Around Baseball 2014

[Chappy]

Vik , I said he isn't a #5 on a good team and the 5.4 million he is eating up is preventing adding wins in other areas

 

He provided 1.2 WAR last season in 18 starts, had he not suffered that freak injury, it likely would have been 2 WAR. That is solid value for what he is getting paid.

[DuckDuckGose]

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=0

 

Look at all the remaining FA starters projected for an ERA of 4.5 or less. I wonder how many sign for less than $1 million guaranteed.

 

Aaron Laffey? Don't think there are too many other options at that price.

[DuckDuckGose]

I get the giving up the assets part, but it's not like he gave up anything of any real significance. I think too many people over value mediocre prospects on this forum. Value is one thing, but let's see if he even provides any before calling that deal a fail.

 

At the end of the day the trade was Wojc, Perez and Comer for Happ. Comer is the only guy that may come back to bite AA but he's so far away and carries a ton of risk.

[ElNik2013]

My point was that they shouldn't have. The season was over. If the rotation is in shambles, make a waiver claim or two and run the clock out on the year.

 

 

This franchise cares a lot about optics even if it means making at least a questionable move. I remember Bautista being quoted about the team having promised him that they'd do what's necessary to compete and even Farrell saying something about wanting a starter. Making a trade for a guy like Happ can also help them tell the casuals that they're trying to do something. Plus, since the rotation had so many holes, even a guy like Happ might seem appealing.

[Chappy]

This franchise cares a lot about optics even if it means making at least a questionable move. I remember Bautista being quoted about the team having promised him that they'd do what's necessary to compete and even Farrell saying something about wanting a starter. Making a trade for a guy like Happ can also help them tell the casuals that they're trying to do something. Plus, since the rotation had so many holes, even a guy like Happ might seem appealing.

 

Currently Happ is our #4 SP.

[kgm1]

Oh I agree that Happ is fine as a 5th starter, I'm just not a fan of spending $5.4 million on him. I know, $/WAR says he's worth it, but that production can be replaced internally and the money could have been put to better use IMO. Do we lose anything with Redmond, Rogers, Hutchison, or Stroman over Happ? Hell, invite a few starters to ST on tryouts and one or two are probably good enough to do what Happ does.

 

Fine as a 5th starter on an average team but not a playoff team and 5.4 mil for a 5th starter when we have lots of options in the 5th spot and 4 holes Glaring holes elsewhere doesn't make sense . That 5.4 mil early in the off season spent well could have added 1 to 2 wins .

[ElNik2013]

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=0

 

Look at all the remaining FA starters projected for an ERA of 4.5 or less. I wonder how many sign for less than $1 million guaranteed.

 

 

 

They signed Redmond last year to a minor league deal and he did as well.

[DuckDuckGose]

I wouldn't be surprised to see Bedard, Matsuzaka, Harang, Karstens, Axelrod, Garcia, Francis, or Saunders get a ST invite. I'd take any one of those guys on a ST invite before Happ @ 5.4.

 

There are a couple names I think they should still be in on but, scrap all the guys with huge injury concerns. The last thing the Jays need is another arm hanging on by a thread.

[Chappy]

Fine as a 5th starter on an average team but not a playoff team and 5.4 mil for a 5th starter when we have lots of options in the 5th spot and 4 holes Glaring holes elsewhere doesn't make sense . That 5.4 mil early in the off season spent well could have added 1 to 2 wins .

 

Your speaking as though all those options were available at the time he was signed to that extension. Happ is not overpaid by any means. To add to that you talk about playoff teams, but are we even that right now? We might be close but we're not yet in the conversation until we get an upgrade to our rotation. As of right now Happ is our # 4, without him we would be even worse. It's nice to think our internal options will be better, but chances are they may not.

[ElNik2013]

Currently Happ is our #4 SP.

 

Yeah, but if AA was fine with this, he wouldn't be focusing his whole off season on improving the rotation.

[Chappy]

There are a couple names I think they should still be in on but, scrap all the guys with huge injury concerns. The last thing the Jays need is another arm hanging on by a thread.

 

Apparently lottery tickets are the way to go.

[Chappy]

Yeah, but if AA was fine with this, he wouldn't be focusing his whole off season on improving the rotation.

 

And that has been quite obvious by none of his rotation upgrades. Not that I doubt he will improve the rotation, but I'm certain Happ will be in it come opening day.

[John_Havok]

I agree Happ's contract is not bad, but Hutchison in Happ's spot + 4.5 million to help upgrade 2b or another position would be a better scenario IMO.

[DuckDuckGose]

Apparently lottery tickets are the way to go.

 

The worst part is you'd be trying to win a scratcher instead of the powerball.

[DuckDuckGose]

I agree Happ's contract is not bad, but Hutchison in Happ's spot + 4.5 million to help upgrade 2b or another position would be a better scenario IMO.

 

If $5.4M stops Rogers from getting a decent 2B it's a crying shame and the fan base should be outraged. Wins 89-93 are the most valuable in baseball.

[ElNik2013]

And that has been quite obvious by none of his rotation upgrades. Not that I doubt he will improve the rotation, but I'm certain Happ will be in it come opening day.

 

I'm certain as well, I just meant that AA wants to add a top 3 starter and that would knock Happ down to the be the 5th starter.

[DuckDuckGose]

Hutchison in Happ's spot, and give Dylan Axelrod a minor league deal or something. Boom - your rotation hash't taken a hit and you have like $4.5 million to spend elsewhere.

 

Sign a front end guy first and I'd agree but not as things stand now. Hutch is going to get MLB innings whether he starts the year in AAA or the MLB. Having a guy with options and talent knocking on the door in AAA isn't a negative at all.

[ElNik2013]

I agree Happ's contract is not bad, but Hutchison in Happ's spot + 4.5 million to help upgrade 2b or another position would be a better scenario IMO.

 

 

I think the issue is more Buehrle's contract though. Let's say Buehrle was making between 10-14M, then there's your 5M, maybe more, for a 2B/SS.

[ElNik2013]

For what it's worth, I've thought for a while that if AA gets one of the FA pitchers, Happ could be traded with a reliever, hopefully for middle infielder.

[kgm1]

He provided 1.2 WAR last season in 18 starts, had he not suffered that freak injury, it likely would have been 2 WAR. That is solid value for what he is getting paid.

 

Vik ,I think we have 4 guys who could pitch as well as Happ in the 5th spot and Too many holes elsewhere but hell i hope you are right It not so much Happ I hate it is the 5.4 mil when Hutch/Redmond replaces those wins for 500 k .

 

Plus he has NO upside . I at least see potential upside from his replacements and 4.9 mil in savings . Right now I see the biggest value in trading Happ as the unloading of the contract . hopefully AA can get a B type prospect back .

[kgm1]

Your speaking as though all those options were available at the time he was signed to that extension. Happ is not overpaid by any means. To add to that you talk about playoff teams, but are we even that right now? We might be close but we're not yet in the conversation until we get an upgrade to our rotation. As of right now Happ is our # 4, without him we would be even worse. It's nice to think our internal options will be better, but chances are they may not.

 

Well I have to give you that one . We are far from a playoff team. we are an 81 to 84 win team with health and that is a huge question mark . Unlike most on this board I have no faith in Melky , Navarro , Goins or Happ and the bench is very 2nd rate . Assuming Morrow can make 30 starts is like believing in a lottery win .

 

Still the problem I have seen this year is lack of funds but even that is a moot point cause drunken sailors rule the Free agent market .

[Chappy]

I agree Happ's contract is not bad, but Hutchison in Happ's spot + 4.5 million to help upgrade 2b or another position would be a better scenario IMO.

 

Absolutely, but I'd rather have Happ than not. Everyone assumes if we didn't have Happ, we would spend that money on something else, I'm not certain that is true.

[Chappy]

Don't get me wrong, I wouldn't want any of those guys as more than a 6th or 7th guy. I'm just saying that they project to prevent runs about as effectively as Happ, and in some cases for like 10-20% of the cost.

 

I agree with you, I just think Happ has more value to this team than most give him credit for. Sure we have better depth for the coming season, but that depth has more value now. Without Happ everyone gets bumped up a notch and we essentially get weaker overall. The price tag for Happ is fair and I hate that people knock him and the organization for a reasonable contract.

[Chappy]

I think the issue is more Buehrle's contract though. Let's say Buehrle was making between 10-14M, then there's your 5M, maybe more, for a 2B/SS.

 

And the price to acquire him goes up as well. It's a two way street.

[Chappy]

I'm certain as well, I just meant that AA wants to add a top 3 starter and that would knock Happ down to the be the 5th starter.

 

In that case I agree.

[Chappy]

Vik ,I think we have 4 guys who could pitch as well as Happ in the 5th spot and Too many holes elsewhere but hell i hope you are right It not so much Happ I hate it is the 5.4 mil when Hutch/Redmond replaces those wins for 500 k .

 

Plus he has NO upside . I at least see potential upside from his replacements and 4.9 mil in savings . Right now I see the biggest value in trading Happ as the unloading of the contract . hopefully AA can get a B type prospect back .

 

Happ was solid last season. He got hurt and that didn't help his cause, but he is a solid option. As for upside, he doesn't need to have crazy upside if he can do the job we need him too, anything else is a bonus. If he gets hurt again, we have the depth to follow, but get rid of him and that depth is deluded and so are our chances.

[Chappy]

Well I have to give you that one . We are far from a playoff team. we are an 81 to 84 win team with health and that is a huge question mark . Unlike most on this board I have no faith in Melky , Navarro , Goins or Happ and the bench is very 2nd rate . Assuming Morrow can make 30 starts is like believing in a lottery win .

 

Still the problem I have seen this year is lack of funds but even that is a moot point cause drunken sailors rule the Free agent market .

 

Ken, I think your being a bit harsh. Melky has a track record and his injures lead me to believe he will be better. Happ is decent and that is all we can ask, if we're asking for more than we don't deserve to even be considered a contender if we are even that. Finally, Navarro was better than JP in 2013. He might not be anything special, but his most recent performance suggests he is an upgrade. As for Goins, who knows, lol.

[Chappy]

I don't know that I'd use "solid" to describe him. 4.61 ERA and 0.8 RA9 WAR since being acquired.

 

Not great, but a healthy season can change things rather quickly. Not to mention that he can be traded and his contract may be attractive to several teams.

[Chappy]

How many teams are interested in a $5+ million 4.5+ ERA guy who can be relied on to neither start a full season nor pitch deep into games?

 

The Jays?

[Chappy]

The Jays?

 

But in all seriousness, do you really think he is overpaid compared to what slightly better alternatives are getting?