So what is Brett Lawrie's ceiling now?

[Olerud363]

Pretty conservative for a ceiling, considering Steamer has him at .265/.327/.437 right now. Lawrie also has a better career wRC+ than Coco does.

 

A little health and we're not having this conversation. Lawrie hits .270 .320 .430 in 157 games and hits 17 homers 75 rbis... it just looks close to 20 homers, enough rbis. Looks like a good line for a 23 year old.

 

109 games 11 homers... rate numbers dinged a bit as he is a bit rusty coming back from injuries... it looks puny.

[Olerud363]

I can't even believe you've done this.

 

I think he is confusing guys like Wade Boggs or Big Mac who health willing will win the batting title or the homer crown every year, with guys like Ryne Sandberg... good all around players who could win one or the other once in a long healthy career.

 

The second category is where Lawrie could go if things break right.

 

I am not predicting Lawrie as a guy who will hit .350 for 5 years, or hit 250 homers in 5 years. I don't see him doing anything like that.

[Captain Adama]

Given Lawrie's really high GB rate, I can't ever see him hitting over 20-25 HR a year.

 

He's a terrific guy when it comes to making contact, but it holy s*** take a couple pitches will ya?

 

Ceiling IMO .290 .340 .450 120 wRC+ 4.5 WAR

[Orgfiller]

IMO Lawrie's ceiling is a full season of his 2 month debut with better defense, he's still insanely talented. Will he reach it? Probably not if he doesn't make big adjustments (or whatever his problem is), but a question of ceiling only concerns talent, and if he turns it all around he's top 3 at the position defensively and offensively.

[Eragon]

IMO Lawrie's ceiling is a full season of his 2 month debut with better defense, he's still insanely talented. Will he reach it? Probably not if he doesn't make big adjustments (or whatever his problem is), but a question of ceiling only concerns talent, and if he turns it all around he's top 3 at the position defensively and offensively.

 

When he first came up he seemed to really have a good patient approach at the plate. It's just gotten worse since then. I would have to blame it on combination of pitchers adjusting to him and him trying to do too much.

[Daniel Labude]

When he first came up he seemed to really have a good patient approach at the plate. It's just gotten worse since then. I would have to blame it on combination of pitchers adjusting to him and him trying to do too much.

 

Obviously you have not seen him this year. He isnt swinging at all most of the time. He takes pitches until he has 2 strikes. He has been overly patient to start this year. He actually needs to be more aggressive at this point.

[Eragon]

Obviously you have not seen him this year. He isnt swinging at all most of the time. He takes pitches until he has 2 strikes. He has been overly patient to start this year. He actually needs to be more aggressive at this point.

 

I've seen him try to be patient and then flail at pitches out of the zone or even right in the zone and come up empty. He looks bad.

[Boxcar]

I can't even believe you've done this.

 

If we were doing a draft right now, and every player was available to be picked, I'd probably take him in the second round.

[saskjayfan]

Obviously you have not seen him this year. He isnt swinging at all most of the time. He takes pitches until he has 2 strikes. He has been overly patient to start this year. He actually needs to be more aggressive at this point.

 

I tend to agree...he's taking way too many hittable pitches early in the count.

[Eragon]

I tend to agree...he's taking way too many hittable pitches early in the count.

 

Pitches per AB

 

2011 - 4.1

2012-2013 - 3.7

2014 - 3.8

 

Looking strikes about the same as always.

 

In 2011 he was getting himself into good counts (somehow)... i.e. 18% 3-1 counts. Since then he almost never gets good counts, i.e. 7.3% 3-1 counts . He hasn't hit a single LD yet this year.

 

But the numbers don't tell as much as just watching him. He's not making good contact, his timing looks off. Hopefully it's like last year but this year he heats up sooner.

[Caper]

There is something fundamentally wrong with Lawries approach at the plate right now... He is not squaring up anything.

[mitchf]

If we were doing a draft right now, and every player was available to be picked, I'd probably take him in the second round.

Surely you're crazy?

[Flamingweazel]

Dude is psycho, i see him killing a reporter in a few years and ending up being a part of the "SISTERS" in prison.

[Jim_Ackers_balls]

He looks dumber than a box of rocks.

 

Has "happy feet" at the plate. Fundamentally not sound in the field. He'll be a major leaguer, but I don't think he will be a starter long-term.

[jayswin11]

Steve Buechele

[BlueJaysGirl]

Don't most ball players crest, stat-wise on offence around 30-31? Or is it a little younger. He's just 24. I think some gaudy stats are ahead of him. For me, he just continues to dazzle on defence, and his attitude when he strikes out, etc., has been mitigated. I think hitting 20 HR, and batting .280 consistently is very doable. I suspect he'll have a couple of halcyon years where he's AS material, but mostly pretty solid. It's really nice to have a solid Canadian on the team.

[BlueJayWay]

Late 20s is usually the peak for a hitter offensively.

[SAAviour]

He seems to have matured so far which is nice...but his swing looks terrible right now. Hopefully it's a slump.

[JFD]

Lawrie's problem at the plate has been pitch selection mostly. it seems to take him a while to start seeing the ball well.

I remember he had the same problem last year but at some point he started seeing the ball well and was mashing everything.. then got injured and had to start all over again.

 

the potential is there, he just needs to stay healthy so he can figure it out...

[xposbrad]

Lawrie's problem at the plate has been pitch selection mostly. it seems to take him a while to start seeing the ball well.

I remember he had the same problem last year but at some point he started seeing the ball well and was mashing everything.. then got injured and had to start all over again.

 

the potential is there, he just needs to stay healthy so he can figure it out...

 

I don't know. I think having a good eye is not necessarily something he will for sure improve on. There are a ton of major league players with that same issue. That being said, I don't think he will ever hit for a high average. He'll never live up to the hype we had for him.

[Jayday]

Probably around .275-.285ish AVG, .330ish OBP .450SLUG

15-25HRs with elite/near elite defense. I think his HRs are going to fluctuate every season.

I think that's his realistic cieling. Not bad, not bad.

Probably an annual 3-4 WAR player, but maybe 5 WAR at his peak.

 

But really, who the f*** knows. Pulling these numbers out my ass to what I feel aligns with my instincts.

 

 

Or instinks .