Does anyone play Fan Duel?

[nmrch]

A good guide is that each lineup spot down reduces 0.1 PA/game, with 5 spot being the average for that game. OBP is actually most important (makes sense because it is batter reached or not).

 

1. Calculate how each batter does against that pitcher.

2. Average the OBP for the batters against the pitcher with an adjustment for lineup slot.

3. Use that OBP to calculate team PA/game, then adjust up and down for each batter.

 

Thank you, that makes sense.

 

A follow up question, are you doing anything to adjust a pitchers expected IP based on lineup strength because one would assume that a pitcher is likely to pitch more innings against a weak lineup and vice versa.

 

Also in general, are you using projected IP/projected starts to forecast how many innings a pitcher is likely to pitch per start? Or do you have a more sophisticated algorithm for that?

 

I want to nail this down because a hitters PA per game are pretty stable, the value of pitchers on the other hand can swing pretty wildly if you change their projected IP by even one inning

[nmrch]

Out of 100?

 

yes, sorry for not mentioning that

[NorthOf49]

McCarthy and Porcello are good values but Carrasco could win a 50/50 by himself. Tough decision.

[Boxcar]

McCarthy and Porcello are good values but Carrasco could win a 50/50 by himself. Tough decision.

 

that is like the northiest thing you could say this morning

[nmrch]

I project from performance against team only. TBF is usually similar, but IP will vary.

 

 

can i ask you how you calculate IP and BF and what kind of adjustments you make based on opposing lineup strength?

 

 

 

BTW, that chart was really helpful, shows me i'm on the right track

Here are my (unadjusted for lineup spot) wOBA's against Sanchez and Arrieta

0.28274227366519

0.29028162333516

 

 

and this is without accounting for the pitchers spot, so i'm in the right neighbourhood when it comes to differentiating between pitchers but there's something in my calculations that tilting the numbers in favor of the pitchers.

[Boxcar]

But why don't you go in the all day ones? Sorry, I'm new to this stuff and I'm confused

 

Lineup uncertainty for later games. DK has early which is just chc/stl and det/min. The games starting 7pm or later have no lineups yet.

[NorthOf49]

DraftKings sponsored content is taking over the internet lol. I've never seen anything like it.

[theblujay]

P

Carlos Carrasco

CLE @ HOU

C

Yasmani Grandal

LOS v SDP

1B

Adam Lind

MIL v COL

2B

Scooter Gennett

MIL v COL

3B

Luis Valbuena

HOU v CLE

SS

Brandon Crawford

SFG @ ARI

OF

Christian Yelich

MIA v ATL

OF

Carlos Gonzalez

COL @ MIL

OF

Yasiel Puig

LOS v SDP

 

Here's what I got

[L54]

Last night I used JFaS' Zips projections in the freeroll:

 

320/6543 entries

 

38.41 points

 

 

Planning on playing both FD and DK tonight.

[LTR]

DraftKings sponsored content is taking over the internet lol. I've never seen anything like it.

 

That's Google AdSense or something similar, they know who you are and how to advertise to you.

[BrianV]

So what time do all the lineups normally get posted? I know the last few days have been late... Is this typical?

[LTR]

So what time do all the lineups normally get posted? I know the last few days have been late... Is this typical?

 

I think there is a stipulation that they have to be up at least 3+ hours before game time. Usually they are up 3-5 hours in advance of game time.

[BrianV]

So theoretically, some of the late game lineups may not be in in time for the early ones to start?

 

Hmmm....

[Boxcar]

So theoretically, some of the late game lineups may not be in in time for the early ones to start?

 

Hmmm....

 

happened yesterday with the padres

[SpeedyGose]

That's why DK is nice, they don't lock in all of your players at the start of the first game like FD does.

[LTR]

So theoretically, some of the late game lineups may not be in in time for the early ones to start?

 

Hmmm....

 

They'll pretty much never be up in time, if you have a 6 hour spread between games. So if you're using an optimizer that takes into account line-up position and actual players playing, it's best to just play the evening, afternoon only, or late night only games.

[NorthOf49]

That's Google AdSense or something similar, they know who you are and how to advertise to you.

There's that but DraftKings also pay sites like MLBTR, BP and MLB.com to run full articles with contest details or picks, and ESPN recently bought a large portion of them so ESPN.com is full of DraftKings sponsored features.

Edited April 8, 2015 by NorthOf49

[LTR]

There's that but DraftKings also pay sites like MLBTR, BP and MLB.com to run full articles with contest details or picks, and ESPN recently bought a large portion of them so ESPN.com site is full of DraftKings sponsored features.

 

Ahh, guess they're trying to topple FD

[NorthOf49]

Ahh, guess they're trying to topple FD

Yep. The thinking is that one of DK and FD will eventually topple the other, so both are furiously working to advertise and secure investments. It's an insanely fast-growing industry.

[LTR]

Yep. The thinking is that one of DK and FD will eventually topple the other, so both are furiously working to advertise and secure investments. It's an insanely fast-growing industry.

 

Just look at this board... we've had more people enter games in 2 days then all days last year, lol.

Edited April 8, 2015 by LTR

[L54]

Gose has been a great pick this afternoon vs the Twinkies.

[NorthOf49]

Gose's double (against a lefty) puts me into the money of the $1K tournament. DK seems to have a glitch for my $3 entry where it shows the winnings as $2.70, which isn't possible (it's supposed to be $5.40). Has anyone seen that before?

[Abomination]

Gose's double (against a lefty) puts me into the money of the $1K tournament. DK seems to have a glitch for my $3 entry where it shows the winnings as $2.70, which isn't possible (it's supposed to be $5.40). Has anyone seen that before?

 

Sounds like ties.

[NorthOf49]

Sounds like ties.

Ah, that would make sense, thanks. Hopefully my Cubs-Cards guys can keep coming through.

[Laika]

There's that but DraftKings also pay sites like MLBTR, BP and MLB.com to run full articles with contest details or picks, and ESPN recently bought a large portion of them so ESPN.com is full of DraftKings sponsored features.

 

MLB has a financial stake in DK too. Pretty interesting.

 

Fanduel's UI is much nicer but DK has better guts and functionality. I think the NBA owns a piece of FD or DK as well.

[BrianV]

So, who's the pitcher of the night? Peralta or Kazmir?

 

I hope Dickey has a good night, but I don't feel like putting money on that one.

[LTR]

So, who's the pitcher of the night? Peralta or Kazmir?

 

I hope Dickey has a good night, but I don't feel like putting money on that one.

 

You have to wait for line-ups to know conclusively..... lol

[NorthOf49]

So, who's the pitcher of the night? Peralta or Kazmir?

 

I hope Dickey has a good night, but I don't feel like putting money on that one.

Carrasco, McCarthy or Porcello.

[Abomination]

Does DK use the same point system FD does?

[Nox]

MLB has a financial stake in DK too. Pretty interesting.

 

So does the NHL.