Does anyone play Fan Duel?

[Boxcar]

Payouts are scaled to where you place, and only the top few percent (varies) qualify. Everything else is the same. The problem with the tourneys are that luck can play a much more prominent role.

 

That's why you play mostly 50/50 and then pop a few 3 dollar tourneys for a shot at bigger money. IMO you'll probably make money in tournaments most of the time anyway.

[Abomination]

That's why you play mostly 50/50 and then pop a few 3 dollar tourneys for a shot at bigger money. IMO you'll probably make money in tournaments most of the time anyway.

 

That hasn't been my experience. The 50/50's are the only ones you really have some degree of control over imo.

[LTR]

That hasn't been my experience. The 50/50's are the only ones you really have some degree of control over imo.

 

My FD historical breakdown, by $/game type, from last season (the % success is based on profit not wins, win % would be higher on 50/50's since FD takes 10%):

 

http://i.imgur.com/wGv9qfC.jpg

[43211234]

It's looking relatively safe that I'm going to win the first 3 50/50s I've entered.

 

King Felix has been a beast for me. 5 of my position players are still at 0 points though lol

[Abomination]

My FD historical breakdown, by $/game type, from last season (the % success is based on profit not wins, win % would be higher on 50/50's since FD takes 10%):

 

http://i.imgur.com/wGv9qfC.jpg

 

Do you know the percentage of tourneys that you were in the money for, and was the total tourney profit due to one big win somewhere, or was it more consistent smaller ones?

[Brownie19]

My FD historical breakdown, by $/game type, from last season (the % success is based on profit not wins, win % would be higher on 50/50's since FD takes 10%):

 

http://i.imgur.com/wGv9qfC.jpg

 

Holy Christ - you put $32K down on FanDuels last year? all to make $1,500? I get that bond's don't give you much return on your dollar and the stock market is risky, but that's a f*ton of effort to make a measly $1,500

[Abomination]

Holy Christ - you put $32K down on FanDuels last year? all to make $1,500? I get that bond's don't give you much return on your dollar and the stock market is risky, but that's a f*ton of effort to make a measly $1,500

 

That's not really how it works. The total entries amounted to 32k, but the actual amount of money he's playing with is probably 500 or something.

[jays4life19]

Holy Christ - you put $32K down on FanDuels last year? all to make $1,500? I get that bond's don't give you much return on your dollar and the stock market is risky, but that's a f*ton of effort to make a measly $1,500

 

He was getting paid as he played. Thus he was using his winnings to reinvest into the site. It's not like he put 32k of his own money preseason and then turned a 1,500 profit.

[43211234]

Evening games optimals are a go: https://drive.google.com/folderview?id=0ByKIdMktKhYNb09tWGtDOFNyb28&usp=sharing

 

I assume the update timestamp is MDT?

[LTR]

That's not really how it works. The total entries amounted to 32k, but the actual amount of money he's playing with is probably 500 or something.

 

Thank you for explaining this. Yeah I only deposited money about 3 times all year and total deposit was about $100-$200 each time; so it's all banked money. If you want to win at 50/50's that's how you play. $32K/162 games = <$200 dollars a day/night.

 

Holy Christ - you put $32K down on FanDuels last year? all to make $1,500? I get that bond's don't give you much return on your dollar and the stock market is risky, but that's a f*ton of effort to make a measly $1,500

 

As Abom said that's not how it works. Plus this is a hobby, I play for fun.. the profit is a bonus.

[LTR]

Do you know the percentage of tourneys that you were in the money for, and was the total tourney profit due to one big win somewhere, or was it more consistent smaller ones?

 

Any placement in a tourny is a profit, I placed in 40 out of 180 tournys. My biggest takeaways were $250, $100, and $90 x3. I only entered $5 and $10 tournys.

[Abomination]

Any placement in a tourny is a profit, I placed in 40 out of 180 tournys. My biggest takeaways were $250, $100, and $90 x3. I only entered $5 and $10 tournys.

 

That's actually a very good percentage (imo).

[LTR]

My line-up for this evening:

 

P Corey Kluber

C Yan Gomes

1B Brandon Belt

2B Ben Zobrist

3B Brett Lawrie

SS Brandon Crawford

OF Angel Pagan

OF Mark Trumbo

OF Sam Fuld

[LTR]

That's actually a very good percentage (imo).

 

Yeah, though at the end of the day (I hate that expression) I didn't profit much in tourny's (thought I did better before I analysed it).

[Abomination]

I'm just having fun tonight and winging it, not running any analysis on it (hence Moss vs a lefty for example, and Lowrie and Carter in there vs Kluber). Here's my FD:

 

Bumgarner

Gomes

Moss

Zobrist

Lawrie

Lowrie

Choo

Rua

Carter

[burlingtonbandit]

I think DK is a lot better than FD for tourneys right? FD allows people to play multiple lineups in the same contest while DK doesn't so people can rig it IIRC.

[jays4life19]

In the green in DK now after Cutch and Frazier bombs.

 

Yep. In the green in all my DK lineups (even the non 50/50). Thanks!!

[LTR]

Yep. In the green in all my DK lineups (even the non 50/50). Thanks!!

 

The funny thing is you could have a flawless optimizer and still lose 7 days in a row. That's baseball in small samples. But if you tough it out over the course of the season things should start to balance out ... a la 2002 Oakland A's.

[jays4life19]

The funny thing is you could have a flawless optimizer and still lose 7 days in a row. That's baseball in small samples. But if you tough it out over the course of the season things should start to balance out ... a la 2002 Oakland A's.

 

Yeah, exactly. My original FD lineup out performed JFaS but 7/10 times his lineup would have killed mine. I just got lucky. It's pretty nice of you guys to share your lineups with us people who can't come up with a system. Thanks!

[LTR]

Yeah, exactly. My original FD lineup out performed JFaS but 7/10 times his lineup would have killed mine. I just got lucky. It's pretty nice of you guys to share your lineups with us people who can't come up with a system. Thanks!

 

It makes us stronger if we can bounce ideas off each other and sanity test our systems. Gives us an edge over most other players.

 

My line-ups will be better tomorrow, was still doing a little fine-tuning today.

[BrianV]

I'm in an after hours 50/50 tonight. First time trying FD.

 

Any feedback on this lineup?

 

P Madison Bumgarner

C Buster Posey

1B Brandon Belt

2B Aaron Hill

3B Casey McGehee

SS Chris Owings

OF Mark Trumbo

OF Sam Fuld

OF Jake Smolinski

 

I feel confident that SFG is going to beat Arizona. Picking players out of TEX vs OAK seems much tougher.

[LTR]

I'm in an after hours 50/50 tonight. First time trying FD.

 

Any feedback on this lineup?

 

P Madison Bumgarner

C Buster Posey

1B Brandon Belt

2B Aaron Hill

3B Casey McGehee

SS Chris Owings

OF Mark Trumbo

OF Sam Fuld

OF Jake Smolinski

 

I feel confident that SFG is going to beat Arizona. Picking players out of TEX vs OAK seems much tougher.

 

Jake Smolinski is not playing, so that's a critical error that could cost you. Otherwise not bad...

 

I'd prefer Angel Pagan and/or A.J. Pollock over Trumbo for OF (it's close)

 

Marcus Semien or Brandon Crawford over Owings for SS

 

Joe Panik over Hill for 2B

 

Trumbo, Hill, Owings lose value because of opposing pitcher (Bumgarner).

[BrianV]

Jake Smolinski is not playing, so that's a critical error that could cost you. Otherwise not bad...

 

I'd prefer Angel Pagan and/or A.J. Pollock over Trumbo for OF (it's close)

 

Marcus Semien or Brandon Crawford over Owings for SS

 

Joe Panik over Hill for 2B

 

Trumbo, Hill, Owings lose value because of opposing pitcher (Bumgarner).

 

Any other preferences then Panic? I can't bring him in without removing one of my other SFG players.

 

This is my new revision:

 

P Madison Bumgarner

C Buster Posey

1B Brandon Belt

2B Aaron Hill

3B Casey McGehee

SS Marcus Semien

OF A.J. Pollock

OF Sam Fuld

OF Shin-Soo Choo

[LTR]

Any other preferences then Panic? I can't bring him in without removing one of my other SFG players.

 

This is my new revision:

 

P Madison Bumgarner

C Buster Posey

1B Brandon Belt

2B Aaron Hill

3B Casey McGehee

SS Marcus Semien

OF A.J. Pollock

OF Sam Fuld

OF Shin-Soo Choo

 

Go with Hill if you have to (assuming you can't afford Zobrist).

 

Also I'd go with a number of other guys before I'd go with Choo.

 

These low quantity games are usually a crap-shoot anyway, not enough variables.

[LTR]

Bumgarner against R in Chase is league average. Trumbo, Owings, and Hill are good plays. Or at least my Optimals think so.

 

Are you using halved PF for home players though? Since projections are accounting for home park already (half of games). And away players I'm adjusting PF in consideration of their home park.

[LTR]

Just use the ones you are given to adjust projection. Then double them for the game.

 

That won't work because projections already consider home park. You'd be inflating the projections in the case of DBacks players.

[LTR]

Their projection accounts for half home/half road. So you take the park factor of their home field (which is also halfed) and divide by it to get in neutral park, then use the doubled version of the park the game is in.

 

So Bumgarner today:

 

ERA: 2.95

SFG: 93

ARI: 104

 

2.95/(0.93)*(1.08) = 3.43

 

Yeah, that's basically what I'm doing just lost you in translation initially.

[LTR]

By the way, I thought I read somewhere that FanGraphs PF data is already an average of recent years - so the 2014 data doesn't include just "2014" but the last 3-5 years or so. I was actually averaging 3 years out myself but I think they do this already. Do you know?

[BrianV]

Looksl like tonight is coming down to 'Who had Zobrist in their lineup'. I did not ;(

[LTR]

Looksl like tonight is coming down to 'Who had Zobrist in their lineup'. I did not ;(

 

I did