Proposed trade with the Phils

[Frenchsoup]

I've been thinking to myself about the trade possibilities and who lines up with us and i think that the Phillies are a perfect match. There in a state of flux and want to win but seem to be running out of money and have a lot of holes on there roster(bullpen,starting pitching). So here is my proposed deal that would help both teams.

 

To the Blue Jays:

 

Cliff Lee (25M)- Lee has a no trade clause to 21 teams which makes this a little difficult but he would serve as our ace and clear a ton of payroll for the Phils in the process.

 

Ben Revere (1.5m arb eligible)- Revere is a gold glove defender in CF and a prototypical lead off man with team control through 2017. With this move it would change our lineup sliding Reyes in the 2hole which would be a beautiful thing.

 

Kevin Fransden(1.3 arb eligible)- A utility man who crushes LHP and would be a nice cheap platoon mate for Lind. Also gives a little insurance at 3rd base in case Lawrie goes down.

 

So that's about 28M coming to the Jays.

 

 

To the Phillies:

 

J.A. Happ (5.4m)-Happ has a history with Philly and the need some good depth at the mid-back of there rotation.

 

Colby Rasmus (6.5m)- Rasmus coming off a very good year has never had his value higher. Saying that, his inflated BABIP looks like it was a key ingredient to that, also the almost 30% k rate is really troubling.

 

Steve Delabar(500k)- Delabar is a cheap valuable 8th or 9th inning guy and with Philly ready to move on from Papelbon he could be a nice piece for them. He's also been a beneficiary of the weighted ball program with the likes of Mcgowan,Cecil,Jansen*. I asterisked Jansen because of the shoulder and elbow problems he was having last year i don't think the program took full effect.

 

Sergio Santos(3.75m)- I love Santos stuff and think he turned a corner with his control to become an elite closer. But there is the injury history and he will get big raises in the next 2 years of 6m and 8m and that's a risk reward i don't want to take.

 

Kyle Drabek(500k)- Another past Philly native with great stuff and stepped up his command also. He has options which is always a bonus and has great upside, i think the Phils would love to snag him up

 

Sean Nolin(prospect)- Nolin had another great year in the minors. He will eat innings and has good command but the stuff might not fit for bluejays in the AL East or at Rogers Center.

 

Daniel Norris/DJ Davis(prospects)- I am giving Philly the choice of the arm or the speedy CF, Norris had a strong finish to this year and is closer to majors whereas Davis is really far off but has a ton upside.

 

So that's about 16.5 mill going to Phils so there saving 11-12 mill along with filling a bunch of holes on there roster.

 

 

Where does that leave the jays?

 

VS LHP VS RHP

 

Revere Revere (1.5m)

Reyes Reyes (16m)

Bautista Bautista (14m)

Edwin Edwin (9m)

Melky Lind (7m)

Lawrie Melky (8m)

Navarro Lawrie (500k)

Fransden Navarro (3m)

Izturis Goins (500k)

 

 

Starters

Lee(25m)

Dickey(12m)

Morrow(8m)

Buerhle(19m)

Redmond or FA (500k)

 

Bullpen

Jansen(4m)

Jeffress(500k)

Loup(500k)

L.Perez(500k)

Cecil(1m)

Esmil(1m)

Mcgowan(1.25m)

 

Bench

Izzy(3m)

Thole(1.25m)

Fransden(1.3m)

Reed Johnson(1.5m)

 

Depth

Stroman

Hutchison

Deck

Wagner

Jenkins

Juan Perez

Stilson

Rob Rasmussen

 

Total Payroll 139.8 M

 

 

I really like Reed because he can play all 3 positions and smash leftys and would probably come back to Toronto. Also if there were an injury you can form a nice platoon of Gose and Reed. This overall trade destroys a bit of our depth but saying that i don't expect Nolin to be effective at the major league level and both Happ and Drabek have some injury problems. There would still be a little a room to play with as to, you could still go after a Ubaldo if u wanted to commit to 152-155m payroll.

Edited December 21, 2013 by Frenchsoup

[Angrioter]

Lee, Revere and Fransden for Rasmus, Happ, Santos, Delabar, Drabek, Nolin and Davis/Norris

 

NO wayyy

[G-Snarls]

Think smaller

[Angrioter]

Revere doesn't fit with the profile of the new CF. He's like Usain Bolt with a glove.

[Frenchsoup]

Revere doesn't fit with the profile of the new CF. He's like Usain Bolt with a glove.

 

 

I can't get over this play

[flafson]

Sounds like the money dump we had with Miami, why should it pan out any different?

[LunchBox]

I'd also like to single out Nolin as a guy many aren't giving enough credit. He has a legit shot at becoming a sturdy #3/4 starter and the one awful MLB start doesn't change that. People keep adding him as a throw-in to their blockbuster proposals. He's much more than that.

 

Totally agree. He absolutely dominated AA this year, but was 24 years old. That's an overly conservative approach by the organization as far as I'm concerned. He absolutely needs to pitch the majority of this season in the majors, but that probably won't happen. Odds are Happ would slightly outperform him out of the #5 spot in 2014, but Nolin has really forced the issue more than the front office seems willing to admit.

 

I think you're overestimating his ceiling though, he's more of a #4/5 starter IMO.

[xposbrad]

2 team 10 player trades happen very frequently. But, I don't know how to put this lightly without possibly offending you. That trade is retarded.

 

Santos/Delabar could fetch decent players, and so could Rasmus. I just don't know where or why you came up with this horrendous trade. You basically add 1 SP and killed the BP and took away some decent prospects and a solid OF. Makes 0 sense.

[connorp]

Bad trade is bad

[GNick]

Lee has no-trade clause...doubt he will waive it for us

[LunchBox]

Putting aside everything else that's wrong with this trade, why does anyone think Ben Revere is good? I'd start Gose and let Revere ride the bench.

 

Someone is probably going to feel the need to point out that Revere has been a 3 WAR player in the past. From what I've seen, his base running and defence are horribly overrated. He's Juan Pierre Light, not good.

Edited December 21, 2013 by LunchBox

[Frenchsoup]

Rasmus for 1 year is a superior asset to Lee.

 

lol Serious?

[Frenchsoup]

Yeah but Rasmus is an enigma could give you 4 war or 1.5 war.

[Brenner]

Yeah but Rasmus is an enigma could give you 4 war or 1.5 war.

 

Actually at this point he could have a terrible year at the plate is still be a 2 war player, and with the same odds could have a terrific year and be a 6 maybe even 7 war player. I would consider 4-5 war very much likely in a full season.

 

He is probably the exact type of player you'd want to spend the money to extend. You should be very comfortable with a player where you can expect at least 2 war on a bad year, an average of 4 war a year, and the potential for some 5+ war seasons. With the type of contracts Ellsbury and Choo have got, I would expect it to cost somewhere around 5 x 15-17.5 to get it done.

[DuckDuckGose]

Yep, Lees contract makes only around $6M in surplus, Rasmus will be more than that in one year.

 

asset value doesn't equal surplus value though. Lee is the more valuable asset regardless of Colby being projected to provide more surplus value or not.

[connorp]

asset value doesn't equal surplus value though. Lee is the more valuable asset regardless of Colby being projected to provide more surplus value or not.

 

Very true but when your team is under a payroll cramp..that has to be taken into account too..

That said, as I mentioned in another thread I hate Colby and would do that deal no prob

[dineke]

Lee's a god, f*** rasmus.

[kcjaysfan]

Ben Revere (1.5m arb eligible)- Revere is a gold glove defender in CF and a prototypical lead off man with team control through 2017. With this move it would change our lineup sliding Reyes in the 2hole which would be a beautiful thing.

 

This is a ridiculous idea. Sure he hits for a decent average, has dat speed, and doesn't strike out a lot, but his OBP is .324 over the last three seasons (1370 PAs). Over the same time period (1721 PAs), Reyes has an OBP of .361. Why is it a beautiful thing to bump Reyes to batting second?

[Chappy]

This is a ridiculous idea. Sure he hits for a decent average, has dat speed, and doesn't strike out a lot, but his OBP is .324 over the last three seasons (1370 PAs). Over the same time period (1721 PAs), Reyes has an OBP of .361. Why is it a beautiful thing to bump Reyes to batting second?

 

I wouldn't mess with Reyes at leadoff, he fits perfectly in that role. If anything Revere would be an ideal #9 hitter in our lineup.

[DuckDuckGose]

Yes because some GM's are dumb, so the market isn't what it should be.

 

No it's because you are valuing the 6th win a player provides equivalently to the first which is very wrong.

[DuckDuckGose]

Very true but when your team is under a payroll cramp..that has to be taken into account too..

That said, as I mentioned in another thread I hate Colby and would do that deal no prob

 

Payroll needs to be considered but Rasmus will only be cheap for one more season.

[DuckDuckGose]

They're both projected for similar wins in 2014, how does this make a difference? Again, a win is a win, but it matters who is replaced. It's not that a 6th win is better, it's what you replace with it.

 

No they aren't Rasmus projects around 3 WAR, Lee 5. Additionally depending on who you ask the value of the 2 projected surplus wins Lee is expected to provide is worth more than the twenty million he is owed. Meaning the elite wins Lee provides may actually provide more surplus than a 3WAR player at the end of his arb years.

[Abomination]

No they aren't Rasmus projects around 3 WAR, Lee 5. Additionally depending on who you ask the value of the 2 projected surplus wins Lee is expected to provide is worth more than the twenty million he is owed. Meaning the elite wins Lee provides may actually provide more surplus than a 3WAR player at the end of his arb years.

 

According to fangraphs, Rasmus is projected at 3.3 WAR next year (on both), and Lee is 3.8 (steamer) and 4.2 (oliver)

[DuckDuckGose]

According to fangraphs, Rasmus is projected at 3.3 WAR next year (on both), and Lee is 3.8 (steamer) and 4.2 (oliver)

 

Lee has never had a healthy 4WAR season since 2006. Sometimes you need to look at what they're projecting and think critically. Look at Lee in specific; why would his k rate drop? Why would his BB rate go up? This isn't a trend in Lee's stats but it is being projected based on age. Additionally Steamer is projecting Lee at 193 IP which is nonsensical.

[Abomination]

Lee has never had a healthy 4WAR season since 2006. Sometimes you need to look at what they're projecting and think critically. Look at Lee in specific; why would his k rate drop? Why would his BB rate go up? This isn't a trend in Lee's stats but it is being projected based on age. Additionally Steamer is projecting Lee at 193 IP which is nonsensical.

 

We are talking about Cliff Lee, right?

 

2008: 7.1 WAR

2009: 6.5 WAR

2010: 7.0 WAR

2011: 6.5 WAR

2012: 4.9 WAR

2013: 5.1 WAR

[DuckDuckGose]

Where is Rasmus 3 and Lee 5?

 

Going on memory, i looked when the Lee rumouts first popped up. Im on my phone at the gfs family now though. Its too difficult to change sources. Fangraphs (aka Steamer and Oliver) works well on my phone so I have the stats from th heir maon player page anything else will have to wait.

[DuckDuckGose]

Yes nonsensically high.

 

Huh? Explanation?

[DuckDuckGose]

We are talking about Cliff Lee, right?

 

2008: 7.1 WAR

2009: 6.5 WAR

2010: 7.0 WAR

2011: 6.5 WAR

2012: 4.9 WAR

2013: 5.1 WAR

 

That was my point. If youre projecting Lee at 4 WAR next year you should reevaluate what you're projecting.

[Abomination]

Going on memory, i looked when the Lee rumouts first popped up. Im on my phone at the gfs family now though. Its too difficult to change sources. Fangraphs (aka Steamer and Oliver) works well on my phone so I have the stats from th heir maon player page anything else will have to wait.

 

If you think Lee hasn't had 4 WAR in a season since 2006, either Fangraphs isn't working well on your phone or you're getting the xFIP column confused with the WAR column.

[DuckDuckGose]

I believe he meant under 4.

 

Yes thanks JFaS. Sorry my phone is slow.