Phillies sign Burnett

[The Cats Ass]

Santana won't do that IMO.

 

There's a better chance that Santana does then Happ...

[TheHurl]

Three threads within 1 minutes

 

Me and BTS beat Ang by 1 minute LOL

 

Ang took it out on the poor Burro!

[Terminator]

Szymborski says 2.9 WAR. It's in the ESPN thread here.

 

So it's worth 22.5 Million? That seems way to high.

[Abomination]

I thought I had read that the Phillies were past their budget already? I wonder if they'll look to trade someone now, since they actually might have a pitching surplus.

[G-Snarls]

The Jays need a reliable mid rotation starter in the worst way. That way if Morrow and Hutch are good it's a good rotation, and if they're not it's much less of a disaster. Pay Santana or Jimenez 13M for a few years and be done with it FFS.

[G-Snarls]

I thought I had read that the Phillies were past their budget already? I wonder if they'll look to trade someone now, since they actually might have a pitching surplus.

 

Directionless team is directionless

[Terminator]

Again, you guys are talking as if he's the only option.

 

He's one of two options?

[eastcoastjaysfan]

Has there ever been a 3 year contract that has been absolutely disastrous for a team? Of course not. This team needs wins TODAY. If we have a bit of negative value from Santana in his third season, who cares? Front load the contract if this is a huge concern. We're past the point of trying to maximize value on every dollar spent.

 

Santana makes this team better today and doesn't hinder the long term health of the team. Absolute no brainer.

 

Watch AA sign him to a 5-6 year deal though lol.

[Angrioter]

Jimenez and Capuano are far better options.

 

and Stroman

[eastcoastjaysfan]

Jimenez and Capuano are far better options.

 

Are we talking about the same Chris Capuano who has only pitched 550 innings since the end of 2007?

[KingKat]

Are we talking about the same Chris Capuano who has only pitched 550 innings since the end of 2007?

 

No, the one who has averaged 163,1 IP over the last three.

[HERPDERP]

No, the one who has averaged 163,1 IP over the last three.

 

ecjf got burnt

[KingKat]

ecjf got burnt

 

Well apparently past IP isn't indicative of future IP so I guess not.

[eastcoastjaysfan]

Past IP aren't really indicative of future IP.

 

lol That's a pretty bold statement to make.

 

I'd be willing to bet that Ervin Santana will pitch more than Dustin McGowan or Brandon Morrow over the next three years.

[eastcoastjaysfan]

ecjf got burnt

 

Yeah I really got burnt because Chris Capuano put together decent innings totals in 2011 and 2012. He's old. He's an injury risk. He pitched the last three years in extreme pitchers parks and put up mediocre results. Excuse me if I don't get an erection over the possibility of getting a few M surplus value on a backend rotation guy.

[Sammy225]

I would rather us not sign anyone and put Strooooman and into the rotation f*** it.

[Terminator]

Chris Capuano is about as good as JA Happ who inspires little confidence. Not sure what the appeal is there.

[GeorgiaPeach]

So, if AA signs Ervin Santana for something like 3/39, will the Toronto media praise his brilliant strategy of waiting out the market to get his guy?

 

Most definitely. Its hockey media types commenting on baseball moves.

[Dylan]

I can't wait till we can start talking about games.

I've developed a hate for the names Ubaldo and Santana, I'd still like them to join us though.

[Anemic0ffense]

One step closer to being right on my prediction of us adding no one.

 

I say the O's get Santana. Indians or a surprise team like the Mariners swoop in and get Jimenez, and AA tries to scam the fanbase on how having Happ as #4 and having sooooo much "depth" will make us competitive.

[KingKat]

Chris Capuano is about as good as JA Happ who inspires little confidence. Not sure what the appeal is there.

 

You must be joking. Have you looked at their K/BB?

[The_DH]

100 million that could be spent elsewhere more efficiently and improve the team more for now and the long haul. You make a good point about his replacements as well, who are probably 3 WAR over 3 years.

 

How is the money going to be spent elsewhere? No other useful free agents available, we're a last place team we have to improve piece by piece.

[Terminator]

This is a ridiculous statement.

 

Happ's xFIP last 3 years: 4.59, 3.92, 4.82

Capuano: 3.67, 3.97, 3.67

 

No it is not ridiculous. The past two seasons Capuano has put up 3.2 to Happ's 2.9. The projections are split on who will be better next season. A 35 year old Capuano may have the edge, but if so, it isn't by much.

[Terminator]

You must be joking. Have you looked at their K/BB?

 

Not joking. Projections are split on who will be better next season. Past two years have been very close in WAR. Capuano is 35, Happ is 31. It's a lot closer than you think.

[KingKat]

Back on topic: This is an absolute steal for Ruben Amaro. Something I'd never think I'd say.

 

Probably just landed on his lap given Burnett's preferences. Washington will look foolish for passing him up when they keep losing to him. Should be good for that rivalry.

[G-Snarls]

Back on topic: This is an absolute steal for Ruben Amaro. Something I'd never think I'd say.

 

Perfect deal for both sides

[G-Snarls]

Probably just landed on his lap given Burnett's preferences. Washington will look foolish for passing him up when they keep losing to him. Should be good for that rivalry.

 

Especially if Stras or Zimmerman goes down with injury

[Terminator]

No its not. I also don't see any split projections anywhere.

 

Past WAR is not predictive of future WAR. Use predictive stats such as xFIP and SIERA.

 

Steamer projects Happ with 1 WAR and CC with 1.6. Oliver has those numbers reversed, 1 WAR for CC and 1.6 for Happ. Numbers taken from fangraphs.

 

And I used past WAR to illustrate how Happ being as good of a pitcher isn't such a "ridiculous" claim as he's basically done it in the most recent past, not as a predictive measure.

 

You're kind of an *******, btw.

[KingKat]

 

You're kind of an *******, btw.

 

Calling the guy who creates the most free analytic content on this forum an *******, classy.

[Abomination]

Perfect deal for both sides

 

I still have to think the Phillies will need to dump some salary, along with likely a starter. Kendrick is probably the most obvious choice (no I don't want him).