Blue Jays "in the lead" to sign Santana or Jimenez

[z3r0s]

I'm really surprised at the amount of people OK with Ubaldo. I just see so much disaster potential there. 30 years old, 4 consecutive years of declining velo, walked almost 5/9 in 2012, known ******* etc... I haven't felt this bad about a rumoured target since JJ.

 

2012 looks like an outleir to me. Pretty much all of his stats regressed to his recent (5 years) career means in 2013, including his FIP and xFIP.

 

If the market doesn't like him and you can get him on a 4 year deal, I don't see the disaster you do.

[Laika]

I'm really surprised at the amount of people OK with Ubaldo. I just see so much disaster potential there. 30 years old, 4 consecutive years of declining velo, walked almost 5/9 in 2012, known ******* etc... I haven't felt this bad about a rumoured target since JJ.

 

There's a right price for everyone.

 

The Jays definitely have a small market advantage with these compensation free agents. What teams do is essentially throw a $ value on their forfeited draft picks and subtract that from their highest offer. So the market value of Ubaldo and Santana is depressed by an amount that exceeds what the Blue Jays would give up in draft picks if they sign one of them, since the value of a second rounder is much less than a first.

 

Certain teams might also overvalue their first round picks, in general, so the offers that Ubaldo and Santana have been receiving might actually be irrationally low.

 

Maybe they can pounce on a Kyle Lohse type of situation (I thought he would get much more than 3/33 but the comp f***ed him over, and he signed super late). If we're being optimistic, Toronto has an opportunity here. They can potentially grab an undervalued asset while also using a small financial advantage, effectively putting two cherries on top of a kind of gross free agent sundae.

[OBPlover]

I'm really surprised at the amount of people OK with Ubaldo. I just see so much disaster potential there. 30 years old, 4 consecutive years of declining velo, walked almost 5/9 in 2012, known ******* etc... I haven't felt this bad about a rumoured target since JJ.

 

I don't think it's really about everyone liking Ubaldo, but it's a reaction to the scarce pitching options that the Jays have. Any trades would mean giving up one or both of the Jays top pitching prospects. So that's basically out. The best free agent pitcher out there is being pursued by the richest teams in baseball, so Tanaka is likely unattainable.

 

If the Jays was to have any hope of a 2014 post season then they need to sign one of the leftover pitchers and that pitcher has to produce. Ubaldo is the one most likely to do that, despite his problems. Otherwise it's another 75-85 win season and sitting on the couch come playoff time.

[GD]

If we do go for Santana or Ubaldo, hopefully people who were opposed to tanking will now see the benefits of it. Thank jeebus we got a protected pick.

[z3r0s]

Yeah, for sure there is a price point where both start to make sense, and there is definitely a situation under which such a price point becomes realistic. The 4/64 ballpark deal thrown around is not something I can get behind though. For either arm.

 

Even at that contract it makes some good sense to me. He only needs to be good for 1.8 WAR a year (using 9M per WAR) to break even and he could potentially provide some surplus. He has a history for being a 3 win player with the exception of 2012. I don't think you bank on 3 wins per year for each of the 4 years, but I think he's a decent bet to be worth that contract.

 

Given what else we would through out there in the rotation, its probably worth giving a contract to a guy even if it doesn't come with big surplus value.

[Angrioter]

Esmil Rogers outing right now

 

Circuito B

http://streaming.lidom.com/

[Laika]

Yeah, for sure there is a price point where both start to make sense, and there is definitely a situation under which such a price point becomes realistic. The 4/64 ballpark deal thrown around is not something I can get behind though. For either arm.

 

Ubaldo and Santana are miles apart for me.

 

K/9 career and 2013: 7.06/6.87 ; 8.27/9.56

GB% career and 2013: 39.8/46.2 ; 47.6/43.9

HR/FB career and 2013: 11.0/12.4 ; 8.7/9.0 (career = heavily Coors!)

WAR career vs. IP: 19.6 in 1682.2 ; 23.6 in 1275.2

 

avg FBv was almost the same between them in 2013.

 

Ubaldo is just a farrrr more talented pitcher. Stuff, profile, age, upside, downside, league/park transition concerns... almost everything comes up Ubaldo.

 

Santana can suck eggs. He probably gets less money though, so there's that. I wouldn't even want to give Santana 40M.

[Ziggyy108]

Ubaldo and Santana are miles apart for me.

 

K/9 career and 2013: 7.06/6.87 ; 8.27/9.56

GB% career and 2013: 39.8/46.2 ; 47.6/43.9

HR/FB career and 2013: 11.0/12.4 ; 8.7/9.0 (career = heavily Coors!)

WAR career vs. IP: 19.6 in 1682.2 ; 23.6 in 1275.2

 

avg FBv was almost the same between them in 2013.

 

Ubaldo is just a farrrr more talented pitcher. Stuff, profile, age, upside, downside, league/park transition concerns... almost everything comes up Ubaldo.

 

Santana can suck eggs. He probably gets less money though, so there's that. I wouldn't even want to give Santana 40M.

 

Couldn't agree more man. I really hope we get Ubaldo.

[z3r0s]

That's far too big an investment for a 1-win upgrade. Paul Maholm gives you a win. Hutchison/Stroman give you a win. f***ing Todd Redmond and Esmil Rogers probably give you a win. Committing 4/64 for a guy who gives you a 1-1.5 win upgrade in 2014 and who you're crossing your fingers can average 1.8 WAR per year over the life of the deal (he wouldn't be projected to) is just bad management. The FO has only themselves to blame for being backed into this particular corner.

 

I think you are mis-understanding what I was saying there. 1.8 WAR per year is what he has to produce to be worth the contract (base on the 9M / WAR figure that you may or may not agree with). I think Ubaldo is a 3 win pitcher for the next few years personally. He also has the upside to be a 4 - 5 win guy any given year.

[Angrioter]

Couldn't agree more man. I really hope we get Ubaldo.

 

NJH fanboy ^^^^

 

But yess......Ubaldo is the right choice over Santana and Tanaka (+120 millioms)

Garza in a short deal could be much better.

[GD]

Ubaldo and Santana are miles apart for me.

 

Yeah. I don't want either, but if I had to choose gun to my head, it's easily Ubaldo.

[z3r0s]

This is where we disagree then. I don't even expect him to average 2 wins per year over the next 4.

 

Time will tell which of us is closer. I just see the upside he has vs the floor he needs to achieve to not make the contract an albatross makes for a good buy.

[Abomination]

I'm really surprised at the amount of people OK with Ubaldo. I just see so much disaster potential there. 30 years old, 4 consecutive years of declining velo, walked almost 5/9 in 2012, known ******* etc... I haven't felt this bad about a rumoured target since JJ.

 

Really if you consider his 2012 an outlier (which seems likely for several reasons), he's been incredibly consistent before and (what is hopefully) after the velocity drop (velocity using fangraph's FA).

 

2009: Velocity: 96.0 xFIP: 3.59 Sierra: 3.77 K/BB: 2.33

2010: Velocity: 95.8 xFIP: 3.60 Sierra: 3.68 K/BB: 2.33

 

2011: Velocity: 93.9 xFIP: 3.71 Sierra: 3.74 K/BB: 2.31

2013: Velocity: 92.1 xFIP: 3.62 Sierra: 3.74 K/BB: 2.43

 

Keep in mind that the accuracy of velocity the last few years with pitchfx being unable to differentiate well between the different kinds of fastballs is iffy, although there's no doubt he's lost some. Also, 92.1 puts Ubaldo 30th in the league in velocity last year among qualified starters.

[Atothe]

Tanaka or nil

[Abomination]

You can just take a recent 31-start sample and eliminate it. Well you can, but your projection is going to suffer.

 

If you believe it is an outlier, and the numbers bounce right back to where they were after it, I don't see why you can't. Including it is likely to throw the projection off by more than eliminating it does.

[Dr. Dinger]

Wow, how bad must Garza's medicals be? Something is definitely up there.

[Dr. Dinger]

Sure, if you can identify the cause of the outlier and are confident that it won't happen again. What happened in 2012?

 

His wife slept with Avisail Garcia, maybe?

[Abomination]

Sure, if you can identify the cause of the outlier and are confident that it won't happen again. What happened in 2012?

 

He basically pulled a Romero lol. Apparently almost literally "forgot" how to throw due to the injuries he suffered in 2011 which threw out his mechanics. His return to the same peripherals in 2013 as he had prior to that suggest that he's got it fixed (or adapted) even if the velocity hasn't returned.

 

It was like I had the ball in my hand but I didn't know what to do with it," Jimenez said. "It was like I had never put a ball in my hand.

 

...

 

Jimenez would spend hours watching video of his most successful years and comparing it to video of how he currently pitched. The differences were striking. Who was this guy? The new Ubaldo stopped using his left shoulder to balance himself, which in turn sapped him of all the torque that he used to create to throw the ball at high speeds. The new Ubaldo could hardly muster a ball over 90 mph. His delivery had become slow, deliberate and calculated. It was if he had been trying to deconstruct every movement.

 

http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/43634906/

 

(If he hadn't bounced back to the same numbers in 2013, I wouldn't be considering 2012 and Outlier btw)

[Laika]

Wow, how bad must Garza's medicals be? Something is definitely up there.

 

Yeah seems weird. There's no obvious reason for him to still be out there aside from bad medicals or ludicrous contract demands, and the media hasn't got even a whiff of the latter.

[Dr. Dinger]

Ubaldo and Santana are miles apart for me.

 

K/9 career and 2013: 7.06/6.87 ; 8.27/9.56

GB% career and 2013: 39.8/46.2 ; 47.6/43.9

HR/FB career and 2013: 11.0/12.4 ; 8.7/9.0 (career = heavily Coors!)

WAR career vs. IP: 19.6 in 1682.2 ; 23.6 in 1275.2

 

avg FBv was almost the same between them in 2013.

 

Ubaldo is just a farrrr more talented pitcher. Stuff, profile, age, upside, downside, league/park transition concerns... almost everything comes up Ubaldo.

 

Santana can suck eggs. He probably gets less money though, so there's that. I wouldn't even want to give Santana 40M.

 

The biggest thing for me is the HR rate. Santana would get lit up like a Christmas tree in the AL East parks.

[Dr. Dinger]

Yeah seems weird. There's no obvious reason for him to still be out there aside from bad medicals or ludicrous contract demands, and the media hasn't got even a whiff of the latter.

 

I read whispers of elbow problems on BP late in the season. Considering there's no comp pick attached, and his track record is much better than both Baldy and Ervin, the lack of Garza news is very telling.

[Angrioter]

The biggest thing for me is the HR rate. Santana would get lit up like a Christmas tree in the AL East parks.

 

Santana - Dingers at home

2011 - Angels - 14 (PF -5%)

2012 - Angels - 17 (PF -5%)

2013 - Royals - 18 (PF -6%)

 

Blue Jays PF - Santana's hypothetically-dingers

2011 - +7% = 14 + (5+7)% = ~16

2012 - +7% = 17 + (5+7)% = ~20

2013 - +7% = 18 + (6+7)% = ~21

 

Knowing that Bos, Yanks, O's and Tor are parks prone to dingers, Santana could easily allow 40-45 dingers per season.

[Laika]

I read whispers of elbow problems on BP late in the season. Considering there's no comp pick attached, and his track record is much better than both Baldy and Ervin, the lack of Garza news is very telling.

 

All pitchers are time bombs. Even if his bow looks weird as f***, that might just be an opportunity to get Garza on a 1-2 year steal of a contract.

 

I mean, Napoli's knees looked like garbage before 2013 and it worked out handsomely for Boston.

[GeorgiaPeach]

That's the price of Shark.

 

And hopefully we're not paying that price.

[Laika]

Santana - Dingers at home

2011 - Angels - 14 (PF -5%)

2012 - Angels - 17 (PF -5%)

2013 - Royals - 18 (PF -6%)

 

Blue Jays PF - Santana's hypothetically-dingers

2011 - +7% = 14 + (5+7)% = ~16

2012 - +7% = 17 + (5+7)% = ~20

2013 - +7% = 18 + (6+7)% = ~21

 

Knowing that Bos, Yanks, O's and Tor are parks prone to dingers, Santana could easily allow 40-45 dingers per season.

 

How many 40+ surrendered home run seasons have there even been since the steroid era "ended"? How many ever?

 

In 2002 Ramon Ortiz game up 40 bombs and still had an ERA of 3.77. HOW IS THAT EVEN POSSIBLE, RAMON?

[Dr. Dinger]

All pitchers are time bombs. Even if his bow looks weird as f***, that might just be an opportunity to get Garza on a 1-2 year steal of a contract.

 

I mean, Napoli's knees looked like garbage before 2013 and it worked out handsomely for Boston.

 

I would love to get him on a value contract. If all three were equally healthy, I'd take Garza by a mile over Ubaldo and Ervin. I really don't want Ervin at any price.

[Frenchsoup]

I don't give a f*** anymore... just sign Jimenez. Pay him. The Blue Jays are at the point where their $/WAR figure is so much higher than average that the money barely matters. An extra four wins over 2014-15 is worth an utter crapload to both the current front office and the franchise as a whole. Plus, there are no alternatives... the really elite free agents won't take our money and AA isn't willing to pay them anyway (five year rule). What are we waiting for. Get 'er done.

 

I think they will, unfortunately i think it will be santana though.

[Angrioter]

How many 40+ surrendered home run seasons have there even been since the steroid era "ended"? How many ever?

 

In 2002 Ramon Ortiz game up 40 bombs and still had an ERA of 3.77. HOW IS THAT EVEN POSSIBLE, RAMON?

 

I would love to get him on a value contract. If all three were equally healthy, I'd take Garza by a mile over Ubaldo and Ervin. I really don't want Ervin at any price.

 

2000 - Lima - 48

2011 - Arroyo - 46

2004 - Moyer - 44

2004 - Milton - 43

2002 - Ortiz - 40

2005 - Milton - 40

[Jays]

2000 - Lima - 48

2011 - Arroyo - 46

2004 - Moyer - 44

2004 - Milton - 43

2002 - Ortiz - 40

2005 - Milton - 40

 

2014 - Santana - 67 (BlueJays)

[xposbrad]

All pitchers are time bombs. Even if his bow looks weird as f***, that might just be an opportunity to get Garza on a 1-2 year steal of a contract.

 

I mean, Napoli's knees looked like garbage before 2013 and it worked out handsomely for Boston.

 

Twins already told his agent they'd meet his price on a short term deal. He's stated he's looking for a long term deal.