What is Lawries offensive ceiling?

[BigCecil]

Lawrie seems to have matured a lot and his D has been exceptional. He has handled a tough assignment well switching back and forth 2nd and 3rd.

 

He busted on to the scene putting up a .950 OPS in 150 PAs in 2011. Since then he has had injuries and issues at the plate.

 

Im no hitting coach. He is 24 and I like the kids offensive potential, but I still see hitches in that swing and an approach where he often jumps at the ball. He swing and miss ratio is high and he often has questionable pitch selection swinging at balls far off the plate. Does anyone hit more chopping foul ground balls?

 

Im a fan of the player. Curious what people think his ceiling is after watching 1350 PAs now.

[Angrioter]

Wright-lite

[crazy47larry]

The 3B version of Colby Rasmus

[BigCecil]

Wright-lite

 

Ok - I get that. But Wright has a lifetime .882 OPS. That's a long way from the .685 Lawrie is putting up so far this year...I think Lawrie has .800 OPS ability and potential.

 

How "lite" is the question?

[BigCecil]

The 3B version of Colby Rasmus

 

I don't know what that even means?...Rasmus had a .840 OPS last year in 120 gms and a sub .700 2012. Lawrie Ks a lot but not like Rasmus.

[G-Snarls]

I think the. 950 OPS debut was a tease and he will never be that good again

 

A .270 ish BA,. 320-.330 OBP and 20 HR with 10 SB is going to be about the best I'm willing to hope for. He might have a year or two better than that and some longish slumps.

 

I say he will be a lague average bat. Gold glove caliber defense. Could be perpetual 3-4 WAR.

[BigCecil]

I think the. 950 OPS debut was a tease and he will never be that good again

 

A .270 ish BA,. 320-.330 OBP and 20 HR with 10 SB is going to be about the best I'm willing to hope for. He might have a year or two better than that and some longish slumps.

 

I say he will be a lague average bat. Gold glove caliber defense. Could be perpetual 3-4 WAR.

 

I agree with that line projection for him. Just for interest sake I looked back on 92 and 93 WS teams. Gruber had a .625 OPS in 92 and Sprague sub .700 OPS.

[BarkatToronto]

Lawrie should not be batting 5th against lefties

 

Team needs a better right handed bat after encarnaion. Lawrie has been terrible this year IMO

 

Swings at pitches he should be driving and fouls them.off. I have no problem with him in the lineup but we need a better solution to no. 5

[Key22]

The guy is a spaz. If he can calm down at the plate and he works with Seitzer to hit the ball where it's pitched then you can dream a bit on the kind of player he can become - the guy works hard - the other parts are there. He's 24. I'd like to see a future Seitzer bat or future Paul Molitor. You see he can hit to all fields and he appears to have the pop for 20 homers. But he's gotta calm down at the plate - maybe play some Reggae before the game and put something special in his brownies or something.

[JuniorFelix]

While I wouldn't quite call him a spaz, at least not anymore, I would say some Marley and brownies may help

[eastcoastjaysfan]

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5995&position=3B

[baseballsss]

Lawrie seems to have matured a lot and his D has been exceptional. He has handled a tough assignment well switching back and forth 2nd and 3rd.

 

He busted on to the scene putting up a .950 OPS in 150 PAs in 2011. Since then he has had injuries and issues at the plate.

 

Im no hitting coach. He is 24 and I like the kids offensive potential, but I still see hitches in that swing and an approach where he often jumps at the ball. He swing and miss ratio is high and he often has questionable pitch selection swinging at balls far off the plate. Does anyone hit more chopping foul ground balls?

 

Im a fan of the player. Curious what people think his ceiling is after watching 1350 PAs now.

 

With the Jays exactly what Gnsarls said if he's traded or signs somewhere else then he will become a superstar. That seems to be the way things work for the jays.

[Angrioter]

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5995&position=3B

 

Kouzmanoff is better defender.

[G-Snarls]

With the Jays exactly what Gnsarls said if he's traded or signs somewhere else then he will become a superstar. That seems to be the way things work for the jays.

 

I think this opinion is overstated on this board. Yes, Hill and Rios left and have had some great years. Wells, Thames, Snider, Arencibia, League, and several others have not. Heck, even Doc deteriorated well before the Phillies expected him too.

[eastcoastjaysfan]

In 2012 everyone was disappointed with his line of .273/.324/.405

 

Now those days look the glory days!

[crazy47larry]

I don't know what that even means?...Rasmus had a .840 OPS last year in 120 gms and a sub .700 2012. Lawrie Ks a lot but not like Rasmus.

 

low avg

low obp

alright pop but they both sell out for it too much imo

they both are good athletes which leads you to think they could steal some bags but are clearly lacking something there (IQ, instincts, feel, whatever, etc.)

lawrie can handle the bat better but honestly colbys simpler approach might be better (whole K vs groundout thing there)

colbys swing is so smooth compared to lawries though so i actually have more faith in him offensively long term

colby also is what he is at this point. i still have hope lawrie can tone that swing down though.

 

EDIT: also i dont see lawrie having any consistency offensively. most of his offensive success will probably come from hot streaks like colby's. as we all know when its cold for these guys they can do nothing right. from there it depends on how often lawrie can get dialed in but he will never sustain it for very long with that swing of his.

[Frenchsoup]

Lawrie is a dumb hitter, i can't count how many times he has swung at 3-0 pitches and hit something weak to the opposite field. He can't steal bases and his glove is good but not as exceptional like people seem to think.

[jb22]

Lawrie is a dumb hitter, i can't count how many times he has swung at 3-0 pitches and hit something weak to the opposite field. He can't steal bases and his glove is good but not as exceptional like people seem to think.

 

What are you basing it on when you say his glove isn't exceptional. His glove at 3rd has been exceptional and it may very well be at 2nd as well.

[admin]

Lawrie is a dumb hitter, i can't count how many times he has swung at 3-0 pitches and hit something weak to the opposite field. He can't steal bases and his glove is good but not as exceptional like people seem to think.

 

He seems like someone who let's his emotions get the best of him.

Like say someone gets a HR before him, I can see him going up thinking "Oh yeah, my turn I'm going to kill it."

 

Or say someone pitches him up out of the zone and he can't catch up to it. I can see him swinging for it again just to prove he can hit it. Stupid stuff like that.

[Frenchsoup]

What are you basing it on when you say his glove isn't exceptional. His glove at 3rd has been exceptional and it may very well be at 2nd as well.

 

I am nitpicking his defense but his arm is pretty inaccurate and he seems to always exagerate plays, ie bare hand a ball when he doesn't have to or jump in the air like a crazy person instead of just calmy tossing it over big papi's head. Those fundamental flaws will catch up with you sooner or later.

[jb22]

I am nitpicking his defense but his arm is pretty inaccurate and he seems to always exagerate plays, ie bare hand a ball when he doesn't have to or jump in the air like a crazy person instead of just calmy tossing it over big papi's head. Those fundamental flaws will catch up with you sooner or later.

 

I don't know what more you expect from a 3rd basemen, he has outstanding range/reaction and rarely throws a ball away.

[Atothe]

He alternates between good and bad at bats. No consistenty. He needs to focus in majority of his at bats with the game plan that seizter gives him. The thing is that he pumps himself up yo be ready on the defensive side but he needs to learn to calm things down during his plate appearances. He'll get there. We'll see a more cerebral Lawrie

[Frenchsoup]

I don't know what more you expect from a 3rd basemen, he has outstanding range/reaction and rarely throws a ball away.

 

I dunno maybe i just don't like the guy. The way he yelled at Lind last year, (his supposed best friend) when he didn't understand the situation really rubbed me the wrong way.

[BigCecil]

I dunno maybe i just don't like the guy. The way he yelled at Lind last year, (his supposed best friend) when he didn't understand the situation really rubbed me the wrong way.

 

Yup - yelling at Lind has nothing to do with the quality of his D including accuracy of throws. I don't think he exaggerates anything. He has just been downright impressive and consistent.

[Eddiek19]

Love his D. I'm so sick of seeing him swing and miss, and pull his head off. If he kept his head down through his swing I really don't think he would swing through so manymeatballs.

[Eddiek19]

He would be a much better hitter if he focused on seeing the ball through his swing.

[shortstop]

I think the. 950 OPS debut was a tease and he will never be that good again

 

A .270 ish BA,. 320-.330 OBP and 20 HR with 10 SB is going to be about the best I'm willing to hope for. He might have a year or two better than that and some longish slumps.

 

I say he will be a lague average bat. Gold glove caliber defense. Could be perpetual 3-4 WAR.

 

i think that's what'll happen in the 'likely' scenario...if he figures it out, i think he has the pedigree/determination to be a consistent .300 hitter like he was before coming up to the majors...bit more patience, getting better at recognizing breaking balls/hitting them, and still a little late on swings sometimes...

[Olerud363]

Lawrie seems to have matured a lot and his D has been exceptional. He has handled a tough assignment well switching back and forth 2nd and 3rd.

 

He busted on to the scene putting up a .950 OPS in 150 PAs in 2011. Since then he has had injuries and issues at the plate.

 

Im no hitting coach. He is 24 and I like the kids offensive potential, but I still see hitches in that swing and an approach where he often jumps at the ball. He swing and miss ratio is high and he often has questionable pitch selection swinging at balls far off the plate. Does anyone hit more chopping foul ground balls?

 

Im a fan of the player. Curious what people think his ceiling is after watching 1350 PAs now.

 

There are always semantical questions with this question. Ceiling is by definition the highest level he could reach.

 

Is he going to be Ted Williams?? No. Could he struggle about so/so for many years and all of a sudden go nuts at 29 and have a great 30s?? Sure. We're watching Bautista and EE do it.

 

His ceiling is still Adrian Beltre. He is actually very similiar to Beltre. Beltre had similar numbers (with better health) through age 24. Exploded on the league at 25 with an MVP like year. Then went back to being so/so (with WAR boosted by D) for 5 or 6 years.

 

Then all of a sudden at 31 he puts up a run of real nice seasons.

[BigCecil]

There are always semantical questions with this question. Ceiling is by definition the highest level he could reach.

 

Is he going to be Ted Williams?? No. Could he struggle about so/so for many years and all of a sudden go nuts at 29 and have a great 30s?? Sure. We're watching Bautista and EE do it.

 

His ceiling is still Adrian Beltre. He is actually very similiar to Beltre. Beltre had similar numbers (with better health) through age 24. Exploded on the league at 25 with an MVP like year. Then went back to being so/so (with WAR boosted by D) for 5 or 6 years.

 

Then all of a sudden at 31 he puts up a run of real nice seasons.

 

Semantics? ok - fair enough. I am talking not ceiling in the sense of one big year. What is the ceiling we can expect consistently from him avg year to year. The .950 OPS in 2011 is probably his blip ceiling. a couple of posters have already put some thoughts up on their expectations and I tend to agree with them. Your comments on Beltre are true. He had a production hiatus. Always a great fielder.

[eastcoastjaysfan]

There are always semantical questions with this question. Ceiling is by definition the highest level he could reach.

 

Is he going to be Ted Williams?? No. Could he struggle about so/so for many years and all of a sudden go nuts at 29 and have a great 30s?? Sure. We're watching Bautista and EE do it.

 

His ceiling is still Adrian Beltre. He is actually very similiar to Beltre. Beltre had similar numbers (with better health) through age 24. Exploded on the league at 25 with an MVP like year. Then went back to being so/so (with WAR boosted by D) for 5 or 6 years.

 

Then all of a sudden at 31 he puts up a run of real nice seasons.

 

You're aware that Beltre was playing in Seattle at that time (AKA the place where literally nobody can hit well), correct?