The one and only Masahiro Tanaka posting and bidding thread

[Key22]

Anyone else think the Jay's will essentially stand pat?

 

The team has holes in the rotation, catcher, second base and possibly left field.

 

It's not completely different than what happened before the 2013 season though.

 

Last year we were not sure about Melky in left. Izturas and Boni were going to be a platoon at 2nd base. JPA was going to be poor.

 

The rotation had an injury prone Johnson and Morrow and a "hopeful to rebound Romero".

 

This year we have an injury prone Morrow and no expectation on Romero to ever come back. And a lot of mediocre fillers in place of the number 2 starter hopeful in Johnson.

 

I still think the team needs to be a top 5 ERA to have a chance at the playoffs.

 

Can

Morrow

Dickey

Beurhle

Happ

Hutchison

et al.

 

Produce an ERA that exceeds Bos, TBAY, BAL, NYY - if the answer is no then we're not making the playoffs - NYY and BOS should outscore us. If they also have better pitching we're done.

 

We're in win now mode - so rather than talking about number 3 starters and what makes a number 3 starter and innings pitched - and howmuch money so and so will cost and giving up draft picks - it's REALLY about having a rotation and pen that betters Bos, NYY, Bal, TB. You have to pitch better than them if you want to make the playoffs - we'll probably score enough runs if the team is healthy.

 

Does a Dickey, Beurhle, Morrow, ?, ? rotation get it done in the AL EAST?

[Abomination]

Anyone else think the Jay's will essentially stand pat?

 

I don't think we will. I believe we will add one #3 or better starter, but I don't know whether that will come via trade or FA.

[Key22]

Even if we do I question whether it will be enough. Our pen is probably on par with Bos/NYY - if Santos and Jansen ar eboth healthy and perform and Delabar/Cecil do pretty much what they did last year we have a pretty great pen.

 

I think it's really simple with the success teams have in relation to team era which is largely the result of the rotations.

 

If you get list the Bos/NYY/TB rotations and stack them up against our 5 what do you have. For instance if Kuroda is New York's number 3 starter but he would be deemed our ace then they're going to beat us. If Lackey is Bos' number 3 and he's be our number 2 we're in trouble.

 

Dickey is our Ace. Where does Dickey slot into the Bos/TB and NYY rotations - would he be their number 3? If so we're done because AA would then have to go out and get someone who betters Dickey and arguably can stand up against Price/Sebathia. Out of the top four rotation spots if we don't have the ace to match their ace's then we would probably have to better them in the number 2,3,4 slots in the rotation as number 5s typically get less starts. This is because Bos/NYY will probably outscore us.

 

NYY (general projectable numbers based on last 3-5 years)

 

C. Sabathia (210IP 1.25)

H. Kuroda (200 IP 1.15 WHIP)

I. Nova (~150IP 1.4 WHIP)

D. Phelps ( 90IP 1.4 WHIP)

A. Warren (80 IP 1.4 WHIP)

 

Not a great rotation as it sits - but Pineda may come back.

 

BOS

 

 

 

 

Starting Rotation

J. Lester (210 IP 1.3 WHIP)

J. Lackey (170 IP 1.3 WHIP)

C. Buchholz (140IP 1.2 WHIP)

J. Peavy (150IP 1.15 WHIP)

R. Dempster (140 IP 1.4 WHIP)

 

TOR

Dickey (220 IP 1.25 WHIP)

Beurlhe (200 IP 1.35 WHIP)

Morrow (120 IP 1.35 WHIP)

Happ (100 IP 1.45 WHIP)

Rogers (130 IP 1.4 WHIP)

 

It's not as bad as people think but it's also nowhere near as good as Boston.

Edited January 4, 2014 by Key22

[Key22]

It is proven to be a reliable number walks plus hits per innings pitched. ERA is somewhat related to team defense, parks - so are hits allowed to an extent. Good WHIP tends to equal good WAR and there was an article illustrating just that. So while I could have found their WAR it was easier to get the WHIP stat so I used that.

 

Pitchers who walk few and give up few hits per innings are generally good pitchers. Pitchers who walk a lot of people and give up a lot of hits tend to stink.

 

What is interesting is that our rotation is somewhat comparable to NYY - also a reason they didn't make the playoffs either.

 

I've noted before that team ERA is critical - in the NL the top 5 teams in ERA were the teams that made the playoffs - in the AL the 5 teams that made the playoffs were all in the top 7. KC scored so few runs was why they didn't make it.

 

When I put up the comparison it is actually nice to see that our top two are quite comparable with the top two of the other teams - it's at least respectable 1-2. Where we get beaten is 3-5 and it is pretty clear that the superior WHIPs of the 3-5 pitchers in Boston helped lead them to a top 7 team ERA while we were 12th. Lowering hits and lowering walks = lowering runs against.

 

Granted WHIP doesn't fully appreciate the type of hits - Dickey and Beurhle seem to give up a lot of home runs.

[LunchBox]

To the best of my understanding, hits are fielding dependent and WAR is calculated using fielding independent measures, there's probably a correlation between WHIP and WAR but it's not likely significant.

 

I'm pretty sure he meant to say there's a strong correlation between WHIP and ERA?

 

Not that it really matters, there's little value in evaluating rotations on this basis.

Edited January 4, 2014 by LunchBox

[GD]

Um, guys, not that difficult lol. Having a lower walk rate lowers WHIP because you'll have less walks per inning, and it lowers your FIP cause it's a DIPS stat, and a lower FIP results in a higher fWAR, so yeah, WHIP is correlated to fWAR. It has a -.473 or so r^2 (all individual seasons since 1947 min 50 IP). The lower the WHIP, the higher the fWAR, the higher the fWAR, the lower the WHIP.

 

They're correlated.

[GD]

That wasn't at issue.

 

Apparently it was.

 

Link?

 

You weren't sure of the correlation between the two.

 

there's probably a correlation between WHIP and WAR but it's not likely significant.

 

And LunchBox said this, which turned out to be fairly incorrect. Their correlation was being questioned, at the very least by LB.

[GD]

That's probably R. R^2 would be .224. Also WAR is counting and WHIP isn't, so why even compare unless you're converting WAR to a rate stat.

 

It's whatever the hell the =CORREL function gave me in excel, lol. What's the difference? And I compared them because that was what the topic at hand was. I wouldn't have otherwise.

[GD]

R^2 is just that squared. Use =RSQ(y-values, x-values) for R^2.

 

Yup, I got .224, rounded. Why would you square it as opposed to just the R value?

[LunchBox]

And LunchBox said this, which turned out to be fairly incorrect. Their correlation was being questioned, at the very least by LB.

 

No I wasn't, you misunderstood but no harm done as your explanation was considerably better.

[GD]

No I wasn't, you misunderstood but no harm done as your explanation was considerably better.

 

You said there's probably a correlation (which there is) but that it's probably not significant (which it pretty well is (significant), I would say). Where'd I misunderstand? I don't quite see.

[LunchBox]

That the correlation isn't strong enough to use WHIP as a substitute for FIP and by extension WAR to evaluate a pitching staff. I guess you thought I was referring to mathematical significance, I don't know?

[GD]

That the correlation isn't strong enough to use WHIP as a substitute for FIP and by extension WAR to evaluate a pitching staff. I guess you thought I was referring to mathematical significance, I don't know?

 

Ah, I thought you were just saying that they weren't very strongly correlated period. Yeah, FIP is .452, much closer.

[GD]

Dial it down.

 

Same could be said for you. You haven't exactly been calm either and it was a very easy to misinterpret post.

 

Are you asking what the difference is between a correlation coefficient and a coefficient of determination? If so, it's simply the latter can be used to analyze multiple x variables relationships with y, rather than a singular x variable. If you're asking why you should use r^2 ... consistency with the often used regression analysis in other baseball statistics.

 

Thank you.

[Key22]

Sorry guys being in Hong Kong I am not able to post quickly to questions. The article (who knows where it is) - looked at pitchers in general segments - the top 20 a cross section in the middle of the league and bottom of the barrel - in general the pitchers considered to be elite had the lowest WHIP - the middle all had much higher WHIPS but much better than the dregs at the bottom of the league.

 

While defense contributes to hits allowed - it contributes to ALL pitchers on a pitching staff - a line drive 8 feet over the shortstops head into the gap is going to be a hit no matter who the defense is. Looking at WHIP over several years - you can say look at just the WHIP of a Roy Halladay VS Gustavo Chacin and while with the same defense you know which one is the better pitcher. I've liked the WHIP stat since I saw it. And while it somewhat indicates ERA - ERA isn't a completely useless stat. Over time and for starting pitchers that stat still tells you a general class the pitcher is in. The teams with the top 5 ERA all made the NL post season and 5/7 in the AL made it.

 

What I want in a pitcher is a guy who doesn't walk people and doesn't give up hits and preferably doesn't give up a bunch of runs. WHIP and ERA cover this. And sure pitcher X with a horrible team may have a few more hits against because his shortstop is Izturas while pitcher Y has Ozzie Smith but that's part of the fun - when Roy Halladay is posting 1.05 WHIPs and putting up low ERAs and winning 18-20 games while losing 10 on a team that STUNK like the Jays for a decade - it's a bit more impressive than some guy in a pitchers park with defensive wizards and juggernaut offenses.

[Terminator]

For what it's worth, two blogs are reporting that the Jays are heavy on Tanaka.

 

http://blogs.thescore.com/djf/

 

http://www.bluejaysplus.com/jays-heavy-tanaka-starting-pitching/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=jays-heavy-tanaka-starting-pitching&utm_reader=feedly#sthash.jExUANqg.dpbs

[KingKat]

For what it's worth, two blogs are reporting that the Jays are heavy on Tanaka.

 

http://blogs.thescore.com/djf/

 

http://www.bluejaysplus.com/jays-heavy-tanaka-starting-pitching/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=jays-heavy-tanaka-starting-pitching&utm_reader=feedly#sthash.jExUANqg.dpbs

 

That's really only one blog with the other relaying what the other is reporting.

[DuckDuckGose]

Sorry guys being in Hong Kong I am not able to post quickly to questions. The article (who knows where it is) - looked at pitchers in general segments - the top 20 a cross section in the middle of the league and bottom of the barrel - in general the pitchers considered to be elite had the lowest WHIP - the middle all had much higher WHIPS but much better than the dregs at the bottom of the league.

 

While defense contributes to hits allowed - it contributes to ALL pitchers on a pitching staff - a line drive 8 feet over the shortstops head into the gap is going to be a hit no matter who the defense is. Looking at WHIP over several years - you can say look at just the WHIP of a Roy Halladay VS Gustavo Chacin and while with the same defense you know which one is the better pitcher. I've liked the WHIP stat since I saw it. And while it somewhat indicates ERA - ERA isn't a completely useless stat. Over time and for starting pitchers that stat still tells you a general class the pitcher is in. The teams with the top 5 ERA all made the NL post season and 5/7 in the AL made it.

 

Only caveat is that defensive shifts can reduce the BABIP of LD's or any batted ball.

 

As JFaS also said WHIP is a great stat but, there are other stats that have improved on what WHIP has to offer, so why not use them?

[DuckDuckGose]

That's really only one blog with the other relaying what the other is reporting.

 

Ya, it's just other blogs rehashing the rumours that have come out.

[Terminator]

Ya, it's just other blogs rehashing the rumours that have come out.

 

Not really. If you actually read either blog they both are claiming to have sources that are telling them that the Jays are in on Tanaka to at least some degree. King (not be confuse with Kingkat) highlighted this above.

[DuckDuckGose]

Not really. If you actually read either blog they both are claiming to have sources that are telling them that the Jays are in on Tanaka to at least some degree. King (not be confuse with Kingkat) highlighted this above.

 

http://dailysnark.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/multiple-sources.gif

 

FWIW the Jays have connected themselves to Tanaka. Unfortunately, with the new posting system they may be out of it before the process even starts,

[jays4life19]

At what point would you want AA to duck out of the Tanaka sweepstakes?

 

I'm thinking the max we should go is 5 years and 100 million + 20 million posting fee. It's obviously alot - but we might be able to convince him to only take 5 years so he can get back on the market at age 30.

 

I still think the Cubs are going to offer him something crazy like 7 years and 140 million.

[Abomination]

At what point would you want AA to duck out of the Tanaka sweepstakes?

 

I'm thinking the max we should go is 5 years and 100 million + 20 million posting fee. It's obviously alot - but we might be able to convince him to only take 5 years so he can get back on the market at age 30.

 

I still think the Cubs are going to offer him something crazy like 7 years and 140 million.

 

MAYBE 6/120 + posting, but that would make me extremely uncomfortable.

[Abomination]

Interesting, the posting fee for Tanaka will be split up over 2 years, 13M next year and 7M in 2015.

[jays4life19]

Interesting, the posting fee for Tanaka will be split up over 2 years, 13M next year and 7M in 2015.

 

Japanese Posting Fee To Be Split Over Two Years

By Zach Links [January 7 at 7:16pm CST]

 

Under the new system, the maximum $20MM posting fee for Japanese players calls for teams to pay in two installments, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (on Twitter). The NPB club posting their player will get $13MM in year one and $7MM in year two.

 

The idea behind that wrinkle, Rosenthal tweets, is to give more clubs a realistic opportunity to bid on a top flight talent. That could have an impact on this year's chase for Masahiro Tanaka. There are likely many teams that are believed to have serious interest in Tanaka but are waffling on the potential price tag. With the $20MM posting fee split up over two years, the cost could be a little bit easier to swallow.

[o2cui2i]

At what point would you want AA to duck out of the Tanaka sweepstakes?

 

I'm thinking the max we should go is 5 years and 100 million + 20 million posting fee. It's obviously alot - but we might be able to convince him to only take 5 years so he can get back on the market at age 30.

 

I still think the Cubs are going to offer him something crazy like 7 years and 140 million.

 

it might be time for AA to shelve his 5 tear max. he has hinted at this over the off season "if the right deal comes up"

 

risk reward is pretty even at this point. Jays need to win soon to keep the fans coming out. If Rogers doesn't see profits continue to rise the evil circle will start and the jays will start an ugly rebuild.

[Frenchsoup]

i wouldn't worry about the years to much as your getting the guy in his prime years and the more years you go the the less the annual value ie. 5yrs x20m +20m = 120 AAV =24m where as 7yrs x20m+20m= 160m AAV=22.9m so the more years your willing to go it gets a bit cheaper. Plus in 4 or 5 years that deal could look like a bargain.

[G-Snarls]

it might be time for AA to shelve his 5 tear max. he has hinted at this over the off season "if the right deal comes up"

 

risk reward is pretty even at this point. Jays need to win soon to keep the fans coming out. If Rogers doesn't see profits continue to rise the evil circle will start and the jays will start an ugly rebuild.

 

Yep. He pretty much has to spend. And he can buy pitching. But do you go Tanaka 6 years 120M plus 20M posting or Jiminez for 4 years 56M. That's a LOT more money for a guy who with very probably be better. How much better?? No one really knows...

[Angrioter]

Ubaldo 4/55M Over Tanaka 6Ys/102M+20 posting

[Ziggyy108]

Ubaldo 4/55M Over Tanaka 6Ys/102M+20 posting

 

sign both .......