by 5.5 games and any point. When in the past 20 f***ing years have they teased us and then just tanked?

 

Go watch the f***ing Leafs, as this is where you developed this f***ing pathetic outlook. I know ,i know .. Expect the worst and if things are better you can be pleasantly surprised. I bet you'll be first in line come September to get your Blue Jays face painting done at the games with all the rest of the "loyal fans".

[Chappy]

People don't understand baseball

 

A lot of people really don't. This is a sport of patience and if you follow it long enough you begin to understand that. If you don't then this is the wrong sport to follow.

[Olerud363]

Yes that would make you a degenerate in my book. Why are you expecting a crazy crash, because they lost 6 out of their last 8? Or maybe because it's just a common thing for this franchise to do bust out of the gate and lead the division until mid to late June and then fade away? Even in '92 and '93 they have never led the division by 5.5 games and any point. When in the past 20 f***ing years have they teased us and then just tanked?

 

Go watch the f***ing Leafs, as this is where you developed this f***ing pathetic outlook. I know ,i know .. Expect the worst and if things are better you can be pleasantly surprised. I bet you'll be first in line come September to get your Blue Jays face painting done at the games with all the rest of the "loyal fans".

 

The problem Gruber is that it is an 81 win true talent team. The realistic expectation is that they will win 50% of their games from this point on. So if they have a remarkable stretch and reach 20 games over .500 then we expect them to go .500 the rest of the way and win 91. Which might be enough to win the pennant.

 

If they scuffle a bit, we still expect them to go .500 the rest of the way. So now the expectation is they win 86. Which probably isn't enough.

 

They need everything to go right or they will not make the playoffs. A extended losing streak kills them because they are not really a .600 team.

 

People are not stupid. They are panicking because this team is not that talented. They cannot recover from an extended slump.

[gruber92]

The problem Gruber is that it is an 81 win true talent team. The realistic expectation is that they will win 50% of their games from this point on. So if they have a remarkable stretch and reach 20 games over .500 then we expect them to go .500 the rest of the way and win 91. Which might be enough to win the pennant.

 

If they scuffle a bit, we still expect them to go .500 the rest of the way. So now the expectation is they win 86. Which probably isn't enough.

 

They need everything to go right or they will not make the playoffs. A extended losing streak kills them because they are not really a .600 team.

 

People are not stupid. They are panicking because this team is not that talented. They cannot recover from an extended slump.

 

So if this is just a .500 team, why get all hot and bothered?

[Olerud363]

Yes that would make you a degenerate in my book. Why are you expecting a crazy crash, because they lost 6 out of their last 8? Or maybe because it's just a common thing for this franchise to do bust out of the gate and lead the division until mid to late June and then fade away? Even in '92 and '93 they have never led the division by 5.5 games and any point. When in the past 20 f***ing years have they teased us and then just tanked?

 

Go watch the f***ing Leafs, as this is where you developed this f***ing pathetic outlook. I know ,i know .. Expect the worst and if things are better you can be pleasantly surprised. I bet you'll be first in line come September to get your Blue Jays face painting done at the games with all the rest of the "loyal fans".

 

Here is some math for you.

 

True talent 100 win team hit 40-40 after a slump -

 

It would be stupid to panic about this. The expectation is that the team will finish 50-30 because they are a truly talented team. The slump did not eliinate their playoff chances. Chances are they still win 90.

 

True talent 81 win team hits 40-40 after a slump -

 

It makes sense to panic. This team may have ruined it's chances for the playoffs as expectations are now 81-81 for the finish.

 

People aren't actually stupid.

[Olerud363]

So if this is just a .500 team, why get all hot and bothered?

 

Because if everything goes right a .500 team could win 90. They have to play as good as they can all the way and have luck hit them... When it doesn't all go right we have to face reality again.

[gruber92]

Here is some math for you.

 

True talent 100 win team hit 40-40 after a slump -

 

It would be stupid to panic about this. The expectation is that the team will finish 50-30 because they are a truly talent team. The slump did not eliinate their playoff chances.

 

True talent 81 win team hits 40-40 after a slump -

 

It makes sense to panic. This team may have ruined it's chances for the playoffs as expectations are now 81-81 for the finish.

 

People aren't actually stupid.

 

WTF does this even mean?

 

Hit 40-40?.. LOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL

[Olerud363]

WTF does this even mean?

 

Hit 40-40?.. LOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL

 

It means go 40-40. Win 40 lose 40. .500 record.

[Cooler Heads Prevail]

While this is a pretty bad slump its shown us that this team is not good enough to run away with the division.

 

They are good enough to compete for the division

They are good enough to compete for the wild card

 

But they are not good enough to just run away with things. We should take some solace in knowing that this team has been terrible for 1 whole week now, 1-5 and yet has only lost two games on their deal

 

As wilner pointed out, the 1993 champs went through a 1 and 10 stretch. It happens, and it happens more often then we realize. Look up any great team and you will find a slump at some point in the season. They will be fine. This is why is tay away from the board and radio at times like these

 

I agree in principal with this with the catch that if we add some top notch pitcher like Price or Shields we may run away with this division. There are a ton of inter-divisional games in September, we could drop or rise very quickly in that month, but I fully expect as of August 31st we'll be in the chase.

[Cooler Heads Prevail]

The problem Gruber is that it is an 81 win true talent team. The realistic expectation is that they will win 50% of their games from this point on. So if they have a remarkable stretch and reach 20 games over .500 then we expect them to go .500 the rest of the way and win 91. Which might be enough to win the pennant.

 

If they scuffle a bit, we still expect them to go .500 the rest of the way. So now the expectation is they win 86. Which probably isn't enough.

 

They need everything to go right or they will not make the playoffs. A extended losing streak kills them because they are not really a .600 team.

 

People are not stupid. They are panicking because this team is not that talented. They cannot recover from an extended slump.

 

Your opinion that it is a true talent 81 win team is dubious. Dubious because preseason there was zero expectation of Hutch contributing much, zero expectation that a guy like Francisco would arrive, zero expectation that Buehrle would be anything more then a .500 pitcher ( maybe slightly better ), zero expectation that Cabrera would be better then last year ( in fact, some expectation that he'd be worse ). So I'm not sure what you thought they were "true talent" before the season started, but the objective source predictions I saw ranged mainly from 78 to 84 wins. So you are basically totally ignoring that the team improved from expectations.

 

Myself, I adjusted. At the start of the season, I liked them slightly more then most but posted they weren't good enough to contend ( AA did very little in the off season ). After 2-3 weeks of seeing Hutch/Bautista/Buehrle/Cabrera being far better then expected, and seeing the injuries that occurred in our division, I decided they were likely the best team in the division and would win the AL East.

 

Did you adjust ? Were you putting them down as a true talent 75 win team before the season started ? Because seriously, I think they added 5-6 games from the unexpected changes that occurred within 3 weeks of the season started. Debatable of course.

 

Here's the hidden element, a hard to quantify ingredient that may be a much bigger upgrade then numbers show. Dropping Arencebia and adding this year's catchers seems to have been a big move towards winning. Just on that move alone, this team is far more likely to win. But this is hard to quantify, I just know it's good we did it.

[Cooler Heads Prevail]

Because if everything goes right a .500 team could win 90. They have to play as good as they can all the way and have luck hit them... When it doesn't all go right we have to face reality again.

 

Everything clearly hasn't gone right, their bull pen was really bad in April and Morrow/McGowan weren't really useful as starters. Reyes, Rasmus, and Lind were all injured for significant time periods. I can't see how you could possibly claim this. In fact, everything went right only for a few weeks in May, and they played like a 110 win team in that time period. Anyways, I sense your whole point is to poke holes in this team and expect the worst; my point is an objective view of the team is there is no way they are a .500 team, and can only become so with major new injuries. If those injuries come, sure, get pessimistic. Until that time, it's pointless cynical analysis.

[Olerud363]

Everything clearly hasn't gone right, their bull pen was really bad in April and Morrow/McGowan weren't really useful as starters. Reyes, Rasmus, and Lind were all injured for significant time periods. I can't see how you could possibly claim this. In fact, everything went right only for a few weeks in May, and they played like a 110 win team in that time period. Anyways, I sense your whole point is to poke holes in this team and expect the worst; my point is an objective view of the team is there is no way they are a .500 team, and can only become so with major new injuries. If those injuries come, sure, get pessimistic. Until that time, it's pointless cynical analysis.

 

Hi CPH

 

I am trying to make a serious point here. And I think it is a valid one.

 

All evidence says that the team is a .500 team. Over a period of years they win an average of 81 games. The projection systems showed them as a .500 team for 2014. That is the definition of a .500 team.

 

.500 team doesn't mean they will finish 81-81 given they are allready 39-29. It means they will more than likely play .500 the rest of the way and finish 86-76.

 

Take the 98-2000 Yanks. A true talent 100 win team that won between 87 and 114 depending on luck and injuries (which are partly luck).

 

We are a true talent 81 team and will win between 71 and 91 depending on luck. Unlike a true talent 100 win team we cannot have bad luck or a prolonged slump and make the playoffs.

 

So the panicking at the slumps and possible runs of bad luck is actually rational. People are not stupid and the panicking is because this is an 81 win true talent organization that cannot make the playoffs if a run of bad luck occurs.

[intentional wok]

Over a period of years they win an average of 81 games.

 

So the panicking at the slumps and possible runs of bad luck is actually rational. People are not stupid and the panicking is because this is an 81 win true talent organization that cannot make the playoffs if a run of bad luck occurs.

 

Don't let the guys in blue (or black) hats from years past determine your opinion on the guys in those hats now. If you think the guys we have now don't have what it takes, that's one thing, but previous seasons and rosters don't project the results from this season.

 

Serious questions: are you counting the O's, Yanks, Sox, or Rays out of it? Two of those teams are 3 over .500, one is 6 under, and one 15+ under. At the moment, all are in worse spots than the Blue Jays, objectively speaking. Why do you think these teams have what it takes to blow by our guys in the standings? They are just as vulnerable to slumps as our guys. Minus some bullpen implosions, the Jays might even be 3 or 4 games north of they are now. I'd say performance overall up to this point is indicative of a competitive team vs. a flash in the pan. Luck has played its hand in a few games in the past month, but my own opinion of the club wouldn't be different had the Rays not thrown Gose's bunt away that night or had Reyes made that throw vs. KC.

[Chappy]

Don't let the guys in blue (or black) hats from years past determine your opinion on the guys in those hats now. If you think the guys we have now don't have what it takes, that's one thing, but previous seasons and rosters don't project the results from this season.

 

Serious questions: are you counting the O's, Yanks, Sox, or Rays out of it? Two of those teams are 3 over .500, one is 6 under, and one 15+ under. At the moment, all are in worse spots than the Blue Jays. Why do you think these teams have what it takes to blow by our guys in the standings? Minus some bullpen implosions, we the Jays might even be 3 or 4 games north of they are now. I's say performance overall is indicative of a competitive team vs. a flash in the pan.

 

It's easy to say minus certain implosions, but those implosions are a result of the quality of team we have. The pen is not nearly as good as it was last season. As for the other teams in the division, it's safe to say the Rays are done, the Red Sox are in a very tough spot and would need a heavy run to have any chance at the division. The Yanks and O's however, are both in striking distance and of the two the O's scare me the most. If they add another arm watch out. Same can be said for the Jays, but my gut tells me our big addition will be Morrow or Aaron Sanchez in late July, and that will surely not have any meaningful impact unless both figure out the strike zone.

[intentional wok]

Fair enough, I more or less agree. I don't think the implosions were isolated either. I make that point more as a credit to the offense, who, up until this week, have shown up with a vengeance nearly every game. However, I also agree that the O's are the scarier of the two direct competitors at the moment.

[Olerud363]

Don't let the guys in blue (or black) hats from years past determine your opinion on the guys in those hats now. If you think the guys we have now don't have what it takes, that's one thing, but previous seasons and rosters don't project the results from this season.

 

Serious questions: are you counting the O's, Yanks, Sox, or Rays out of it? Two of those teams are 3 over .500, one is 6 under, and one 15+ under. At the moment, all are in worse spots than the Blue Jays, objectively speaking. Why do you think these teams have what it takes to blow by our guys in the standings? They are just as vulnerable to slumps as our guys. Minus some bullpen implosions, the Jays might even be 3 or 4 games north of they are now. I'd say performance overall up to this point is indicative of a competitive team vs. a flash in the pan. Luck has played its hand in a few games in the past month, but my own opinion of the club wouldn't be different had the Rays not thrown Gose's bunt away that night or had Reyes made that throw vs. KC.

 

In this case 2013 results are relevant. It was the same Roster.

 

I think you guys are just missing the point.

 

If you think this team is a JUGGERNAUGHT! that would win 100 games over and over if you could somehow keep on playing seasons over and over, then you guys are correct. This team will win, because their talent will be robust to luck and/or a bad stretch.

 

If you think this team is not a power house, but is a fringy team that will only win if everything goes right, then I am correct. It makes sense to panic over losing streaks and bad luck because the team does not have the underlying talent base to overcome these things.

[ElNik2013]

In this case 2013 results are relevant. It was the same Roster.

 

I think you guys are just missing the point.

 

If you think this team is a JUGGERNAUGHT! that would win 100 games over and over if you could somehow keep on playing seasons over and over, then you guys are correct. This team will win, because their talent will be robust to luck and/or a bad stretch.

 

If you think this team is not a power house, but is a fringy team that will only win if everything goes right, then I am correct. It makes sense to panic over losing streaks and bad luck because the team does not have the underlying talent base to overcome these things.

 

 

Maybe or maybe not. NO ONE thinks this team is a juggernaut, but NO ONE thought the Red Sox were a juggernaut last year, it is what it is, we'll see what happens. You can say the same thing about MOST MLB teams and I'm referring to "but is a fringy team that will only win if everything goes right".

 

Anyway, to each his own, but you're not saying anything groundbreaking here.

[ElNik2013]

It's easy to say minus certain implosions, but those implosions are a result of the quality of team we have. The pen is not nearly as good as it was last season. As for the other teams in the division, it's safe to say the Rays are done, the Red Sox are in a very tough spot and would need a heavy run to have any chance at the division. The Yanks and O's however, are both in striking distance and of the two the O's scare me the most. If they add another arm watch out. Same can be said for the Jays, but my gut tells me our big addition will be Morrow or Aaron Sanchez in late July, and that will surely not have any meaningful impact unless both figure out the strike zone.

 

 

Maybe Morrow, but you must be joking about Sanchez if you think he's in the mix. We'll see what happens.

[Chappy]

Maybe Morrow, but you must be joking about Sanchez if you think he's in the mix. We'll see what happens.

 

I would never callup Sanchez this season, but his recent promotion leads me to believe AA is trying to setup a fallback option if he can't land a SP.

[wilko]

I would never callup Sanchez this season, but his recent promotion leads me to believe AA is trying to setup a fallback option if he can't land a SP.

 

Why promote him to AAA? Wouldn't he be better off in AA?

[ElNik2013]

I would never callup Sanchez this season, but his recent promotion leads me to believe AA is trying to setup a fallback option if he can't land a SP.

 

I understand your point, but I doubt it very much. He's thrown 66 innings so far and must be at a 120 IP limit so I doubt they're counting on him for anything this year.

 

We'll see what happens.

[Chappy]

Why promote him to AAA? Wouldn't he be better off in AA?

 

I'm not sure why, that's why I am speculating a Beeston/AA publicity move here. Most fans know about Sanchez and if the Jays brass wants to not spend money then Sanchez might be their best bet to appease some fans. I don't know, I just don't really trust that AA even has the power to make a real move at this point.

[Chappy]

I understand your point, but I doubt it very much. He's thrown 66 innings so far and must be at a 120 IP limit so I doubt they're counting on him for anything this year.

 

We'll see what happens.

 

Feeding the fans is all I can think of. Sanchez has been s*** and yet he gets promoted?

[saskjayfan]

Hi CPH

 

I am trying to make a serious point here. And I think it is a valid one.

 

All evidence says that the team is a .500 team. Over a period of years they win an average of 81 games. The projection systems showed them as a .500 team for 2014. That is the definition of a .500 team.

 

.500 team doesn't mean they will finish 81-81 given they are allready 39-29. It means they will more than likely play .500 the rest of the way and finish 86-76.

 

Take the 98-2000 Yanks. A true talent 100 win team that won between 87 and 114 depending on luck and injuries (which are partly luck).

 

We are a true talent 81 team and will win between 71 and 91 depending on luck. Unlike a true talent 100 win team we cannot have bad luck or a prolonged slump and make the playoffs.

 

So the panicking at the slumps and possible runs of bad luck is actually rational. People are not stupid and the panicking is because this is an 81 win true talent organization that cannot make the playoffs if a run of bad luck occurs.

 

I'm not so certain about your true ability to evaluate teams true talent. There were a few of us said this was an above .500 team from day 1. This offense is one of the top 3 offenses in the AL....The bullpen with Jannsen and McGowan back are solid, but underperformed till now. The starting rotation is much better than last year. I don't know how you even evaluate guys like stroman and hutch with so few innings under their belt. If you just go on talent they grade well. This team will also add. Happy won't be in the rotation all year.

[saskjayfan]

Feeding the fans is all I can think of. Sanchez has been s*** and yet he gets promoted?

 

Do you really think promoting Sanchez had anything to do with the fans? Couldn't it be as simple as trying to give the kid a confidence boost and wanting him to work with a different pitching coach. Sometimes the simplest explanation is the right one.

[Chappy]

Do you really think promoting Sanchez had anything to do with the fans? Couldn't it be as simple as trying to give the kid a confidence boost and wanting him to work with a different pitching coach. Sometimes the simplest explanation is the right one.

 

Sometimes sure, but he has major flaws and has an absolutely horrendous walk rate, and when I say horrendous I mean laughable. Not top prospect should be walking nearly 6 every 9 innings. The higher up he goes the more his atrocious control or lack there of will be exposed.