Is AA a Good GM?

[Chappy]

There has been plenty of criticism against AA, especially since last winter. I'm curious to see what everyone thinks of AA overall. This includes what he inherited and what he has done with this franchise. Let's consider everything since he took over.

[flafson]

Time will tell.

[fatcowxlive]

I feel 50/50 leaning towards bad right now considering his whole career.

 

On one hand he had a great mindset to start from the beginning. He dumped Wells for good package (shame that we didn't keep Napoli), took a closer by the name of Brandon Morrow and turned him into a great starter, got a great package for a Halladay who didn't want to stay here (not his fault that Drabek and Gose aren't exactly preforming as they were projected to preform, his fault for not keeping TDA) and has signed Bautista and Encarnacion to cheap long term deals, all while rebuilding the farm from scratch and abusing the FA draft compensation, to the point that it influenced the way the draft compensation is thanks to the new CBA.

 

Now here's the down side: ever since the Happ trade, and Rogers gave him a boat load of money to spend, it changed the way he thought. He burned his hard work he's put into the farm for Happ, Buherle, Dickey, Reyes, Johnson and Bonifacio. It's sad just writing about this, but he chose to go this way, and so far he's not doing anything this off season to justify us jays fans to believe we can go for it, especially when we see the Yankees and Red Sox spend the way they have been spending in the East, and the way Seattle, Texas and A's have been bolstering their teams, limiting the chance for the 2 wild card spots.

[fatcowxlive]

Fatcow sign up here:

breakingbluedynasty.proboards.net

 

Link is wrong I think? Taking me to a dead page

[Chappy]

Define good. Good compared to his average peer? Yes. Good compared to people who should be qualified to do his job? No.

 

What is your rationale for those who can do his job? It's easy to say many can, but reality is few can.

[Abomination]

I think he's above average personally, and I think will further improve (until he takes over for Beeston, at which point we will have to break in a new GM all over again).

[TwistedLogic]

The problem with a front office being as quiet as theirs is, is that I don't think we know enough to fairly judge him. I know many, many people will disagree with me here but that's how I feel. The Jays situation is one of the most unique in baseball when you think about how rich their owners are, how conservative they are when it comes to spending, the current policies in place (not offering FA's enough money/years), the people at the root of those policies (Beeston, Rogers?), the limitations (AL East, turf, Canada, tax, etc), the long history of mediocrity, all of these things and so many other factors come together to make the Jays situation one that is impossible to understand outside of the front office. We never know how much of what is AA's fault, how much of what is Beeston's fault and how much of what is Rogers' fault. That's probably why we, as a fanbase, ultimately end up crucifying everybody. The GM is incompetent, the President and owner are incompetent, the coaching staff is incompetent, the manager is incompetent, the players are incompetent, our writers are incompetent, the stadium is incompetent, the fanbase itself is incompetent, etc, etc, etc.

 

We can pretend to know what goes on behind the curtain just to feel entitled or important or controversial or to try and validate our opinions, but at the end of the day it's just a bunch of hot air. We don't know what obstacles the GM has to deal with when enticing free agents to come here, we don't know who really is behind those policies of not offering too much to free agents, we don't know if any other GM in the same position would have been able to do any better than Anthopoulos did. We can pretend like we have the information to make that judgement, but the plain and simple reality is that we don't. At the end of the day, Anthopoulos is just the primary whipping boy (as are most general managers) and he will be held responsible for almost everything relating to the Jays, whether justly or unjustly.

[Atothe]

Daniels and Ryan are most definitely better then AA. No uestion about it and the dumbest thing Dipoto has done is give Hamilton a 5 year contract. On second thought trading Segura and re upping Aybar was a bad decision.

[Cooler Heads Prevail]

He's better then JPR but I haven't been impressed with him since the Marlins trade was finalized. Not because that trade was bad ( hindsight is nice and I liked the idea he was willing to invest in a winner ), but the Mets trade was an overpay ( surely Syndegaard could have been kept; no need to lose Buck ) and how he reacted in the season when s*** hit the fan was unimpressive. When Reyes got hurt he failed to react, when they had pitchers go down he failed to react, and when the trade deadline approached there were numerous buy or sell possibilities at that time that he failed to find. If they were supposably waiting for the offseason well nothing much has occurred since so the plan seems incomplete all along. Surely they must have known if any starting pitchers or catchers were interested and available.

 

In contrast to AA, I really like how Nonis has operated. And the Raptors guy hasn't been around long but he's damn impressive so far. Leafs have a cap to deal with and had a very poor roster a few years ago. Raptors had a lack of talent, some bad contracts, and an even bigger problem attracting players to Toronto then the Jays. In contrast, AA had some talent already on the roster and a lot of budget to work with. So his performance looks bad to me for a while now.

[ElNik2013]

He's below average to me right now. It's been really bad beginning with the Happ trade plus he held onto Lyons and Oliver that season. His performance prior to the Happ trade saves him and some good moves would put him above average. However, a couple more bad moves could drop him to the bottom of the heap.

[Stangstag]

Daniels and Ryan are most definitely better then AA. No uestion about it and the dumbest thing Dipoto has done is give Hamilton a 5 year contract. On second thought trading Segura and re upping Aybar was a bad decision.

 

Haha. Oh yeah, the Pujols contract is GREAT. Nothing wrong there.

[Stangstag]

Is AA a good GM?

 

Short answer: no.

 

Long answer: no.

[kcjaysfan]

Is AA a good GM?

 

Short answer: no.

 

Long answer: no.

 

http://assets.nydailynews.com/polopoly_fs/1.1236049!/img/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/landscape_635/dickey.jpg

[Boxcar]

Amaro

Jack Z

Dombrowski

Cashman

Towers (now)

Moore

Daniels (after this offseason)

Ryan (but did just dump Doumit)

Colletti (Dodgers should be an absolute dynasty with the payroll and cash)

Dipoto

 

Daniels (after this offseason)

Ryan (but did just dump Doumit)

Dombrowski

Cashman

 

All four of these I would strongly disagree with, and Dipoto is really a victim of circumstance since Arte Moreno continues to assert his dumn influence. How can you possibly say Dombrowski is worse than AA? Nothing he's done has indicated that. I think AA is on a similar tier as Dayton Moore.

[Boxcar]

What we know about AA:

 

- He evaluates everyone, including established Major League players based on a 2-8 subjective scouting scale which, in the case of a player he is interested in, is established over the course of an incredibly small sample size.

- Does not like using a computer.

- Surrounds himself with old school idiots (not idiots BECAUSE they are old school, per se.)

- Does not understand the concept of adding wins (as evidenced by his tunnel vision with pitching.)

- Does not understand the failure rate of high school pitchers, as evidenced by the fact that he keeps f***ing taking them in the draft.

- Has a guy with a biology degree leading his stats department.

- Created a FO culture that is resistant and hostile towards statistical evaluation.

 

Not sure if I missed anything. I think a lot of people want to blame Beeston (who is also an idiot) for AA's many shortcomings, but the truth is that he owns the vast majority of his decisions. The only things he does particularly well are contract negotiations and the fact that he isn't a loudmouth like JPR or Amaro.

[Angrioter]

A one-eyed is a king in the blind's world. Alex is a MG above average, because most MG's (Sometimes product on the circumstances) are/look like stupid.

 

The group of "good GM's" is very small, and Alex doesn't belong to them.

[Angrioter]

What we know about AA:

 

- He evaluates everyone, including established Major League players based on a 2-8 subjective scouting scale which, in the case of a player he is interested in, is established over the course of an incredibly small sample size.

- Does not like using a computer.

- Surrounds himself with old school idiots (not idiots BECAUSE they are old school, per se.)

- Does not understand the concept of adding wins (as evidenced by his tunnel vision with pitching.)

- Does not understand the failure rate of high school pitchers, as evidenced by the fact that he keeps f***ing taking them in the draft.

- Has a guy with a biology degree leading his stats department.

- Created a FO culture that is resistant and hostile towards statistical evaluation.

 

Not sure if I missed anything. I think a lot of people want to blame Beeston (who is also an idiot) for AA's many shortcomings, but the truth is that he owns the vast majority of his decisions. The only things he does particularly well are contract negotiations and the fact that he isn't a loudmouth like JPR or Amaro.

 

You described very well the Jack Z's curriculum or service sheet.

[G-Snarls]

we don't know if any other GM in the same position would have been able to do any better than Anthopoulos did.

 

This is the best point made so far

 

I'm sure some guys like Friedman or Beane might have made some shrewd moves putting this team in a better position right now, but honestly, I wonder how much better. My gut feeling says a perennial mid-place team over the past couple years but not a champion one. Maybe one poised to break out now but who knows.

 

You have to consider that AA is up against a lot:

 

- Inherited a decimated farm system

 

- Clearly has higher ups that meddle with what he can and can't do

 

- Runs a team that has difficulty attracting free agents these days (Canada, dollars, 20 years with no winning, 5 year max contracts, AL East deters pitchers, etc etc). This is critical. Now Tampa does well despite not being able to afford top free agents. But Red Sox and Yankees have had success in large part because they CAN and DO.

 

- Is in the toughest division in baseball

 

- Has had freakishly bad luck with team (and especially pitcher) health. Record number of players/days on DL the past 2 years especially with KEY players like JJ, Morrow and Bautista

 

Is he a top tier GM? No. He lacks some understanding of what a complete team is. He undervalued health and defense. But I don't think he's as bad as the majority on here THINK he is. Though I totally understand (and share) the frustration after the disaster that was 2013.

[xposbrad]

This is probably his make or break year. All the AA fanboys on the board will have to accept that maybe it's not just 'bad luck' when a pattern forms and the Jays finish under .500 or miss the playoffs again, which seems like it most likely will happen. All his small high reward trades with relievers were completely wiped out when he gutted the team and built it around ageing pitchers and a high payroll that most likely won't be too competitive.

 

So, considering I'm extremely unsatisfied with the state of the team and its future, I would say he's not a good GM. If Beane/Friedman had a 135m payroll, just imagine the team they would assemble, those guys are good GMs. AA is just a fart in the wind.

[Smokey]

He lacks some understanding of what a complete team is.

 

The way I see it, Alex's lack of understanding of what makes a complete team is precisely the reason why he's not fit for the job. There's no doubt that he's done some positive things earlier on during his tenure when the pressure of winning wasn't strong... but when it comes to putting it all together, he has failed miserably. IMO there's simply no excuse for a team who's expanding its budget by $40+ million and pushing all their chips in to have such glaring issues with depth. Giving 51 starts to guys who were not even on the team's radar at the beginning of the season is not just a result of bad luck, it's a result of poor planing. Trading away the two SS in the system to bring in Reyes to play on the turf and relying on scrap pieces to fill the void when he's injured is also a symptom of the same problem.

 

The more disappointing part for me is that he doesn't even seem to have learned a lesson for those mistakes, and although with Hutch and Stroman the team is in a better position as far as SP is concerned, there are still huge issues with the team's lack of positional depth, particularly in the middle IF.

 

Overall, I'm sure there are plenty of GM's who are in fact worse than AA but that doesn't concern me much. What I care about is if he is capable of turning this group into a legitimate championship caliber team and I think the answer to that is a resounding NO at this point.

Edited December 22, 2013 by Smokey

[GD]

I think his peaks have been so high and his valleys so low that if you average it all out, he's been a pretty average GM. Of course, he's bad right now, and used to be good, but I think if you consider all of them, he's average.

[leaffie]

I would consider him above average. As mentioned above, he took over a club that had a decimated farm system, and rebuilt it. He made some terrific trades, Morrow, Lawrie etc. He had some boots, Napoli, but all GM's have those. He has more to deal with than most GM's, in that it is difficult to get FA's to sign here. Each year, he has given the fans more to get excited about. His job is to move this club forward, and even though some might not like how he moved it, there can be no doubt that last off season, was probably the most exciting and hopeful that this club has seen in 20 years.

 

I didn't like the Dickey trade, but he needed a #1 pitcher, and he went and got one, and got him on a good contract. Compared to the prices that average pitchers are getting this off season, the Dickey contract is a deal. The question should be if there had been no devastating injuries last year, would there have finally been playoffs in TO after 20 years. Most experts had them as WS favourites before the season started.

 

If they had done nothing and continued on the rebuilding path, where would the team have been today. They would still have all their prospects, 70% of them never making the majors. According to some studies 3 of 4 pitching prospects fail. So far, none of the traded prospects are looking like a big mistake. Syndergaard, probably will make the majors, D'Arnaud is a question mark with regards to his health, but if the team had made the playoffs, would giving them up be worth it? That is what AA had to weigh. He said all along, that prospects were collateral, and he would use them. Would the team without Reyes, Dickey, Buerhle, Cabrera have any hope at the playoffs this year?

 

As far as Beeston is concerned, there is not a single person on this board that has any idea how much influence on AA, he has been. My personal opinion is not as much as most believe. But I could be just as wrong as anyone on that.

 

And for our position right now, I think this club is going to be much better than most think. If not, AA will be dumping contracts at the deadline, for a lot of good young prospects. According to more than one expert our lower levels are swimming with talent, and when he adds to the farm with the trades, we will be in the same position we were in before , just a year and a half later.

 

He gave the team a chance, and that is all that most fans ask for.

[TBJ12]

I'm extremely unsatisfied with the state of the team and its future, I would say he's not a good GM. If Beane/Friedman had a 135m payroll, just imagine the team they would assemble, those guys are good GMs. AA is just a fart in the wind.

 

Please explain to me why the future of the team looks so bad.

[Chappy]

So, considering I'm extremely unsatisfied with the state of the team and its future, I would say he's not a good GM. If Beane/Friedman had a 135m payroll, just imagine the team they would assemble, those guys are good GMs. AA is just a fart in the wind.

 

You assume they would operate in the same manner with a bigger payroll.

[Chappy]

Considering where this team was when he started and where they are now, we are better off overall.

[xposbrad]

Please explain to me why the future of the team looks so bad.

 

Most of the top prospects are in low levels in the minors, meaning, they can go from decent to average very quick. There are no real positional players in the minors. I look at the Yanks/Red Sox as being pretty decent for the next couple of years in our division. That's why. I see an organization that believes it is in win now mode, but won't make the completing moves to do so, instead of trading certain players for assets that could help the team in the next couple of years because it is probably the best thing to do since they aren't going to sign any FAs. I see a team that will most likely finish in second to last in the division this year barring any other moves. I could go on and on, but at the end of the day, when the season ends and the results speak for themselves, then perhaps AA will recognize that he needs to make some changes.

[xposbrad]

Considering where this team was when he started and where they are now, we are better off overall.

 

Perhaps, but not where they should be. Which is the point. A slight improvement given the huge increase in payroll is no accomplishment.

[JaysAllMighty]

AA is a workhorse, lives and breaths baseball 24/7. A workaholic. I like that. But, he's young and cocky of his own intelligence thinking he can be smarter then anyone. He needs to learn more about finesse on how to handle other GMs in a respectful way.

 

Many GMs are simply staying away from him in fear of being ridiculed in a one sided trade. He needs to get back in the game and being able to make reasonable trades with them.

 

I thought we had a chance last year but we were doomed by all the injuries. This coming season may be a nice contending surprise for all of us.... I hope.

[xposbrad]

Lol, nope. I've explained this many times over the past few months. I really don't believe that AA admits failure at the trade deadline. He has a self proclaimed "3(recently upped to 5?) year window of contention." If the FO truly believes that we have that "window" to compete, why on earth would we sell our core "compete" pieces in year 1.5/5?

 

That would be AA admitting failure, and it would cost him his job.

 

That window story is BS. I thought it was true but the Yanks can retool in 1 offseason just by outspending everyone. The Jays need to get out of that mentality and start thinking of a plan that balances winning with intelligent baseball moves. Going for it all is not going to work when the team is still missing pieces, everyone here can agree.

[Angrioter]

We need this ----->

or