Around Baseball 2014

[Nox]

Ya, exactly Zeros. It's becoming a ranking system for fans (because that's the kind of data they want for fantasy leagues and couch GMing) and it shouldn't be used that way.

 

It absolutely is intended to be used as a ranking system. In fact, the ranking is the most relevant part.

[connorp]

There are maybe 5 MLB teams that have something as good as Steamer in house on a per inning basis. Projecting health is something where they have a leverage-able information advantage but what's available publicly is pretty good for healthy performance.

 

I guess conceptually it just doesnt seem hard. Hire a blue chip MIT-type kid who possesses originality in thought,

Im Sure theres plenty with exp in the field already..

Give him $150k or whareved to work FT+ and have him dig deeper. Maybe two of three guys.

As mentioned before with guys like Ellsbury..i think hes like Top 3 in all of mlb baseball the last 3 years in WAR/150 and Oliver has him hardly over 3 next season

[Nox]

Link to CONNORP projections?

 

I think these are them:

 

http://bit.ly/JQ78eu

[Nox]

Give him $150k or whareved to work FT+ and have him dig deeper.

 

There's the rub.

 

Also, baseball is a domain governed largely by mild, mild randomness. AKA it's pretty hard and it doesn't take genius level smart guys to give you good answers.

[connorp]

Link to CONNORP projections?

 

Ha. As im unemloyed with plenty of free time.. I will find some guys like Jacoby or Price that i think are projected at least 33-50% too low and post them for year end review

[Angrioter]

Link to JFaS projections: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AiKIdMktKhYNdElkcl9tOC1DY05ZZVN1cDg5c0dKR0E&usp=sharing#gid=0

 

R.A. Dickey 3.4

Mark Buehrle 1.0

Esmil Rogers 1.3

Brandon Morrow 1.3

J.A. Happ 1.2

 

8.2

 

Muy pesimista a mi parecer!!!

[G-Snarls]

Yrp

[connorp]

There's the rub.

 

Also, baseball is a domain governed largely by mild, mild randomness. AKA it's pretty hard and it doesn't take genius level smart guys to give you good answers.

 

Noone is a prophet..so it comes down to their reasoning. Any MIT kid could grasp the projection formula if they studied it.. But you'd be looking for someone to bring their own input to the table. Kind of like how a guy like JFAS does when he has the time. But hes only been doing it as a hobby only recently.. Didnt know FIP 18mos ago i think..theres prob some sharp mofos out there with this stuff

[connorp]

Actually going OT but that string theory studying and all the s*** like that are my downfall now. Im 10 years out of school from my MBA and never spent any leisure time in the business field. Mostly history, religious history.. Blah blah..No passion for business

 

I worked running mid scale hotels as a VP like Holiday Inns so now im totally behind the 8 ball. Was looking at financial analyst but i think i need to take a semester or two of school again to sharpen up

[GD]

FWIW I think if you graphed your projections in terms of probabilities and people could see the distribution of your projection it would be a very interesting blog post.

 

Agreed.

[DuckDuckGose]

It absolutely is intended to be used as a ranking system. In fact, the ranking is the most relevant part.

 

Maybe for fantasy leagues Nox but that's about it.

[Nox]

Maybe for fantasy leagues Nox but that's about it.

 

No, you're wrong.

 

All of these projection systems are designed to examine the relationships between players much more so than what their raw output is. To do the later requires a good deal of hand wavy work projecting where league wide offense is going which is really not of too much interest because the effect is almost always systemic. Projections are really only relevant in their own universe.

 

I don't even really get the overall point you're trying to make. Because these things have significant error bars on them we're supposed to ignore order? That doesn't make sense.

[G-Snarls]

[KingKat]

 

Abraham Lincoln was a good old man.

[DuckDuckGose]

No, you're wrong.

 

All of these projection systems are designed to examine the relationships between players much more so than what their raw output is. To do the later requires a good deal of hand wavy work projecting where league wide offense is going which is really not of too much interest because the effect is almost always systemic. Projections are really only relevant in their own universe.

 

I don't even really get the overall point you're trying to make. Because these things have significant error bars on them we're supposed to ignore order? That doesn't make sense.

 

Hypothetical scenario that is discussed daily on baseball boards;

 

Steamer projects 3 players;

 

Player A at 4 WAR

Player B at 3.7 WAR and

Player C at 3.5 WAR

 

it doesn't mean A>B>C it means that given the probabilities the best guess is A>B>C and there is a high probability the actual results will not reflect the projections or "rankings".

[KingKat]

Hypothetical scenario that is discussed daily on baseball boards;

 

Steamer projects 3 players;

 

Player A at 4 WAR

Player B at 3.7 WAR and

Player C at 3.5 WAR

 

it doesn't mean A>B>C it means that given the probabilities the best guess is A>B>C and there is a high probability the actual results will not reflect the projections or "rankings".

 

For the purposes of fantasy rankings, I would like rankings that are based on (Steamer or some composite mostly based on Steamer) that negatively adjusts for lower probabilities. I love the idea of taking my ego out of the equation alltogether and drafting based on projections but a probability adjustment is needed to make it work. Every year players with horrible floors get ranked quite high and I get burned by them.

[Nox]

it doesn't mean A>B>C

 

That's exactly what it's saying actually.

 

It's saying that given the information available to them, Steamer's best guess regarding these players' underlying true talent orders them like that.

 

Obviously their upcoming observed results may not order them like that.

Edited January 12, 2014 by Nox

[Abomination]

Looks like CarGo went under the knife, expected to need 2 months to recover, although should still be ready for opening day.

[DuckDuckGose]

That's exactly what it's saying actually.

 

It's saying that given the information available to them, Steamer's best guess regarding these players' underlying true talent orders them like that.

 

Obviously their upcoming observed results may not order them like that.

 

Nah man, it can give you an estimate of performance and career trajectories. That's it.

[Nox]

Nah man, it can give you an estimate of performance and career trajectories. That's it.

 

Of course it's an estimate. Nobody is saying that it isn't.

 

But what are they estimating? True talent and future performance measures are interchangeable in this regard (before non player specific adjustments are made to the outputs [park effects]).

[DuckDuckGose]

Of course it's an estimate. Nobody is saying that it isn't.

 

But what are they estimating? True talent and future performance measures are interchangeable in this regard (before non player specific adjustments are made to the outputs [park effects]).

 

A pretty good baseball player touched on this;

 

In theory there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice there is.

-Yogi Berra

[GD]

When does ZIPs projections come out Nox?

 

They've already started rolling out for some teams, I think.

[Angrioter]

http://i.imgur.com/IJB7Tv2.png

 

Very cool graph. The x is horizontal location of where the pitch crossed the plate. Y is "Pitch effectiveness", the number doesn't really mean anything of value to you. Home plate is approximately from -0.8 to 0.8 on the x axis.

 

This was all pitches by the Jays in 2013 (regardless of batter handedness, which is likely why it appears shifted over from the origin a tad since there are more RH hitters).

 

You can clearly see that pitches just off the plate are the most effective, with pitches in the middle of the zone being less effective than the edges.

 

Much depends on the pitcher's stuff.

 

X -,5 to ,5: good stuff guys like Janssen, Dickey, Delabar split

[Angrioter]

Rangers' Tanner Scheppers could start in place of Derek Holland

 

Santos for Choice --- Here we go!!

[DuckDuckGose]

Obviously it would have to be a larger deal but Odor would be the guy I'd target. Exactly the kind of player the Jays need in the system right now.

[Ziggyy108]

Santos for Choice --- Here we go!!

 

 

Love Santos, but id prob do that.

 

I was surprised they got him for so cheap from the A's

[GD]

Yankees sign Scott Sizemore. I encourage you all to go have a look at his Oliver projection. Lol.

[The Cats Ass]

Yankees sign Scott Sizemore. I encourage you all to go have a look at his Oliver projection. Lol.

 

Seems pretty optimistic. He has 2 games played over the past 2 years...

[Angrioter]

Chone Figgins wants to continue playing after sitting out all of 2013. He's working out for MLB teams this week in Tampa.

 

Russ Adams, boot that damn fishing pole, you have a chance in the bigs!!

[Nox]

A pretty good baseball player touched on this;

 

Again, the point you're trying to make is completely muddled.

 

Steamer's projections are their best guess at ranking players based on talent. Their guess and reality obviously differ but it still represents something more accurate than whatever any of our guts tell us.