Phillies sign Burnett

[KingKat]

I'm saying I'd agree more with Happ ~ Capuano in a performance vacuum than Capuano at 1/5 > Santana at 3/39, from a Jays perspective in which only one SP signing is possible.

 

I don't understand why the notion that Capuano is a good pitcher and Santana and Happ are bad ones doesn't have more traction. I haven't looked at the projections the way JFaS has but what he says aligns with my own perceptions. I seem to be alone that way.

[KingKat]

It's become hard to read. I like Capuano, but when you close the spreadsheet he's still a 35-year old with injury questions who throws 88. There are very valid reasons for being skeptical about him strolling in and putting up a 2.5 win season when he's only been league average once in the last seven seasons

 

I actually see his age as a positive. It will keep the commitment shorter and he's not so old that he won't be productive in the short term. That's win, win if you ask me.

[FireAlexAnthopoulos]

Honestly, it's for the best that all the free agent pitchers sign elsewhere. Then maybe AA and Beeston can finally be fired when we suck again this year.

[KingKat]

He's also missed about three and a half of the last seven years to injury. Penciling him in for 30 starts this year is pretty dubious.

 

Sure but I'd rather the guy who would be good over however many starts he makes than the guy who will provide below average performance (even if you assume he's a lock for 200).

[KingKat]

I see Santana as having a very similar floor to Capuano with more upside. Factor in him being 4 years younger and being as good a bet as anyone to make 30+ starts and I think he's the far better option for a team that needs to add as many wins as possible.

 

I guess that's where we disagree. I don't see Santana as having a great floor because his value is so dependant on quantity of innings not quality. Injuries can happen to anyone and if something gets in the way of Santana providing his innings, all you've gotten is some below average play. Happ can give you that.

 

Capuano is the uspide play. He'll provide value over limited inning and tremendous value if he pitches a full season. I think the argument for signing Capuano is very similar to the argument for signing Stephen Drew.

[nonamejays]

If the jays do not sign anyone, and go into the season with arguably the worst team in the AL East on paper, should the jays start looking at selling off pieces?

[GeorgiaPeach]

JFaS definitely argues with numbers and I could see how the way he quotes them as gospel could annoy but he doesn't jump around all the place and argue disingeneoulsy.

 

I think disingenuous is a little strong.

[GeorgiaPeach]

I don't think he ever said that. His criteria was proximity to Baltimore and pitching in the NL which made Philadephia an obvious choice if Washington was going to say no.

 

Isn't it weird that people would waste their time speculating or dreaming he would come here then?

[Atothe]

I dunno. Career 98 xFIP- for Capuano and 100 for Santana. Just give me the guy less likely to fall off a cliff for age/injury related reasons.

 

I agree with JFaS here, his case for Capuano plus salary demands make him a better option. Plus he's definitely an upgrade over Happ (mediocre) where he can be used as as swingman. Capuano plus Jiminez would do wonders. Plus if both morrow and Hutch can give a 100 innings of league average or better production. It's a huge win for the jays

[Abomination]

Can we all agree that Ubaldo is likely the best option?

 

Unless we're strapped for cash, then Capuano is a no brainer.

 

Ubaldo is the best option regardless of the cash. We can trade Happ etc to free some up if necessary. Ideally we'd sign Ubaldo AND Capuano, and trade Happ lol.

[GeorgiaPeach]

Just saw this come across the ticker, I'm sad.......my wishlist is fading. Jesus, lets get a 2nd baseman please, and Capuano.

 

Not bashing you at all Jay. But if AJ's main focus was stay close to home, why was anyone dreaming he'd come to Toronto?

[Nabru]

Ubaldo is the best option regardless of the cash. We can trade Happ etc to free some up if necessary. Ideally we'd sign Ubaldo AND Capuano, and trade Happ lol.

 

Was just thinking this exactly.

 

Then get a legit MLB 2B to write up this fantasy, best-case scenario lineup.

 

Reyes

Cabrera

Bautista

Encarnacion

Lind

Lawrie

Rasmus

Drew (most fans' fantasy - not happening)

Navarro

 

Bench

 

Gose

Thole

Sierra

Izturis

 

(Yes, the bench does look crusty)

 

Dickey

Jimenez

Buehrle

Morrow

Capuano

 

Janssen

Santos/Delabar (one traded)

Cecil

McGowan

Loup

Wagner

Redmond/Hutchison (Hutch probably to AAA)

 

Nice.

[GeorgiaPeach]

Yup, him Capuano, Baker and Franklin or Espinosa, that's all.....

 

Baker?

 

I thought both Baker's had signed?

[glory]

I think we need to give up on the idea of getting a new 2B. I don't think it's a priority for the organization. They probably feel, rightly or wrongly, that they can get away with Goins/Izturis.

 

Jimenez is a clear upgrade (at least on paper) over Redmond, and any upgrade is a positive. If that's all they do, I'll take it.

[G-Snarls]

I dunno. Career 98 xFIP- for Capuano and 100 for Santana. Just give me the guy less likely to fall off a cliff for age/injury related reasons.

 

I'll admit to being enthusiastic about the fact Jimenez still shows stretches of being excellent. Recently. Like 2nd half 2013. I don't see Santana or Capuano putting out a stretch like that. Jimenez may not again either but at least he's capable.

Edited February 12, 2014 by G-Snarls

[FireAlexAnthopoulos]

If the jays do not sign anyone, and go into the season with arguably the worst team in the AL East on paper, should the jays start looking at selling off pieces?

That would represent a commitment to an actual direction, and we all know how scared the Jays are of doing that.

[FireAlexAnthopoulos]

Rinse and Repeat........

 

If AA and Beeston didn't "rinse and repeat" mediocrity every year, I wouldn't be "rinsing and repeating" the need to fire their asses.

[LunchBox]

I think we need to give up on the idea of getting a new 2B. I don't think it's a priority for the organization. They probably feel, rightly or wrongly, that they can get away with Goins/Izturis.

 

Goins is a pretty safe bet to be the worst starting position player in the MLB, most definitely "wrongly".

[KingKat]

Isn't it weird that people would waste their time speculating or dreaming he would come here then?

 

Yeah that didn't really make sense. If you write off Pittsburgh because he doesn't want to play there anymore for whatever reason and Washington because they turned him down and Baltimore because pitchers don't trust that org anymore, that still didn't make Toronto the next logical choice. It was more likely another team would emerge. Nobody really discussed Philadelphia but given how perfectly it met his criteria, it seems obvious in hindsight.

[KingKat]

It's all Blair and Davidi's fault.

 

The probably mistook the agent not slamming down the phone for genuine interest.

[FireAlexAnthopoulos]

Every year?

Yes, every year.

 

2010: 85-77, no playoffs

2011: 81-81, no playoffs

2012: 73-89, no playoffs

2013: 74-88, no playoffs

 

The off-season isn't over yet, meat.

AA and Beeston have done nothing all offseason.

[flafson]

I wonder if it will make Baltimore pursuit Santana or Jiminez more now that A.J signed.

[Dick_Pole]

Ok guys, I'm no fan of Santana but when these stats predict Capuano is going to be the FAR superior option it's time to get your head out of the numbers and use common sense.

 

I predict all of these "predictive" stats are going to go into the trash bin in a few years time. They were all backtested for predictive accuracy in a time when no one knew or cared about them. Now every pitcher knows about it and is going for the strikeout. I grew up in a time when a strikeout an inning was an accomplishment reserved for the guys with truly electric stuff...Ryan, Clemens, R. Johnson. When you're in a time when jobbers like JA Happ are striking out a guy an inning you know there's something f***ed up and unsustainable.

 

Basically advanced stats are a tool agents can use to explain why their client isn't a piece of s***:

 

"My client was 8-12 with a 4.50 ERA last year and he pitched on average 5 innings a game because he used his pitches inefficiently trying to K everyone with his mediocre stuff instead of using the top-notch defense behind him to get outs. But because he struck out a lot of guys his xFIP is actually 3.80 which means in reality he's good...give him 5/60!!!!!"

[G-Snarls]

Ok guys, I'm no fan of Santana but when these stats predict Capuano is going to be the FAR superior option it's time to get your head out of the numbers and use common sense.

 

I predict all of these "predictive" stats are going to go into the trash bin in a few years time. They were all backtested for predictive accuracy in a time when no one knew or cared about them. Now every pitcher knows about it and is going for the strikeout. I grew up in a time when a strikeout an inning was an accomplishment reserved for the guys with truly electric stuff...Ryan, Clemens, R. Johnson. When you're in a time when jobbers like JA Happ are striking out a guy an inning you know there's something f***ed up and unsustainable.

 

Some of that increase in pitcher K's and drop in hitters performance is clearly due to the fact that massive doses of anabolic steroids aren't being used by 90% of the hitters anymore.

[RIPEXPOS]

Goins is a pretty safe bet to be the worst starting position player in the MLB, most definitely "wrongly".

 

I'll take that bet.

[KingKat]

This.

 

Love the way Rasmus comes running over to call off Gose, who's camped under a fly ball. UZR anyone?

 

You really think these guys understand UZR or xFIP enough to try to game the system this way? There's like a handfull of players in all of baseball that pay attention to advanced stats.

[G-Snarls]

A center fielder doesn't "take" a fly ball from a corner OF because he's consciously thinking about improving his defensive stats. He just wants to make sure the play gets made. CF is the boss.

[KingKat]

Ya because with millions of dollars on the line no one knows about advanced stats. Give your head a shake.

 

Do you live in a cave? Have you ever seen a player interview? Brandon McCarthy understands advanced stats and it makes him a kind of folk hero in nerd circles. How about instead of giving my head a shake, you start paying attention to baseball.

[Boxcar]

To think that the vast majority of todays ball players don't know anything about advanced metrics is fckn ludicrous. The end.

 

My god, the stupid emanating from all your posts is astounding.

[LunchBox]

Goins is a pretty safe bet to be the worst starting position player in the MLB, most definitely "wrongly".

 

I'll take that bet.

 

I'd insist on excluding position players from MIA, HOU, NYM, CHC, MIN, MIL as they aren't competitive and thus many players will be "starters" by default. Players on remaining teams must receive at least 500 PAs to be considered starters. In the event Goins doesn't reach 500 PAs the bet would be void. If you're truly interested PM me and we can work out the details.