Spring training thread

[GeorgiaPeach]

so at the end of the season, if by some small miracle according to you, the jays make the post season or are right there the last week of the season people will say..oh you were the idiot who said they had zero shot and that will somehow make you feel good? Do you hire someone each morning to kick you in the balls first thing in the morning so your day can't get any worse..lol.

 

Um, I'm actually indifferent if the Jays make the post-season. Sure it would be nice, but I'm not gonna go bonkers like everyone else.

[Sorrow]

I feel like I'm optimistic about the Jays making it to 83 wins this year. They're a good team, they're not a playoff team. Frankly pony up and bring in Jimenez, Drew and Santana (should've been Garza) and then tell us that you're putting forth a team that may contend.

 

Last off-season was a gigantic mess of horrible ideas, the only ways to clean this up in my mind are re-tool (moving guys like Bautista, Happ, etc.) and promoting from within (which we cannot do since we have no depth), fire our front office and re-build or blow the payroll even more and bring in pieces that we should never have had to do to try and salvage this "three year window".

[The_DH]

Gibby, were you a fan in the mid 80s?

[GeorgiaPeach]

Gibby, were you a fan in the mid 80s?

 

I was, but I was 9 & 10 years old in 85 & 86.

[The_DH]

Cool, I had hoped this past season would have been like 1984. That was the year Detroit won big but we stepped up the standings. I never expected world series last year and would have been pleasantly shocked but second or third placeand85 plus wins would have set us up for a real challenge.

[fatcowxlive]

Has there been any good news surrounding Ricky Romero? Or can we write him off forever?

[GD]

Has there been any good news surrounding Ricky Romero? Or can we write him off forever?

 

Just a fluff piece on him.

 

I may be working on something, though..

[glory]

Has there been any good news surrounding Ricky Romero? Or can we write him off forever?

 

I'm sure we'll read a lot about how he is in the best shape of life, determined to win a rotation spot, etc, etc. Ultimately all that matters is what happens when he steps on the mound.

 

I'm not optimistic about him, but if by some chance he regains even his rookie season form, it would be a huge upgrade to the rotation. I'm not holding my breath though. Get Brad Arnsberg on the phone, asap.

[fatcowxlive]

I'm sure we'll read a lot about how he is in the best shape of life, determined to win a rotation spot, etc, etc. Ultimately all that matters is what happens when he steps on the mound.

 

I'm not optimistic about him, but if by some chance he regains even his rookie season form, it would be a huge upgrade to the rotation. I'm not holding my breath though. Get Brad Arnsberg on the phone, asap.

 

If we sign a decent arm then there's only one rotation spot open left (well two because Morrow's made out of glass and will eventually break). I don't think Hutch will get the nod because he has options... I think Redmond will be a long man and Happ will be #5, unless of course Drabek/McGowan/Romero make an impression

[Smokey]

Everything doesn't have to go right. I think you must be blind to the fact that everything went wrong last year! Tumor on a guys spine. A full year of JPA. Over 300 games lost to your core 6 position players...that's 2 full seasons. Losing 40% of your rotation....guys just have to play to their abilities and be reasonably healthy.

 

You're deceiving yourself if you think "everything went wrong last year" and that's the main reason why they didn't succeed... Injuries are a part of this game and when you have no contingency plan in place, you should be expecting the worst. Maybe if its someone like MB going down, then you can blame luck but when it's guys like Bautista, Melky, Morrow or even Reyes and Lawrie, you should be prepared. This year the rotation is in a better shape of far as depth is concerned but the positional depth is terrible and there's essentially no one capable of adequately taking over in case one of the infielders go down.

 

Also, it's pretty naive to use JPA's failure (especially when you were one of his biggest supporters) to illustrate why "everything went wrong", considering the same mistake is essentially being made again with Goins. Hoping for a replacement level talent to suddenly turn things around and relying on them in a contending year is a fools errand and that's exactly what the fat man is doing again.

 

Claiming that there's absolutely zero chance of competing might be going overboard but lets not pretend that this team was actually built like a championship caliber team that failed due to unforeseen circumstances.

[o2cui2i]

If we sign a decent arm then there's only one rotation spot open left (well two because Morrow's made out of glass and will eventually break). I don't think Hutch will get the nod because he has options... I think Redmond will be a long man and Happ will be #5, unless of course Drabek/McGowan/Romero make an impression

 

so much can go wrong with the pitching this year... we'll have to hope that they career years all around and no injuries. kind of like buying a lotto649 ticket. chances are you threw money away, but you just never know otherwise know as the AA system for building a team.

[o2cui2i]

Pretty much. Every year we hear about how every hitter will hit 1.000, and every pitcher will post a 0.00 ERA. Same s***. This is an average ball club.

 

are you nuts??? this team is most likely well below average.

[Sparda]

Also, it's pretty naive to use JPA's failure (especially when you were one of his biggest supporters) to illustrate why "everything went wrong", considering the same mistake is essentially being made again with Goins.

 

If Goins doesn't hit (which, depending on your definition of "hit," he most likely won't), he's still going to play stellar defense. JP did absolutely nothing well aside from hit homers and had nothing to fall back on, unless you're going to put stock into a year's worth of rudimentary pitch framing data. I'm not happy about going into the season with Goins as the starter, but I don't think those situations are the same.

[fatcowxlive]

so much can go wrong with the pitching this year... we'll have to hope that they career years all around and no injuries. kind of like buying a lotto649 ticket. chances are you threw money away, but you just never know otherwise know as the AA system for building a team.

 

It can't possibly be worse than last year in terms of dropping performance vs. expectations, right? We came into last year with NL CY young winner, Mr. Consistency, new ace Morrow and ex-Ace JJ and look what happened there lol. Now we're left with a decent knuckler, Mr. Consistency, Glass Arm and other people, what can possibly go worse?

[Smokey]

If Goins doesn't hit (which, depending on your definition of "hit," he most likely won't), he's still going to play stellar defense. JP did absolutely nothing well aside from hit homers and had nothing to fall back on, unless you're going to put stock into a year's worth of rudimentary pitch framing data. I'm not happy about going into the season with Goins as the starter, but I don't think those situations are the same.

 

I didn't say it's the same situation, I said it's the same mistake as in there's an obvious hole in Goins' game that once again is being overlooked. I can just imagine Sasquatch coming here next offseason and using Goins as a reason why things didn't go as expected.

[Sparda]

I didn't say it's the same situation, I said it's the same mistake as in there's an obvious hole in Goins' game that once again is being overlooked. I can just imagine Sasquatch coming here next offseason and using Goins as a reason why things didn't go as expected.

 

Fair enough. If Goins is a below-average player (which is the likely outcome) and you're classifying that as "something that went wrong," yeah, you probably need to adjust your expectations.

[John_Havok]

Fair enough. If Goins is a below-average player (which is the likely outcome) and you're classifying that as "something that went wrong," yeah, you probably need to adjust your expectations.

 

Something did go wrong if Goins is left to play and ends up a below average player. The decision making in the FO would have went horribly wrong.

[GD]

are you nuts??? this team is most likely well below average.

 

Not really, no. This team is pretty much average. Around 82 wins or so.

[G-Snarls]

Not really, no. This team is pretty much average. Around 82 wins or so.

 

Yep. With a ceiling maybe in the high 80's if most things go right. Adding Jimenez and Drew would raise the mean win expectancy by 4-5 and give us a higher chance of contending. And would also mean fewer things have to go just right in order to be in contention. (ie. specifically we could then more easily tolerate a bad season from Morrow or Happ, and survive a 60+ day DL stint to Reyes or Lawrie)

[The_DH]

Keep in mind, the addition of one decent starter is also the subtraction of a potentially negative starter.

[G-Snarls]

Keep in mind, the addition of one decent starter is also the subtraction of a potentially negative starter.

 

Absolutely. Though with our depth, we really shouldn't have any of those this year. If someone is terrible they will get pulled. We have the depth now and don't have to let someone like Ricky "see if he can work things out" in the majors. Among Hutch, Stroman, Happ, Redmond, Rogers you should be able to find 2 guys capable of 0-2 WAR seasons.

[fatcowxlive]

Not really, no. This team is pretty much average. Around 82 wins or so.

 

Better than last year at least

[Sparda]

Something did go wrong if Goins is left to play and ends up a below average player. The decision making in the FO would have went horribly wrong.

 

If you want to look at the decision in a vacuum, sure. But in the real world, it comes down to what their alternatives are. Do you really want an aging/decling Brandon Phillips on a big contract, who was merely average himself last season? Or Omar Infante on a contract even the Yankees weren't willing to commit to? The alternatives to Goins aren't all that appealing. The upgrades that were available don't make sense from a value added vs. cost perspective. The one thing I will say is that I'm a little pissed the front office didn't make a run at Mark Ellis (although it's hardly a guarantee he'd sign here over STL even if we offered him more money) or bring in a platoon candidate on a minor league deal who isn't named Izturis. But I'm not going to say things "went horribly wrong" when they didn't commit big dollars to a modest upgrade. You're certainly entitled to that opinion though.

[G-Snarls]

If you want to look at the decision in a vacuum, sure. But in the real world, it comes down to what their alternatives are. Do you really want an aging/decling Brandon Phillips on a big contract, who was merely average himself last season? Or Omar Infante on a contract even the Yankees weren't willing to commit to? The alternatives to Goins aren't all that appealing.

 

Where this team was at, and on the heels of the 2013 disaster, it was a hole worth throwing money at. AA is in too deep not to. Heck, he pretty much admitted this by trying to trade for Ian Kinsler (who I would have loved to get btw). A veteran 2B with a couple of years left on contract would be fine given how this team is currently constructed, though a younger guy with star potential would be preferred of course. He's not done though. If Goins really, truly can't hit and is hurting the team, they will look at trades mid season.

[o2cui2i]

It can't possibly be worse than last year in terms of dropping performance vs. expectations, right? We came into last year with NL CY young winner, Mr. Consistency, new ace Morrow and ex-Ace JJ and look what happened there lol. Now we're left with a decent knuckler, Mr. Consistency, Glass Arm and other people, what can possibly go worse?

 

what can possibly go wrong? Dickey can give up as many HRs as last year, Buehrle can have all those innings catch up, Morrow's arm can fall off, Jose and Ed could be out with injuries.... the question is not what can go wrong, it's what might fall their way and to be a .500 team they have to have a lot of things go their way.

[o2cui2i]

Absolutely. Though with our depth, we really shouldn't have any of those this year. If someone is terrible they will get pulled. We have the depth now and don't have to let someone like Ricky "see if he can work things out" in the majors. Among Hutch, Stroman, Happ, Redmond, Rogers you should be able to find 2 guys capable of 0-2 WAR seasons.

 

I think I'd like to have Stroman kept in AAA until someone goes down with an injury or shits the bed. he doesn't have 30 starts in his arm and it would be a shame to burn him out.

[G-Snarls]

I think I'd like to have Stroman kept in AAA until someone goes down with an injury or shits the bed. he doesn't have 30 starts in his arm and it would be a shame to burn him out.

 

For sure. It's just that we shouldn't see anyone throwing 120 s***** innings this year. There are alternatives. Second half of season Stroman would be a logical callup if someone is hurt or stinks.

[fatcowxlive]

what can possibly go wrong? Dickey can give up as many HRs as last year, Buehrle can have all those innings catch up, Morrow's arm can fall off, Jose and Ed could be out with injuries.... the question is not what can go wrong, it's what might fall their way and to be a .500 team they have to have a lot of things go their way.

 

I said what can go worse (than last year) not what can go wrong lol. Last year was a huge disaster. Going from people and Vegas telling us we're #1 in the East to dead last

[Sparda]

Where this team was at, and on the heels of the 2013 disaster, it was a hole worth throwing money at. AA is in too deep not to. Heck, he pretty much admitted this by trying to trade for Ian Kinsler (who I would have loved to get btw). A veteran 2B with a couple of years left on contract would be fine given how this team is currently constructed, though a younger guy with star potential would be preferred of course. He's not done though. If Goins really, truly can't hit and is hurting the team, they will look at trades mid season.

 

I guess it depends on how good you think Goins. Even if Goins can't hit, I think he plays good enough defense to where he can realistically be worth between 1.0 and 1.5 wins. Below average, undoubtedly, but not going to kill you. Phillips was worth 2.6 fWAR (1.6 bWAR) and Infante 3.1 (2.4) with a BABIP spike. So you're realistlcally looking at something in the neighborhood of a 1 win upgrade. That's huge for a team like the Jays, but I think it's questionable whether the cost justifies it. It sounds like they lost out on Ubaldo though, so my perception now is a little different now than it was 10 minutes ago.

[o2cui2i]

For sure. It's just that we shouldn't see anyone throwing 120 s***** innings this year. There are alternatives. Second half of season Stroman would be a logical callup if someone is hurt or stinks.

 

I dont really have expectations for this season. I'm still pretty numb after last year. hopefully we get surprised this year. Beeston and AA's jobs should be riding on it being surprising.